Photo: Kyle Grantham

Orlando City SC went the distance with Bradley Carnell’s Philadelphia Union on Saturday, frustrating Philly into a nil-nil draw.

“Very tricky opponent tonight,” Carnell led with in his post-game presser. “Came here with a bit of vengeance in mind – with one idea, one gameplan, and that was to frustrate us.”

In a role reversal from their meeting on Match Day 1, the Union held 63% of the possession this time around, and tallying a staggering 21 shots – landing just 4 on frame. Shots were fired from all over the yard – sufficing to nothing more than an unfriendly homage to the ghosts of Brujos past.

Sprinkle in some quality-lacking chances in the final third, some high-octane pressures leading to fizzling attacks to taste, and maybe even whistles on soft fouls for spice….

“Frustating” is probably the recipe you would want to reference.

Yet, the Union certainly won the field tilt battle. And that does speak to how well the Union sustained pressure Saturday night – turning the screws on Orlando for much of the scrum.

(Attack zones metric from WhoScored.com)

The Boys in Blue were able to work into some great areas, often through the feet of the Union’s prized offseason signing.

Damiani’s second start

Carnell opted to slot Bruno Damiani into the second striker role, next to Tai Baribo, taking the place of Mikael Uhre. The manager has been running something of a rotation up top, due, in part, to Baribo missing time with International duty.

From the first minute, in and out of possession, Damiani’s presence was felt.

“Perfect,” said Carnell when asked of Damiani’s performance. “He put himself about. He did exactly what we needed. Had good combinations with Tai, Danny, and Quinny… He is very tough to play against – very difficult to mark, and he poses a threat with and without the ball.”

Particularly early in the match, Damiani did a fine job of connecting play around the penalty area. Within the first few minutes, he was at the forefront of creating high danger scoring opportunities with deft touches into dangerous areas.

This quick give-and-go with Nathan Harriel may seem elementary, but had potential to be a high-danger scoring chance. Unfortunately, Harriel cut back onto his right foot and opted for a shot, rather than the pin-point cross that we are accustomed to from Kai Wagner’s left boot.

Damiani was the match-leader in expected goals generated (xG) – working himself into great positions to get on the end of crosses. No Union chance topped his sliding point-blank effort off of a low Gazdag cross.

Of his 0.98 expected goals generated, 0.42 of which came on that one chance. He also led all players with 5 touches in the opponent’s penalty area.

In fact, after Saturday’s match, per fotmob.com, Bruno Damiani now leads MLS in xG per 90 minutes played.

He was even one Pierre-Luc Laauziere-esque  no call away from earning a penalty kick, on a play with eerily similar circumstances to the one that saw Jakob Glesnes called for a foul vs. Nashville, when the defender jumped into the back of Hany Mukhtar.

Damiani’s hard work defensively was part and parcel of a successful mission to pin Orlando into their own end. The striker added two excellently timed sliding tackles, where he won all-ball.  Questionably, both were called back for fouls – the second of which earned him a harsh caution.

Damiani led the lines valiantly.

“You need an anchor. He’s a bit of an anchor,” said Carnell.

Think of the impact Diego Costa’s feistiness and aggression provided Jose Mourinho, anchoring counter-attacking-focused Chelsea squads in the mid-2010s. At his apex, that impact is comparable to what Damiani can provide the Union.

In Damiani’s play in rotated minutes thus far, he has continued to show ability to connect passes and contribute to build-up, while working his tail off – doing so in an unselfish manner. He creates opportunities for not just himself, but also opens up the field for others.

Some more consistent minutes in Carnell’s system, and the chances he fluffed in this match will likely end up in the back of the ‘ol onion bag.

We may be underrating Kai Wagner

The Union were, yet again, without their star left back on Saturday. This was the second consecutive match that the German has missed, and his presence was felt equally in both matches.

Nathan Harriel assumed the left back role in this one, putting in an honorable effort to lockdown down right-winger Marco Pašalić. The Croatian gave the Union fits in their first meeting, yet Harriel held Pašalić to one total shot, and only two touches in the Union’s penalty area this time around.

The Union homegrown also had a nice day on ball, completing 91% of his passes, steering 10 of which into the final third.

Still, the drop off from Wagner to Harriel was apparent.

Mostly, it was noticed in the lack of a left-footed outside back on overlapping runs down the left. Harriel’s hesitance to drive the endline and cross with his left peg, made generating chances from crosses down the left almost non-existent.

Between Sullivan and Harriel, Philly were only able to log 2/10 successful crosses on the night. Wagner, by himself, has averaged 2.1 successful crosses on the season at a success rate of just over 21%.

The threat of Wagner’s stellar left-boot and crossing ability in overloads forces the opposing outside backs into binds – especially when Quinn can cut inside and drive shots on frame. Without the threat of driving the endline, along with Harriel’s inclination to cut back onto his right foot, the opponent can play both the cutting run from Sullivan and the overlap much more easily.

Further, the overall drop in quality in the final third is massive when Wagner isn’t on the pitch.

This chart above displays the Union’s expected goals created vs. their expected goals on target. Expected goals on target measures the quality of an expected goal chance based on shot placement. A shot ear-marked for the upper 90 will have a much higher xGOT than a shot scuffed at the keeper.

The “Chance Quality Indicator” is simply xGOT as a percentage of xG. Essentially, if xGOT is greater than xG in any given instance, then the total quality of a chance generated, including quality of the shot, exceeded the overall xG generated in that instance.

In games that Kai Wagner has played, due in part to his excellent service, the Union’s xGOT has exceeded its total expected goals count in every match. In games he has not played, the Union’s xGOT has fallen short of their overall expected goals created.

This indicates that the Union’s overall shot quality is far better when Kai is in the lineup.

Whether you chalk that up to coincidence or see any meaning behind those numbers, one thing is true:

Kai Wagner’s service – from both the run of play and set pieces – is greatly missed when he is absent.