Photo: Marjorie Elzey
Sports is full of statistics.
Statistics never tell the whole story though, and the sports world often has trouble parsing truth from statistics.
As a result, sports is full of lies.
Small samples sizes
This month, the Union treated fans to a great statistical lie: losing their first match at home since 2021.
As the statistic goes, the team had indeed not lost during a long stretch of home matches. Commentators couldn’t stop mentioning the fact over and over again during the broadcast, lest the reader had forgotten.
The truth, of course, is in both cases, in both of the bookending loses, the team was without a large portion of its roster. Once for COVID, once for an international break – both wounds inflicted upon the team by the decision of its own league.
(Another nonsense statistic: the Union are unbeaten on the road against LAFC since 2018. See if that heals any of the reader’s wounds…)
The trouble is that, over time, the truth fades while the statistic lives. No one remembers the details of the San Jose squad that still owns the longest home undefeated streak in league history, and no one will remember those details either.
Without these truths however, the statistics feel like a lie.
The Union are living another lie right now: the lie of underperformance.
The memories fade away
That’s one thing Earthlings might learn to do, if they tried hard enough: Ignore the awful times, and concentrate on the good ones. – Slaughterhouse Five
The home team started the season losing a series to their division rivals, drawing a second to a conference contender, then squandering a third to the team they knew would be standing in their way come playoff time. They were missing opportunities, their stars playing ok but not up to their expected level, and their division rivals were racking up points in the meantime.
“I felt like we let one get away,” said the manager. “I just didn’t do the job,” said one of the day’s starters.
A young season was already on the brink, the team staring at a 4.5 game gap in their own division before most fans had even opened their newspapers or had their early season cup of proverbial coffee.
These were the statistics. Real, undeniable.
The truth of course is this team was the 2008 Philadelphia Phillies, eventual World Series champions.
Seeing all time as you might see a stretch of the Rocky Mountains. All time is all time. It does not change. It does not lend itself to warnings or explanations. – Slaughterhouse Five
A generational star player out injured.
The backup a journeyman – who’d already earned his hometown boos years prior- was now an impossibly unlikely starter. The last game of the season, prime time for a team to hit its stride, was hideous. Attempting to stay healthy while working on their “slumping offense,” the team were shut out. The unlikely leader conceded, “We expect to execute better… this wasn’t acceptable.”
A season where in many moments destiny seemed to be calling turned suddenly into one where there were the loudest calls were Big Q questions.
These were the statistics. More cloud than silver lining.
The truth of course is this team was the 2017 Philadelphia Eagles, eventual Super Bowl champions.
Talking amongst ourselves
There’s plenty of room in Union circles today for Negadelphia, heavy laundry, and placing the blame. Each offers its own fair question into a befuddling few weeks of the season.
But each only has the perspective of a few weeks of this young season. Each is true, but truth fades.
If Philadelphia fans should remind themselves of one thing, it’s this: a few weeks doesn’t make a season. When they write the book on this season, the statistic that will matter is the name engraved on the cup. Ask NYCFC or LAFC about COVID or tiebreakers respectively: they’ll flash their rings in response.
The Union haven’t won that yet. Nor has anything yet happened to prevent them from doing so.
Great article Chris – and excellently timed. Really the only door mostly shut at this point is the supporters shield, and they’ve already won that.
Agreed, and for what it is worth, according to FBref.com, Philadelphia are in 5th place in conference (vs. 10th in pts) in xGD/90 standings, and in 9th place in supporters shield (vs. 18th in pts). So, in addition to playing through international breaks, injuries, and short rest, they’ve also likely been a bit unlucky.
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If the Miami and KC matches go more towards XG, maybe we’d have gotten 4 pts instead of 1, and the Orlando match maybe is a draw, and we’ve got ourselves a more optimistic outlook for improvement
10 draws last season. Almost all of them early on. The days were dark. And we end tied for the shield and holding our own in the Cup. If we get out of the slump and storm the league through summer (like last time) or win CCL no one will remember this.
Right on.
PS…. To hell with CCL.
We want the Damm MLS Cup.
Don’t we?
Why not BOTH?
Yep. There was a pretty long stretch last season where the results just werent there. I have to believe that things will get back on track. This team has too much talent and experience for me to think otherwise. Just need that game to set things right. Great article!
Do me a favor, what is our passing percentage? How many unforced errors do we commit? Sometimes stats are not lies.
Passing completion percentage in 2023 is 73.6%, or slightly higher than in 2022 when it was 73.0%. In the Union’s system, passing percentage is absolutely a lie.
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More to your point though, they continue to outperform their opponents in xG, though at a slightly lower clip than last year.
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They’re not passing the eye test yet, but continue to perform at a similar level in the underlying metrics as they did last year too.
The hangover fron coughing away the MLS Cup has still not gone away. There’s no depth to speak of and they’re running out of games to get their shit together. They’re barely in the East playoff hunt and if our owner considered Philly a big market team, we’d be in the running for Messi. Season is already slipping away.