Photo Marjorie Elzey
For the 2026 World Cup FIFA expanded its pool of qualified teams from 32 to 48.
The expansion changed the tournament’s knockout round in two ways. It added a round of 32 to the knockout phase’s bracket. And it meant that eight of the 12 third-place finishers would qualify for it.
Therefore, the third-place teams would need to be ranked. The ranking criteria are these.
- Points.
- Goal difference.
- Goals scored.
- Team conduct score, i. e., fewest disciplinary actions received weighted by severity
- Latest FIFA rankings (June 11th, 2026)
To understand what is at stake in the final round of group stage play, it is useful to know each currently third placed team’s ranking. To that end we provide two charts.
Each group’s annotated current standings A thru L.
| First | Second | Third | Fourth | |
| A | Mexico** | S Korea | Czechia | South Africa |
| B | Canada | Switzerland | Bosnia & Herz | Qatar |
| C | Brazil | Morocco | Scotland | HaitiE |
| D | United States** | Australia | Paraguay | TurkiyeE |
| E | Germany** | Cote d’Ivoire | Ecuador | Curacao |
| F | Netherlands | Japan | Sweden | TunisiaE |
| G | Egypt | Iran | Belgium | New Zealand |
| H | Spain | Uruguay | Cape Verde | Saudi Arabia |
| I | France* | Norway* | Senegal | Iraq |
| J | Argentina* | Austria | Algeria | JordanE |
| K | Colombia* | Portugal | DR Congo | Uzbekistan |
| L | England | Ghana | Croatia | PanamaE |
E = eliminated. ** = clinched 1st place. * = clinched round of 32.
Third-place ranking as of Wednesday before the start of round three group stage play.
| Team | Pts | GD | G | Next match | |
| 1 | Sweden | 3 | 0 | 6 | Japan2nd |
| 2 | Scotland | 3 | 0 | 1 | Brazil1st |
| 3 | Croatia | 3 | -1 | 3 | Ghana2nd |
| 4 | AlgeriaTC | 3 | -2 | 2 | Austria2nd |
| 5 | ParaguayTC | 3 | -2 | 2 | Australia2nd |
| 6 | Cape Verde | 2 | 0 | 2 | SaudiArabia4th |
| 7 | Belgium | 2 | 0 | 1 | NewZealand4th |
| 8 | Czechia | 1 | -1 | 2 | MexicoCL 1st |
| 9 | DR Congo | 1 | -1 | 1 | Uzbekistan 4th |
| 10 | Ecuador | 1 | -1 | 0 | GermanyCL 1st |
| 11 | Bosnia&Herzagovina | 1 | -1 | 2 | Qatar4th |
| 12 | Senegal | 0 | -3 | 3 | Iraq4th |
Algeria ranks ahead of Paraguay on team conduct score, Algeria having received -1 points of discipline and Paraguay -11.
Crucial to estimating a team’s chances to change it 3rd place ranking is its opponent in its last game. The opponent’s superscript gives the place it holds in the group going into the match. Mexico and Germany have both clinched first place in their groups, so, given that FIFA has already mapped out all their possible opponents, they may have less incentive to win the match than normally.
Mathematically, Senegal is not yet eliminated.
Last night changed things significantly for the US. Bosnia & Herzegovina have clinched one of the top 8 spots so Group B will definitely be represented. Also, South Korea (Group A) will qualify any time Scotland (Group C) qualifies. So of the original 495 permutations for which 8 groups have their 3rd place team advance, 245 have been eliminated.
.
Of the remaining 250 possibilities, according to Wikipedia, 249 of them involve the US playing Bosnia in the round of 32. (In the final possibility, they play the winner of Senegal vs. Iraq. The chances of this happening are VERY slim. Just to start with, they would require either Ecuador beats Germany or Curacao beats Ivory Coast by exactly one goal and if it is 1-0 Ivory Coast can’t get any yellow cards. Then it may need Sweden to lose to Japan by at least 2 goals and Australia can’t draw with Paraguay…and if Parguay wins, it has to be by 2 goals or 1-0.) So most likely the US will be playing Bosnia next week.