Analysis / Union

Philadelphia Union “Maximum points” chart

(Writer’s technical warning: The chart itself may not layout accurately on a cell phone. It may have too many columns, too much width.)

Photo Ben Ross

Since six of the ten remaining playoff-eligible MLS eastern conference teams have two games remaining, it is time to publish a maximum possible points chart for the east. The exceptions are Inter Miami CF for whom four games remain, Orlando who has three, and Chicago who has three.  Nashville’s third is non-league, the Lamar Hunt U. S. Open Cup final, and therefore does not affect the MLS regular season table.

A maximum  possible points chart allows readers to discover the upper and lower limits of how teams may finish in the regular season’s final table. For example, Red Bull New York may  finish no higher that ninth. That only happens if they win out, Chicago loses out, and New York wins one of its games by at least two goals so goal difference would change to favor them. The first tiebreaker would be even, and Chicago’s current lead in the third — goals for — is likely insurmountable at 12.

What the chart tells us about Philly, especially in the east
  1. If Philadelphia were to win out, no one could overtake them  in either the conference or  the Supporters’ Shield. The injury report from the DC win will provide important information potentially affecting that possible outcome.
  2. Inter Miami and Cincinnati each failed to take all three points at the weekend thus creating Philadelphia’s opportunity.
  3. Qualitatively, Charlotte’s remaining schedule is comparatively easier — on paper — than Philadelphia’s, Miami’s,  or Cincinnati’s, but their potential points totals is lesser.
  4. No one else in the east can overtake Philly’s 63 points. LA FC and Vancouver still could in the west. San Diego could only equal the Union’s 63 points and currently trails it by six in goal difference.
Reading the chart for oneself

The ten eastern teams not yet eliminated from playoff participation are listed in descending place order from first through 10th. “Pts Won” lists points already earned, the determinant of the current rank order.

Remaining games” gives the day and date and the opponent for each remaining match.  It seemed better to identify Decision Day games as a separate column.

Pts Avail” gives the upper limit of points available to be won in the future, that is to say, total games remaining multiplied by three.

Max Pts” = (“Pts Won + “Pts Avail“). It is the upper limit of the possible points the particular team can win. Comparing those limits determines what teams a specific club may or may not still aspire to overtake.  MLS’s Tiebreakers are listed below.

MLS Eastern Conference as of Monday, September 29th 9:55 AM.

 

Table

Sep28

Pts

Won

Remaining League Games

[USOC game]

Decision Day Pts Avail Max Pts
1 Phila 63   SaOct4 SaOct18 6 69
  vNYCFC @Charl
2 Cinci 59 SaOct4 SaOct18 6 65
@RBNY v Montr
3 NYCFC 56 SaOct4 SaOct18 6 62
@Phila v Seatt
4 Miami 56 TuSep30 SaOct4 SaOct11 SaOct18 12 68
v Chica v N Eng v Atlan @Nashv
5 Charl 53 SaOct4 SaOct18 6 59
@DC U v Phila
6 Nashv 53 WOct1 SaOct4 SaOct18 6 59
@Austin @Mont v Miami
7 Orlan 52 SaOct4 SaOct11 SaOct18 9 61
v Colum v Vanco @Toron
8 Colum 50 SaOct4 SaOct18 6 56
@Orlan v RBNY
9 Chica 48 TuSep30 SaOct4 SaOct18 9 57
@Miami v Toron @N Eng
10 RBNY 43 SaOct4 SaOct18 6 49
v Cinci @Colum
 
MLS Tiebreakers
  1. Total number of wins per match
  2. Goal Differential (GD) per match (Goals For per match minus Goals Against per match)
  3. Goals For (GF) per match
  4. ewest Disciplinary Points per match
  5. Away goals Differential (per match – Away Goals For per Away match minus Away Goals Against per Away)
  6. Away Goal For (per Away match)
  7. Home Goals Differential (per match – Home Goals For per Home match minus Home Goals Against per Home match)
  8. Home Goals For (per Home match)
  9. Coin Toss (tie of two clubs) or Drawing of Lots (tie of three or more clubs)

2 Comments

  1. Tim, your discussion of NJ vs Chicago is slightly off. If NJ wins out and Chicago loses all 3 of their games, NJ would get the last spot since they would have 49 points compared to Chicago’s 48.

  2. The Union can finish no worse than 3rd in the east as Cincinnati and Miami are the only two teams that can catch them. Below is a summary of the possibilities based on their possible results.
    .
    2 wins – 69 points – Union win the Supporters Shield. Game over.
    .
    1 win, 1 draw – 67 points – The only way the Union don’t win the shield is if Miami wins out.
    .
    1 win, 1 loss – 66 points – The only way the Union don’t win the shield is if Miami wins out. Vancouver and Miami could tie the Union but the Union would have more wins.
    .
    2 draws – 65 points – Here things don’t look as good. Vancouver would finish ahead of them if they get 3 wins. Cincinnati would finish ahead of them if they win their last 2 since they would have one more win. LAFC would finish ahead of them if they get 4 wins since they would have an identical record but a better goal differential. Miami would pass them with 4 wins. If Miami had 3 wins and a draw, they would be tied in the standings and in wins. Currently, Miami is 5 behind in goal differential, but would have the 3 wins to make that up. If they are tied on goal differential, Miami wins on goals scored.
    .
    1 draw, 1 loss – 64 points – The Union would lose to any of the 4 teams mentioned above if that team got 65 or more points. The Union win the tiebreakers against Vancouver or Miami at 64 points since they would have more wins. (Cincinnati and LAFC can’t finish at 64).
    .
    2 losses – 63 points – In addition to losing to any of the above teams with 64 or more points, the Union could finish behind San Diego if they win both of their games and make up a 6 goal differential (San Diego would likely have more goals scored at that point since they are even now). If Cincinnati has a win and a draw, the Union would stay ahead of them unless they made up a 15 goal differential (plus score at least 10 more goals than the Union or make up a 16 goal differential). The Union win any other possible ties at 63 points since they would have more wins than Vancouver, Miami, or LAFC.
    .
    Also note that LAFC has 2 games during the international break while Vancouver and Miami have one each so they will likely be missing players for those games.

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