Season Previews

PSP roundtable panel: 11 big questions for the Union this year

Photo: Courtesy of Philadelphia Union

With opening day upon us, it’s time for a roundtable session with PSP’s crack(ed) team of soccer observers. Here are 11 questions facing the Union with the season set to open.

Will the Union make the playoffs this year? Why?

Adam Cann: They will not. The Union missed their window last season when the Eastern Conference was soft. This year, DC United may come back to Earth, but there are a host of big spenders ready to lift off. But the real reason the Union won’t make the playoffs is not their opponents but their own roster. Get past the first 11, and you aren’t left with much 2014 contribution. There is plenty of quality, but many more question marks.

Dan Walsh: Yes, but maybe that’s just me being optimistically contrarian. They must stay healthy, because they lack adequate, proven depth. Central defense is the biggest question mark among the starters. That said, can you name the starting back lines for Orlando, Chicago, and the New York teams? Didn’t think so. Philly has a shot.

Eli Pearlman-Storch: No, but just barely. The Union did get better, absolutely. However, the teams around them improved more. Add in two well-funded expansion teams led by excellent coaches and I worry that the Union will barely lose the race for the final playoff spot, again.

Mike Servedio: Unlikely. They can if they can win the close games, but the reality is that I still think there are 6 better teams than the Union in the Eastern Conference.

Jeremy Lane: Based on the roster changes from this year to last, it would seem yes. This year’s team is better, and they barely missed out last time. But the East may be better overall, too, which could put a wrench in things.

Kevin Kinkead: Maybe. I can see this team competing for the 5th or 6th spot in the East. I think this is a solid, competitive starting 11 that can play with anyone in the league. I’m concerned about the new center back pairing of Ethan White and Steven Vitoria, and I wonder what happens at defensive mid if Maurice Edu goes down. There’s a bit more depth on the bench this year, but the Union just don’t have the firepower or star power of a Los Angeles, Seattle, or New England.

Greg Orlandini:  Hard to say. My first instinct is to say no, but if they can stay healthy in defense and the offense clicks they have a chance.  

Davis Russell: Yes, largely because of the departure of Houston and Kansas City. You’d have to think that Toronto will make it along with New England and DC, which will leave three spots for Orlando, NYCFC, Columbus and the Union to fight over. It will be close but I think that Philly can win that fight.

Peter Andrews: Yes. It was a ridiculously annoying off-season, but somehow this team returns a very strong roster on paper. Assuming they can avoid the swoons that have characterized periods of each of the last three years, they should be one of the six best teams in a 10-team Eastern Conference.

Grade the Union’s off-season and briefly explain why you gave that grade.

Adam: C. An F would be losing a talented young midfielder and a quality prospect for almost nothing without filling gaping holes at center back and striker. An A would be bringing in strong new players to build around going forward. The Union cut it right down the middle, letting Amobi Okugo skip off to Orlando for a song and protecting Fabinho over Pedro Ribeiro (even weirder now that Raymond Lee is on the roster) but bringing in a big defender and a classy striker. However, it will be difficult to build for the future on nothing but loans. Philly looks like they can contend for the playoffs in 2015, but beyond that things are just as murky as they were in October.

Dan: C. Aristeguieta looks like a coup so far, and Sapong is a good addition. The jury is out on Vitoria. But this team gave away guys for peanuts all off-season, failed to add proven depth anywhere but striker, and has an Okugo-sized hole in their defensive foundation.

Eli: B-. Late additions often take time to bed in, though that point may be made moot by a potential work stoppage. However, for all the talk of a striker and attacking options, the Union scored plenty of goals in 2014. It was the defense that was a constant headache. While Rais Mbolhi looks sharp and ready to go, the rest of the back line is far less convincing. Maurice Edu was a top-tier sweeper last year, and without his range and timing, the middle of the Union back line looks vulnerable. Plus, for all of his qualities as a 1-v-1 defender, Ray Gaddis is still not attacking option and will offer little overlapping support to Andrew Wenger.

Mike: C+. The Union left it late, and it would have certainly better to secure Vitoria and Aristegueita earlier in the preseason. Sapong is a solid addition and the draft class seems strong, but that’s a wash with losing Okugo and Ribeiro.

Greg Orlandini: B-/C+. I think they had a solid draft with Catic signed, and Eric Bird looks like he is sticking around as well.  Aristeguieta looks like he could be a major signing. But the defense is woefully thin, and left back is a question mark once again going into a season.

Peter: B-. The Vitoria, Edu, and Sapong additions look solid, and at his current pace Aristeguieta will score about 50 goals this year. That said, the team completely botched the early phase of the off-season, and the late nature of these signings may cause the team to struggle out of the gate.

Are you confident that Jim Curtin will do an adequate job as manager?

Adam: Absolutely. Jim Curtin’s baseline is adequate because he starts from a well-organized back four and a midfield sweeper. The Union defense makes its share of mistakes, but it will be consistent in a way that it never was last season. Whether Curtin can make the adjustments needed to pull out close games is  the big question that remains unanswered.

Dan: Yes. Curtin understands the mindset of MLS players. This team will be competitive. But can they be great? Not unless Andrew Wenger makes the leap to superstar this year.

Eli: Assuming he ditches the 4-4-2 formation he used during the preseason and returns to the legitimate 4-3-3 he is ideally set up for with the arrival of Aristeguieta, then he can keep his team organized enough to be very competitive.

Jeremy: I feel good about Jim. He’s a straight-shooter and smart. But he’s also a novice tactician working with limited resources and little support. He can get the team into the postseason, but that may be his ceiling, at least until he’s more experienced.

Greg: I’m a Jim guy. I like how he simplified things when he took over. He isn’t trying to reinvent the wheel. He is going to look at his squad and set them up to play to their strengths.

Peter: A couple of loaded words in this question: “confident” and “adequate.” Am I confident he will do an adequate job? Yeah. But is adequate enough for this team? I’m not confident Curtin will be able to elevate his charges to new heights, and that’s what worries me.

What are the Union missing?

Dan: A like-for-like replacement for Okugo. (And, of course, a true left back.) With Edu at center back and someone like Okugo in the No. 6 role, this team would be a championship contender. But Edu will likely be in midfield.

Mike: A left back still. The position least valued in the league is still a need for Philadelphia as well.

Kevin: The team needs some depth at center back and defensive midfield. You’re looking at Richie Marquez as the No. 3 center back right now. Otherwise, if White or Vitoria goes down, you’re shuffling Edu to center back and rotating Mike Lahoud into the midfield.

Greg: Depth in defense and a true left back. Fabinho’s stock has slid ever since Curtin took over and for all of Ray Gaddis’s talents, he is a very right-footed player playing on the left.

Davis: There’s a worrying lack of depth in midfield and at the back. This starting lineup can beat any MLS team on any given day, but the prolonged absence of any defensive player could be absolutely disastrous. Edu gives them some flexibility in playing multiple positions, but I’d like to see them add another capable defensive midfielder or a more mobile center back.

Will the left back situation finally be solved this year?

Dan: No. Ray Gaddis and Sheanon Williams are both too critical to the team’s identity on and off the field, and there is a lack of imagination — and an actual person — in what should be the Union’s general manager office.

Greg: I don’t see why it would be. The team identified striker as a need and spent time and resources to fill the need.

Peter: The Union will never, ever, ever have a capable left-footed left back, so I’m not sure why we keep asking this question. As an aside, I wonder which MLS GM had the smart idea of suggesting to Chris Albright that he might trade for Fabinho (despite having no interest in doing so) and then laughed maniacally as Albright subsequently protected him in the expansion draft. That guy deserves a kickback from Orlando City.

Mike: See above. No, it will not.

What’s your view on the Union’s center back situation?

Dan: The starting lineup’s most glaring weakness. Chemistry takes time to build. White was OK in 2014. The Union need him to improve or Richie Marquez to win the job and open some eyes.

Eli: Shaky. Even if he is the most fleet of foot 6-5 player there ever has been, Vitoria won’t be all that fast. White and Vitoria will get burned; it happens. But who will be there to cover when it does? Edu was typically the savior of the Union defense in 2014, but he figures to be a much more roaming defensive midfielder than Okugo, so the Union CBs will likely be tested often. If White can lay off the unnecessary physical challenges and maintain tight spacing with Vitoria, good things can happen. However, that communication takes time and experience, most of which will be developed on the fly during the season.

Mike: Unknown. Vitoria seems a good aerial presence from the little that we’ve seen so far. I’m still not exactly sure what to expect from Ethan White, but if he can be strong in his tackles and at least average with his passing, he and Vitoria could make a decent pairing.

Jeremy: Vitoria seems a good addition, but Ethan White still needs seasoning. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Marquez push him as the season progresses. But it’s more settled than it has been, which is a good thing.

Greg: It is a source of concern for me. Ethan White is solid, if unspectacular. Steven Vitoria seems to have a solid pedigree, but they will be making their debut together this season. And their depth is to slide other guys in from different positions.

How will the new acquisitions and draft picks fare?

Jeremy: Aristeguieta looks like he will score goals in MLS. He’s barely had any time with the team but scored four, a couple with his head. Don’t know if he’s at All-Star level, but he will be an upgrade. Eric Bird will do well, too.

Greg: Fernando should fit right into MLS. Seems to have the tools that will help him in this league. I’m excited about C.J. Sapong and how he is going impact the team. Catic has the goods, but it is a big leap from NAIA to MLS. Fortunately, he doesn’t have to play right away.

Davis: Vitoria and Aristeguieta are both poised to have huge seasons. Vitoria is exactly what the Union needed to shore up their defense, particularly on set pieces, and will likely present a threat to score in the opposing box as well. While his addition came very late in the preseason, Aristeguieta fits Curtin’s offensive system perfectly as a guy who can get on the end of crosses and pull defenses apart with his smart running ability. Sapong and Catic are also solid acquisitions as offensive depth, which will go a long way in preventing the late season fatigue that we’ve seen in the past.

Peter: I’m really interested to see Dzenan Catic play, even in limited minutes. If he becomes an off-the-bench threat, this team should be scary in attack. Aristeguieta will prove a fantastic signing and should spark debate over what we’re going to call this guy. Too many syllables.

Who or what will be the Union’s biggest positive surprise this year?

Adam: Edu. He has had a fantastic preseason and the Vitoria loan means the midfield is all his. Maurice Edu can be better than almost everyone he plays against when he is focused. He may finally be locked in.

Dan: Wenger could become an absolute star this year. The question will be whether teams focus their defensive efforts on him, particularly in the absence of an overlapping left-footed left back who can provide support in attack.

Greg: I think Wenger is poised to have a big year. He finally has a steady position and a coaching staff that believe in him.

Davis: Aristeguieta will have a great year in the Union system. He’s a young guy who’s capable of outmuscling and outrunning defenders, and he should only get better with game experience. It hasn’t been discussed much, but he has a lot of similarities to Conor Casey in the way he plays his game, and I think Casey’s presence as a mentor will go a long way in helping Aristeguieta improve.

Peter: For all the nonsense surrounding his acquisition, Rais Mbolhi might be the best goalkeeper in the league. I think he saves more than a few games for the Union with his impressive athleticism.

What killer flaw will emerge this season for the Union?

Adam: Depth and versatility. As Davis noted above, the Union are thin at midfield and possibly even thinner in back. Sapong oozes physicality and talent, but his recent track record looks very similar to a player who has divided fan opinion for two seasons: Danny Cruz. Adding Vitoria and Aristeguieta filled Philly’s two biggest needs. But those needs were so big that they didn’t push anybody who would have been starting to the bench.

Dan: The lack of a pure No. 6 defensive shield for the center backs. Edu won’t be at center back to sweep up messes like he did last year, so the center backs need the pressure taken off them by a disciplined defensive midfielder. Can Edu be that guy this year? The Union would be better with him at center back instead.

Jeremy: The same as last year: An inability to maintain possession, leading to unwanted/uncontrolled pressure.

Greg: It’s going to take defense a while to gel. The growing pains could be rough at the start of the year.

Davis: White and Vitoria are both strong presences in the air and in the box, but both guys lack the speed and quickness to track back on the counter. This defense definitely has the potential to be solid, but the midfielders, particularly Edu, need to stay disciplined so they aren’t caught upfield. It’s going to be a long season if this team can’t maintain its shape going forward.

What new wrinkle should the Union roll out this season?

Eli: My wrinkle would be to knock it off with the wrinkles. They have depth at multiple positions in a way they haven’t before. Sapong, Casey and Catic can provide like for like substitutions in the attacking third with little to no drop-off. Zach Pfeffer is looking like this might be the year that he works his way into the rotation with Cristian Maidana and Vincent Nogueira. Squad rotation should not be anywhere near as difficult this year as it has been in the past, so just let them play.

Greg: Set pieces. This team has some actually size and some players that can do damage in the box. They are going to be much stronger on corners and free kicks.

Mike: I’d side with Greg here and say set pieces. This is the biggest Union team that I can remember and they should be dangerous from their own set pieces and solid in defending their oppositions. Vitoria and Aristeguita will both be big targets in addition to Edu and Wenger. If they can get quality delivery from Maidana and (gulp) Le Toux, they can be dangerous.

Davis: It may not be their most effective formation, but I like the 4-2-4/4-1-3-2 as a different option if you’re dealing with fatigue from Maidana, Nogueira or Edu. It’s a good way to get different combinations up top with Casey sliding in to a role we saw a couple seasons back where he dropped deep and acted as more of a play-maker and secondary runner. The offensive nature of the formation also enables a guy like Lahoud or Carroll to play their roles as destroyers and back line shields where they don’t have to worry so much about the offense.

Peter: I’m sure Nick Sakiewicz is dying to somehow play Mbolhi and Andre Blake simultaneously.

Is it worth paying to see this team play?

Adam: If you watched last summer’s corruption-financed brandsplosion, run by a guy who has done things so baldly abhorrent that even the worst MLS ownership group couldn’t dream of playing in his league, you would be a bit of a hypocrite to boycott the Union. Live soccer is awesome.

Eli: Absolutely. The Union have players who check every soccer attribute box. They have skill, speed, strength and size all over the field. Whether both the coaches and the players can figure out a why to combine it into a winning formula is why we, as fans, watch the games. Plus, this is MLS. There is plenty to gripe about, but I haven’t heard a convincing argument that the quality in this league has not improved every single year. To PPL Park!

Mike: Yes. PPL Park is a great place to see a soccer game and this Union team will be fun to watch most weeks, especially at home. If they can build some momentum and make Philadelphia a fortress, everyone should get down to see some games this season.

Jeremy: Of course. I don’t buy the argument that “voting with our wallets” is the best way to voice our displeasure with ownership, because I don’t think it will work until the team is no longer financially viable, and I don’t think anyone wants that. If you don’t enjoy it, then fine, don’t watch, but if you love having a hometown team, and you love watching games in person, then buy tickets and go to the games. And this team will play exciting games, even if the results don’t always go the way we want them to.

Greg: This team will score goals, not matter what. You still get a good bang for your buck at PPL, and it can be a great place to be. I’m not going to tell people what to do with their cash, but the potential for something exciting is there.

22 Comments

  1. Jeremy Lane says:

    I can’t decide if the fact we came up with five different “killer flaws” is worrying, because there are so many to choose from, or comforting, in that no single flaw jumped out to all of us.

    Although, I guess several of them boil down to versions of “the defense” so maybe I’m wrong, and it’s just definitely the defense.

  2. Edu at CB with Vitoria and White Marquez as backups. Okugo at 6. Says it all. The team will be okay. Maybe surprise us a bit. Edu and Vitoria and Okugo and The Striker- now that would be something to talk about.

  3. 1) I don’t like how the posse answered the “biggest surprise” question. That’s a question about EXCEEDING expectations. For example, Aristeguieta has a nice pedigree and was signed as a young DP — he should be pretty darn good. A “surprise” from him would be if he becomes one of the league’s elite strikers this year. And lots of people are expecting Wenger to step up after a nice season last year. If you’re going to pick a surprise, pick a real surprise. My vote: Zack Pfeffer provides such dynamism off the bench that Curtin is forced to think about getting him into the starting lineup.

    2) I don’t agree with any of the answers to the “killer flaw” question. The posse already answered this earlier in “what are the Union missing?”, and then ignored their own answers. I think many of us believe that this starting XI might well be able to compete with anyone in MLS. And with the new signings — and the potential surprise of Pfeffer’s emergence — the U. should have real depth on the offensive end. But we stand to be really screwed for depth on the defensive end (CDM, CB, wing backs). I predict that this team will be highly competitive, probably even in playoff position, for most of the season, until one or more key defensive players wears out in September, and then they tank. In which case it will still be an enjoyable season, with lots of goals and lots of drama, and an even more solid building point for 2016.

    • Dan Walsh says:

      Maybe a fair point on No. 1. I like your Pfeffer point.

      I completely disagree with your second point. For example, I said the Union were missing a replacement for Okugo, and the killer flaw would be the lack of a pure No. 6 defensive shield for the center backs.

      • I hope Pfeffer can make an impact this year. I believe he can. The question to me is how big that impact will be.
        I agree that they didn’t replace Okugo in mid. And Brian Carrol is not a viable option in any way shape or form. But that being said, where would Okugo have played? Edu belongs in the middle. He needs to be in the middle. Nogueira has much more quality than Okugo, so there’s no way he’d replace him for me. As for Okugo playing CB, I’m pretty sure he was tired of playing there. And I was tired of seeing him there. So to me that means he would have sat the bench most of the year, which wouldn’t have been acceptable to him, and really not fair either. I’m completely fine with Lahoud playing this roll, but a nice young prospect to go along side of him as an option would have been nice.

      • Dan Walsh says:

        Re: Okugo at CB — Most definitely. I was more thinking Okugo at d-mid and Edu at CB.

        They have talent. We’ll see how they do. 🙂

  4. Old Soccer Coach says:

    The next important decisions Curtin has to make are choosing who goes to Harrisburg on loan. My bet is Hoppenot, Catic and Lee, and two weeks ago I would have said Ayuk Mbu. But the teenage trialist looked good in FL, so my fourth spot is unclear. When Hoppenot has played, he has not played striker this preseason, so he needs games as a flank mid to learn. Lee is converting to the flank back from the midfield, he needs games in which to learn. Catic has shown less effectiveness as the level of the opposition has improved, is young, and is making a substantial increase in the competitive level of his playing milieu. Again, games and learning. Number four will be the young midfielder who most needs games and is showing the least well in practice. I would say Eric Bird is the leading candidate if they sign him.

    As I think about the relationship with Harrisburg, I am hoping there are clear guidelines, understandings and limits in place between the two coaches. Coach Becher has to have the ability to choose his group, create their chemistry and run his squad his way. For my preference all those relationships are spelled out to both squads from the beginning. Otherwise Becher’s ability to operate is compromised. Unless the Union is paying his salary, that’s not fair to him nor healthy for the long-term relationship between the teams. I doubt the Union yet have the capital available to fully fund their own farm team, so they need to keep the Harrisburg and Reading relationships healthy.

    As I think about all these underlying issues, the elephant in the room is the cost of their academy and its associated school, together with each’s associated infrastructures. Anybody know anything?

  5. Comparing CJ Sapong to Danny Cruz is laughable. CJ might not be a top player, but no way he is as limited or as one dimensional as Danny Cruz. Let’s hope the fans that Danny doesn’t see the field this year.

    • OneManWolfpack says:

      +20,000,000

    • I couldn’t agree more. Probably the worst statement in the whole article.

    • Adam Cann says:

      “Sapong oozes physicality and talent, but his recent track record looks very similar to a player who has divided fan opinion for two seasons: Danny Cruz.”

      Comparing Sapong’s production to Cruz’s production, while saying that Sapong is both physical and extremely talented. Which part of that reads as a comparison of how they play on the field/how multidimensional they are as a player?

      The point is that Sapong may be an upgrade raw-talent-wise, but that he has to prove he can still be a more productive player than the options the Union already have.

      • I think the fact that Sapong can actually hold the ball up, and pass with accuracy proves he’s an upgrade and more productive. Maybe it hasn’t/won’t result in Sapong scoring, but if it allows other to score, which is more likely than if Cruz has the ball, how is this not more productive? How many more balls have to bounce off of Cruz’ feet, out of bounds, do you need to see? Seen enough of that to know he’s not the answer. I’ve said this before and I’ll say it again, Danny works hard. He tries hard. That’s nice and all that, but skill makes good soccer players. And that is not Danny. So he’s not really an option. Please don’t let him be an option.

      • Adam Cann says:

        Yeah, I think we agree, then. We both think Sapong is an upgrade talent-wise. And that it’s a question of delivering, which he wasn’t doing nearly enough in Sporting Kansas City. Which is why he was lower on the depth chart than players who probably don’t have his ceiling.

  6. This is why I’m so glad this site is still here! I visit daily… And comment sometimes…awesome from staff and usual suspects!! I will always enjoy the game live…have been through the wettest brain games and hottest summer games….still Doopin!!

  7. The Little Fish says:

    I think Rais is the real deal. I think he will be our biggest surprise. He’s a beast. If not M’bolhi I would say Wenger will be the biggest surprise. He looks like he’s going to have an MVP year.
    /
    Our back line makes me very nervous. They’ll be better on set pieces but it’s during the run of play that concerns me. Hopefully they will gel quickly since they both have been very vocal on the pitch this preseason. Fingers and toes crossed.
    /
    I like the two forwards wrinkle for times when we need instant offense. There are instances when simply rotating in a new striker isn’t enough. Switching the formation at the same time can help loosen up an in form defense. I wouldn’t want to roll it out every week though because it would put too much stress on our backline (see prior paragraph.)
    /
    I think we are going to the playoffs. It’s going to be whisker close but I like our chances. Especially now that we have the ginger ninja on our side.

    • I hope you are right that Rais is the answer. I’m still not convinced he’s consistent enough. He can and does make spectacular saves, but he seems prone to be lackadaisical. But that being said he’s an upgrade from Mcmath, who won’t win you a game with a great save, and seemed even more lackadaisical.
      As far as the back line goes, I’m actually more confident than last year, at least as far as corners go. I never wanna see Mo at CB again for corner kicks. I can remember at least 3 games we lost because Mo lost his guy on a corner kick and that guy scored. Mo needs/has to be in midfield.
      As far as losing Ribeiro to keep Fabinho, am I missing something? What has Ribeiro done? Anyone? Ok, he’s young and tall. That’s nice. But Fabinho can play two positions for you. Granted his stock has fallen on defense, but Ribeiro was replaced by Catic basically, and Catic excites me way more than Ribeiro. If you argue that we should have replaced Fabinho with a better option, ok that I can agree with.

  8. Agree wholeheartedly that seeing games live is fantasic, it’s made me MUCH bigger fan than I was before. Doesn’t hurt that the atmosphere in and around PPL on a game day is so good natured.

    I am excited about the increase in size. No longer will our guys look like boys among men. The U were almost Lilliputian against Houston last season. I think set pieces will be a bit more fun to watch this year…If, if, IF…We can find someone who can boot a ball into the box with some height and touch.

    Did anyone else notice that for all the skills Maidana and LeToux have, they might have been the worst free/corner kickers in all of soccer? I rarely saw a kick that wasn’t a shoulder height bullet bouncing off the nearest defender in front of the box OR a comet streaking over the box entirely. Extremely frustrating to watch and it never got better all season.

  9. If u go on youtube and see the micd up preseason, it looks like our team has good chemistry. That being said i didnt watch any preseason games so i dont know if that chemistry carries on to the field

  10. Joe Schmo says:

    “Is it worth paying to see this team play?”
    /
    Great answers by all the guys, especially Jeremy. Thank you. I’ve written similar comments this offseason, but they tended to be much less succinct and much more dickheady. We’ll be seeing you down the Park. Up the Union.

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