Photo: Earl Gardner

UPDATE/AUTHOR’S NOTE: After I learned I was moving to Italy this past summer, we at PSP changed my column. It got a new title, “A View from Afar,” a slightly different focus, and the unfortunate but realistic recognition that I wouldn’t be able to do the same reporting that I could do from within the States. So the column and my approach changed. 

After today’s column ran, I heard from a reliable source and learned that, apparently, I can still do a bit of MLS reporting from overseas after all. Lesson learned. I should have contacted that source in advance. Maybe I would have learned a bit of what you’ll read below in the updates, and my assessments would have been different. Then again, maybe it took a a provocative piece like this to get folks to open up. Judging by the emails I’ve gotten, it certainly surprised some people that what Ed Farnsworth describes as my “voice of reason” approach to my columns was replaced by the “burn the house down” theme you saw today. But hey, I try to be versatile.

Either way, I’m updating this post (and headline) with newly learned facts that prompt a reassessment of some of the opinions I stated below. The original text remains because completely rolling back those earlier statements after many people read this piece might be a bit intellectually dishonest and generally pretty weak. (I would have put a strikethrough on “train wreck” in the original headline but didn’t know how to format it at the time! I do now, but whatever.) But when facts change, so do the conclusions you draw in a commentary like this. See below. My updates are in italics and boldface.

We have no an idea what Philadelphia Union management is thinking, and we’re not now pretty sure they do either too.

In a day that confirmed the club’s absolute lack of a uniform vision, the Union on Monday made some of the most flummoxing decisions seen in their five-year history as an active team. We’re talking Peter Nowak levels of bizarre here, as if the mad scientist himself climbed through a window and hijacked the franchise for a day either for old time’s sake or as part of an out-of-court settlement to his lawsuit against the Union.

1. Amobi Okugo is gone. Not to Europe. To Orlando. For allocation money. Which better be a lot. But probably isn’t. Because it seems very clear that he’s gone because the Union were unwilling to pay him what he’s worth. UPDATE: They were willing to pay. See below for more details.
2. Fabinho remains. Because protecting an overpaid backup left back from expansion teams who would not pick him anyway is so important that the Union exposed promising rookies Pedro Ribeiro and Richie Marquez instead. UPDATE: The opinion remains, but see below for more insight on this.
3. The Union protected neither Rais Mbolhi or Zac MacMath. It’s an interesting and possibly justifiable calculation that nonetheless probably prompted many Union fans to vomit in their mouths just a little bit.
4. And then there was a good trade for C.J. Sapong. How nice. UPDATE: No update. Still a good trade.

Let’s break down each of these decisions before we talk generally about the expansion draft, some of the big names available (Diego Fagundez???) and why Orlando looks like they will be one of the league’s best teams right away.

Amobi Okugo: Gone because the Union wouldn’t pay him

Do not believe the nonsense about the Union generously letting Okugo go so that he could try his hand in Europe. It never struck me as true, and now it’s very clear that it was not now that he is signing a contract with Orlando instead of going to Europe.the BS, shall we?

The Union never intended to keep Okugo because:

1. Manager Jim Curtin didn’t rate Okugo highly enough to pay what Okugo thinks he’s worth;
2. Okugo tired of dealing with one of the most dysfunctional franchises in MLS and wants to develop as a midfielder;
3. Or some other silliness or clash of personalities we don’t know about.

The Union ostensibly made Okugo a nominal bona fide offer to retain his rights within MLS, under the premise that he was leaving for Europe. Under the rules of the league’s collective bargaining agreement, that equates to 105% of Okugo’s current base salary of $145,000. There was no talk of a significant raise, and if there was one beyond the basics of a bona fide offer, we haven’t heard of it.

You’re telling me that a 23-year-old player who’s been a top-shelf starter for three years is worth only $152,250?

Please.

All the talk in the world about building a team around young players means nothing if you don’t actually keep and play your young players.

If the Union wanted to retain Okugo, they would have offered him between $220,000 and $300,000 and told him, “Yes, you’re going to play defensive midfield.” At the lower end, he’d be a bargain. At the higher end, you’d have to justify it by citing his anticipated continued progression. (I’d have offered $230k with incentives and annual increases.)

UPDATE: The Union offered Okugo a 2015 base salary of $235,000 to renew his contract with Philadelphia, according to a source close to the team. That’s about the same as what Okugo made in 2014, when about $90,000 in bonuses are factored in with his $145,000 base salary.

Okugo’s agent did test the waters in Europe a bit but decided against pursuing the offers he got. After the season (or some earlier point), however, Orlando entered the picture, which is something Okugo himself confirmed today. Orlando offered more money than the Union, the source told me. I asked the source whether tampering charges could come into play because of Orlando’s approach to a Union player. The source was no expert but opined that the pending expiration of Okugo’s contract changed that scenario for the Union.

As for allocation money, the source told me the Union received $150,000 for Okugo, as first reported by Philly.com’s Jonathan Tannenwald, and not the $100,000 reported by Goal.com’s Ives Galarcep.

REASSESSMENT: The Union offered almost exactly what I indicated that I’d offer him as a first offer. If true — and I believe the source — that’s absolutely a fair offer. Could it have been higher? Obviously yes, based on what Orlando offered. My guess is that Orlando’s offer is at the high end of the range I speculated earlier — near $300,000 — but that’s something we’ll clearly see evidence on next season when the players union releases its salary figures.

So why did Okugo leave? Clearly, basic capitalism was part of it. Orlando made him feel more valued and, in all likelihood, more stable. Okugo seems to have created his own version of free agency with Orlando, much as Aurelien Collin did in forcing Kansas City to trade him to Orlando as well. Hopefully, Okugo will straightforwardly and clearly articulate his decision-making process with PSP in an interview later this week. As one of the most articulate professional athletes around, he’s more than capable. 

Okugo’s Europe options were never bound to be good this year. Does he have the potential to play there? Absolutely. But based on his body of work and his bouncing between positions, his options were likely to be on the level of lower first division clubs in Belgium and the Netherlands, first tier clubs in Scandinavia, or second division clubs in Germany or England. He hadn’t yet made an all-star team or a national team appearance. He needs another year or two in MLS to build his resume and lock in on one position before bigger European clubs come calling.

Now, the last player to have spent all five years of the Union’s existence playing with the club is gone.

And for what? Allocation money? A second round draft pick?

Memo to the Union: This would be one of those times you want to leak to the press how much allocation money was actually acquired rather than hiding behind supposed league policies on secrecy for allocation money that are consistently flouted anyway. Because if it’s only $100,000 to $150,000, as has been reported elsewhere, then the Union gave away one of their most promising assets for one-tenth of the salary of the striker they want. The trade cannot be justified under these circumstances to a rightly skeptical fan base.

That matters less than what they’re losing: Exactly the type of player you want to build a club around, on and off the field.

Instead, Okugo will be part of the foundation of an Orlando team that increasingly looks like it will be one of the best run clubs in MLS.

Fabinho: More valuable than …

Meanwhile, Fabinho remains.

Yes, everyone’s favorite backup left back and fairly likeable guy was deemed important enough to protect in the expansion draft, despite the fact that he is overpaid as a backup fullback, not to mention the desire of a growing legion of Union observers to design a rocket with which they will fire Fabinho into the sun. (This latter desire is cruel and unusual and something I don’t approve of, but that hasn’t stopped Union fans from latching on to the offhanded reference by PSP contributor Peter Andrews and discussing design and financing alternatives.)

Among the players the Union chose not to protect were rookies Pedro Ribeiro and Richie Marquez, each of whom could have been protected under the draft’s international player protection rules. Each makes less money than Fabinho and is at least five years younger.

Ribeiro and Marquez could be attractive to Orlando. They are both low-paid, young rookies with high upsides. Orlando has seen both play firsthand in USL PRO, where they were among the top performers for Harrisburg on loan from the Union. As a bonus, Ribeiro is Brazilian, and Orlando’s owner is trying to sign his countrymen to appeal to the large Brazilian population frequenting Orlando.

As for Fabinho —

Neither Orlando nor New York City FC was likely to select Fabinho. This isn’t because he’s a bad MLS player. He’s just not a particularly good one. He makes about $100,000, which is fairly high pay for a backup in MLS. He’ll be 30 in March.

UPDATE: The Union have fielded inquiries from multiple teams about trades for Fabinho, according to this source close to the Union. Union management’s reasoning behind protecting Fabinho was that they would rather trade him for something or someone of actual value than lose him in the expansion draft. Further, they value him because he is an actual left-footed player with some ability on that side of the field.

REASSESSMENT: Fair enough. Makes sense. Apparently, other MLS teams value Fabinho more than I do. My view of Fabinho remains unchanged: He is a fairly useful and serviceable player to have on the squad, but he was not worth protecting over the other players who were exposed. Draft day will obviously add some 20-20 hindsight on this one.

And if the Union lost Fabinho, would it matter?

He has proved over the last two years he is not good enough to start at left back in MLS. Yes, he might be a nice guy, but is that enough to justify exposing these other players?

No, of course not.

Rais Mbolhi: Unprotected??!!

After all that drama ensuing from the Union’s acquisition of “world class” goalkeeper Rais Mbolhi and benching of Zac MacMath, the team proceeds to leave both unprotected?

This one is fascinating. Here’s what it says to me:

• Curtin never wanted Mbolhi;
• Curtin now has more control over player movement and overruled Nick Sakiewicz here;
• Curtin is willing to let someone else take Mbolhi.

This may seem like the most inexplicable of all of Monday’s moves, but it’s probably the most defensible.

First off, both expansion clubs have signed starting quality goalkeepers. Yes, Josh Saunders washed out with the Los Angeles Galaxy due to substance abuse problems and could easily project as a backup, but NYC manager Jason Kreis had him subsequently in Salt Lake and prioritized his acquisition. Saunders is a worthy reclamation project, either as starter or backup. In Orlando, Tally Hall was a top tier goalkeeper for Houston and likely would be again once he recovers from injury.

Second, the list of available goalkeepers includes some quality, including Raul Fernandez, Andy Gruenebaum, Joe Willis, Brad Knighton, Donovan Ricketts, Jeff Attinella, and Jon Busch. The Union could be gambling that the expansion clubs either don’t pick goalkeepers in the draft or go for one of the others. (Willis in particular is worth considering, as is Attinella, who has been good as a backup, and Gruenebaum if he can stay healthy.)

Third, the Union have the option of protecting one of those goalkeepers as their 12th player as soon as the other one is picked.

All that said, it’s worth restating that, outside the way in which Mbolhi was brought into the club, his acquisition always looked good on paper: A legitimate international starter for a World Cup team whose club situation was never quite settled.

Unless he’s a designated player next year. What’s that? He is? A DP goalkeeper? In a country known for producing good goalkeepers? Madness.

UPDATE: Mbolhi is in fact a designated player for the 2014 season, by virtue of a transfer fee the Union paid for his rights, according to the source cited above. It’s a situation similar to Cristian Maidana, whose salary is below the DP threshold but who is a DP in 2014 due to a transfer fee paid to his former club. Mbolhi’s salary will rise somewhat in 2015, but not to DP levels, so he will not be a DP in 2015. The source didn’t know how much the transfer fee was.

REASSESSMENT: Ok, so maybe it’s not madness. The prior statement stands, regarding his signing appearing to be a good deal on paper. Of course, we don’t know definitively what the transfer fee was. Transfermarkt lists it as $350,000. If correct, that seems like an awful lot in a league where you can get quality goalkeepers like Peruvian international Raul Fernandez for free in this week’s Re-Entry Draft or via trade yesterday for much less than $350,000. When you combine this with the loss of Okugo due to dollars and cents, the math looks rather unkind. 

Curtin could be ready to wash his hands of all the drama and just go with Andre Blake in goal next year. Considering the Jamaican’s performance in international play recently, that could be a very justifiable move.

The C.J. Sapong trade: The best sign that the Union still have a clue

Good trade.

Talented player. Good upside. Past experience with Reading United, former teammate of Andrew Wenger and Ray Gaddis. Had trouble breaking into the Kansas City lineup over the last few seasons, but he showed enough in his first two seasons to indicate he’s a better center forward option than most of the Union’s current options.

And the Union only had to give up a draft pick.

Sapong will be 26 come opening day. He needed a change of scenery. Here’s his chance.

UPDATE: Nothing new.

REASSESSMENT: None. Still a good deal, even if some might argue that a first round pick was too high a price to pay for a guy who Kansas City acknowledges they were going to expose in the expansion draft. (I think it’s a fair price. If I was KC, I would have gambled that he would outlast the expansion draft if I wasn’t getting at least a first round pick via trade.) The Sapong deal is still rightly overshadowed by Okugo’s departure right now. He won’t be overshadowed if he scores 15 goals next year.

Exposed players of interest

Various players stood out when MLS released teams’ exposed lists on Monday. Here are some of them:

• Diego Fagundez: New England left Fagundez unprotected, which should make him the first player picked. Except, there’s this. So he won’t be picked. Apparently.
• Corey Ashe: Good left backs are hard to find. Ashe will get picked. If Orlando gets him, it wouldn’t surprise me if he gets dealt to the Union as part of some unspoken handshake deal that went with the Okugo trade. I’m not saying it will happen, but it wouldn’t surprise me, largely because logic doesn’t support the Okugo trade unless the Union get more than $100,000 and a draft pick.
• George John: It wasn’t that long ago that John was one of the league’s best center backs and tipped for an overseas transfer. But he missed the entire 2014 season due to the latest of a series of injuries. He’s out of contract, so he could also be acquired in Friday’s Re-Entry Draft if not picked in Wednesday’s expansion draft.
• Former RSL players: Look for NYC to pick up at least one RSL player. Ned Grabavoy would slot in as an immediate starter. Devon Sandoval and Sebastian Velazquez are talented young players, while Jeff Attinella played well when Nick Rimando was hurt. (But there are plenty of goalkeepers, so expect Kreis to prefer the outfield players instead.)
• Eddie Johnson! Won’t get picked. No expansion club wants his drama.
• Benji Joya: The U.S. U-20 international should be on everyone’s radar. Chicago makes the Union look like geniuses on player personnel decisions.
• Andrew Driver: D.C. United traded for him and then left him exposed. He’s a good player who a British coach like Adrian Heath would probably consider.
• Jeff Parke: If he can return from injury, he’s one of the league’s best center backs. But word has it the local guy’s career could be over.
• Jared Jeffrey and Conor Doyle: Jeffrey and Doyle looked pretty good last year for D.C. United. This year, they couldn’t crack the lineup. Each has European experience.
• Adam Moffat: He hustles. He has a cannon of a shot. Good role player.
• Hendry Thomas: Should be one of the top picks in the draft if either team is willing to pay him what he wants. Dallas wasn’t, but he was so good for them as a center midfield destroyer.
• Kenny Cooper: Solid forward. Probably overpaid. Worth picking if you can renegotiate his contract.
• Raul Fernandez: The Peruvian may be the best goalkeeper available.
• Tim Cahill: How fascinating would it be if NYC FC acquired Cahill and then watched him have another big year?
• Thierry Henry: Henry to NYCFC? Please let this happen.

And finally, the Union players most likely to get drafted, in no particular order:

1. Richie Marquez: See above.
2. Pedro Ribeiro: See above.
3. Rais Mbolhi: See above. Would be funny. In a train wreck sort of way.
4. Zac MacMath: See above. And the last five months of writing. He grew up near Orlando.
5. Mike Lahoud: Good role player. Versatile enough to deputize at right back or wide midfielder. Good locker room presence.
6. Austin Berry: Don’t forget this guy. He was a solid center back before injuries wiped out his 2014 season. Still young enough. He would be my first pick from the Union.