Photo: Ron Soliman
Ten matches under new boss Bradley Carnell, and six of those have resulted in wins. The general consensus projected that this season would result in nothing more than a slog – and for good reason.
However, through ten matches played, the Union are unexpectedly(?) revving at RPMs much higher than last season.
For all my analytics nerds out there, this one’s for you.
Goal differential
The Union didn’t necessarily have trouble scoring in 2024 – their 62 goals scored were 5thamong all teams in MLS.
The Union’s problem was more the concession end of the matrix, as Philly allowed 55 goals (1.56 goals per 90), bringing their goal differential to +7. That was good enough for 13thacross the league.
A new season, a new manager, and a new tactical structure have vastly improved the defensive side of the ball. The Union currently hold the 2nd best goal differential in MLS at +10, with revelation-side Vancouver leading the way at +13.
The team’s +0.59 expected goal differential per 90 (xGD per 90) minutes has more than doubled since last season (+0.25 in 2024) – speaking to the Union’s improved overall chance creation vs. chance suppression.
Carnell’s side have also improved the margins in converting these chances. The team have scored 19 goals so far, which is the second highest total (Vancouver, Portland, and San Jose each have potted 20 goals).
Chance quality
The Union’s chance quality relative to their total expected goals has also been impressive this season.
To evidence this, the squad’s expected goals on target (xGOT) has exceeded their total expected goals (xG) generated in all but three games this season.
Think of xGOT as a measurement of everything that happens after a shot, where xG is a measurement of the chance based on everything before the shot.
| Match Day | Opponent | Expected Goals (xG) | Expected Goals on Target (xGOT) | xGOT - xG | Chance Quality Indicator (xGOT/xG) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Orlando | 1.83 | 2.35 | 0.52 | 1.28 |
| 2 | Cincy | 3.20 | 3.95 | 0.75 | 1.23 |
| 3 | NE | 1.23 | 1.88 | 0.65 | 1.53 |
| 4 | Nashville | 2.03 | 2.46 | 0.43 | 1.21 |
| 5 | STL | 1.34 | 1.9 | 0.56 | 1.42 |
| 6 | Miami | 2.20 | 1.61 | (0.59) | 0.73 |
| 7 | Orlando | 1.49 | 0.49 | (1.00) | 0.33 |
| 8 | NYCFC | 1.27 | 0.25 | (1.02) | 0.20 |
| 9 | Atlanta | 1.34 | 2.5 | 1.16 | 1.87 |
| 10 | DC | 1.22 | 1.71 | 0.49 | 1.40 |
| Stats via fotmob.com | Average | 1.72 | 1.91 | 0.20 | 1.12 |
On average, the Union’s xGOT has exceeded its xG this season 1.91 to 1.72 over 90 minutes. This suggests that when factoring in shot placement on just the Union’s chances resulting in a shot on target, the Union are averaging quality in those chances on target that exceeds the overall quality from all chances (both on and off target).
One interesting tidbit is that in only one game that Kai Wagner has played, has the Union’s xGOT not exceeded its xG. That game was the disappointing loss to NYCFC at Citi Field (a baseball stadium).
Amongst the quality of the overall chances the Union create, this development demonstrates the importance of the width that Kai Wagner provides is pivotal.
Chance quality conceded
On the flip-side, the chance quality that Union concedes to opponents has also been a welcome improvement over last season for the side.
Per fbref.com’s version of the expected shots on target metric, the Union’s post-shot expected goals per 90 against is at 0.91. This is down from 1.64 high quality chances given up per game in 2024, which can be attributed to a few things:
- Teams not testing Blake with quality shots
- A healthy Blake
- Improved defensive play from front to back
- Better luck
The Union have also encountered fewer shots on target faced per 90 minutes compared to last year (4.79 in 2024, 3.1 in 2025).
While we have seen teams blow high quality scoring opportunities against the Union, a combination of all of the above is the most probable explanation for the improvement.
Best start in franchise history
And if you are still with me through all these numbers, this one resonates loudly. The Union have tied their franchise best 19 points through 10 games – earned in their “almost” Supporters’ Shield winning season in 2022.
If you asked me in January, this is certainly not what I thought I would be writing about 10 games into this season. At this point, the sample size is large enough where credit to both Ernst and Carnell, along with the players, is overdue.
The team have been impressive given the situation in which they found themselves this offseason.
Coming off a strong home-stand, back to back 3-0 wins, heading into a tough May slate, we will truly get to see what this team is made of.
Way to bury the lede. Sheesh. But on pace with MLS Cup year?? That is an amazing stat.
Oh, and well done on the article.
We’re really spoiled as Union fans the last (almost) decade.
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Despite not having star players, not having the league’s attention in any meaningful way, not having an urban stadium, and not having any singular playmaker or attractive ethos, the team still crank out wins and put themselves in the conversation every year.
Since they have replaced a single defensive midfielder with a double one, I would hope the defensive statistics are better. Those numbers not improving would have been a disaster.
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The offensive successes and improvement without a true central attacking mid is worth noting.
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But the first ten games are a small enough sample that the early season conditioning advantage they worked so hard to obtain is still influencing the numbers.
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Were the numbers for the middle third of the season as good further praise would be deserved.
Numbers match the eye test for sure. We are entering the middle phase of the season where depth will be tested. Let’s see if they can keep it up!