Photo by Ron Soliman

Who: Philadelphia Union (3rd place, 13 points, 4-1-2) vs. New York City FC (11th place, 8 points, 2-2-3)
What: MLS Regular Season, Match Day 8
Where: Citi Field, Flushing, NY
When: Saturday, April 12th, 7:30 PM
Watch: MLS on Apple TV+, Radio Call on 97.5 The Fanatic
Whistle: Ref: Guido Gonzales Jr, AR1: Brooke Mayo, AR2: Kathryn Nesbitt, 4th: Joshua Encarnacion, VAR: Geoff Gamble, AVAR: Joshua Patlak

After their recent scoreless draw vs. Orlando that saw the Union largely control the match, the Boys in Blue travel north to face off with heated rivals New York City FC at Citi Field.

On Wednesday, Union land was rocked by another blockbuster trade. This time Daniel Gazdag, the club’s all-time leading scorer, was acquired by Eastern Conference foes Columbus Crew in a cash-for-player-deal. The Crew put up $4 Million and up to $500,000 in performance incentives for the Hungarian Maestro.

The Boys in Blue will need someone to step up in the wake of Gazdag’s shocking departure in this rivalry match.

Scouting report: New York City FC (W-W-D-L-L)

New Coach on the Block

Ahead of the 2025 season, NYC parted ways with Nick Cushing, their longest tenured head coach. They hired Pascal Jensen as his replacement. Jensen was most recently with famous Hungarian side Ferencvárosi TC. Jensen brings UEFA Europa and Conference League experience to City’s organization.

Jensen, who succeeded Arne Slot at Eredivisie’s AZ Alkmaar, has a good track record of developing young players. Now 51, Jensen was once the youngest person to ever get the UEFA Pro License at just 35 years of age. NYCFC are tied with the Union for the 3rd youngest squad in MLS this season, with an average age of just 26 years old. 

In his 3 years at Alkmaar, Jensen had a hand in developing many notable players and transferring them out to some of Europe’s top clubs. Some of these include Vangelis Pavlidis (bought by Benfica for $19 Million), Milos Kerkez (Bournemouth, for $20 Million), and Tijjani Reijnders (AC Milan, for $23 Million). All ranked among the highest ever priced departures for Alkmaar per Transfermarkt. 

Talking Tactics

Tactically, Jensen’s teams primarily use a 4-2-3-1, but he will occasionally change the formation, usually to a 4-3-3. This holds true through NYC’s first 7 games, as they have lined up in a 4-2-3-1 in 6 of those, but recently opted for the 4-3-3 against Atlanta. 

In his opening press conference, he stated that he would, “bring an aggressive style of play that likes to pressure opponents in-and-out of possession.”

This aggression will combine decoy runs and lateral movement to create space and chances from out wide on the attack.

Defensively, he utilizes situational pressing that emphasizes man-marking, cutting off passing lanes and rushing the ball to create turnovers. 

Predicted NYCFC lineup

City have seemingly struggled to implement the “Bulletproof Mindset” that Jensen wants. In their last two games, they blew a 3-1 lead in Atlanta and then conceded a goal in the first minute against Minnesota, ultimately losing that home contest 2-1. 

An Atypical Attack

One of NYC’s main problems is their attack. City have 10 goals but only four assists, indicating problems with their chance creation. This can lead to an unreliability in attack. Alonzo Martinez (four goals), and Hannes Wolf (three goals), can both score, but the team is missing someone who pulls the strings in midfield. While they do have Maxi Moralez, at 38, he is not the same player he was back in 2021. However, they have been able to capitalize on defensive errors from their opponents, likely as a result of Jensen’s press. 

In fairness, both Andres Perea and Tayvon Gray have been injured. Both players generate offense from the midfield and fullback spots, so their return could indicate a more rounded look for City. 

Former Union Homegrown Player Matt Freese is still there – entering his 3rd season with the side. In 2024, he was named the club’s MVP. He is prone to the occasional error, exemplified in Atlanta’s fourth goal from their recent match, but he is usually a reliable shot stopper and distributor.  

• Injury report: Jacob Arroyave (OUT – Knee), Malachi Jones (OUT – Leg) 

Scouting report: Philadelphia Union (W-L-W-L-D)

Indiana Jones and the Central Attacking Midfielder

The major headline ahead of this match is Daniel Gazdag’s trade to the Columbus Crew. His departure leaves a DP-sized hole in the Union’s midfield. While it will prove challenging, or even impossible, to replace Gazdag’s goals, this move opens the door for one of the Boys in Blue to step up big time. 

In the long term, it’s likely that the trio of young academy attacking mids (Cavan Sullivan, David Vazquez, and CJ Olney) will compete for time there. Of those, Cavan Sullivan is the front runner. However in the short term, and in this game, expect Indiana Vassilev to slot into attacking mid. Carnell trusts him from their time in Saint Louis. Based on Tanner’s statement that the Union and the Crew had been in talks for a couple months, it’s possible that Vassilev was brought in as a stop-gap, in the event of a trade being agreed upon.

How the Union will adjust on the field remains to be seen. Any club would expect to experience difficulties in replacing their record scorer. It’s unlikely the Union will replace all those goals directly, but a player better at chance creation should lead to more goals all around, especially from the striking unit. Vassilev is something of a utility player and should be able meet the requirements of the role, at least until one of the kids is ready.

Kai Wagner

Philadelphia will hope to receive a boost from the return of Kai Wagner. The stud Left-Back has missed the past two contests due to an oblique injury and is considered “Day-to-Day,” according to Carnell. His absence has resulted in a noticeably less potent Union attack. His four assists lead the team and are tied for second in all of MLS. If Wagner is able to suit up, the Union’s chance of winning will be much greater. 

Since coming to the Union in 2019, the German defender has played in 174 MLS games. With Wagner on the field, the Union have a record of  84 W – 47 T – 43 L or about a 57% chance of getting a result. When he doesn’t play, Philly has a record of 7 W – 6 D – 12 L, just a 36% chance of earning points. Two of those wins came against the Wooden Spoon winning Cincinnati team back in 2019.

The most recent Wagner-less match the Union were victorious in was an October 4th home game versus Atlanta in 2023. The Union won 3-2 with goals from Gazdag, Carranza, and Uhre. And yes, it was also the last time the former ‘Big 3’ all scored in the same game.

Predicted Union lineup

Pressing Matters

Another factor to consider for this game is how Philly’s style of play might be affected by the field dimensions. It’s well reported that NYCFC’s fields are shorter and narrower than the average professional pitch, coming in at 110 Yards long and 70 Yards wide. For reference, Subaru Park is 120 yds by 75 yds. Until that soccer specific stadium gets built, the Pigeons will continue to hold an advantage in home matches, except for CCC since neither Yankee Stadium nor Citi Field field meets FIFA requirements. Not that MLS cares about stuff like that.

However, the Union has had the better of the Citizens in recent years, even in New York. Their last trip to the Big Apple ended in a 5-1 rout over City. With Philly’s press, which is even more aggressive under Carnell, the Union should be able to exploit the smaller area and turn it to their advantage. 

As a final note, both Cavan Sullivan and Neil Pierre were subbed out at half-time in Thursday’s Union II game. This was confirmed by Ryan Richter to be a planned minute restriction ahead of the NYC game. With Ian Glavinovic sidelined in the short and medium term, Neil Pierre figures to be in the mix for minutes, although Nathan Harriel is also capable of playing Center Back. 

• Injury report:  Ian Glavinovic (OUT – Meniscus), Kai Wagner (Questionable – Oblique), Andre Blake (Questionable – Abductor)

Key matchup

The Union Attackers vs. Themselves

After starting off hot, the offense has cooled down in recent weeks but it’s not for a lack of chances. Philly will have plenty of opportunities to score this week, yet again, but they absolutely must convert on them.

Player to Watch: Cavan Sullivan

Not to fall victim to the hype machine here, but with the Gazdag trade, the minute restriction, and his previous appearance against Orlando, it’s likely that Carnell and Tanner are ready to give Cavan more time. He’s not going to start just yet, but it wouldn’t be surprising to see him come off the bench if the Union’s offense needs a jumpstart.

Prediction: New York City FC 1-3 Philadelphia Union

I know it’s crazy to predict an away win in MLS, but I really can see the Union turning the tables on the Citizens. While City also uses a pressing system, Jensen seems to have had more trouble instituting it than Carnell. Both team’s press will result in a messy, chaotic, and fast paced game, especially within the confines of Citi Field. The Union are due for some more goals, and they’ll find them in Queens.