Photo courtesy Philadelphia Union II Communications
Apart from Atlanta, whose season ended Sunday afternoon at Subaru Park, all teams in MLS NEXT Pro’s eastern conference have one game remaining, at 1 PM ET Sunday, October 6.
As shown below, five have been eliminated from playoff contention. Three others have already qualified for the playoffs with two having guaranteed home games and opponent choice in the playoffs’ first round. The remaining seven teams are competing for the five remaining playoff spots.
| Out | Already in | Still alive |
| NY Red Bull II | Philadelphia II | Miami II |
| Toronto II | Cincinnati 2 | NYC FC II |
| Atlanta 2 | Orlando B | Crown Legacy |
| Huntsville | Chicago II | |
| New England II | Carolina | |
| Chattanooga | ||
| Columbus 2 |
Three games will match teams either “already in” or “still alive.” Loosely interpreted, these games are “six-pointers” in their effects on the final table.
- 3rd place Orlando plays 2nd place Cincinnati, at Cincinnati.
- 1st place Philadelphia plays 7th place Chicago, at Chicago.
- 4th place Miami plays 8th place Carolina, at Carolina.
The conference
The east is beyond tight—four points separate third place from 10th. Only one win in regulation separates fourth from 10th (see Appendix below).
Tiebreakers will matter.
- The first tiebreaker is wins secured in regulation.
- The second is comparative goal difference.
- The third is comparative “goals for,” should it be needed.
Starting from the bottom of the “still alive” column, we think we know the following.
- Columbus cannot equal Orlando or Miami on points. To equal New York, Columbus must make up a goal difference of seven. To equal Crown Legacy they must make up a goal difference of two. They could overtake Chicago, Carolina, and Chattanooga on points.
- Chattanooga cannot overtake Orlando because of wins in regulation.
- Carolina, Chicago, Crown Legacy, New York, and Miami could each finish as high as third if all their details came together perfectly.
- If everything went wrong, Orlando could finish as low as eighth.
- Philadelphia and Cincinnati are guaranteed to finish either first or second with the consequent home playoff games and opponent choices in the first round.
Four U II Decision Day outcomes
The league named Union II’s Cavan Sullivan “Man of the Matchday” for his match-tying goal on Sunday (see photo).
- If Philly wins in regulation (+3 pts), they finish first having controlled their destiny.
- Otherwise, because Cincinnati is only one point behind Philadelphia, Philly’s finish will depend on the Orlando-at-Cincinnati result, i.e.,
- if Philly draws and wins the shootout (+2 pts),
- or if Philly draws and loses the shootout (+1 pt),
- or if Philly loses (+0 pts).
Philadelphia is in control of their own fate. However, predicting whom they will choose to finish fifth, sixth, seventh, or eighth is beyond the capabilities of Philly Soccer Page’s famously unreliable crystal ball.
Appendix: “Maximum Possible Points” chart
The chart below lists the eastern conference’s standings prior to Decision Day along with the other pertinent data.
Chart Key: — P=current points; M=maximum possible points; L=games left; W=wins in regulation (1st tiebreaker); D=goal difference (2nd tiebreaker).
Last updated Monday, September 30, 2024 at 8:21 AM ET
NB: Crown Legacy is Charlotte FC’s professional reserve team, aka “farm team” in American professional baseball parlance. |
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Two additional points since publication:
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1. While the start time remains to be announced, Union II’s home playoff game will be Sunday, October 20.
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2. There are three commercial flights — puddle jumpers — from Columbus, OH to Chicago, IL that are scheduled to arrive in Chicago before or about 8 AM, should the organization choose to send players from Saturday night’s bench in Columbus to Union II’s 1 PM Sunday Decision Day tap off in Bridgeview.
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They have done things like that in the past to assist playoff qualification. (McGlynn, Sullivan, et al., to Foxboro two years ago, I think I remember.) I have no idea whether they value finishing first that highly. They might.