Photo courtesy Philadelphia Union

Were the Philadelphia Union to make every final of every tournament it plays during the 2024 regular season, it would play 54 games from February 20 through October 19.

This assumption may be unrealistic – fifty-four matches is an upper limit the Union will almost certainly not reach.

But Ernst Tanner and Jim Curtin will strive to get close. When the FIFA international breaks and their associated national team duties are added to considerably more than MLS’s  34 regular season games, the Boys in Blue face major schedule congestion.

In the worst case perhaps as many as three out of every four games will be played on the third or fourth day after the previous game.

An approximation only

Since this early in the offseason publicly available official data is incomplete, we present a worst case estimate and base it partially on a series of approximations.

Using the sources detailed below, we have laid out a combined schedule for that regular season upper limit. The layout is  of course unofficial, and  will prove inaccurate, but when you plan, it makes sense to plan according to worst-case scenarios, not best-case.

We count fifty-four possible matches from First Tap through Decision Day. The number excludes any MLS Cup playoffs. It is an upper limit. There can be no more than 54.

Here are the sources from which we have worked. We note those that are official. More are unofficial approximations, and the last one of those includes some partially educated guesswork.

• Major League Soccer’s schedule has recently been published. Those 34 matches are firm data.
• Round One of the 2024 Concacaf Champions Cup (CCC or C) is equally firm.
• The date ranges for subsequent CCC rounds have been published, so assumptions about actual game dates can be plausibly made should advancement occur. When the published date range is three days, we have used the middle day. When only two days are given, we used the later one.
• If last year’s rules still apply, the Union should enter the Lamar Hunt U. S. Open Cup (USOC or O) in the Round of 16. The date ranges of the USOC’s rounds are published. We estimated game placement using the same pattern as for the CCC described immediately above.
• We have no official information whatsoever about the 2024 Leagues Cup (LC or L). Our estimate (the extensive Appendix below) assumes it will follow the same rules that governed 2023. The LC estimate also discusses our confidence levels in its three major components. To summarize, the seeding rankings of MLS and Liga MX are solid barring any rule changes. But the geographic placement of the unseeded teams is guesswork that is only slightly more reliable than throwing darts at a map, since we do not know how choices were made last year. NYC FC’s placement in particular exists because as good Philadelphia fans we all hate New York.

Our presentation gives a realistic  impression of the problem Philadelphia faces. But it is not reliable enough to plan family vacations or to sketch out future ticket purchases.

A general impression

In our worst case model 40 of the 54 games would be played on the third or fourth day after the previous match. Three out of every four Union games in 2024 could be played on only three- or four-days’ rest.

Of the dates charted below only the MLS ones (M) below are official. All others (C, L, and O) are estimated.

The dates for the non-MLS matches should vary by only one day either way from the one given.

Appendix: Estimating the 2024 Leagues Cup

We assume the 2024 Leagues Cup will imitate 2023 exactly and play every fourth day. We recreate that pattern as congruently as possible without regard for adjustments demanded by TV and streaming.

Major League Soccer plays a Spring, Summer, and Fall single season totaling 34 regular season games, followed by a postseason playoff. Liga MX plays Fall, Winter, and Spring, with an Apertura sequence for the first 17 regular season games and a separate Clausera one for the second set of 17. Both the Apertura and the Clausera are each followed by playoffs, the Apertura Liguilla and the Clausera Liguilla.

Since the two leagues are not congruent, to create equitable seeding Liga MX complies a special table, an aggregate covering a single calendar year that combines the second half of a calendar year’s earlier season with the same calendar year’s first half of the next. Our unofficial calculation of the 2023 Aggregate Table follows below to the right of the corresponding MLS one.

Since there still are 47 teams in the two leagues, 47 teams will participate in the 2024 Leagues Cup tournament. Forty-five will be placed in 15 groups of three in the group stage. Placement, aka seeding, is based on two tables: the 2023 MLS Modified Supporters Shield (adjusted for MLS Cup playoff results), and the aforementioned Aggregate Table. 2023’s calendar years are therefore compared accurately in spite of the two leagues playing different calendars.

The top ranked two teams of the 47 will pass directly to the tournament’s single elimination knockout stage. They will be joined by the top two from each group to form a round of 32 to open the knockout stage. The knockouts proceed using single elimination through five rounds to a third-place match and a final. The winner, the runner-up, and the third-place finisher advance to the 2025 Concacaf Champions Cup.

All matches of the tournament will be played in MLS stadiums regardless of seeding rank. Philadelphia will have its two group-stage matches at Subaru Park. The third match of its group will occur at the non-seeded MLS team’s stadium. The pattern will be followed in the other 14 groups.

The two Liga MX teams in LA FC’s group and FC Cincinnati’s will play at LA FC’s and Cincinnati’s stadiums respectively when they play head to head.

Here are our unofficial estimates of the necessary seeding tables.

Estimated Group Stage Matchups

Unless the rules for classification have changed, the two seeded teams in each group are almost certainly correct . But the geographic distribution of the non-seeded teams that follows may be wildly inaccurate.

MLS Cup winner Columbus and Liga MX 2023 Aggregate Table winner Club America will bye directly to the Round of 32 in the Knockout Stage of the tournament.

Groups and Group Stage Dates

These are guesses based on last year’s rhythm that was described as being World Cup-like. Since that is in four day intervals, we think the group stage matches will be played on T/R, July 23–25, S/M. July 27–29, and W/F, July 31–Aug 3, 2024.

Here is an unofficial guess how that might look.

M = Monday, T = Tuesday, W = Wednesday, R = Thursday, F = Friday, S = Saturday, U = Sunday