SEBA Projections

Updated SEBA Projections through November 27

Wow am I late on this. I got too caught up in World Cup Qualifying… and then holidays… and then [excuses].

Below are the current MLS season forecasts using data from games through November 27, 2016 along with previous forecasts.

Power Rankings

The “Power Rankings” we concoct are the actual “strength” of the team according to competitive expectations. They are computed showing average expected points result if every team in MLS played every team both home and away.

Through the 11/13 Games

Colorado moved ahead of NYRB.  Toronto moved ahead of both NYRB and Colorado.  Los Angeles moved ahead of NYCFC.  Montreal moved ahead of Vancouver, Portland, and KC.


Through the 11/22 Games

Seattle moved ahead of NYCFC.


Through the 11/27 Games

NYRB moved ahead of Colorado. Seattle moved ahead of Los Angeles.


Playoffs probability and more

Through the 11/13 Games


Through the 11/22 Games


Through the 11/27 Games


Through the 11/27 Games

The only possibilities for the remaining slot is Seattle (winning the MLS Cup) or NYCFC (anyone else winning the MLS Cup).


Changes Over Time

This shows the MLS Eastern Conference’s power rankings’ evolution in SEBA throughout the season.


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