Photo: Earl Gardner

Vincent Nogueira left Philadelphia Union after the team’s 3-2 win over Harrisburg City Islanders in the US Open Cup. The suddenness of the French midfielder’s departure makes it easy to forget that he had only played 70 MLS minutes since the Union’s May 14 draw with Montreal Impact. Though Nogueira was unquestionably a key cog in Philly’s midfield, the team knew how to operate without him, collecting five (extremely) tough points in the three matches he missed through injury in May.

Nogueira returned to the lineup the same day C.J. Sapong picked up the ankle knock that has kept him out of the last three matches. Prior to his injury, Sapong had played an absurd 1237 of 1245 possible MLS minutes in 2016 (and he had missed one single minute of action since the opening match of the season).

With Sapong and Nogueira both missing, Philly has struggled to rediscover their pre-Copa America form. In three matches, they have allowed nine goals, collecting a mere three points against a trio of inconsistent opponents.

This sort of streak needs a narrative, so let’s start with the most popular one: The Union miss Vincent Nogueira.  

Missing Nogueira

Simple and straightforward. Philly’s midfield featured a direct, active, attacking midfielder and a solid, stay-at-home holding player, and Nogueira was the perfect keystone to balance everything out. With Brian Carroll protecting the back line and Tranquillo Barnetta driving the team forward, Nogueira brought wide players into the game, helped hold possession, and slowed down counterattacks.

All true! No complaints there, right? Well, except that it doesn’t really explain what has happened since Nogueira left. The team has given up more goals, sure, but how many would Nogueira have really prevented? The two goals off central defensive turnovers? The four set piece goals? Jack Harrison’s driving run or Christian Bolanos’ late deflected goal? Perhaps the only goal that Nogueira could have had a hand in stopping was Kekuta Manneh’s sensational run, which came after two of Philly’s central midfielders abandoned the middle zone at the same time.

[gfycat data_id=”UniformSilentChital” data_autoplay=false data_controls=false data_title=true]

Add to all this that Nogueira’s replacement has been at the center of almost everything good about the Union’s attack and this narrative is a lot less appealing.

So, of course, a new narrative must be found:

Say what you will about the Union missing Vincent Nogueira… they really miss C.J. Sapong. #PHIvVAN

— Jonathan Tannenwald (@thegoalkeeper) June 26, 2016

Well, we just said “what we will” about Nogueira, and this story sounds fairly logical on the surface, so let’s check it out.

Missing Sapong

CJ Sapong is another one of those players that fills a niche in the Union’s system extremely well, but, like Nogueira, is likely not irreplaceable. So what is the actual argument for why the Union really miss Sapong?

Having played almost all the minutes he could have played, Sapong is tied for the team’s scoring lead this year. More importantly, he is indisputably the spearhead of the defense. A lot of what the Union defensively is based on is team pressure, which means pressing center backs so they have to look long, and cutting off switches so teams can only use one side of the field. Sapong is as good as any striker in MLS at these defensive activities; he wears out defenders when Philly has the ball and he harries them relentlessly when the team is out of possession.

Against NYC FC, it was clear the Union missed Sapong’s pressing, as rookie Fabian Herbers often over pursued when the home side spread the center backs apart, taking himself out of play.

But in the past two matches, Herbers has been a much more efficient and intelligent defensive presence. He cannot hope to replicate the speed and power of Sapong, but there is little evidence that teams are building out of the back more effectively than they were earlier in the season. Central defenders are still struggling to connect long passes against Philly’s well-organized defense.

Additionally, there’s this: Sapong’s contributions had been waning prior to his injury. Including the Columbus match, over the previous five matches he was averaging just one shot per game, and he had only two shots on goal during that span. Though the Union’s front man was still putting in the defensive miles, the physical battles were clearly taking their toll.

Through three games as a starter, Herbers has three shots, and one on frame (the shot that led to Alberg’s goal against Chicago; the deflected shot off the joint against Vancouver was not counted as a shot on goal). He also has an assist, giving him and Sapong the same number on the season.

To be clear, the argument here is not that there is nothing lost when Herbers starts over Sapong. What the Union lose with Sapong is likely more defensive than offensive, however — and this points to the real narrative of the past three games — the nine goals given up since the Copa break have little to do with Sapong’s absence. 

Missing… luck?

The real narrative of the past three matches is that Philly has started nothing but kids and a mercurial Brazilian across the back, a rookie striker taken outside of the top five (over the past six years, only Deshorn Brown, Tesho Akindele, Will Bruin, and Sapong have contributed in a meaningful way in the first season), and a first-year midfielder for three matches. During that time, the team only missed going undefeated because of they forgot how to defend off their own set pieces in New York, flat out didn’t defend set pieces against Chicago, and were punished by Vancouver on literally every shot from a good area except Blas Perez’s blocked effort.

The narrative is that, despite a key injury and a key departure that necessitated the team’s best player switching positions, Philadelphia’s defense remains largely unimpeachable. The goals have come almost entirely off set pieces and individual errors, not anything systematic.

It is not time to worry.

It’s time to see if Josh Yaro really does learn from his mistake (a mistake that still required an exquisitely placed finish from a player not known for such a skill).

It’s time to see if Tranquillo Barnetta can restrain his runs when Roland Alberg leaves the center, and if Alberg can recognize when he needs to cover.

The Union absolutely miss Nogueira’s awareness and positioning. And it is certain they will welcome back Sapong’s defensive and aerial work up top. But they have also been far more dynamic offensively over the past three matches. Without Nogueira. And without Sapong.

The Union have scored well-built goals and attacked the box with creative, short passing. They have scored 2.67 goals per game after averaging 1.5 per match (both with and without Nogueira) over the rest of the season.

The most accurate narrative is twofold:

1. The Union miss their key players, but without those players the offense has evolved, and even thrived.
2. The team is getting punished for individual mistakes and very correctable set-piece defending at the same time. 

One of those narratives portends good things. There’s little evidence the other will last.