SEBA Projections

MLS, USL, and NWSL projections through March 18th

Below are the 2018 MLS season forecasts using data from games through March 18, 2018.

Interactive Charts

*Hint: If you ever want a sneak peek on forecasts, these charts are often updated earlier than the official post

MLS forecasts

MLS forecasts over time

USL forecasts

USL forecasts over time

Power Rankings

The “Power Rankings” we concoct are the actual “strength” of the team according to competitive expectations. They are computed showing expected points-per-game if every team in MLS played every team both home and away.

SEBA has Philadelphia down to 10th from 9th.

Currently, Philadelphia’s performance expectation is set by the following distribution of minutes:

Philadelphia +/- for 2018

Philadelphia Plus/Minus

plyrNetGoalsPlusGoalsMinusGoalsMINSNetGoalsPer90PlusGoalsPer90MinusGoalsPer90
Cory Burke5231810290.4372.0121.574
Raymon Gaddis2373519690.0911.6911.6
Jay Simpson110382.3682.3680
Alejandro Bedoya03939229201.5311.531
Haris Medunjanin03535208001.5141.514
Mark McKenzie02222117901.6791.679
Marcus Epps0101060901.4781.478
Keegan Rosenberry-138392340-0.0381.4621.5
Borek Dockal-132332077-0.0431.3871.43
Anthony Fontana-11299-0.9090.9091.818
Derrick Jones-224189-0.9520.9521.905
Ilsinho-31215884-0.3051.2221.527
Warren Creavalle-3811504-0.5361.4291.964
Fabian Herbers-437357-1.0080.7561.765
Matthew Real-415236-1.5250.3811.907
Andre Blake-540452520-0.1791.4291.607
Auston Trusty-540452520-0.1791.4291.607
Jack Elliott-518231341-0.3361.2081.544
Fafa Picault-631371722-0.3141.621.934
David Accam-615211123-0.4811.2021.683
Fabinho-6410481-1.1230.7481.871
CJ Sapong-726331957-0.3221.1961.518
Shows the goal differential for each player while they were on the field

 

MLS +/- for 2018
TeamplyrNetGoalsPlusGoalsMinusGoalsMINSNetGoalsPer90PlusGoalsPer90MinusGoalsPer90
Atlanta UnitedMichael Parkhurst30592924531.1012.1651.064
Atlanta UnitedBrad Guzan27573023741.0242.1611.137
Atlanta UnitedJosef Martinez25542923720.9492.0491.1
Atlanta UnitedJulian Gressel25563124050.9362.0961.16
Atlanta UnitedMiguel Almiron25573224600.9152.0851.171
New York Red BullsBradley Wright-Phillips24472321770.9921.9430.951
New York Red BullsTyler Adams23442120591.0051.9230.918
New York Red BullsTim Parker22442221600.9171.8330.917
Sporting Kansas CityMatt Besler22472522050.8981.9181.02
Atlanta UnitedLeandro Gonzalez Pirez22533122370.8852.1321.247
Los Angeles FCSteven Beitashour21492821040.8982.0961.198
Atlanta UnitedHector Villalba20361614151.2722.291.018
New York Red BullsLuis Robles20492923400.7691.8851.115
Atlanta UnitedJeff Larentowicz20533323890.7531.9971.243
Sporting Kansas CityGraham Zusi20543425200.7141.9291.214
Sporting Kansas CityIlie Sanchez20543425200.7141.9291.214
Sporting Kansas CityTim Melia20543425200.7141.9291.214
New York Red BullsSean Davis19432421290.8031.8181.015
Sporting Kansas CityRoger Espinoza19503123140.7391.9451.206
Atlanta UnitedChris McCann18382015021.0792.2771.198
Atlanta UnitedFranco Escobar17351814251.0742.2111.137
Atlanta UnitedDarlington Nagbe17372015420.9922.161.167
Sporting Kansas CityDániel Sallói16412519340.7451.9081.163
New York Red BullsKemar Lawrence16412520780.6931.7761.083
New York Red BullsAaron Long16452923560.6111.7191.108
Los Angeles FCLee Nguyen15301513371.012.0191.01
New York Red BullsMichael Murillo15321714850.9091.9391.03
Seattle SoundersNicolás Lodeiro15352018890.7151.6680.953
New York CityAlexander Callens15493423900.5651.8451.28
New York Red BullsFlorian Valot14271311501.0962.1131.017
Sporting Kansas CityKhiry Shelton14251111581.0881.9430.855
New York CityJesus Medina14422818110.6962.0871.391
Sporting Kansas CityIke Opara14453122330.5641.8141.249
Los Angeles FCTyler Miller14554124300.5192.0371.519
Seattle SoundersRaúl Ruidíaz131857191.6272.2530.626
Atlanta UnitedMikey Ambrose131967311.6012.3390.739
New York CityYangel Herrera13261310031.1672.3331.167
Sporting Kansas CitySeth Sinovic13251211441.0231.9670.944
Atlanta UnitedEzequiel Barco13291614390.8131.8141.001
FC DallasMichael Barrios13392620140.5811.7431.162
New York CityMaximiliano Moralez13513825910.4521.7721.32
Sporting Kansas CityJimmy Medranda121977281.4842.3490.865
Los Angeles FCJordan Harvey12342216000.6751.9131.238
Seattle SoundersGustav Svensson12281616310.6621.5450.883
Los Angeles FCLatif Blessing12392716520.6542.1251.471
Los Angeles FCLaurent Ciman12443219800.54521.455
Houston DynamoAlberth Elis12443221360.5061.8541.348
New York CitySean Johnson12463424300.4441.7041.259
Real Salt LakeAaron Herrera1121108141.2162.3221.106
Real Salt LakeNick Besler11301911620.8522.3241.472
Seattle SoundersOsvaldo Alonso11241312380.81.7450.945
Sporting Kansas CityGerso Fernandes11301913320.7432.0271.284
Seattle SoundersKim Kee-hee11281715680.6311.6070.976
New York Red BullsAlejandro Romero Gamarra11382719840.4991.7241.225
New York CityAlexander Ring11423121750.4551.7381.283
FC DallasMauro Diaz101998071.1152.1191.004
Seattle SoundersHarry Shipp10251512140.7411.8531.112
New York CityEbenezer Ofori10322216240.5541.7731.219
Los Angeles FCWalker Zimmerman10403017810.5052.0211.516
Los Angeles FCCarlos Vela10382818470.4871.8521.364
New York Red BullsDaniel Royer10352518920.4761.6651.189
Seattle SoundersChad Marshall10362620890.4311.5511.12
Seattle SoundersStefan Frei10352523400.3851.3460.962
Los Angeles FCBenny Feilhaber10514123750.3791.9331.554
Houston DynamoRomell Quioto9382919410.4171.7621.345
Portland TimbersDiego Chara9372819800.4091.6821.273
FC DallasReto Ziegler9382920510.3951.6671.273
Los Angeles FCDiego Rossi9443520920.3871.8931.506
FC DallasMaximiliano Urruti9423322030.3681.7161.348
New York CityAnton Tinnerholm9423322470.361.6821.322
FC DallasMatt Hedges9443523850.341.661.321
Seattle SoundersCristian Roldan9372824300.3331.371.037
FC DallasReggie Cannon9453624710.3281.6391.311
Atlanta UnitedKevin Kratz81684751.5163.0321.516
New York Red BullsAlex Muyl818109440.7631.7160.953
New England RevolutionKelyn Rowe8211310780.6681.7531.085
New York CityIsmael Tajouri-Shradi8271913220.5451.8381.293
Seattle SoundersKelvin Leerdam8221414200.5071.3940.887
New York CitySebastien Ibeagha8312315310.471.8221.352
Houston DynamoEric Alexander8332516620.4331.7871.354
FC DallasRoland Lamah8312316780.4291.6631.234
Sporting Kansas CityJohnny Russell8332517630.4081.6851.276
Houston DynamoDaMarcus Beasley8403217900.4022.0111.609
Toronto FCGregory van der Wiel8453718690.3852.1671.782
Los Angeles FCAdama Diomande720137940.7932.2671.474
Portland TimbersJeff Attinella7282117660.3571.4271.07
FC DallasCarlos Gruezo7373020580.3061.6181.312
New York CityJonathan Lewis6822192.4663.2880.822
Sporting Kansas CityKrisztián Németh6602242.4112.4110
Sporting Kansas CityDiego Rubio617116160.8772.4841.607
New York CityRodney Wallace61157890.6841.2550.57
Sporting Kansas CityFelipe Gutiérrez6231710730.5031.9291.426
DC UnitedWayne Rooney6231711010.491.881.39
Vancouver WhitecapsRussell Teibert6262011330.4772.0651.589
Portland TimbersAndy Polo6191311600.4661.4741.009
FC DallasJimmy Maurer6221611700.4621.6921.231
FC DallasSantiago Mosquera6241811760.4591.8371.378
Houston DynamoAlejandro Fuenmayor6322614480.3731.9891.616
Houston DynamoAndrew Wenger6322615110.3571.9061.549
Houston DynamoMauro Manotas6433721010.2571.8421.585
Houston DynamoJuan David Cabezas550815.5565.5560
Sporting Kansas CityCristian Lobato5833271.3762.2020.826
Seattle SoundersBrad Smith5833391.3272.1240.796
New York Red BullsKyle Duncan51053531.2752.551.275
Montreal ImpactBacary Sagna51053601.252.51.25
Atlanta UnitedEric Remedi51385530.8142.1161.302
FC DallasKellyn Acosta516116740.6682.1361.469
DC UnitedBill Hamid515107200.6251.8751.25
FC DallasAnton Nedyalkov515107700.5841.7531.169
DC UnitedKofi Opare516118630.5211.6691.147
Real Salt LakeDanilo Acosta518138960.5021.8081.306
DC UnitedRussell Canouse520159930.4531.8131.36
Philadelphia UnionCory Burke5231810290.4372.0121.574
Toronto FCAuro5231810640.4231.9451.523
Los Angeles FCEduard Atuesta5282312920.3481.951.602
New York CityMaxime Chanot5231813030.3451.5891.243
Seattle SoundersWill Bruin5221714510.311.3651.054
Sporting Kansas CityYohan Croizet5282314580.3091.7281.42
Los Angeles GalaxyChris Pontius5353014860.3032.121.817
Houston DynamoAdolfo Machado5302515790.2851.711.425
FC DallasVictor Ulloa5292416340.2751.5971.322
Los Angeles GalaxyMichael Ciani5393416490.2732.1291.856
Toronto FCAlexander Bono5413618900.2381.9521.714
Houston DynamoTomás Martínez5383319200.2341.7811.547
Columbus CrewJonathan Mensah5302519870.2261.3591.132
Portland TimbersZarek Valentin5413624240.1861.5221.337
Real Salt LakeJefferson Savarino5484324930.1811.7331.552
New York Red BullsBen Mines44090440
Montreal ImpactQuincy Amarikwa4622451.4692.2040.735
Montreal ImpactMicheal Azira4952991.2042.7091.505
Los Angeles FCAaron Kovar4953051.182.6561.475
Columbus CrewRicardo Clark41176200.5811.5971.016
Los Angeles GalaxyGiovani dos Santos422188090.4452.4472.002
Columbus CrewCristian Martinez41068400.4291.0710.643
Toronto FCVíctor Vázquez4282411900.3032.1181.815
Vancouver WhitecapsCristian Techera4242012070.2981.791.491
New York Red BullsConnor Lade4201612160.2961.481.184
FC DallasJesse Gonzalez4252113500.2671.6671.4
Real Salt LakeJoao Plata4282413630.2641.8491.585
Seattle SoundersNouhou Tolo4201615280.2361.1780.942
Los Angeles FCMark-Anthony Kaye4332915820.2281.8771.65
Portland TimbersAlvas Powell4322818300.1971.5741.377
New York CityBen Sweat4322818440.1951.5621.367
Houston DynamoJoe Willis4383419800.1821.7271.545
Toronto FCSebastian Giovinco4464220240.1782.0451.868
Toronto FCJonathan Osorio4474321620.1671.9571.79
Portland TimbersSebastian Blanco4353121890.1641.4391.275
Columbus CrewArtur4343022950.1571.3331.176
Atlanta UnitedAndrew Carleton341932.9033.8710.968
Columbus CrewAlex Crognale341972.7843.7110.928
Sporting Kansas CityGianluca Busio3301212.2312.2310
New York Red BullsAndreas Ivan3411441.8752.50.625
Columbus CrewPatrick Mullins3741581.7093.9872.278
Chicago FireMichael de Leeuw3411721.572.0930.523
Chicago FireDjordje Mihailovic3411981.3641.8180.455
Los Angeles GalaxyBradford Jamieson IV31182710.9963.6532.657
New York CitySaad Abdul-Salaam3632730.9891.9780.989
Sporting Kansas CityEmiliano Amor31073320.8132.7111.898
FC DallasDominique Badji31073870.6982.3261.628
New York Red BullsVincent Bezecourt31073950.6842.2781.595
Colorado RapidsShkëlzen Gashi3964570.5911.7721.182
Toronto FCChris Mavinga31075000.541.81.26
FC DallasRyan Hollingshead314115870.462.1471.687
Houston DynamoPhilippe Senderos315126060.4462.2281.782
Portland TimbersLiam Ridgewell31077260.3721.240.868
New York CityRonald Matarrita3201710090.2681.7841.516
Portland TimbersCristhian Paredes3221913430.2011.4741.273
New York CityDavid Villa3252213940.1941.6141.42
Columbus CrewPedro Santos3262318140.1491.291.141
Real Salt LakeKyle Beckerman3434022610.1191.7121.592
Portland TimbersDiego Valeri3403723710.1141.5181.404
Portland TimbersLarrys Mabiala3413823850.1131.5471.434
Montreal ImpactIgnacio Piatti3413824040.1121.5351.423
Toronto FCAyo Akinola220247.57.50
Portland TimbersLucas Melano220286.4296.4290
Los Angeles GalaxySheanon Williams220394.6154.6150
DC UnitedBruno Miranda231862.0933.141.047
Columbus CrewEdward Opoku2421261.4292.8571.429
MinnesotaRomario Ibarra2421820.9891.9780.989
Los Angeles FCChristian Ramirez2422400.751.50.75
Los Angeles FCOmar Gaber2532540.7091.7721.063
New York Red BullsCarlos Rivas2752640.6822.3861.705
San Jose EarthquakesQuincy Amarikwa2532680.6721.6791.007
New York CityValentin Castellanos2422690.6691.3380.669
Sporting Kansas CityWan Kuzain Wan Kamal2643070.5861.7591.173
Toronto FCLucas Janson2863210.5612.2431.682
New York CityThomas McNamara2753700.4861.7031.216
FC DallasCristian Colman2974510.3991.7961.397
Houston DynamoKevin Garcia2975750.3131.4091.096
New York Red BullsDerrick Etienne Jr.214127400.2431.7031.459
Vancouver WhitecapsAaron Maund216148100.2221.7781.556
Los Angeles FCDejan Jakovic223219370.1922.2092.017
Portland TimbersAndres Flores219179960.1811.7171.536
Real Salt LakeSunny2211911290.1591.6741.515
New York Red BullsMarc Rzatkowski2211912160.1481.5541.406
Portland TimbersSamuel Armenteros2201812840.141.4021.262
Montreal ImpactRudy Camacho2252312960.1391.7361.597
Houston DynamoDarwin Ceren2282614080.1281.791.662
Vancouver WhitecapsYordy Reyna2343215560.1161.9671.851
DC UnitedPaul Arriola2353318300.0981.7211.623
Columbus CrewFederico Higuain2252319670.0921.1441.052
DC UnitedJoseph Mora2383619830.0911.7251.634
Philadelphia UnionRaymon Gaddis2373519690.0911.6911.6
Real Salt LakeDamir Kreilach2464423770.0761.7421.666
Real Salt LakeBrooks Lennon2444224130.0751.6411.567
New England RevolutionJalil Anibaba2413924030.0751.5361.461
Real Salt LakeJusten Glad2484625500.0711.6941.624
Colorado RapidsStefan Aigner110118.1828.1820
Montreal ImpactDavid Choiniere110127.57.50
Montreal ImpactMathieu Choiniere110263.4623.4620
New England RevolutionIsaac Angking110283.2143.2140
Philadelphia UnionJay Simpson110382.3682.3680
Columbus CrewAdam Jahn110681.3241.3240
Chicago FireJon Bakero121751.22.41.2
New York Red BullsCristian Casseres Jr.110821.0981.0980
Los Angeles GalaxyJoão Pedro132851.0593.1762.118
Atlanta UnitedAlec Kann12190121
Sporting Kansas CityAndreu Fontas11090110
New York Red BullsEthan Kutler1211010.8911.7820.891
New York Red BullsBrian White1211260.7141.4290.714
Real Salt LakeAndrew Putna1211350.6671.3330.667
Los Angeles GalaxyEmrah Klimenta1101570.5730.5730
New York CityBrad Stuver1541800.52.52
New England RevolutionBrad Knighton1211800.510.5
FC DallasPablo Aranguiz1211860.4840.9680.484
Atlanta UnitedRomario Williams1651910.4712.8272.356
Portland TimbersJorge Villafaña1322040.4411.3240.882
New York Red BullsRyan Meara1432700.3331.3331
Atlanta UnitedMiles Robinson1872710.3322.6572.325
Columbus CrewGaston Sauro1322750.3270.9820.655
New York Red BullsFidel Escobar1543490.2581.2891.032
New York Red BullsAurélien Collin1983530.2552.2952.04
Los Angeles FCDanilo Silva1543930.2291.1450.916
Columbus CrewJon Kempin1984500.21.81.6
FC DallasTesho Akindele1875500.1641.3091.145
Seattle SoundersRomán Torres1985530.1631.4651.302
Seattle SoundersVíctor Rodríguez111107010.1281.4121.284
FC DallasMarquinhos Pedroso115147200.1251.8751.75
Montreal ImpactMatteo Mancosu1171610860.0831.4091.326
New England RevolutionClaude Dielna1242313340.0671.6191.552
Los Angeles GalaxyRomain Alessandrini1343314850.0612.0612
Real Salt LakeCorey Baird1313016410.0551.71.645
Los Angeles GalaxyZlatan Ibrahimovic1424116930.0532.2332.18
DC UnitedOniel Fisher1333217770.0511.6711.621
Montreal ImpactRod Fanni1272618400.0491.3211.272
DC UnitedYamil Asad1383719330.0471.7691.723
DC UnitedLuciano Acosta1434222140.0411.7481.707
Montreal ImpactSaphir Taider1393824020.0371.4611.424
Columbus CrewHarrison Afful1353424300.0371.2961.259
Real Salt LakeNick Rimando1474624750.0361.7091.673
DC UnitedSteve Birnbaum04848252001.7141.714
Toronto FCMichael Bradley04848231701.8641.864
Real Salt LakeAlbert Rusnak04444229301.7271.727
Los Angeles GalaxyDave Romney04343190402.0332.033
Philadelphia UnionAlejandro Bedoya03939229201.5311.531
Philadelphia UnionHaris Medunjanin03535208001.5141.514
Columbus CrewGyasi Zardes03434249801.2251.225
Los Angeles GalaxyJonathan dos Santos03232146601.9651.965
DC UnitedDarren Mattocks02727126001.9291.929
Columbus CrewZack Steffen02626207001.131.13
Columbus CrewMilton Valenzuela02525204501.11.1
Los Angeles FCMarco Ureña0222295202.082.08
Philadelphia UnionMark McKenzie02222117901.6791.679
DC UnitedJunior Moreno02121116801.6181.618
Los Angeles FCJoao Moutinho0202087102.0672.067
Montreal ImpactChris Duvall02020118901.5141.514
Real Salt LakeMarcelo Silva02020128701.3991.399
DC UnitedUlises Segura01919102601.6671.667
New England RevolutionGabriel Somi01818104201.5551.555
FC DallasMaynor Figueroa0161699701.4441.444
New England RevolutionScott Caldwell01515125401.0771.077
Vancouver WhitecapsSean Franklin0131383301.4051.405
Toronto FCAshtone Morgan0121282901.3031.303
Philadelphia UnionMarcus Epps0101060901.4781.478
Houston DynamoChris Seitz09954001.51.5
Montreal ImpactRaheem Edwards09980901.0011.001
Seattle SoundersWaylon Francis09955401.4621.462
Columbus CrewMike Grella08845901.5691.569
Vancouver WhitecapsBrett Levis08857001.2631.263
Houston DynamoMemo Rodriguez07752901.1911.191
Seattle SoundersJordy Delem06666100.8170.817
New England RevolutionChris Tierney05530901.4561.456
Sporting Kansas CityGraham Smith05518002.52.5
Chicago FirePatrick McLain04422401.6071.607
DC UnitedPatrick Mullins04422501.61.6
Columbus CrewJustin Meram03328600.9440.944
New York CityKwame Awuah03314301.8881.888
Atlanta UnitedBrandon Vazquez0226902.6092.609
Colorado RapidsKip Colvey02220800.8650.865
Los Angeles FCShaft Brewer Jr.0112903.1033.103
New York Red BullsHassan Ndam01190011
San Jose EarthquakesDominic Oduro0112104.2864.286
Atlanta UnitedAndrew Wheeler-Omiunu00016000
Atlanta UnitedPaul Christensen00054000
Colorado RapidsCole Bassett00027000
Columbus CrewMohammed Abu00093000
DC UnitedChris Odoi-Atsem00012000
DC UnitedDane Kelly0003000
DC UnitedJared Jeffrey0002000
FC DallasAbel Aguilar00034000
FC DallasJesús Ferreira0003000
Houston DynamoMac Steeves00026000
Los Angeles GalaxyAriel Lassiter00093000
New York CityCedric Hountondji0001000
New York Red BullsStefano Bonomo0001000
Portland TimbersModou Jadama00027000
Real Salt LakeLuke Mulholland0001000
Real Salt LakeTaylor Peay0001000
Seattle SoundersKim Kee-Hee000246000
Toronto FCAidan Daniels00012000
Philadelphia UnionKeegan Rosenberry-138392340-0.0381.4621.5
New England RevolutionCristian Penilla-137382281-0.0391.461.499
New England RevolutionLuis Alberto Caicedo-135362072-0.0431.521.564
New England RevolutionTeal Bunbury-135362085-0.0431.5111.554
Philadelphia UnionBorek Dockal-132332077-0.0431.3871.43
Vancouver WhitecapsAlphonso Davies-142431995-0.0451.8951.94
MinnesotaFrancisco Calvo-136371889-0.0481.7151.763
Vancouver WhitecapsKei Kamara-135361717-0.0521.8351.887
Toronto FCMarky Delgado-136371576-0.0572.0562.113
New England RevolutionJuan Agudelo-122231174-0.0771.6871.763
Columbus CrewJosh Williams-116171154-0.0781.2481.326
Vancouver WhitecapsAly Ghazal-120211048-0.0861.7181.803
Chicago FireDiego Campos-120211034-0.0871.7411.828
FC DallasJacori Hayes-11617998-0.091.4431.533
Colorado RapidsAxel Sjöberg-11415974-0.0921.2941.386
Orlando CityLamine Sane-11920923-0.0981.8531.95
Real Salt LakeSebastián Saucedo-11617906-0.0991.5891.689
Atlanta UnitedGreg Garza-11415865-0.1041.4571.561
Portland TimbersFanendo Adi-11213823-0.1091.3121.422
Toronto FCJozy Altidore-11415779-0.1161.6171.733
Vancouver WhitecapsNicolas Mezquida-11718757-0.1192.0212.14
Colorado RapidsJoe Mason-11112759-0.1191.3041.423
Seattle SoundersAlex Roldan-156695-0.1290.6470.777
Orlando CityStefano Pinho-11314584-0.1542.0032.158
Chicago FireGrant Lillard-189563-0.161.2791.439
Portland TimbersBill Tuiloma-11011554-0.1621.6251.787
Toronto FCDrew Moor-189479-0.1881.5031.691
Orlando CityEarl Edwards Jr.-1910392-0.232.0662.296
San Jose EarthquakesFatai Alashe-189353-0.2552.042.295
San Jose EarthquakesJoel Qwiberg-145298-0.3021.2081.51
San Jose EarthquakesKevin Partida-178290-0.312.1722.483
DC UnitedSteve Clark-156270-0.3331.6672
Montreal ImpactShamit Shome-156249-0.3611.8072.169
Seattle SoundersTony Alfaro-123220-0.4090.8181.227
Portland TimbersSteve Clark-145214-0.4211.6822.103
Los Angeles GalaxyBaggio Husidic-145206-0.4371.7482.184
Orlando CityCameron Lindley-145201-0.4481.7912.239
New England RevolutionBrian Wright-112199-0.4520.4520.905
Los Angeles FCAndre Horta-134192-0.4691.4061.875
Chicago FireStefan Cleveland-123180-0.511.5
Chicago FireChristian Dean-156178-0.5062.5283.034
Portland TimbersJeremy Ebobisse-134173-0.521.5612.081
FC DallasKris Reaves-112168-0.5360.5361.071
MinnesotaFernando Bob-123167-0.5391.0781.617
Colorado RapidsZac MacMath-112158-0.570.571.139
Atlanta UnitedSal Zizzo-112157-0.5730.5731.146
MinnesotaKevin Molino-134140-0.6431.9292.571
FC DallasPaxton Pomykal-101124-0.72600.726
Real Salt LakeAlfredo Ortuño-112119-0.7560.7561.513
Chicago FireRafael Ramos-112105-0.8570.8571.714
Philadelphia UnionAnthony Fontana-11299-0.9090.9091.818
Montreal ImpactMarco Donadel-10196-0.93800.938
New York Red BullsTommy Redding-13490-134
Seattle SoundersBryan Meredith-12390-123
Chicago FireMatt Polster-13489-1.0113.0344.045
Toronto FCJon Bakero-10180-1.12501.125
Orlando CityDillon Powers-10169-1.30401.304
FC DallasEma Twumasi-10145-202
Colorado RapidsCaleb Calvert-10135-2.57102.571
Los Angeles FCCalum Mallace-11229-3.1033.1036.207
New England RevolutionZachary Herivaux-10125-3.603.6
Toronto FCAlan Mariano Miño-10125-3.603.6
Atlanta UnitedGeorge Bello-10114-6.42906.429
DC UnitedKevin Ellis-10111-8.18208.182
New England RevolutionDiego Fagundez-238402285-0.0791.4971.575
New York CityJo Inge Berget-227291407-0.1281.7271.855
DC UnitedChris Durkin-226281322-0.1361.771.906
Colorado RapidsEnzo Martinez-221231239-0.1451.5251.671
Chicago FireBrandt Bronico-222241126-0.161.7581.918
New England RevolutionBrandon Bye-216181060-0.171.3581.528
Vancouver WhitecapsBrian Rowe-22022900-0.222.2
San Jose EarthquakesYeferson Quintana-21719793-0.2271.9292.156
Chicago FireAlan Gordon-21214784-0.231.3781.607
Columbus CrewNiko Hansen-21214760-0.2371.4211.658
Real Salt LakeLuis Silva-2911721-0.251.1231.373
Seattle SoundersMagnus Wolff Eikrem-257594-0.3030.7581.061
Sporting Kansas CityJaylin Lindsey-21012554-0.3251.6251.949
Columbus CrewHéctor Jiménez-279549-0.3281.1481.475
Chicago FireNicolas Hasler-279508-0.3541.241.594
New England RevolutionKrisztián Németh-21012466-0.3861.9312.318
Chicago FireDrew Conner-235398-0.4520.6781.131
New England RevolutionMichael Mancienne-224360-0.50.51
Los Angeles GalaxyTomas Hilliard-Arce-235304-0.5920.8881.48
DC UnitedJalen Robinson-257294-0.6121.5312.143
San Jose EarthquakesTommy Thompson-246289-0.6231.2461.869
Chicago FireDaniel Johnson-235261-0.691.0341.724
Colorado RapidsNiki Jackson-268254-0.7092.1262.835
Houston DynamoArturo Álvarez-246239-0.7531.5062.259
Philadelphia UnionDerrick Jones-224189-0.9520.9521.905
New York CityJames Sands-202156-1.15401.154
New York CityEloi Amagat-213152-1.1840.5921.776
Seattle SoundersHenry Wingo-202132-1.36401.364
New England RevolutionCristhian Machado-202119-1.51301.513
Los Angeles FCLuis Lopez-20290-202
Toronto FCBen Spencer-20282-2.19502.195
Sporting Kansas CityKharlton Belmar-20265-2.76902.769
Orlando CityPierre Da Silva-20249-3.67303.673
Orlando CityJosé Villarreal-20245-404
Montreal ImpactDominic Oduro-20232-5.62505.625
Portland TimbersTomas Conechny-20227-6.66706.667
Real Salt LakeRicky Lopez-Espin-20222-8.18208.182
Portland TimbersVytautas Andriuskevicius-20221-8.57108.571
New England RevolutionMatt Turner-339422340-0.1151.51.615
Montreal ImpactDaniel Lovitz-339422290-0.1181.5331.651
MinnesotaRasmus Schuller-339422111-0.1281.6631.791
Chicago FireDax McCarty-328311719-0.1571.4661.623
Vancouver WhitecapsJake Nerwinski-333361672-0.1611.7761.938
Houston DynamoBoniek Garcia-330331677-0.1611.611.771
DC UnitedZoltan Stieber-331341641-0.1651.71.865
Portland TimbersJulio Cascante-323261527-0.1771.3561.532
MinnesotaChristian Ramirez-328311384-0.1951.8212.016
Toronto FCJustin Morrow-328311340-0.2011.8812.082
New England RevolutionAntonio Mlinar Delamea-320231246-0.2171.4451.661
Toronto FCNicolas Hasler-31720947-0.2851.6161.901
Philadelphia UnionIlsinho-31215884-0.3051.2221.527
Seattle SoundersJordan McCrary-31013878-0.3081.0251.333
Vancouver WhitecapsDoneil Henry-31619810-0.3331.7782.111
MinnesotaSam Nicholson-3710525-0.5141.21.714
Philadelphia UnionWarren Creavalle-3811504-0.5361.4291.964
San Jose EarthquakesFrancois Affolter-31013496-0.5441.8152.359
MinnesotaMason Toye-347339-0.7961.0621.858
Vancouver WhitecapsErik Hurtado-336303-0.8910.8911.782
Columbus CrewEduardo Sosa-358274-0.9851.6422.628
Houston DynamoLuis Gil-336264-1.0231.0232.045
Houston DynamoEric Bird-303238-1.13401.134
Orlando CityRichmond Laryea-314154-1.7530.5842.338
Seattle SoundersLamar Neagle-303110-2.45502.455
Montreal ImpactLouis Beland-Goyette-303109-2.47702.477
MinnesotaHarrison Heath-30394-2.87202.872
Portland TimbersVictor Arboleda-30331-8.7108.71
Los Angeles FCRodrigo Pacheco-30317-15.882015.882
New England RevolutionAndrew Farrell-439432500-0.1441.4041.548
Columbus CrewWil Trapp-425292079-0.1731.0821.255
Montreal ImpactAlejandro Silva-432361923-0.1871.4981.685
Vancouver WhitecapsKendall Waston-432361768-0.2041.6291.833
Montreal ImpactKen Krolicki-421251589-0.2271.1891.416
DC UnitedDavid Ousted-428321530-0.2351.6471.882
Chicago FireJorge Corrales-418221113-0.3231.4561.779
MinnesotaCollen Warner-421251108-0.3251.7062.031
Toronto FCJay Chapman-41418847-0.4251.4881.913
DC UnitedNick DeLeon-41317836-0.4311.41.83
San Jose EarthquakesJahmir Hyka-41519813-0.4431.6612.103
San Jose EarthquakesJackson Yueill-41519786-0.4581.7182.176
Los Angeles GalaxyEmmanuel Boateng-41620779-0.4621.8492.311
Columbus CrewLuis Argudo-4812602-0.5981.1961.794
Portland TimbersDairon Asprilla-41115597-0.6031.6582.261
Vancouver WhitecapsJordon Mutch-4913596-0.6041.3591.963
MinnesotaMatthew Lampson-4812540-0.6671.3332
Houston DynamoJared Watts-459535-0.6730.8411.514
MinnesotaAngelo Rodriguez-448426-0.8450.8451.69
Vancouver WhitecapsBernie Ibini-437422-0.8530.641.493
Seattle SoundersHandwalla Bwana-437392-0.9180.6891.607
Real Salt LakeDemar Phillips-448360-112
Philadelphia UnionFabian Herbers-437357-1.0080.7561.765
Real Salt LakeAdam Henley-437260-1.3851.0382.423
Philadelphia UnionMatthew Real-415236-1.5250.3811.907
Real Salt LakeShawn Barry-426203-1.7730.8872.66
MinnesotaFrantz Pangop-404147-2.44902.449
Houston DynamoRonaldo Peña-415145-2.4830.6213.103
Toronto FCMitchell Taintor-41590-415
Los Angeles GalaxyDavid Bingham-554592610-0.1721.8622.034
Montreal ImpactEvan Bush-541462610-0.1721.4141.586
Los Angeles GalaxyJorgen Skjelvik-552572565-0.1751.8252
Philadelphia UnionAndre Blake-540452520-0.1791.4291.607
Philadelphia UnionAuston Trusty-540452520-0.1791.4291.607
MinnesotaDarwin Quintero-534391857-0.2421.6481.89
New England RevolutionWilfried Zahibo-528331726-0.2611.461.721
Philadelphia UnionJack Elliott-518231341-0.3361.2081.544
Chicago FireMo Adams-51318908-0.4961.2891.784
Montreal ImpactJeisson Vargas-51419845-0.5331.4912.024
San Jose EarthquakesGuram Kashia-51318810-0.5561.4442
Toronto FCRyan Telfer-51318800-0.5621.4632.025
San Jose EarthquakesLuis Felipe-51217778-0.5781.3881.967
Chicago FireLuis Solignac-51217702-0.6411.5382.179
Colorado RapidsMarlon Hairston-5914658-0.6841.2311.915
Portland TimbersDavid Guzman-5813622-0.7231.1581.881
Toronto FCTosaint Ricketts-51419554-0.8122.2743.087
Portland TimbersJake Gleeson-5914540-0.8331.52.333
Toronto FCJason Hernandez-51015533-0.8441.6892.533
Real Salt LakePablo Ruiz-5914516-0.8721.572.442
Chicago FireRaheem Edwards-5510516-0.8720.8721.744
DC UnitedIan Harkes-5611352-1.2781.5342.812
Orlando CityCarlos Ascues-538337-1.3350.8012.136
MinnesotaMaximiniano-527327-1.3760.551.927
Real Salt LakeDavid Horst-549312-1.4421.1542.596
Toronto FCJulian Dunn-516104-4.3270.8655.192
Chicago FireBastian Schweinsteiger-638442187-0.2471.5641.811
Philadelphia UnionFafa Picault-631371722-0.3141.621.934
Houston DynamoLeonardo-623291650-0.3271.2551.582
Vancouver WhitecapsStefan Marinovic-626321620-0.3331.4441.778
Orlando CityYoshi Yotun-633391610-0.3351.8452.18
Colorado RapidsDominique Badji-620261343-0.4021.341.742
Toronto FCNick Hagglund-622281149-0.471.7232.193
MinnesotaAlexi Gomez-619251122-0.4811.5242.005
Philadelphia UnionDavid Accam-615211123-0.4811.2021.683
Los Angeles GalaxyServando Carrasco-61521984-0.5491.3721.921
MinnesotaJerome Thiesson-61420971-0.5561.2981.854
Montreal ImpactVictor Cabrera-61521908-0.5951.4872.081
Seattle SoundersClint Dempsey-6713902-0.5990.6981.297
MinnesotaEric Miller-61117801-0.6741.2361.91
Vancouver WhitecapsAnthony Blondell-61218622-0.8681.7362.605
MinnesotaCarter Manley-6612502-1.0761.0762.151
Philadelphia UnionFabinho-6410481-1.1230.7481.871
MinnesotaWyatt Omsberg-628353-1.530.512.04
Orlando CityDonny Toia-617238-2.2690.3782.647
San Jose EarthquakesChris Wehan-628183-2.9510.9843.934
Montreal ImpactSamuel Piette-739462550-0.2471.3761.624
Philadelphia UnionCJ Sapong-726331957-0.3221.1961.518
Chicago FireAleksandar Katai-735421953-0.3231.6131.935
San Jose EarthquakesChris Wondolowski-732391864-0.3381.5451.883
DC UnitedFrederic Brillant-730371641-0.3841.6452.029
Columbus CrewLalas Abubakar-717241603-0.3930.9541.347
Los Angeles GalaxySebastian Lletget-722291436-0.4391.3791.818
San Jose EarthquakesHarold Cummings-719261424-0.4421.2011.643
Vancouver WhitecapsBrek Shea-722291210-0.5211.6362.157
Houston DynamoAdam Lundkvist-71017972-0.6480.9261.574
Toronto FCAger Aketxe-71118732-0.8611.3522.213
Montreal ImpactAnthony Jackson-Hamel-7411580-1.0860.6211.707
Colorado RapidsYannick Boli-7411563-1.1190.6391.758
MinnesotaCollin Martin-7512428-1.4721.0512.523
Portland TimbersMarco Farfan-7310425-1.4820.6352.118
Colorado RapidsGiles Barnes-707345-1.82601.826
MinnesotaMarc Burch-718313-2.0130.2882.3
Los Angeles GalaxyOla Kamara-846542240-0.3211.8482.17
Chicago FireNemanja Nikolic-833411967-0.3661.511.876
Portland TimbersLawrence Olum-819271438-0.5011.1891.69
Colorado RapidsJohan Blomberg-818261435-0.5021.1291.631
Toronto FCEriq Zavaleta-824321362-0.5291.5862.115
Chicago FireJonathan Campbell-81422910-0.7911.3852.176
San Jose EarthquakesJimmy Ockford-81523905-0.7961.4922.287
Chicago FireElliot Collier-81422904-0.7961.3942.19
MinnesotaTyrone Mears-81119883-0.8151.1211.937
Orlando CityChris Schuler-81422695-1.0361.8132.849
Orlando CityShane O'Neill-81018668-1.0781.3472.425
MinnesotaEthan Finlay-8614570-1.2630.9472.211
Orlando CityVictor Giro-8513418-1.7221.0772.799
MinnesotaAbu Danladi-8513410-1.7561.0982.854
Colorado RapidsMicheal Azira-819275-2.6180.3272.945
MinnesotaMiguel Ibarra-939482218-0.3651.5831.948
San Jose EarthquakesShea Salinas-921301451-0.5581.3031.861
Vancouver WhitecapsJose Aja-923321422-0.571.4562.025
Vancouver WhitecapsEfraín Juárez-917261159-0.6991.322.019
Orlando CityTony Rocha-91322728-1.1131.6072.72
Toronto FCLiam Fraser-9615525-1.5431.0292.571
Los Angeles GalaxyPerry Kitchen-1044542327-0.3871.7022.089
Chicago FireJohan Kappelhof-1034442154-0.4181.4211.838
Chicago FireRichard Sánchez-1035452116-0.4251.4891.914
Orlando CityWill Johnson-1027371777-0.5061.3671.874
Orlando CityChris Mueller-1031411750-0.5141.5942.109
Chicago FireKevin Ellis-1023331537-0.5861.3471.932
Orlando CityCristian Higuita-1021311272-0.7081.4862.193
Colorado RapidsBismark Adjei-Boateng-101121905-0.9941.0942.088
Los Angeles GalaxyDaniel Steres-101121870-1.0341.1382.172
Chicago FireTony Tchani-101323825-1.0911.4182.509
Toronto FCJordan Hamilton-101020803-1.1211.1212.242
Toronto FCClint Irwin-10919630-1.4291.2862.714
Colorado RapidsKellyn Acosta-10515590-1.5250.7632.288
Los Angeles FCTristan Blackmon-10717492-1.8291.283.11
MinnesotaMichael Boxall-1139502340-0.4231.51.923
Montreal ImpactJukka Raitala-1128392020-0.491.2481.738
MinnesotaBobby Shuttleworth-1132431980-0.51.4551.955
Vancouver WhitecapsMarcel de Jong-1119301290-0.7671.3262.093
Los Angeles GalaxyRolf Feltscher-111425957-1.0341.3172.351
Montreal ImpactMichael Petrasso-11718782-1.2660.8062.072
Chicago FireBrandon Vincent-1235472287-0.4721.3771.85
Los Angeles GalaxyAshley Cole-1246582236-0.4831.8522.335
San Jose EarthquakesMagnus Eriksson-1239512210-0.4891.5882.077
MinnesotaIbson-1234462067-0.5221.482.003
San Jose EarthquakesAnibal Godoy-1230421905-0.5671.4171.984
Colorado RapidsDeklan Wynne-1222341685-0.6411.1751.816
MinnesotaBrent Kallman-1224361445-0.7471.4952.242
Colorado RapidsDillon Serna-12921731-1.4771.1082.585
Orlando CityDom Dwyer-1331441794-0.6521.5552.207
Colorado RapidsSam Nicholson-1318311521-0.7691.0651.834
Orlando CityScott Sutter-1317301027-1.1391.492.629
Colorado RapidsKortne Ford-139221006-1.1630.8051.968
San Jose EarthquakesValeri Qazaishvili-1439532384-0.5291.4722.001
Orlando CityMohamed El-Munir-1432461729-0.7291.6662.394
San Jose EarthquakesAndrew Tarbell-1542572520-0.5361.52.036
San Jose EarthquakesNick Lima-1542572509-0.5381.5072.045
Orlando CityAmro Tarek-1527421575-0.8571.5432.4
Orlando CityJonathan Spector-15823970-1.3920.7422.134
Orlando CityRJ Allen-151227876-1.5411.2332.774
San Jose EarthquakesFlorian Jungwirth-1638542226-0.6471.5362.183
San Jose EarthquakesDanny Hoesen-1632482140-0.6731.3462.019
Vancouver WhitecapsFelipe-1634502077-0.6931.4732.167
Orlando CityJustin Meram-1618341273-1.1311.2732.404
Orlando CityJosue Colman-161127903-1.5951.0962.691
Colorado RapidsTim Howard-1830482360-0.6861.1441.831
Colorado RapidsEdgar Castillo-1830482305-0.7031.1711.874
Colorado RapidsJack Price-1829472300-0.7041.1351.839
Colorado RapidsJack McBean-1812301060-1.5281.0192.547
Colorado RapidsDanny Wilson-2118391755-1.0770.9232
Colorado RapidsTommy Smith-2231532520-0.7861.1071.893
Orlando CitySacha Kljestan-2331542070-11.3482.348
Orlando CityJoe Bendik-2531562128-1.0571.3112.368
Orlando CityOriol Rosell-2714411341-1.8120.942.752

 

Playoffs probability and more

Philadelphia has decreased from a 62.7% to a 59.0% chance of making the playoffs.

Next is the distribution of Philadelphia’s points against the MLS East’s sixth seed in all the simulations.

 

Philadelphia decreased from a 4.7% to a 3.1% chance of winning the Supporters’ Shield.

The Union has decreased from a 5.0% to a 4.1% chance of winning the MLS Cup.

* I now have assumed to exclude NASL clubs from USOC as their season was cancelled, and I would guess that those clubs that moved to the NPSL are too late to attempt qualification.

** At long last, I have now added in logic to expect regional match-ups. However, it is currently programmed a little differently than the real rules, by choosing the closest opponent rather than the nearest 3 opponents. As I only programmed location data for MLS and USL for this competition, lower division clubs are assigned random distances.

Philadelphia’s chances of having a U.S. Open Cup win increased from 4.2% to 4.3%.

 

 

The 2019 CONCACAF Champions League qualification from the U.S. was supposed to be the 2017 & 2018 winners of the U.S. Open Cup and the MLS Cup. This is why Kansas City has already qualified. However, since Toronto (not eligible for a U.S. qualification slot) won the MLS Cup, that slot (and any other future Canadian or Kansas City wins) will be given to the club with the most regular season points over both 2017 and 2018.

Philadelphia has decreased from an 10.2% to a 8.8% chance of qualifying for the 2019 edition of the CONCACAF Champions League.

The following are Philadelphia’s odds at different prizes over time.

The following are the probabilities of each final playoffs placement for Philadelphia.

The following shows the summary of the simulations in an easy table format.

TeamConfptsWLTGFGAGDpowerRkpwrScrPlyfsMLSCupShldUSOCChmpCANChmpCCLQualCCLChmpconfRegSeasFinishregSeasFinishplyfFinish
Atlanta UnitedEast69.520.867.271.141.130.111.90410029.356.20NA90NA1.51.63.1
New York Red BullsEast67.820.98.1565.635.929.721.81910028.138.80NA3401.71.93.2
New York CityEast6318.78.3763.944.619.231.69510092.90NA51.1NA2.83.75.2
FC DallasWest61.617.87.98.455.344.211.141.64899.97.61.40NA7.701.94.54.8
Sporting Kansas CityWest59.817.69.37.164.444.519.951.62999.59.20.70NA100NA2.35.14.8
Los Angeles FCWest57.616.49.38.367.754.513.261.6198.86.300NA6.3NA3.16.25.8
Seattle SoundersWest54.816.311.8647.336.510.871.56493.23.800NA4.404.17.67.1
Portland TimbersWest53.61510.48.752.649.92.691.50382.62.200NA2.2NA4.98.78.5
Columbus CrewEast53.415.110.8844.542.42.181.54299.32.400NA2.8NA4.38.77.7
Real Salt LakeWest51.115.113.15.853.556.3-2.8141.33671.50.400NA0.4NA5.79.910.1
Vancouver WhitecapsWest48.913.512.18.35765.7-8.7131.38636.50.30NA00NA6.711.511.9
Philadelphia UnionEast48.114.815.53.747.253.4-6.2111.41189.20.4036.1NA36.4NA5.311.610.4
Los Angeles GalaxyWest46.812.612.39.261.362.1-0.7151.26317.80.100NA0.1NA7.412.713.2
DC UnitedEast4612.713.57.860.3555.3121.41170.70.800NA0.8NA61311.6
Montreal ImpactEast41.112.517.83.742.657.7-15.1161.18722.100NA00NA7.415.615.1
Toronto FCEast40.110.915.77.462.763.7-0.9101.43113.70.10NA10010007.816.215.9
New England RevolutionEast38.89.814.99.352.559-6.6181.0744.6000NA0NA8.417.217.1
Minnesota UnitedWest37.711.619.62.849.266.8-17.6191.0480.2000NA0NA9.317.317.4
Houston DynamoWest36.59.416.38.355.254.90.3171.08500063.9NA63.9NA9.718.218.2
Orlando CityEast32.19.821.52.750.877.9-27.2201.0330.2000NA0NA10.120.120.1
Chicago FireEast30.97.9197.147.466.4-18.9211.0260000NA0NA10.520.820.8
Colorado RapidsWest29.97.619.37.138.863.4-24.6220.9270000NA001121.321.3
San Jose EarthquakesWest24.85.119.39.649.164.3-15.1230.8890000NA0NA11.922.722.7

Next is a table showing the difference between this forecast and the last forecast.

TeamConfptsWLTGFGAGDpowerRkpwrScrPlyfsMLSCupShldUSOCChmpCANChmpCCLQualCCLChmpconfRegSeasFinishregSeasFinishplyfFinish
Atlanta UnitedEast69.520.867.271.141.130.111.90410029.356.20NA90NA1.51.63.1
New York Red BullsEast67.820.98.1565.635.929.721.81910028.138.80NA3401.71.93.2
New York CityEast6318.78.3763.944.619.231.69510092.90NA51.1NA2.83.75.2
FC DallasWest61.617.87.98.455.344.211.141.64899.97.61.40NA7.701.94.54.8
Sporting Kansas CityWest59.817.69.37.164.444.519.951.62999.59.20.70NA100NA2.35.14.8
Los Angeles FCWest57.616.49.38.367.754.513.261.6198.86.300NA6.3NA3.16.25.8
Seattle SoundersWest54.816.311.8647.336.510.871.56493.23.800NA4.404.17.67.1
Portland TimbersWest53.61510.48.752.649.92.691.50382.62.200NA2.2NA4.98.78.5
Columbus CrewEast53.415.110.8844.542.42.181.54299.32.400NA2.8NA4.38.77.7
Real Salt LakeWest51.115.113.15.853.556.3-2.8141.33671.50.400NA0.4NA5.79.910.1
Vancouver WhitecapsWest48.913.512.18.35765.7-8.7131.38636.50.30NA00NA6.711.511.9
Philadelphia UnionEast48.114.815.53.747.253.4-6.2111.41189.20.4036.1NA36.4NA5.311.610.4
Los Angeles GalaxyWest46.812.612.39.261.362.1-0.7151.26317.80.100NA0.1NA7.412.713.2
DC UnitedEast4612.713.57.860.3555.3121.41170.70.800NA0.8NA61311.6
Montreal ImpactEast41.112.517.83.742.657.7-15.1161.18722.100NA00NA7.415.615.1
Toronto FCEast40.110.915.77.462.763.7-0.9101.43113.70.10NA10010007.816.215.9
New England RevolutionEast38.89.814.99.352.559-6.6181.0744.6000NA0NA8.417.217.1
Minnesota UnitedWest37.711.619.62.849.266.8-17.6191.0480.2000NA0NA9.317.317.4
Houston DynamoWest36.59.416.38.355.254.90.3171.08500063.9NA63.9NA9.718.218.2
Orlando CityEast32.19.821.52.750.877.9-27.2201.0330.2000NA0NA10.120.120.1
Chicago FireEast30.97.9197.147.466.4-18.9211.0260000NA0NA10.520.820.8
Colorado RapidsWest29.97.619.37.138.863.4-24.6220.9270000NA001121.321.3
San Jose EarthquakesWest24.85.119.39.649.164.3-15.1230.8890000NA0NA11.922.722.7

The following shows the difficulty for each team’s remaining schedule. Higher values means an easier remaining schedule.

The following shows the expectations for upcoming Philadelphia matches:

Model Validation

The following shows SEBA’s model error compared with random guessing. To do this, we save forecasts for the entire season’s games for every forecast’s data, and update the error charts all the way through the season.

Lower error is better.

USL
Power Rankings

SEBA has Bethlehem remaining at 22nd.

Playoffs probability and more

Bethlehem increased from 48.7% to 54.5% chance of making the playoffs. (Sorry for the cutoff table, I’m working on it, but the interactive charts linked above should be easier to read)

Bethlehem increased from 2.4% to 3.1% chance of claiming the USL regular season title.

Bethlehem’s odds of winning the USL championship increased from 3.0% to 3.2%.

The following is Bethlehem’s odds at different prizes over time.

The following shows the probability of each post-playoff ranking finish:

The following is the strength of remaining schedules for each team. Higher values mean an easier remaining schedule.

The following are the upcoming expectations for Bethlehem matches.

 

NWSL

The following are the initial projections for the 2018 NWSL season. These are based solely on matches from 2017 and the additional factor of distance traveled.

The following shows the remaining strength of schedule, as we project. Higher values represent easier remaining schedules.

 

 

8 Comments

  1. Man this feature is overwhelming, but a favorite of mine and getting better each season. I dig the interactive charts available at the top. But the grammar nerd in me needed to speak up. 🙂

    http://theoatmeal.com/comics/sneak_peek

    Thanks for the great work!

    • Inline with the 538 estimates. Will be interested to see how the two analysis align over the course of the year.

      • Chris Sherman says:

        Interesting. While I like 538, in general, I have a couple problems with their methodology for MLS forecasts, so it’s interesting to hear that we drew similar conclusions anyway.

  2. I stand in awe of the complexities of laying out these images every week.
    .
    would it make any sense for the interactive links for the USL to be at the top of the USL segment, or is that logistically troublesome?

    • Chris Sherman says:

      It’s not a logistical problem, I’d just be afraid that they would become buried in the long post and hard for readers to find.

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