Photo Marjorie Elzey

As we civilians try to anticipate the roster with which the Philadelphia Union will navigate the two seasons of its league’s calendar transition in calendar year 2027 and the first half of 2028, Cavan Sullivan’s likely status is one of the first questions needing an answer.

Manchester City looms as the great unknown.

To help facilitate an answer, below we chart Sullivan’s starts and game minutes this year.  We present our charts with the most recent games listed first, since their data is the more relevant to deciphering what ManCity might decide. In each chart’s right-hand column we give the opponent’s place in the MLS table at the time of writing as an imperfect measure of the strength of Sullivan’s opponent.    

Following the first chart of all his games, we next chart only his games against the current would-be MLS playoff teams and the two Mexican soccer giants that Philadelphia has played this year. Then we finish by charting how many of the Union’s remaining ten opponents, including Cincinnati who was shellacked last night 5-0, are currently above the playoff line.

Concentrating on the better opponents emulates what many coaches in many sports do to evaluate their teams in their preseasons. Because scoring two dozen goals against Our Lady of the Crippled and the Blind teaches a coach little or nothing, playing better teams instead will expose a team’s weaknesses technically, tactically, and psychologically. When corrected such exposures can lead to strong seasons.

Below, especially in the earlier part of the season before the break, we see that Sullivan was being introduced to what MLS means. After the break he is learning how well he can play within it. Cincinnati’s 11th minute red card makes last night’s game an outlier. “A”=assist; “G”=goal; “Y”=yellow card; “DNP”=DidNotPlay

Here is Sullivan’s data against MLS’s current (2 PM, Weds, Sep-9th) playoff teams and the two Mexican giants Philadelphia has played this year. Purely on the basis of logic, and what little we know of Sullivan’s personality, we suspect Manchester City wanted to see how he would do against Club America and Cruz Azul and that Sullivan himself wanted those tests. We notice that the Union’s then head coach Bradley Carnell gave him every chance for maximal performance in the first test by resting him both before and after that first Club America match.

A goal and seven assists against playoff contenders is a good performance. Since goals are more glamorous than assists, it is not as gaudy as his recent stretch since August 16th against some of the weaker teams of MLS.

To conclude, Cavan Sullivan recalls former Union midfielder Jack McGlynn. McGlynn devastated Major League Soccer’s weak, but had less of an impact against good teams that had a competent scheme to defend him, the players to execute it, and had not thrown in the towel at half time. We will have data confirming or denying the validity of the comparison by the end of the season.

We need to see how the teenager does in the last ten — or hopefully more — games of the season to have a better idea whether Manchester City will intervene and remove him to an affiliated club in Europe to better stimulate his development. 

Here are the Union’s remaining regular season games and their places in the table as of Tuesday, September 8th, i.e., before Cincinnati. After Cincinnati, the Union lie in 8th qualifying to host the wild-card game. But only three of their previous nine MLS opponents are currently in the elite above the playoff line.

 By contrast only three of the Union’s last eleven opponents are below the playoff line, after Cincinnati last night. The season’s run-in will provide stronger challenges. If Sullivan the Younger continues to dominate into the playoffs, his future employers may take him over to Europe — he cannot yet work in England itself because of Brexit — to further the challenge and engender greater growth.  As a 17-year-old he would be eligible to play professional soccer under the European Union’s work rules.