Photo Marjorie Elzey
As we civilians try to anticipate the roster with which the Philadelphia Union will navigate the two seasons of its league’s calendar transition in calendar year 2027 and the first half of 2028, Cavan Sullivan’s likely status is one of the first questions needing an answer.
Manchester City looms as the great unknown.
To help facilitate an answer, below we chart Sullivan’s starts and game minutes this year. We present our charts with the most recent games listed first, since their data is the more relevant to deciphering what ManCity might decide. In each chart’s right-hand column we give the opponent’s place in the MLS table at the time of writing as an imperfect measure of the strength of Sullivan’s opponent.
Following the first chart of all his games, we next chart only his games against the current would-be MLS playoff teams and the two Mexican soccer giants that Philadelphia has played this year. Then we finish by charting how many of the Union’s remaining ten opponents, including Cincinnati who was shellacked last night 5-0, are currently above the playoff line.
Concentrating on the better opponents emulates what many coaches in many sports do to evaluate their teams in their preseasons. Because scoring two dozen goals against Our Lady of the Crippled and the Blind teaches a coach little or nothing, playing better teams instead will expose a team’s weaknesses technically, tactically, and psychologically. When corrected such exposures can lead to strong seasons.
Below, especially in the earlier part of the season before the break, we see that Sullivan was being introduced to what MLS means. After the break he is learning how well he can play within it. Cincinnati’s 11th minute red card makes last night’s game an outlier. “A”=assist; “G”=goal; “Y”=yellow card; “DNP”=DidNotPlay
|
Date |
Opponent | Start? | Game minutes |
Opponent’s place in MLS’s table on September 8th |
|
Sep-9 |
FC Cincinnati | Yes | 75′ A A A | 6th |
| Sep-5 | CF Montreal | Yes | 82’ G |
15th |
|
Aug-29 |
Red Bull New York | Yes | 80’ G |
10th |
|
Aug-22 |
Austin FC | Yes | 74’ G |
14th |
|
Aug-19 |
Inter Miami CF | Yes | 80’ Red |
2nd |
|
Aug-16 |
New York City FC | Yes | 80’ A A |
7th |
|
Aug-13 |
Santos Laguna | No | Dressed, DNP |
— |
|
Aug-9 |
Necaxa | Yes | 60’ A G | — |
| Aug-6 | Cruz Azul | Yes | 90’ |
— |
|
Aug-1 |
Atlanta Utd | Yes | 90’ |
14th |
|
Jul-25 |
Seattle Sounders FC | Yes | 89’ | 13th |
| Jul-22 | Red Bull New York | Yes | 85’ |
10th |
|
May-24 |
Inter Miami CF | Yes | 67’ A | 2nd |
| May-16 | Columbus Crew | Yes | 90’ |
13th |
|
May-13 |
Orlando City | No | 45’ G |
8th |
|
May-9 |
New England Rev | Yes | 73’ |
4th |
|
May-2 |
Nashville SC | Yes | 69’ | 1st |
| Apr-25 | Columbus Crew | Yes | 66’ |
13th |
|
Apr-22 |
Toronto FC | No | 8’ |
11th |
|
Apr-18 |
D. C. United | No | 26’ |
12th |
|
Apr-11 |
CF Montreal | No | 2’ | 15th |
| Apr-4 | Charlotte FC | No | 13’ A Y |
5th |
|
Mar-21 |
Chicago Fire | Yes | 61’ | 3rd |
| Mar-18 | Club America | Yes | 63’ |
— |
|
Mar-14 |
Atlanta Utd | No | Dressed, DNP |
14th |
|
Mar-10 |
Club America | Yes | 45’ |
— |
|
Mar-7 |
San Jose | No | Dressed, DNP |
6th |
|
Mar-1 |
New York City FC | No | 7’ |
7th |
|
Feb-26 |
Defence Force | Yes | 90’ |
— |
|
Feb-21 |
D. C. United | No | 21’ |
12th |
|
Feb-18 |
Defence Force | No | 25’ |
— |
Here is Sullivan’s data against MLS’s current (2 PM, Weds, Sep-9th) playoff teams and the two Mexican giants Philadelphia has played this year. Purely on the basis of logic, and what little we know of Sullivan’s personality, we suspect Manchester City wanted to see how he would do against Club America and Cruz Azul and that Sullivan himself wanted those tests. We notice that the Union’s then head coach Bradley Carnell gave him every chance for maximal performance in the first test by resting him both before and after that first Club America match.
|
Date |
Opponent | Start? |
Game minutes |
|
Sep-9 |
FC Cincinnati | Yes |
75′ A A A |
|
Aug-19 |
Inter Miami CF | Yes | 80’ Red |
| Aug-16 | New York City FC | Yes |
80’ A A |
|
May-24 |
Inter Miami CF | Yes | 67’ A |
| May-13 | Orlando City | No |
45’ G |
|
May-9 |
New England Rev | Yes | 73’ |
| May-2 | Nashville SC | Yes |
69’ |
|
Apr-4 |
Charlotte FC | No | 13’ A Y |
| Mar-21 | Chicago Fire | Yes |
61’ |
|
Mar-7 |
San Jose | No | Dressed, DNP |
| Mar-1 | New York City FC | No |
7’ |
|
Here are his three opportunities against the two Mexican Giants |
|||
|
Aug-6 |
Cruz Azul | Yes | 90’ |
| Mar-18 |
Club America |
Yes |
63’ |
|
Mar-10 |
Club America | Yes | 45’ |
A goal and seven assists against playoff contenders is a good performance. Since goals are more glamorous than assists, it is not as gaudy as his recent stretch since August 16th against some of the weaker teams of MLS.
To conclude, Cavan Sullivan recalls former Union midfielder Jack McGlynn. McGlynn devastated Major League Soccer’s weak, but had less of an impact against good teams that had a competent scheme to defend him, the players to execute it, and had not thrown in the towel at half time. We will have data confirming or denying the validity of the comparison by the end of the season.
We need to see how the teenager does in the last ten — or hopefully more — games of the season to have a better idea whether Manchester City will intervene and remove him to an affiliated club in Europe to better stimulate his development.
Here are the Union’s remaining regular season games and their places in the table as of Tuesday, September 8th, i.e., before Cincinnati. After Cincinnati, the Union lie in 8th qualifying to host the wild-card game. But only three of their previous nine MLS opponents are currently in the elite above the playoff line.
|
Date |
Opponent | Venue | Opponent’s place in MLS’s
table on September 8th |
| Sep-9 | Cincinnati | Home |
6th |
|
Sep-13 |
San Diego | Away | 9th |
| Sep-19 | Kansas City | Away |
15th |
|
Sep-26 |
Orlando | Home | 8th |
| Oct-10 | Real Salt Lake | Home |
10th |
|
Oct-14 |
Chicago | Away | 3rd |
| Oct-17 | Charlotte | Home |
5th |
|
Oct-24 |
New England | Home | 4th |
| Oct-28 | Nashville | Away |
1st |
|
Oct-31 |
Cincinnati | Away | 6th |
| Nov-7 | Toronto | Home |
11th |
By contrast only three of the Union’s last eleven opponents are below the playoff line, after Cincinnati last night. The season’s run-in will provide stronger challenges. If Sullivan the Younger continues to dominate into the playoffs, his future employers may take him over to Europe — he cannot yet work in England itself because of Brexit — to further the challenge and engender greater growth. As a 17-year-old he would be eligible to play professional soccer under the European Union’s work rules.
I’m not sure it makes sense to bring him to Europe in the January window unless they have a place for him in a higher quality league than MLS where he is also going to get significant playing time. If he’s just going to get sub minutes it probably makes sense to leave him in Philly.
Thanks for looking into this. It’s very interesting. I think it’s very likely that CS will be with the U until the January ’28 window. As Andy noted how much benefit is there in spending 1 season in Belgium, for example. January is more likely because I think his 18th birthday will occur after the September window, so he won’t be old enough for England.
I suspect ManCity would have enough clout to get him in country in July of ’28 and figure out a way for him to be practicing, working out, and playing in friendlies until his 18th birthday.
.
If in the 2027-2028 season he and the Union are doing well, the player will not necessarily want to leave in the middle of a season I am guessing. And he’s not going to be affecting ManCity’s first team. He will be somewhere in their developmental structure while he acclimates and learns the ManCity way of playing the game. Their U21s were where he was working last time I heard of him being over there and playing, but I have not followed that carefully and do not know the ManCity developmental structure at all.
.
I am guessing he would be taken to Belgium only if he really tears up these last ten games and carries Philly into the playoffs for at least two rounds.
Is Belgium the only option? CFG also has Troyes in Ligue 1, Girona and Palermo in the Spanish and Italian second divisions. If one of those teams earns promotion, could he be sent there?
–
My expectation is if he continues his level of play the rest of this season and during the sprint season, he is moved to Europe in summer 2027 so he has a full preseason with whatever club on the continent CFG has decided to loan him to. I’ll be surprised if he is with Union at the start of the 27-28 season.
or he could be moved to NYCFC????
New York City FC (NYCFC): Plays in Major League Soccer (MLS) and is majority-owned by the City Football Group.
Other Clubs:
The group includes teams like Girona FC, Troyes, Melbourne City FC, and Yokohama F. Marinos, serving as independent professional clubs in a multi-club ownership model.
So Stas scored again for Rhode Island… played the entire game, yellow card late. Hope he’s coming back for the Sprint Season.