Photo: Ron Soliman
Who: Philadelphia Union (20W-8L-6D, 66 points, Supporters’ Shield winners, 1st place in the East Conference) vs. Chicago Fire (15W-11L-8D, 53 points, 8th place Eastern Conference)
What: 2025 MLS Playoffs, Round 1, Game 1 (best of three)
Where: Subaru Park, Chester PA
When: Sunday, October 26, 5:30 PM EST
Watch: MLS Season Pass on Apple TV, FS1, Fox Deportes; Listen on 97.5 FM
Whistle: REF: Sergii Boiko, AR1: Adam Wienckowski, AR2: Jeffrey Swartzel, 4TH: Marcos DeOliveira, VAR: Kevin Stott, AVAR: Fabio Tovar
One season after missing the MLS Playoffs for what seemed like the first time in an eternity (2017), the Philadelphia Union return as the #1 seed in the East and as the Supporters’ Shield winners, which means home pitch advantage throughout the playoffs. Coming into town are the Chicago Fire led by first-year coach Greg Berhalter. The Boys in Blue escaped Chicago in June with 3 points thanks to a Bruno Damiani penalty, and then put a 4-0 beat down on the Fire two months later in the return fixture in Chester.
Scouting Report: Chicago Fire (W-W-D-D-W)
Chicago are back in the postseason for the first time since 2017, and couldn’t be in much better recent form under first-year head coach Gregg Berhalter. The Fire were unbeaten in their last five regular-season games (3W-0L-2D), and kept that going Wednesday night with a 3-1 home victory over Orlando City in the Eastern Conference Wild Card game, their first playoff win since 2009. Berhalter’s side leans on the potent attacking duo of striker Hugo Cuypers and MLS Newcomer of the Year contender Philip Zinckernagel. The pair will be crucial for Chicago’s chances of advancing to the next round should they pull off an upset over the Union, who got the better of them twice during the regular season. Those two, plus Brian Gutierrez, lead a frontline that finished second in goals scored this season (68).
While they’ve found their attacking touch, the Fire’s defense will be tested by a pressing Union attack. The Fire have only won once in their last seven meetings against the Union. One win in their last seven against Philadelphia does not inspire confidence, so they may be up against it in this first fixture, especially after losing four times in that run of head-to-heads. The primary issue for Berhalter is his team’s defensive resilience, or lack thereof, as they conceded a total of 60 goals in the regular season, the most of any of the teams in the postseason.
Player Availability:
- OUT: Andre Franco (knee)
- OUT: Leonardo Barroso (lower body)
- OUT: Viktor Radojevic (lower body)
- OUT: Chris Mueller (other)
Disciplinary Summary: None
Scouting Report: Philadelphia Union (L-W-W-W-L)
The Union defied all expectations in head coach Bradley Carnell’s first season at the helm, just one year removed from missing the playoffs for the first time since 2017. Honestly, most fans and writers viewed this as a rebuilding season. But a few key additions by GM Ernst Tanner, Carnell’s slight change in formation and style of play, and a few players growing into their roles in their second season with the the club, helped turn a rebuilding into a truly cohesive team with some actual depth at many positions, all of which led to winning the Supporters’ Shield for the second time in club history.
The Union boasted the second-highest point total in club history, thanks in large part to their sensational defense. The Union allowed a league-low 35 goals this season (even accounting for seven against Vancouver), with center backs Jakob Glesnes and Olwethu Makhanya playing key roles. While not as fast as he once was, Glesnes returned to his pre-injury form and partnered with the young and fast Makhanya – a pairing that works well. Kai Wagner put together another season worthy of a MLS Best XI award, while Jovan Lukić, Indiana Vassilev, and Danley Jean Jacques have been indispensable across the midfield. Though Quinn Sullivan is surely missed, late summer addition Milan Iloski added even more offensive fire power. Finally, Israel international and All-Star Tai Baribo leads the strikers. With a roster lacking a superstar but filled top-to-bottom with talented players and a Sigi Schmid MLS Coach of the Year nominee in charge, the could Union exercise the demons of 2022 and actually win their first-ever MLS Cup.
Coming off an emotional 1-0 win over NYCFC that secured the Supporters’ Shield on October 4, the Union ran out the season with a 2-0 defeat against a Charlottte FC team playing for important seeding. Importantly for the Union it gave the starters and some bench players valuable game time after a two week lay-off, and the Boys in Blue all escaped with their health. Expect the Union to stick with what has worked for most of the season, the 4-2-2-2 midfield box formation and the high intensity press.
Normally inked into the starting lineup, Baribo has been relegated to the bench the last two matches, perhaps due to international call-ups and travel. Expect Baribo to once again start, but partner with Mikael Uhre, who has just looked hungrier than Damiani. Expect Iloski and Vassilev to play as the two attacking midfielders, while Danley and Lukić look to hold down the defensive midfield. Frankie Westfield’s return from international duty could mean he starts at right back with a return to the bench for Nate Harriel, but there is no doubt Kai Wagner anchors the left side. Jakob Glesnes and Olwethu Makhanya are a lock to play in front of keeper Andre Blake.
Player Availability:
- OUT: Quinn Sullivan (knee)
- OUT: Jeremy Rafanello (hamstring)
Disciplinary Summary: None
Matchup to Watch:
Can the defensive duo of Glesnes and Makhanya keep Cupyers and Zinckernagel off the scoreboard?
Player to Watch: Milan Iloski
With Quinn Sullivan out of the lineup, Rafanello out as well, Cavan Sullivan probably not ready to start a playoff game, and Vassilev tasked with constant pressing, look for Iloski to start in an attacking midfield position and effectively play as a roving 10 when the Union are in possession, allowing him to create chances for both himself and the strikers.
Prediction: Union 3-1 Chicago Fire
In addition to going 6-1 against the Fire in their last seven matches, the Boys in Blue are undefeated against the Chicago Fire in their last 10 matches at the Soob, winning eight in that run of games. Expect more of the same.
The U *should* win it, especially at home. Chicago’s defense is suspect, having conceded 60 goals during the regular season. Plus, their bench is a bit thin with injuries.
. . .
Still, “any given Sunday”, and roadkill teams don’t make playoffs. Their Wild Card win over Orlando was dominant, thus a confidence builder. As clear underdogs playing away, they’re playing with house chips, so we have the pressure to live up to expectations.
. . .
It’s a ‘test match’ in many respects between two clubs who aren’t ‘buying success’ like Miami, etc. It’s a journeymen’s opportunity to prove themselves. I’m looking forward to it.
100% agree
Update: MLS Injury Report does not list Rafanello, who is apparently available tonight.
My starting 11:
Blake
Wagner
Glesnes
Makhanya
Mbaizo
Lukic
Danley
Iloski
C. Sullivan
Uhre
Baribo
Doop!!!!!!!
That may be your starting 11, but I don’t think it will be Carnell’s. No way Cavan gets his first start in the playoffs instead of Vasilev and no way Mbaizo starts with both Harriel and Westfield available.
Agree with Andy. Mbaizo is 3rd string for a reason.
Cavan will not start but could see some minutes.
Damiani will start as a striker.
Anti MLS Rant to follow:
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Once again this time of year we are reminded how stupid and misguided MLS leadership is. While most of the world realizes that the chances of going to PK’s should be minimalized, MLS does its best to increase the chances that PK’s get used in some of its most important games. This despite the fact that it can cost the league revenue without having a chance to increase it.
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I understand the concept of having a best of 3 so as to both give the higher seed the advantage while also making sure the lower seed gets to host a playoff game. But there is no reason to go to PK’s in either of the first 2 games. Let all of the games potentially end in draws and then look at where things stand after game 3.
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If one team wins the first 2 games in regulation, they win the series. But make it so that if 1 of the first 2 games ends in a draw you play the 3rd game. The way it is now, if a team wins 1 game and wins PK’s in the second, there is no 3rd, which cost the league revenue. But in their goal to prove how dumb management is, they go to PK’s regardless of the cost.
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What they should do is if one team wins 2 games or if they win 1 game and there are 2 draws, that team wins the series. If each team wins 1 game and the other is a draw, then look at goal differential. Only if goal differential is tied or all 3 games ended in draws (when goal differential is tied by definition) do you go to PK’s. That way you are more likely to have a game 3 and less likely to have PK’s.
Spot on. PKs should be a necessary evil for utterly deadlocked scenarios that can’t end that way, and after overtime. They’re so gimmicky that the matches are officially recorded as draws, just noting who advanced on them.
. . .
If someone wins one of the matches 6-1 but loses two by only a goal apiece, it’s fair and routine for the team with more Ws to advance because they actually won more matches despite the total goal differential. But if those two ‘wins’ result from PKs following draws, that’s nonsense.
+1
One, I hate the best of three series, but you are correct that it is the only way to guarantee both home pitch advantage to the higher seed and have both teams get a game.
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Two, your idea in the last paragraph makes a lot of sense. Which of course means MLS will never adopt it.
Good idea. The current PK plan stinks. However, the 3 game 1st round is definitely needed to reward the season performance of the higher seed team. Plus, as we saw with the Union that one year, too much rest for a high seed can send a team out quick…if they come out with some rust.
Very interesting idea. MLS should do it.
Starting 11 expectations:
Blake
Makhanya
Glesnes
Wagner
Westfield? (He’s doing good)
Danley
Lukic
Iloski
Bedoya
Damiani
Uhre? (Baribo not starting lately)