Photo Marjorie Elzey

We have vague memories of a headline temporarily flashing past our eyes on the MLS NEXT Pro website Sunday evening after Decision Day had finished in the east. It said  the details of which eastern conference teams would be playing which and when in the first round of the playoffs would be announced this coming Thursday. Monday’s announcement of Union II’s playoff day and time fit with that memory.

Since we have retirees’ luxuries of time to dive deep into speculative waters, we have tried to imagine by what criteria the three eastern sides facing playoff opponent choice might make their decisions.

• Overall record seems an obvious criterion, but one that is also oversimple.
• Away record has higher specificity since choosing an opponent who is weaker playing on the road makes good sense.
• Head-to-head results seem obvious. But what is not obvious are the specific characteristics of each match. These are affected by variations among club developmental philosophies, interactions with academy athletic and academic schedules, player availability on the day, and the pace of the schedule at that point in the season. The phrases “dead legs,” “call-ups,”and “graduation” concretely illustrate a multitude of relevant variables.
• Since it is MLS NEXT Pro, proficiency in penalty kick shootouts might be a tangential consideration.
• Run of form at the end of the season may perhaps be helpful. It carries the pitfalls of having to read the psychology of the programs involved as well as that of their decision-maker(s).

Defense  vs offense

•  Huntsville has conceded the fewest goals in the conference and scored the fourth-most, giving them the second -highest goal difference in the conference behind Union II itself.
• Chicago has scored the most goals in the conference, but allowed the fourth-most, giving them only the fifth-highest goal difference of 15.
• On the season Cincinnati and Carolina’s goal differences are -1 and -2 respectively.

Who finished hot or cold?

• Cincinnati won their last four, twice against playoff teams, both of those at home in northern Kentucky. They should be full of confidence, and the week off for the international break should rest their legs.
• Huntsville won their last three, once against a playoff team, that having been at home.
• Carolina drew twice and lost once.
• Chicago drew once and lost three times. In all three defeats they gave up 5 goals per match.

The crystal ball

Our infamous, cloudy, cracked, inaccurate crystal ball says Michael Bradley and Red Bull II will choose Chicago because of their poor run of form at the end and their mediocre defensive record, especially recently. Red Bull II were beaten by Chicago 9-2 in late July and might be motivated towards revenge.

The ball further says that Ryan Richter and Philly will gamble and want to prove themselves against the best in-form opponent. They will choose the blue-orange flame–  hotter than red, in addition to being the team’s colors —  of Cincinnati who must travel to Subaru Park. Cincy’s form will force Philly to raise their game as preparation for the more difficult opponents to come as Philly advances further on into the bracket.

That would leave New England to choose between Huntsville and Carolina. We suspect they would choose Carolina.

That would leave Chattanooga to host Huntsville in the season’s third battle of the middle reaches of the Tennessee Valley Authority.  Chattanooga lies upstream of Huntsville on the southernmost section of the Tennessee River. That section has four TVA dams and their consequent lakes or reservoirs between the two cities.

Appendix: Our data

Records are given in W-L-D sequence. Under head-to-head results dates are given under the result. “SOWs” stands for shootout wins.

The columns of the data chart may not align properly on a cell phone’s display.