Photo Ron Soliman
Here are the Philadelphia Union’s few remaining paths to the playoffs as best we can discern them.
The playoff qualifier is points won (P). The first tiebreaker is wins (W). The second is goal difference (D). We append a chart below.
With one game left to play there is a three-way tie on 37 points for 10th, 11th, and 12th places among Toronto, Philadelphia, and Atlanta. But Toronto’s season is complete and they are therefore eliminated because they cannot reach the 40 points needed to tie 8th place D. C. and 9th place Montreal on points.
The Union — and Atlanta — can only tie D. C. or Montreal on points.
There are only three combination of results that would allow Philadelphia to make the playoffs, by tying on points and wins and qualifying on goal difference.
- D. C. must lose to Charlotte, AND Montreal must lose to NYC, AND Philadelphia must beat Cincinnati. Philly would tie both D. C. and Montreal on points and wins and would win out for 8th place on goal difference.
- EITHER D. C. OR Montreal must earn zero points from Charlotte or NYC, AND Philadelphia must earn all three points from Cincinnati. Philadelphia and the other 9th place team would then be tied on points and wins, and the Union would claim 9th on goal difference.
Atlanta could mirror Philadelphia but would lose out on goal difference.
Appendix
| Playoffs Chances Analysis Chart | ||||||||
| Updated 9:22 AM ET, Mo 7-Oct | ||||||||
| Club | L | P | M | W | D | Home | Away | |
| 1 | sMiami | 1 | 71 | 74 | 21 | 26 | NEng; | — |
| 2 | xColumbus | 2 | 60 | 66 | 17 | 27 | NEng; | NYRB; |
| 3 | xCincinnati | 1 | 56 | 59 | 17 | 9 | — | Phl; |
| 4 | xOrlando | 1 | 52 | 55 | 15 | 10 | Atl; | — |
| 5 | xNYC FC | 1 | 50 | 53 | 14 | 7 | — | Mntl; |
| 6 | xCharlotte | 1 | 48 | 51 | 13 | 6 | — | DC; |
| 7 | xNY Red Bull | 1 | 47 | 50 | 11 | 6 | Clmb; | — |
| 8 | D. C. | 1 | 40 | 43 | 10 | -15 | Char; | — |
| 9 | Montreal | 1 | 40 | 43 | 10 | -16 | NYC; | — |
| Playoff line | ||||||||
| 10 | eToronto | 0 | 37 | 37 | 11 | -21 | — | — |
| 11 | Philadelphia | 1 | 37 | 40 | 9 | 8 | Cin | — |
| 12 | Atlanta | 1 | 37 | 40 | 9 | -4 | — | Orl; |
| 13 | eNashville | 1 | 33 | 36 | 8 | -19 | — | Chi; |
| 14 | eNewEngland | 2 | 31 | 40 | 9 | -29 | — | Clmb; Mia; |
| 15 | eChicago | 1 | 30 | 33 | 7 | -19 | Nsh; | — |
Columbus must play New England during the international break. The game will have no effect on the Union’s remaining playoff aspirations.
Very very confusing article. I know less after reading it.
Apologies, Matt.
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1 Union could finish 8th if they beat Cincinnati and both Montreal and DC lose. They would host the wildcard cgame.
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2 Union could finish 9th if they beat Cincinnati and Montreal loses, and DC earns a point or more. They would travel to DC.
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3 Union could finish 9th if they beat Cincinnati and DC loses, and Montreal earns a point or more. They would travel to Montreal.
No matter what, the boys have to beat Cincy. Let’s hope for a trend breaking win at home.
I hope for a win without any hope of a playoff run solely on the possibility of beating the next team and hosting game 2 of the round of three against Miami and having Lionel Messi actually show up.
I think the simpler way to explain it is this:
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*The Union make it into the playoffs if they beat Cincinnati, and EITHER Montreal OR DC loses.
*If they beat Cincy and BOTH Motreal AND DC lose, the Union finish 8th and host the wild card match.
*If only one of those two teams loses, then the Union finish 9th and have to go on the road (to whichever of those two teams earned points) for the wild card match.
The good news: Cincy has literally nothing to play for. So you would expect they will not be playing their best XI (certainly not for the whole match), which should give us a much greater chance.
The bad news: even if we make it in, and win the wild card game, we’re just gonna be cannon fodder for the Miami Sound Machine.
Cincy is playing for a Concacaf Champions Cup spot, so unlikely they will be playing subs.
What does the M column mean?
Maximum possible points.
Good work spelling this out, thx.
“For a while there, the Union looked like a surefire bet to grab one of the wild card spots in the East. A brutal stretch run has taken its toll, though. Since Leagues Cup, the Union have faced Columbus, New York, Miami, NYCFC, D.C., Atlanta, Orlando and Columbus again. They’ll end the year against FC Cincinnati. They aren’t even playing poorly. But this may just not be their year.” Gee, MLSsoccer dot com, ya think? (Rank: 20)
ITS ALL UP TO SUGARMAN …Curtin and Tanner must realize that the Union must sign better players to compete or languish in the bottom half going forward. They made zero changes to improve the team at the start of the season. They lost Martinez and Caranza. Added Jean Jaques who is still learning his role and English at the same time. Baribo played well and adapted quickly. I call that a net gain OF ZERO in the quality of players. If the Union want to really compete next year. They need to add a quality veteran attacking midfielder and a legitimate veteran right back. If we do this they have a chance to be in the top half of the league again. It’s all up to Sugarman now. He needs to alter his business plan or settle on being a feeder team that produces an occasional unpolished Gem to feed to European teams. IF Sugarman does not take appropriate steps , he is going to loose a lot of season ticket holders and loyal fans who have followed this team.
Exactly. Too late for some of us season ticket holders but I know some originals that are giving one more year to see if they decide to spend in the offseason to compete and entertain again. Hope so.
I am one of those STH who decided to give one more shot, but maybe that was because the lock in date was in August when there was hope.
I got to see Carranza play one more time in Rotterdam last weekend for the last 10 minutes of the game and that was with the #1 striker injured. Over there they consider him a bargain buy for striker depth. Sigh.
I actually thought there was less hope at the end of the renewal period when they had just lost at home to Columbus than there was after the DC game when they were coming off back to back wins as well as 3 of 4 including 2 wins on the road.
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Then when I saw that they hadn’t beat Atlanta at home, we were back to little hope.
So they’ll miss the playoffs for the first time in 7 years and everyone is jumping ship? This team has scored the 4th MOST goals in MLS this season. They have a +9 GD, and they’re sitting outside of the playoffs??? If they had a healthy Blake for just half of the games he missed they’re likely sitting in 4th place right.
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This team needs a younger starting calibre centerback, a dynamic single 6, and a backup striker. Resign Flach and Bedoya. Get a bag of cash for McGlynn to help bring in the new folks, leave Elliott and Adineran exposed for the expansion draft.
Reasoned.
Just End The Season.
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JETS.
JETS.
JETS.
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Hopefully by 8PM today, this will be the final weekend of Jim Curtin”s reign of error. The longest tenured coach in Philly pro sports at present.
They play Cincy at the same time DCU hosts Charlotte and CFM hosts NYCFC. If both win, the U are out. If they beat CIN and both DC/Montréal lose, they get the wild card game.