Photo courtesy Philadelphia Union II Communications

What we currently know divides into two major parts. First we analyze Union II’s seeding situation. Then we list its playoff roster.

SEEDING

Because Inter Miami CF II defeated Atlanta United 2 Tuesday night 1-0, every team in MLS NEXT Pro’s Eastern Conference has played at least 26 out of their 28 regular season league games. Two have played 27. The conference’s playoff seeding has come partially into focus.

Here is what we think we know, unofficially. We develop each of these more fully immediately below.

• Playoff seeding certainties as they pertain to Philadelphia Union II.
• How the playoffs would seed were they to start, hypothetically, Wednesday, September 25th.
• The data that determine what seeding outcomes remain possible.

The first two official tiebreakers affect the conclusions we draw. The first tiebreaker compares the clubs’ wins in 90 minutes of regulation time. The second compares their respective goal differences.

Certainties

Philadelphia can be seeded no lower than third, so it has a home game and will choose its opponent. The range of its choice remains to be determined over the next two games.

Philadelphia could still overtake Cincinnati if they win both and Cincinnati draws one and loses the shootout, because Philadelphia almost certainly would continue to have a better goal difference (currently five). (See “The determining data” below for each team’s remaining opponents.)

Miami could still overtake Philadelphia on points if Philly loses its last two and

• Miami wins its last two.
• Or Miami wins one in regulation and wins a shootout.
• Or Miami wins one in regulation, loses a shootout, and has made up the goal difference (currently eight).

Miami could still overtake Cincinnati if Cincinnati loses both, Miami wins both, and Miami overtakes the current goal difference of three.

Orlando cannot overtake Philadelphia since they have only one game left, are three points behind, and have three fewer wins.

Hypothetically

Were the playoffs to begin today Wednesday, September 25th, the Eastern Conference Quarterfinals would cascade as follows.

(Crown Legacy is Charlotte’s farm team.)

The determining data

Here is our unofficial data table updated on Wednesday, September 25, 2024 at 8:11 AM ET

PLAYOFF ROSTER

Union II’s roster undergoes significant change in late summer as its academy players transition from the completed year to the next. Creating playoff eligibility for his new amateur players has been one of coach Marlon LeBlanc’s recent roster management tasks. He has already achieved it for 26 players. We suspect he may need exemptions granted to two more.

Eligibility rules

Unofficially, we have determined the following rules probably define 2024 MLS Next Pro playoff eligibility. We cite them from the 2022 [sic] Competition Guidelines. We assume they remain unchanged for 2024. As far as we know they did not change for 2023. The text is verbatim but the layout is ours.

Post-Season Eligibility

• Any player whom a Club wishes to select to its MLS NEXT Pro Playoffs roster must have appeared on a minimum of 5 MLS NEXT Pro Matchday Rosters prior to the end of the MLS NEXT Pro Regular Season, or;
• Any player whom a Club wishes to select to its MLS NEXT Pro Playoffs roster must have appeared on a minimum of 4 MLS NEXT Pro Matchday Rosters prior to the end of the MLS NEXT Pro Regular Season. One of the 4 roster appearances must have been an away game.Exemption (maximum of 3 players)

Exemptions

• If a player does not meet either of the above Matchday Roster thresholds, but the Club would like the player to be eligible for postseason games, the Club may submit an exemption request. Each Club is permitted a maximum of 3 player exemption requests.
• … (E)xemption requests may include, but are not limited to:
  • Missed appearance(s) due to injury or illness, or;
  • Missed appearance(s) due to loans to the Club’s First Division Team, or;
  • Date of player acquisition, or;
  • Missed appearance(s) because of reasons beyond the control of the Club and/or player.

The playoff eligible players

As of Noon, Tuesday, September 17^th these 26 players qualify

(Mastrodimos has subsequently been rostered a fifth time.)

Discovering holes

A depth chart helps discover where the playoff roster might need reinforcement using exemptions. The parentheses indicate possible exemptions.

(While Andrew Rick played the playoff clinching match against NYC FC II, we do not know that he could be available for playoff matches given his status as Andre Blake’s backup. Hence our attention to Semmle.)

Two possible exemptions

First, Oliver Semmle may play for Union II for both development and showcasing purposes. He would have to play both of the final two matches to make himself playoff eligible, conventionally. If Andre Blake were to miss any corresponding first team matches necessitating Semmle backing up Rick, Semmle might need an exemption.

Second, Jose Riasco returned from loan only on September 23^rd for the 26^th game of the season. He should qualify for an exemption request under the date of acquisition  provision of the exemption criteria above.