Photo Ron Soliman

After the Philadelphia Union’s Leagues Cup tournament ends Sunday, the club’s difficult push to make the playoffs begins three days later on Wednesday.

Jim Curtin recently opined that they must win five of their remaining nine league games to qualify. Five wins would add 15 points to the current 27 to total 42. Last year 43 points qualified both Charlotte and Red Bull for the eastern conference wildcard game, a single elimination match between finishers eight and nine for the chance to play a “best of three home-away-home” series against the conference champion. The wildcard continues this year.

Eastern conference playoff situation

This chart clarifies  many realities about the eastern conference playoff situation. As of Thursday, August 22, Philadelphia is below the playoff line.

• Columbus and New England have two games in hand over the rest of the conference, giving them the most intense among the intense frequencies of play.
• The next 12 teams all have a game in hand over Toronto, who do not play on Decision Day and will also be finishing the Canadian Championship competition.
• In Eastern Conference places nine through 14, Atlanta, Philadelphia, Montreal, Nashville, and D. C. are separated by only two points. The first tiebreaker is wins. The second is goal difference.

The Union’s chances

These different factors affect the Union’s chances.

• Injuries and suspensions.
• International absences.
• Game frequency.
• Quality of opponents.

The injury variable is difficult to predict. Excessive fatigue is a controllable threat, especially among older players and those who are recovering from previous injuries and surgeries. August 28 to October 19 is too long a time to be sustained by adrenaline. (See game frequency discussion below.)

Suspensions are comparable to injuries, although usually shorter.

After  identifying all Union international call-ups over the last twelve months and the schedules of those players’ international teams (Senior, U23, U20, U17, and U15), we conclude that the Union will suffer no  international absences during its September and October regular season games.

The same cannot be predicted were they to make a deep playoff run into mid-November. UEFA Nations League, Concacaf Nations League, and CONMEBOL’s World Cup Qualification will be playing, and the details of playoff scheduling are too variable to predict that the playoffs can avoid the November international window. (Post publication note: the day after publication MLS released the playoff schedule and they do avoid he November window as well.)

Only the playoffs’ start on October 23, and the MLS Cup final on December 7 are known exactly. (Click here for currently known MLS playoff details . The website gives the Union’s chances for making the eighth or ninth seeds as 10% and 12% respectively.)

Game frequency is a challenge the Union faces in trying to win at least five games. Since a game is a 90-minute effort no matter the competition, starting from the end of the Leagues Cup group stage, here is the Union’s past and future game frequency. Leagues Cup matches are asterisked*. “Days since previous match” is the key column.

Jim Curtin’s recent public emphasis on the depth of his squad makes emphatic sense. He will need it. Current midfielders must stay in Philly until season’s end. Fortunately, the transfer windows are now, or soon will be, closed.

The Union finishes against a strong array of opponents. Of their last nine regular season ones, only D. C. does not lie above the playoff line. They play Columbus twice in the most prominent example of the challenge. It will be an achievement if they qualify for the wild card game.