Photo Ruari Rossi

At his early December end-of-season press conference alongside head coach Jim Curtin, Sporting Director Ernst Tanner said the Philadelphia Union is beginning to transition into its next five-year cycle.

It is time to provide a first discussion of that transition. If the first cycle that culminated in the 2022 and 2023 teams might be called Tanner 1.0 or Phase One, the new cycle might be called Tanner 2.0 or Phase Two.

Tanner 1.0

The Sporting Director officially began work on August 9, 2018, although it was clear he had already started his Philadelphia tasks several weeks earlier. Using tape while still in Europe, he evaluated the two Philadelphia professional rosters, their supporting technical staffs, and the philosophical principles that underlay the entire organization from the youngest academy sides to the first team. Once he was officially in place, Tanner acted methodically on his evaluations.

As we move into Tanner 2.0, we might assume a similar evaluation would begin, but the evaluation has been ongoing ever since Tanner arrived. Philosophical principles are now in place. Union behavior suggests these principles are constantly tested by actual conditions in North America. Subtle adjustments are being made to account for actual experience here. The second team was originally to be ages 17 through 20, or perhaps 21.

Philosophical adaptations

To illustrate the evolution of the age principle, consider Chris Donovan and Jeremy Rafanello.

In August 2018 Tanner, almost certainly would not have considered signing and re-signing college graduate Donovan. Even after four years in North America, Tanner’s attitude in his July 17, 2022 announcement initially signing Donovan remained skeptical. When Jeremy Rafanello graduated from Union Academy in 2018, Tanner let him go to Penn State and then to lower levels in Europe. He signed him back four years later, on August 23, 2022.

Tanner’s philosophy has evolved for two reasons. The academy provides practical, enduring training in playing his favored narrow diamond and the pool of youth soccer talent in North America is less exceptional than central Europe’s. Hence, Donovan and Rafanello are both on the Union’s 2024 roster.

The critical element of Tanner’s age principle remains. Prospects for sale to European development clubs still need to be identified when they are 17-years-old. The timing of their subsequent two future sales does not work otherwise. And his requirements to qualify as a prospect are highly exacting. Many who have left his program survive and flourish in MLS and elsewhere.

He now accepts that MLS squad players, front-line reserves, and even a few MLS starters can be developed from those who are older and have come from less advanced, less professionalized backgrounds. Donovan and Rafanello personify the point.

Tanner 2.0

The sequences in which the Sporting Director put together the side that came less than two minutes away from winning 2022’s MLS Cup may instruct us how Phase Two may unfold.

The attackers were the last pieces acquired to culminate Phase One. That timing may have been determined partly by the need to sell prospects to obtain the capital to buy Daniel Gazdag, Julian Carranza, and Mikael Uhre since they were the most expensive pieces of the build, even though Carranza was a steal. None of those three moves could have happened without the sales of Brenden Aaronson and Mark McKenzie.

We have yet to determine how much working capital now exists for Tanner to build Phase Two. The proof of concept embodied by both Aaronson brothers and McKenzie has attracted new investors. It took three golf carts to transport the board on last November’s tour of the completed fields of the WSFS Sportsplex. Incidentally, the Sportsplex’s unfinished buildings will compete for that capital against Tanner’s new and more numerous roster.

The steps to develop Phase Two’s side may not chronologically separate as obviously as they did during Tanner 1.0. He will have a greater ability to acquire a player he fancies whenever that player becomes available, as he probably just did with Markus Anderson. But the age structure of 2024’s roster demonstrates that transitions in defense, midfield, and attack are looming or already underway.

2024

Peter Andrews, Philly Soccer Page’s second-ever Managing Editor, recently called the Union’s 2024 offseason “underwhelming.” He is correct that no stars or prominent future stars have signed for 2024. Since November 15, though, ten new first-team contracts have been signed or re-signed. Hopefully, two more will be added by the end of the month for a total of 12, which would equal 39% of the league’s maximum allowed roster size (31). Eight are–or will be–brand new to the first team, roughly one-quarter of the 2024 side. Even though the eight newcomers are not star-studded, their sheer number suggests a transition is underway, despite current banner headlines and pinned tweets touting a 37-year-old captain’s return for a ninth season. Among his many talents, Tanner is good at public relations smokescreens.

As evidence of the reality of the transition to Tanner 2.0, Union Communications created a document to assist media members as they try to sound intelligent about the Philadelphia club. It’s been rearranged, lightly condensed, and simplified to fit the Philly Soccer Page’s layout requirements, but its essence remains the communications department’s creation. (Here is their original.)

The Union’s defense was completed in 2019 and 2020, while 2021 added the next group of sale prospects and finished the midfield. 2022 added the attack. 2023 tried for some depth and partial coverage of potential departures. 2024 is trying to find pieces for Tanner 2,0 that will double as squad depth for many games, especially in the midfield.

How the Union were built

To cement this point, here is an unofficial first-team depth chart with ages, focusing primarily on the midfield, both starters and backups.

Unofficial depth chart estimate (February 7, 2024)

Parentheses indicate the individual is not yet signed, but likely will be. Montali might sign with Union II since there would be no room on the first team, unless he were loaned out for the entire season, without the possibility of recall.

Below are more specific signs of each segment’s transition towards Tanner 2.0.

Defense

The defense is being prepared for a transition in two years or more.

The re-signing of Kai Wagner preserves the old defense for 2024 and 2025–if Blake and Elliot exercise their 2025 options. Only Olivier Mbaizo is uncertain after this year, and he alternates seamlessly with Nathan Harriel. Jesus Bueno seems anointed as Jose Martinez’s successor at the single six.

Given Jim Curtin’s caution in developing the full trust of new defenders (recall Auston Trusty and Mark McKenzie from his past), locking in Blake, Wagner, Elliott, Glesnes, Harriel/Mbaizo, and Martinez/Bueno makes a great deal of sense. The next generation of back-liners and their protectors will have plenty of time to learn their roles and prove their consistency.

Midfield

The middle of the formation’s transition is underway right now. Alejandro Bedoya’s age forces it, and Leon Flach’s torn pectoral injury accelerates the need for such a change.

At left midfield, Jack McGlynn has already proven he provides more offensive flair against lesser MLS sides than Flach, but can he do so against the league’s best teams? He defends adequately but not as well. Does McGlynn have the resilience to carry the lion’s share of the left midfield load at two games a week from late February into early March and beyond?

Sanders Ngabo subbed on for McGlynn in the earlier stage of preseason. He played well but still needs to show 90-minute game-fitness. He became available to the Union because he had been recovering from injury. Flach’s absence will hurt.

A similar transition is underway at right midfield, but with greater proven depth. Will Quinn Sulllivan’s legendary conditioning allow Alejandro Bedoya to round into shape after a late start? Can they become as much of a pair as Mbaizo and Harriel are at right back? First clues will drop against Cincinnati and New England in Clearwater this Friday and next Wednesday. Once games begin to count, they occur with unkind frequency.

As a Homegrown behind Sullivan and Bedoya, Nick Pariano knows the system and looked well in the second half against Flamengo and Austin’s reserves. Still, he is as green as the DiMaggio Complex’s grass.

The shuttling mid questions are great, but not as great as the attacking midfield ones.

Last season Daniel Gazdag rivaled center backs Glesnes and Elliott as an ironman. He had to. Furthermore, whenever he was in Zone 14, opponents triple-teamed him, applying intense physicality. In the matches he missed while injured, his absence was painfully obvious.

While the Hungarian was away during January securing his green card, Rafanello played as the number ten. Last season, he scored and created effectively for Union II, becoming their second-leading scorer with nine goals in 18 starts. It is a severe leap, though, from MLS NEXT Pro to Major League Soccer, especially for scorers. Rafanello can be a defender and an offensive placeholder as a number 10 in MLS. If Tanner did not think so, he would not have exercised Rafanello’s option, but can he be anything more?

If the Union does sign David Vazquez, the rising 18-year-old may prove to be Gazdag’s future successor. Whether he could do it this season remains uncertain. Not being knocked off the ball by MLS defenders would be a first indication. He has practiced with the first team quite a bit and looked well against Flamengo and Austin’s reserves, but it doesn’t matter until he signs.

Fourteen-and-a half-year-old Cavan Sullivan travelled south for 2024’s second leg in Florida. He played the second half for Union II last Tuesday evening, but is expected to move to Europe when he becomes eligible for the European equivalent of “working papers.” He will probably join Bajung Darboe and Marcos Zambrano as Academy players who were priced out of the Union’s ability–or willingness–to pay when they turned professional. The best European development academies are still more highly regarded than the Union’s and their owners have more money.

Strikers

A superficial first glance at the depth chart finds strength within the Union’s leading striker pair. More careful examination discovers future change.

Julian Carranza wants Europe, although not, so far, the European teams that have sought him. Per Jonathan Tannewald (behind the Inquirer’s paywall) February 1, Olympiakos offered $7.5 million last summer, which the Union thought was too low. Werder Bremen, Mainz, and Ipswich Town (currently second in the English Championship) were seriously interested this winter. The Union was willing, but Carranza was not.

With summer approaching, teams may choose to wait out his contract and sign him for nothing as a free agent in December. Clubs below the elite levels in Italy and Spain may be cash-strapped as spending rules with teeth are taking effect. (That probably explains why Markus Anderson’s 3rd division Spanish club needed to sell him.)

Carranza’s older strike partner, Mikael Uhre, was less effective last year than in 2022. He had fewer opportunities through the central channel because opposing tactics shut down Gazdag. Instead, Uhre was reduced to playing for long direct service behind the back line without credible alternative threats to force defenses to hold their lines high.

Among the striker reserves and newcomers, Tai Baribo has yet to show he is an MLS goal scorer.  When he arrived last summer, he had been preparing himself for the start of a European season, and MLS was at its late summer peak. That clash of rhythms has often impeded fast starts by European imports throughout the league.

Chris Donovan continues confounding Tanner’s 2018 statement of absolute age parameters. He is an effective MLS defender as a striker in a counter-pressing system, and he has become a reasonably reliable poacher on offense. Like the team, he has made discernable progress year on year. He will never be sold to Europe. Whether he can someday match Cory Burke’s MLS production remains to be seen.

The other strikers on the chart are not MLS-proven.

Jose Riasco did well enough on loan in Uruguay’s first division to earn an opportunity with the first team. It will begin once CONMEBOL finishes its qualifiers for the Paris Olympics on Sunday, February 11.

Joaquin Torres and his magic feet will help fill Carranza’s space when the Argentine leaves. But last year, he lacked King Julian’s ball-controlling bite, both offensively and defensively. He was too easy to knock off the ball when possessing it and unable to clear the ball from others when defending.

Markus Anderson is unseen, aside from a promising YouTube highlight reel. Should he and Riasco prove themselves, they would exemplify the transition beyond the aging Dane and the ambitious Argentine.

In Tanner, we trust?

Tanner 2.0 is beginning its cycle. Just as the 2022 club was built over several years, so will the 2027 and 2028 ones be. Questions remain as to whether the club maintains a high level of play while transitioning and whether it can make enough money selling prospects to fuel the process.