Photo: Ruairi Rossi
One game remains in Philadelphia Union’s MLS regular season.
Here are their Eastern Conference playoff possibilities pending Decision Day’s final match away to New England:
- They cannot finish first or second.
- They cannot finish lower than fifth.
Therefore they will not play in the short-rest, mid-week play-in game (eighth seed hosting ninth).
The key matches on Saturday for the Union are their own game in Foxborough and Columbus Crew’s match with CF Montreal. While the scenarios are spelled out in more detail below, here’s the bottom line.
- If the Union win, they’re guaranteed a third-place finish, and will play the sixth-place team (which could be New England, Nashville, or Atlanta).
- If the Union draw, they’re guaranteed at least a fourth-place finish, as New England would not be able to pass them. They’d finish third if Columbus draws or loses against Montreal, and fourth if Columbus takes all three points.
- If the Union lose, the scenarios get a bit more complicated. New England could only jump the Union if they can make up the current goal difference, which would require them to win by at least three goals. Columbus would jump the Union with a win or draw. So:
- Union lose by three goals or more and Columbus win or draw: Union finish fifth, and would not have home-field advantage in the first playoff round.
- Union lose by less than three goals and Columbus win or draw: Union finish fourth (behind Columbus).
- Union lose by three goals or more and Columbus lose: Union finish fourth (behind New England).
- Union lose by less than three goals and Columbus lose: Union finish third.
New England is now coached by Clint Peay, promoted from New England Revolution II after the recent dismissals of Bruce Arena and Richie Williams. Their home record is 11 wins, one loss, and four draws this season.
Jose Martinez is suspended for yellow card accumulation, so he will not be available to defend Revs attacking midfielder Carles Gil. Jesus Bueno was listed as questionable with an ankle for Nashville on October 7, but did not dress.
No matter what happens on Decision Day, the Boys in Blue will have a full week to prepare for the playoffs. They will play a best two out of three first round series with at least one home playoff game. If they finish third or fourth, they will open at home and the third match would be in Chester if needed. If fifth, only the second match would be at home.
The Eastern Conference
For those who want fuller analysis of the playoff situation, we offer a maximum possible points chart, and then list every team’s remaining match(es).
At the end we give the range of possibilities for each remaining team, pending both Decision Day and the other remains match, Charlotte at Miami Wednesday night, October 18.
And we explain the possibility for a three-way tie at third, fourth, and fifth.
Maximum regular season points possible
| Plc | Team | Pts | Left | Max Pts |
| 1st | s – Cincinnati | 68 | 1 | 68+3=71 |
| 2nd | x – Orlando | 60 | 1 | 60+3=63 |
| 3rd | x- Philadelphia | 55 | 1 | 55+3=58 |
| 4th | x – Columbus | 54 | 1 | 54+3=57 |
| 5th | x – New England | 52 | 1 | 52+3=55 |
| 6th | x – Atlanta | 50 | 1 | 50+3=53 |
| 7th | x – Nashville | 49 | 1 | 49+3=52 |
| 8th | Montreal | 41 | 1 | 41+3=44 |
| 9th | e – D. C. | 40 | 0 | 40+0=40 |
| 10th | New York Red Bull | 40 | 1 | 40+3=43 |
| 11th | Chicago | 40 | 1 | 40+3=43 |
| 12th | Charlotte | 39 | 2 | 39+6=45 |
| 13th | New York City FC | 38 | 1 | 38+3=41 |
| 14th | e – MIami | 33 | 2 | 33+6=39 |
| 15th | e – Toronto | 22 | 1 | 22+3=25 |
s = supporters’ shield; x = clinched playoffs; e = eliminated
Remaining match(es)
| Plc | Team | Pts | Lft | Remaining Match(es) | |
| 1st | s – Cincinnati | 68 | 1 | H | (21-Oct, Atla) |
| 2nd | x – Orlando | 60 | 1 | A | (21-Oct, Toro) |
| 3rd | x- Philadelphia | 55 | 1 | A | (21-Oct, NEng) |
| 4th | x – Columbus | 54 | 1 | H | (21-Oct, Mont) |
| 5th | x – New England | 52 | 1 | H | (21-Oct, Phil) |
| 6th | x – Atlanta | 50 | 1 | A | (21-Oct, Cinc) |
| 7th | x – Nashville | 49 | 1 | H | (21-Oct, NYRB) |
| 8th | Montreal | 41 | 1 | A | (21-Oct, Clmb) |
| 9th | e – DC United | 40 | 0 | H | — |
| 10th | New York Red Bull | 40 | 1 | A | (21-Oct, Nash) |
| 11th | Chicago | 40 | 1 | A | (21-Oct, NYC) |
| 12th | Charlotte | 39 | 2 | H | (21-Oct, Miam) |
| A | (18-Oct, Miam) | ||||
| 13th | New York City FC | 38 | 1 | H | (21-Oct, Chic) |
| 14th | e – Miami | 33 | 2 | H | (18-Oct, Char) |
| A | (21-Oct, Char) | ||||
| 15th | e – Toronto | 22 | 1 | H | (21-Oct, Orla) |
Remaining Eastern Conference playoff possibilities
- Cincinnati has the Supporters’ Shield.
- Orlando has clinched second place.
- Philadelphia, Columbus, and New England can still finish third or fourth. Philadelphia and Columbus cannot finish lower than fifth.
- Atlanta and Nashville cannot finish higher than fifth.
- Montreal, New York Red Bull, and Chicago cannot finish higher than eighth.
- Charlotte could finish eighth.
- NYC FC cannot finish higher than ninth.
If New England win over Philadelphia, and Montreal draws Columbus in Ohio, the Revs, the Union, and the Crew would all have 55 points. All would have 15 wins in regulation, the first tie-breaker. Third, fourth, and fifth would be determined by goal difference, which before Decision Day favors Columbus by three over the Union and handicaps New England by six against the Boys in Blue.
A draw in New England guarantees the Union fourth.
Appendix: The October international break (as of Tues afternoon)
Nine Union players were called up during the October 2023 International window.
- Andre Blake (GK, Jamaica)
- Jesús Bueno (M, Venezuela)
- Nathan Harriel (D, USA U-23)
- Dániel Gazdag (AM, Hungary)
- Damion Lowe (CB, Jamaica)
- José Martínez (M, Venezuela)
- Olivier Mbaizo (RB, Cameroon)
- Jack McGlynn (M, USA U-23)
- Brandan Craig (CB, USA U-23)
The links below connect to best match reports available at the time of writing.
Cameroon [Mbaizo]
- Thurs 12-Oct @ Moscow, Russia; Russia, friendly. Mbaizo subbed on in the 86’. Russia won 1-0.
- Mon 16-Oct @ Lens, France; Senegal, friendly. Senegal won 1-0. Mbaizo did not dress.
Hungary [Gazdag]
- Sat 14-Oct @ Budapest, Hungary; Serbia, Euro 2024 qualifying. Gazdag dressed but did not play. Hungary won 2-1.
- Tues 17-Oct @ Kaunas, Lithuania; Lithuania, Euro 2024 qualifying. Gazdag started and played the first half of Hungary’s 2-2 draw with Lithuania in Lithunania.
Venezuela [Martinez, Bueno]
- Thurs 12 Oct @ Cuiaba, Brazil; Brazil, Conmebol 2026 WC qualifying. Neither Bueno nor Martinez dressed. Venezuela tied Brazil 1-1.
- Tues 17-Oct @ Maturin, Venezuela, Chile, Conmebol 2026 WC qualifying. Bueno did not dress. Martinez started and played 65′. Venezuela won 3-0.
Jamaica [Blake, Lowe]
- Thurs 12-Oct @ St. Georges, Grenada; Grenada, Concacaf Nations League A. Blake & Lowe sat the bench. Jamaica won 4-1.
- Sun 15-Oct @ Port-of-Spain, Trinidad & Tobago; Haiti, Concacaf Nations League A. Both Blake and Lowe played the full 90 in Jamaica’s 3-2 win.
US U-23s [McGlynn, Harriel, Craig]
- Weds 11-Oct @ Phoenix, AZ; Mexico U-23s, friendly. US 2-1 Mex. McGlynn & Harriel started and subbed off after 60 minutes. Craig subbed on in the 60th.
- Tues 17-Oct @ Phoenix, AZ; Japan U-23s, friendly. Craig subbed on in the 41st. Harriel and McGlynn subbed on in the 63rd. The US won 4-1. (US Soccer is typically a day or two late with USMNT U23 match reports.)
Why is end of season math so fun?? I threw together a spreadsheet last week to play the numbers games and possibilities. That 3 goal NE win ends up taking us to the 3rd tiebreaker. They are tied on goals for right now, but the win would slide that in their favor. Wild.
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A win by Charlotte in tonight’s game would see NYCFC knocked out. Which is totally doable if Messi doesn’t feature. And he’s with Argentina right now. And I say good riddance to the Pigeon poo.
Not as much rest for McGlynn and Harriel as I would like (if they played yesterday), but no one else was played heavy. Blake and Lowe played (of course) but they’ll have a full week rest, and the travel is shorter.
Judging from @USYNT on Twitter, McGlynn and Harriel got slightly less than 30 minutes in the second half.
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Blake and Lowe traveled from Port-of-Spain, Trinidad and Tobago, not Hispianola. Haiti does not play “home” matches at home.
It is fun…I agree
Once again, MLS continues to amaze us. Thanks to the odd number of teams, DC doesn’t play on decision day and is guaranteed to drop out of a playoff spot. It’s weird to see standings showing a team in a playoff spot with an e- next to it’s name.
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I know it’s early, but Venezuela is in 4th in COMNEBOL, in a 3 way tie for 2nd until you get down to goal’s scored as a tiebreaker. Let’s hope they keep it up for the next 2 years and are able to qualify for their first World Cup.
If we assume that a 3 goal loss to New England is highly unlikely, then the U are finishing 3rd or 4th, with home field advantage in the first round, and an opponent who could be Atlanta, New England, Columbus, or Nashville.
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Those are all tough clubs. I think I would rather play Atlanta of the four, but the difference is modest. And the difference between finishing 3rd and finishing 4th is, practically speaking, not much either.
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One last thing you did mention is what happens with St. Louis. If we win on Saturday, and St. Louis does not, then the Union would have home field advantage for MLS Cup, if we can make it there.
There are no easy games in the playoffs
Not sure why a 3 goal loss is highly unlikely. Last season, with a much stronger defense, Union lost to a much weaker Charlotte 4-0 in a late season game on turf. And the Union are still shorthanded in midfield with Martinez out Saturday. So while losing by 3 is not likely, I don’t think I would characterize it as highly unlikely.
I pay no attention to the Western Conference, sorry.
Sorry, but I am not sure where to ask this question.
But is Kai Wagner gone? Or will he play in the playoffs? I am confused by all of this going away party stuff on instagram.
Barring injury, suspension or something really weird, Kai will play in the playoffs. He is under contract through the end of the season which doesn’t actually end until the Union are eliminated from the playoffs (or they win the cup).
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And theoretically, the Union could offer him a much larger contract than they have in the past and he could still sign and stay. My guess is that will only happen if there is also a deal in place to move Carranza to Europe during the January international trade window.
Thanks! I appreciate your info.
https://phillysoccerpage.net/2023/10/19/storybook-endings/