Photo: Marjorie Elzey

The data offered below grows out of a curiosity to compare Andre Blake to his fellow 2023 Eastern Conference starting keepers.

It is collected from each player’s individual match logs within the MLS website. It includes only 2023 regular season MLS matches. (And it does not include this past weekend’s matches.)

The “GA -XGA” statistic subtracts the estimated goals that would have been scored in an “average” situation given the all the characteristics of each individual shot from the actual goals allowed. When the estimate exceeds the number actually scored – when the number is negative – the goalkeeper, and his defense in front of him, has done well.

The keeper is only one part of the team’s overall defensive effort. Think about an heroic defender blocking a point blank shot while standing on the goal line. To suggest how good the team has been overall and how well its defense has played, the data includes its current place in the table and its goal differential.

The table is sorted by the raw number of negative GA-XGA games produced, rather than the percentage from total games played because not every individual has played the same number of games. They range from only 10 to all 20, making comparison among them problematic.

Negative GA-XGA games as of June 30

Five of the fifteen have started every regular season match.

A goalkeeper whose team has a poor goal difference but a high number of negative GA-XGA games, is probably making a greater contribution than one whose team has a positive difference. Drake Callender of Miami jumps out from this table. Miami is in last place in the east with the conference’s worst goal difference. Callender nonetheless has produced negative GA-XGA numbers 11 times from all 18 matches.

At the top of the ranking, Roman Celentano of Cincinnati has produced the most “above-expectations” performances. But Cincinnati is in first place with a plus-11 differential, suggesting a stronger defense in front of him than Miami’s.

Zooming in on the Union

Union fans’ eyeballs already know that the 2023 defense has been strong but not exceptional to the degree that last season’s was. Blake’s numbers are good but reflect that he has not an all-star for 2023 and that he is not likely to win goalkeeper of the year.

After beating Miami 4-1, the Union had the the best goal differential in the conference. (Nashville and Columbus passed Philly after this weekend’s matches.) Perhaps less reflective of a good game against a bad team is that their goal difference is among the conference’s top five.

Key details for the future now focus on roster changes during the summer transfer window. The punditry opines that Kai Wagner might leave this month for money rather than walking for free this winter. Julian Carranza has been as hot as an exploding July fourth firecracker and turned 23 only at the end of May. A European developmental league might push Jack McGlynn to a higher level for future resale.

And at the end of the month we will experience what the expanded version of the Leagues Cup means, both as a business venture and as comparison soccer .