Photo: Stephen Speer

The weather in Chester on Saturday and Wednesday evenings could not have been more contrasting. Fittingly, too was the polarity in the quality of the Union’s play through the midfield on either night.

On Saturday, a restless home crowd observed a sour display of awry passing, causing each build-up to fizzle out just as quickly as it began. That was until Jim Curtin looked to the bench after a lifeless hour of play, bringing on Jack McGlynn for Leon Flach. Subsequently, the Union found their footing.

Tuesday, it was a slightly different tune. This time, McGlynn got the nod over Flach against Atlas FC — a change that sparked some quality into the rest of the XI for a full 90 minutes.

Coincidence? Surely that point could have been made in matches against Miami or Chicago, but this has become a trend. The eye test says it is obvious. McGlynn comes on for Flach, accompanied by a simple change in tactics, and just like that the Union become more dangerous in the attacking third.

But what do the numbers show?

Take a look at these 2023 offensive metrics in MLS play:

The disparity becomes even more astounding when you consider these same metrics per 90 minutes:

(Stats courtesy of FBref)

Not so neat and tidy

In Saturday’s match against Sporting KC, Flach’s passes found Union feet 52.9% of the time. When the full six MLS games are considered, Flach’s completion rate sits at 73.4%. This is to say he turns the ball over one in every four times he touches it. For a central midfielder whose responsibilities include taking care of the ball while in possession, that is well below par.

Completing 84.6% of his passes this season in the league, McGlynn is much tidier, while also seeing much more of the ball per 90 minutes. McGlynn’s strengths in possession take significant pressure off of the other nine field players. Instead of his teammates carrying the weight of Flach’s shortcomings within the Union attack, McGlynn creates and contributes to offensive moves regularly which brings out the best of the players around him.

Providing a solid defensive effort and helping stymy an opponent’s attack is definitely part of the job description as a number 8. However, so is the ability to transition this defense to offense. If the Union are borrowing the ball for spurts, just for it to be returned to the opposition one in every four Flach touches, how exactly can this attack be effective?

Conversely, the Union seem to own the ball with attacking intent when McGlynn is included in the XI. Possession of the ball can be considered a form of defense, and possession with a purpose will always trump Flach’s defensive prowess. Albeit, McGlynn did show some flashes of improved defensive play against Atlas on Tuesday.

Feels like we only go backward, baby

And every part of McGlynn’s game says go ahead.

A Tame Impala jam goes something like that.

The disparity in the progressive passing metrics is stark. McGlynn’s fifteen progressive passes per 90 are at a rate seven times those of Flach’s. Number 31 in blue went the first 61 minutes of the match on Saturday without connecting on a forward pass greater than ten yards outside of the defensive third. McGlynn had a pair in his 27 minutes on Saturday, and 21 passes into the final third on Tuesday night, per FotMob.

It’s just as apparent in the chance creation metrics from the two. McGlynn has provided seven actions over 90 minutes that contribute directly to shots on goal. Two of these opportunities came at the weekend in his 27-minute spell. Flach’s 1.88 shot-creating actions per 90 are indicative of a player that lacks offensive ingenuity.

McGlynn unquestionably has a way with the forward pass. Especially those that switch play or gain entry into the offensive third, both displayed with zest in the Tuesday night Concacaf Champions League bout.

Thus, the eye test concurs.

Positioning and Movement

One of the harder sides of the game to quantify is the intelligence and effectiveness of players’ positioning and movement when they don’t have the ball.

One stat that does give some insight, however, is the progressive passes received metric. It can be used to depict how effective a player is at moving off the ball by demonstrating how well they find space in the attacking half — where quarters can be a bit tighter. Good players find creative ways to unearth space and control or receive the ball under pressure.

McGlynn has four progressive passes received per 90 minutes in MLS play, which more than doubles Flach’s rate. This stat jumped off the page, as McGlynn always seems to sit deeper and dictate the game with his own passes.

Nevertheless, McGlynn does find himself in really strong areas of the pitch, and this allows the attack to feed off of his service into dangerous areas. He found himself in some grade-A scoring opportunities against Atlas, including a chance created by and for himself where he unleashed a powerful strike on goal, testing Camilo Vargas.

Moving Forward

Some important context to consider is that in Flach’s and McGlynn’s stats above, only MLS playing time is considered — where they have played dissimilar minutes. With Flach typically starting and McGlynn coming on as a sub, therein are some differences to game flow that are not necessarily accounted for. Additionally, McGlynn’s impressive minutes in the CCL are also not captured in the statistics above.

That said, Curtin has been unwavering in his first-choice starting XI. While this consistency may have worked with very few hiccups on the back half of last year, Flach’s play in 2023 has not warranted minutes of a full-time starter on what is arguably the best XI in the league.

This is not to say that Flach should be forgotten or that he should not have a role within this team — the many competitions this season will require his defensive capability. His value can be overlooked and fits perfectly into the mold that Curtin touts. But his impressive form displayed last season has not carried over into 2023.

Even though starting McGlynn would be a departure from the normal defensive-first playing style and tactics that graced the Bermuda grass in the Soob throughout Curtin’s tenure, the Union are clearly a more dangerous team when the 2023 version of McGlynn is on the field. The match against Atlas FC can be used as a litmus test as to the potential of how pivotal McGlynn’s ability can be to the attacking nature of this group over 90 minutes. The analytics line up with the eye test succinctly. It is time to go a different direction — a forward-thinking one.