Photo: Paul Rudderow

Somehow, there are only seven matches left in the MLS regular season.

(I don’t know about you, but it feels to me like first kick was just a few weeks ago.)

By all metrics, the Philadelphia Union have exceeded expectations this season. They’ve set a franchise-best pace through 27 matches, notching 13 wins and 45 total points. They lead the Eastern Conference in goals scored, second in the league only to the runaway freight train that is LAFC.

They held an iron grip on first place in the East for two-plus months, only falling into second this weekend. With a seven-point edge over fifth-place New York Red Bulls, the Union are in fantastic position to play their first home playoff game in over eight years when October rolls around.

And yet…

Despite what has been, objectively, a good season, it’s hard not to see warning signs.

Since the end of the Gold Cup break, the Union have struggled to find any sort of consistency, both in attack and in defense. And — troublingly — a baffling lineup change against Chicago this past weekend suggests that, rather than building steadily toward the playoffs, the Union squad is still very much in flux.

With a massively difficult run-in ahead, it’s time for Philadelphia to find some consistency.

Messy results

The Union’s last ten matches — dating back to the end of the Gold Cup break on June 26 — have been a mixed bag.

The raw numbers aren’t bad at all.  Philadelphia is 4-4-2 for 14 points; 1.4 points per game would be good for a playoff berth over a full season.

But sometimes points don’t quite tell the whole story. Of those four wins, I would characterize only two as comprehensive performances — defeating Chicago 2-0 at home and the nationally televised 5-1 demolition of D.C. It’s tough to be as thrilled by a 3-1 away win against ten-man Orlando City or an extremely fortunate 2-1 home win over a reeling Houston side.

The losses, more worryingly, have been ugly. Philly has been outscored in those four matches by a score of 14-2, including embarrassing 4-0 hammerings by Real Salt Lake and Montreal Impact. This weekend’s match wasn’t much better, with the Union unable to take advantage of a full half up a man against the bottom-feeding Fire.

In that ten-match stretch, it’s tough to identify any consecutive pair of matches where the Union turned in a good performance.

Chicago Fire that lineup into the sun

Some of the inconsistency has, undoubtedly, been down to players coming in and out of the lineup.

Talismanic midfielder Jamiro Monteiro missing most of July did not help in the slightest, while it’s taken time for big-money signing Marco Fabian to get up to full speed. Stalwart defenders Auston Trusty, Jack Elliott, and Ray Gaddis have hit major bumps in form. Summer signing Andrew Wooten has been on the roster for seven games and has yet to notch his first MLS goal.

In the face of much of this personnel turnover, manager Jim Curtin seems to have lost his magic touch in picking the lineup.

Starting with the D.C. game, Aurelien Collin replaced Trusty in defense. Despite questionable performances against both D.C. (where his absurdly needless foul led to United’s only goal) and Houston, Curtin announced last week that Collin was now installed as the starter, with Trusty and Mark McKenzie competing to be his backup.

Curtin also fell in love with Warren Creavalle, a competent MLS midfielder who put in the shift of his life against D.C. With Monteiro fully healthy, how Curtin chose to wedge Creavalle into the starting XI for the Chicago match was baffling from the moment it was posted on Twitter. With Creavalle in one of the central spots in the diamond, Monteiro took Fabian’s spot at the 10 — despite Fabian finally beginning to look comfortable in that role. Fabian was then horrifyingly miscast as a second striker playing next to Kacper Przybylko, the man who is never allowed to leave the lineup. (Przybylko has played every minute of every match since April 27.)

There were a couple things I disliked about this configuration. First, this was a truly ancient starting lineup for a team oft-praised for its willingness to play young players. The average age of the starters was 28.36 — three full years older than the team that started this ten-match stretch in New England. The team on the pitch getting older as the Union get into the close of the season is disappointing, but understandable. Results are what matter.

But, more importantly, this lineup wasn’t set up to get a result. Creavalle adds minimal value from the jump in a lineup that also includes Monteiro and Alejandro Bedoya. Marco Fabian is not a striker. And Collin may be suited to spot duty, but he’s far from his peak — the penalty he conceded to C.J. Sapong was rec league stuff.

(As an aside, I’d expect Collin to start again against D.C. — for better or for worse, Curtin is unlikely to so quickly return Collin to the bench after publicly declaring him the starter last week.)

Equally concerning was the Union’s total inability to generate offense in the second half with a man advantage.

As strong as Curtin’s performance as manager has been this season, he’s drawn the wrong lessons from the win over D.C.

And he doesn’t have much time to get it right again.

It doesn’t get any easier from here

For all intents and purposes, the playoffs start now for the Union.

Sure, they’ve effectively secured their spot already. But if the club is to make any noise, they need to secure a home game in the first (and maybe second) round and recapture their peak form from earlier in the season.

The good news and the bad news is the same: there are no cupcakes left on the schedule.

First is a trio of home matches against D.C., Eastern Conference leaders Atlanta, and Supporter’s Shield leaders LAFC. The Union follow that up with a brutal stretch of three road games in eight days — at Red Bulls, at San Jose, and at Columbus — before finishing on decision day by welcoming NYCFC to town. Of those seven matches, only one is against a team not in playoff position.

At the end of this stretch, we should know whether the Union are ready to make a serious challenge for MLS Cup, or whether 2019 will be remembered as yet another Union season that, right at the end, crumbled into dust.