Photo courtesy of Philadelphia Union

In his first official news conference as Sporting Director on October 10, Ernst Tanner responded to a question about Bethlehem by citing ages 16 to 21 — with one or two older players — as the side’s appropriate composition (You can find it in the linked video at 15:21).

The chart below evaluates the recent Bethlehem roster against Tanner’s standard to see what his thinking would mean concretely. Remember, an MLS player almost always starts when present.

Analyze the Steel's roster against Ernst Tanner's age parameters

The speculative observations below derive from the chart and Tanner’s comments.

College will be less relevant

The relationship between the Steel’s roster and NCAA soccer will change.

• The seven over-21 non-starters on USL contracts are NCAA products, as are the over-21 USL-contracted starters not named Chambers.
• Tanner’s idea might reflect unfamiliarity with college athletics in the States, but more likely it represents his experience in Germany and is a considered judgment.
• Tanner’s principle de-emphasizes the MLS Superdraft, much as Earnie Stewart did.

Both Tanner’s late-teenager age focus and his comment (at 16:18) that there is talent in the academy deserving chances to play with Bethlehem are in tension against the 2018 USL rule change that allows only five academy players to be active on a USL roster for a specific game at any one time. Mitigating the rule’s impact, not every Bethlehem teenager is an academy amateur.

Reality will control

Tanner’s age goal may be modified by reality for the 2019 season.

• Individuals vary. Recall the development time Brenden Aaronson lost this season via an early broken collarbone. Selmir Miscic was judged not yet physically ready for USL Championship (Div 2) games against men earlier this summer. He practices quite successfully with them, his body will mature, and he did dress for the Louisville playoff game.
• The organization’s scouting department has grown only glacially. The NCAA may have to serve as a temporary stopgap if the organization cannot find enough of the right players to fill Bethlehem’s squad.
• We do not know whether Tanner will populate Bethlehem’s roster as leanly as did Earnie Stewart. It ended this year at a record-high 15 bodies. 2018’s successes might expand the budget a bit.

A discussion 

In his news conference’s phrase, Tanner and Steel head coach Brendan Burke may need to “sit down together” if they have not already done so. Tanner states the Steel should get younger, and Burke has said Bethlehem has nearly found the proper knife-edge balance between development itself and the level of competitiveness necessary for that development to produce the goal of successful first-teamers.

In such a discussion, Tanner might mention the success of the seven teenage starters — Tomas Romero in goal made it seven — in taking a point from Indy Eleven at Indianapolis on Oct. 6, and the six in the playoff win at Pittsburgh. Burke might point out the Sept. 7 match away to Pittsburgh when a slightly older lineup was beaten badly, that the playoff win in Pittsburgh turned on older players entering, and the playoff-ender in Louisville.

They will need to discover together the exact importance of winning in developing a young player’s competence and confidence, a subject in which both are experienced practitioners. A shellacking does nobody any good. To the right mentality, a competitive loss fuels motivation.

Elsewhere, Toronto has had a USL affiliate a year longer than the Union but cannot offer development successes comparable to Auston Trusty and Mark McKenzie, let alone Derrick Jones, Anthony Fontana, Matt Real and now Brenden Aaronson. In the east only Red Bulls surpass the Union. Tanner’s principle would take Bethlehem very close to the ages on the roster of Toronto FC II. And that club has just left Division 2 to be a founding member of Division 3 in USL League One.

• The junior Reds were the conference doormat for the last two years of their four-year existence in Division 2, and were never strong.
• No  explanation, official or otherwise, has stated that losing consistently is why they left.
• The Division 2 stadium-size requirement is an equally possible departure motive.

Both men strongly value the competitive stretch USL’s Division 2 currently provides for Union youth development. It is likely the two minds will discover a workable understanding together.