SEBA Projections

MLS and USL projections through October 28

Below are the 2018 MLS season forecasts using data from games through October 28.

Some key points up front:

  • Philadelphia Championship chances: The Union now have a 0.6% chance of winning the MLS Cup, down from 1.0%.
  • Largest movers: Toronto gained the biggest boost in performance expectations for MLS in the past week, and the Los Angeles Galaxy had the largest drop.
  • Plus/minus: The two top players in the league, in terms of their teams’ goal differentials when they’re on the field, are New York Red Bulls’s Tim Parker and Bradley Wright-Phillips. The top Philadelphia players for this stat are Cory Burke and Alejandro Bedoya.
Philadelphia Union @ New York City FC

The SEBA odds don’t look too great for the Union, unfortunately, but they’re not without hope.

A ‘tie’ game refers to open-play results, after which penalty kicks would proceed and SEBA presumes 50/50 odds for the winner after that point.

Philadelphia Updated Stats

This following chart shows the Union’s 2018 stats, as compared with typical winning and losing teams.

This following chart shows the Union’s stats in recent MLS matches, as compared with typical winning and losing teams.

Power Rankings

The scores used for these rankings are the expected points-per-game for all league opponents both home and away.

SEBA has Philadelphia remaining at 10th.

Currently, Philadelphia’s performance expectation is set by the following distribution of minutes:

Philadelphia +/- for 2018

[table id=62 /]

MLS +/- for 2018

[table id=65 /]

Playoffs probability and more

The Union decreased from a 1.0% chance to a 0.6% chance of winning the MLS Cup.

Philadelphia decreased from a 1.0% chance to a 0.6% chance of qualifying for the 2019 edition of the CONCACAF Champions League.

The following are Philadelphia’s odds at different prizes over time.

The following are the probabilities of each final playoffs placement for Philadelphia.

The following shows the summary of the simulations in an easy table format.

[table id=59 /]

Next is a table showing the difference between this forecast and the last forecast.

[table id=61 /]

Model Validation

The following shows SEBA’s model error compared with random guessing. To do this, we save forecasts for the entire season’s games for every forecast’s data, and update the error charts all the way through the season.

Lower error is better.

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