SEBA Projections

MLS and USL projections through October 21

Below are the 2018 MLS season forecasts using data from games through October 21.

Some key points up front:

  • Philadelphia Championship chances: The Union now have a 1.0% chance of winning the MLS Cup, down from 1.2%.
  • Bethlehem playoff chances: The Steel now have a 2.8% chance of winning the USL Championship, up from 1.4%.
  • Largest movers: Kansas City gained the biggest boost in performance expectations for MLS in the past week, and FC Dallas had the largest drop.
  • Plus/minus: The two top players in the league, in terms of their teams’ goal differentials when they’re on the field, are Atlanta United’s Michael Parkhurst and Brad Guzan. The top Philadelphia players for this stat are Cory Burke and Alejandro Bedoya.


Philadelphia Updated Stats

This following chart shows the Union’s 2018 stats, as compared with typical winning and losing teams.

This following chart shows the Union’s stats in recent MLS matches, as compared with typical winning and losing teams.

Power Rankings

The scores used for these rankings are the expected points-per-game for all league opponents both home and away.

SEBA has Philadelphia remaining at 10th.

Currently, Philadelphia’s performance expectation is set by the following distribution of minutes:

Philadelphia +/- for 2018

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MLS +/- for 2018

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Playoffs probability and more

Next is the distribution of Philadelphia’s points against the MLS East’s sixth seed in all the simulations.

The Union decreased from a 1.2% chance to a 1.0% chance of winning the MLS Cup.

Philadelphia decreased from a 1.2% chance to a 1.0% chance of qualifying for the 2019 edition of the CONCACAF Champions League.

The following are Philadelphia’s odds at different prizes over time.

The following are the probabilities of each final playoffs placement for Philadelphia.

The following shows the summary of the simulations in an easy table format.

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Next is a table showing the difference between this forecast and the last forecast.

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The following shows the difficulty for each team’s remaining schedule. Higher values means an easier remaining schedule.

The following shows the expectations for upcoming Philadelphia matches:

Model Validation

The following shows SEBA’s model error compared with random guessing. To do this, we save forecasts for the entire season’s games for every forecast’s data, and update the error charts all the way through the season.

Lower error is better.


Power Rankings

SEBA has Bethlehem improved from 13th to 11th.

Playoffs probability and more

Bethlehem’s odds of winning the USL championship increased from 1.4% to 2.8%.

The following shows the probability of each post-playoff ranking finish:

The following are the simulation averages in an easy, combined format.

The following are the upcoming expectations for Bethlehem matches. In the context of playoffs, a ‘Tie’ represents the match going into penalty kicks, which SEBA regards as 50/50 chances.

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