SEBA Projections

MLS and USL projections through October 14

Below are the 2018 MLS season forecasts using data from games through October 14.

Some key points up front:

  • Philadelphia Championship chances: The Union now have a 1.2% chance of winning the MLS Cup, down from 1.6%.
  • Bethlehem playoff chances: The Steel have qualified for the playoffs!
  • Largest movers: Portland gained the biggest boost in performance expectations for MLS in the past week, and Real Salt Lake had the largest drop.
  • Plus/minus: The two top players in the league, in terms of their teams’ goal differentials when they’re on the field, are Atlanta United’s Michael Parkhurst and Brad Guzan. The top Philadelphia players for this stat are Cory Burke and Alejandro Bedoya.


Power Rankings

The scores used for these rankings are the expected points-per-game for all league opponents both home and away.

SEBA has Philadelphia declining from 9th to 10th.

Currently, Philadelphia’s performance expectation is set by the following distribution of minutes:

Philadelphia +/- for 2018

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MLS +/- for 2018

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Playoffs probability and more

Next is the distribution of Philadelphia’s points against the MLS East’s sixth seed in all the simulations.

The Union decreased from a 1.6% chance to a 1.2% chance of winning the MLS Cup.

Philadelphia decreased from a 1.6% chance to a 1.2% chance of qualifying for the 2019 edition of the CONCACAF Champions League.

The following are Philadelphia’s odds at different prizes over time.

The following are the probabilities of each final playoffs placement for Philadelphia.

The following shows the summary of the simulations in an easy table format.

[table id=59 /]

Next is a table showing the difference between this forecast and the last forecast.

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The following shows the difficulty for each team’s remaining schedule. Higher values means an easier remaining schedule.

The following shows the expectations for upcoming Philadelphia matches:

Model Validation

The following shows SEBA’s model error compared with random guessing. To do this, we save forecasts for the entire season’s games for every forecast’s data, and update the error charts all the way through the season.

Lower error is better.


Power Rankings

SEBA has Bethlehem declined from 12th to 13th.

Playoffs probability and more

Bethlehem’s odds of winning the USL championship increased from 1.0% to 1.4%.

The following shows the probability of each post-playoff ranking finish:

The following are the simulation averages in an easy, combined format.

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