These five points define Bethlehem Steel FC’s 2018 playoff prospects after Tuesday evening’s results:

• They themselves are the current playoff cutoff line. They hold eighth place with one home game remaining.
• They need wins Saturday and Sunday from:
  1. First-place Cincinnati at seventh-place Nashville (Sat.),
  2. Second-place Louisville hosting fifth-place Indy (Sat.),
  3. Third-place Pittsburgh at sixth-place New York (Sun.),
  4. Fourth-place Charleston at ninth-place Ottawa (Sat.),
  5. Eleventh-place Charlotte hosting tenth-place North Carolina (Sat.).
  6. Eighth-place Bethlehem hosting eliminated Tampa Bay (Sun.).
• They have a winnable home game, and they play it the day after many – but not all – have finished. They will know exactly what they need to do.
• Ottawa is two points behind, has an equal number of wins, and lags by 24 on goal difference.
• North Carolina is two points behind, has one fewer win, and lags by five on goal difference.

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SEBA data is from Chris Sherman’s post Wednesday. His material does not reflect Tuesday night’s results.

1. Bethlehem
   1. Today: 47 points, 8th place
   2. Game left: They host 12th-place Tampa, Sunday, October 14.
      1. SEBA power scores: Bethlehem = 1.464; Tampa = 1.288
      2. PSP observation: Tampa is eliminated, so Bethlehem scoring first, early, would be huge.
   3. Expected additional points: 3
   4. Expected total points: 50
   5. Tie breakers: They have 13 wins, and their goal difference is 14.
   6. Expected finish: Gut says 5th; SEBA = 6.5

2. Indy Eleven         
   1. Today: 49 points, 5th place
   2. Game left: They visit 2nd-place Louisville Saturday, October 13.
      1. SEBA power scores: Louisville = 1.884; Indy = 1.458
      2. PSP observation: Louisville clinched second place with Pittsburgh’s tie to Atlanta Wednesday night..
   3. Expected additional points: 0
   4. Expected total points: 49
   5. Tie breakers: They have 13 wins, and their goal difference is 4.
   6. Expected finish: Gut says 6th; SEBA = 6.5

3. NY Red Bulls II
   1. Today: 49 points, 6th place, 1 game left
   2. Game left: They host 3rd-place Pittsburgh, Saturday, October 13.
      1. SEBA power scores: NYRB2 = 1.397; Pittsburgh = 1.708
      2. PSP observation:  Bob Lilley teams get results in big games.
   3. Expected additional points: 0
   4. Expected total points: 49
   5. Tie breakers: They have 12 wins, and their goal difference is 11.
   6. Expected finish: Gut says 7th; SEBA = 7.8

4. Nashville
   1. Today: 48 points, 7th place
   2. Game left: They host league points record-setter and regular season winner Cincinnati, Saturday, October 13.
      1. SEBA power scores: Nashville = 1.503; Cincy = 2.100
      2. PSP observation: Cincinnati wants to set a record for most consecutive games undefeated.
   3. Expected additional points: 0
   4. Expected total points: 48
   5. Tie breakers: They have 12 wins, and their goal difference is 11.
   6. Expected finish: Gut says 8th; SEBA = 5.9

5. North Carolina
   1. Today: 45 points, 10th place
   2. Game left: They visit 11th-place Charlotte Saturday, October 13.
      1. SEBA power scores: N C = 1.445; Charlotte = 1.213.
      2. PSP observation:  Charlotte versus NC is a derby, so Charlotte will care even though they are eliminated.
   3. Expected points added: 3
   4. Expected total points: 47
   5. Tie breakers: They have 12 wins, and their goal difference is 9.
   6. Expected finish: Gut says 9th; SEBA = 9.6

6. Ottawa Fury                        
   1. Today: 45 points, 9th place
   2. Game left: They host 4th-place Charleston, Saturday, October 13.
      1. SEBA power scores: Ottawa = 1.331; Charleston = 1.542
      2. PSP observation: Both teams defend well but score poorly. Ottawa will be utterly desperate, but Charleston will not. Charleston is second in the league in away draws.
   3. Expected additional points: 1
   4. Expected total points: 46
   5. Tie breakers: They have 13 wins, and their goal difference is -10.
   6. Expected finish: Gut says 10th; SEBA = 8.9

Estimates summarized

Estimated Eastern Conference order of finish – places 5 through 10

Consequent playoff matchups (Editor’s note: In the interval we have learned the actual playoff dates and start times. They now appear below.) 

The good

Winning the finale against Tampa would mean Bethlehem finishes better than last season while playing in a tougher conference.  They would travel away to Charleston for the first playoff game, a tough place for anybody to win. But the Battery have not finished strongly with two losses and a draw, and we think they will draw Ottawa in their finale. Bethlehem would have at least a puncher’s chance.

The bad

Draw the Rowdies and they might squeak through into last place. The playoff game would be against league-winner Cincinnati in Cincinnati, probably a day early on Friday night. Cincinnati might be riding a league-record 23-game undefeated streak.

The ugly

Lose, and the only long-shot playoff hope would be that all other results fall perfectly, then a superior goal difference might break a tie for eighth. A more likely result would be missing the playoffs entirely.