SEBA Projections

World Cup Qualification: SEBA-International Projections through November 13

Below are the current World Cup Qualification forecasts using data from games through November 13, 2016.

Power Rankings

The “Power Rankings” we concoct are the actual “strength” of the team according to competitive expectations. The value represented on the X-Axis is the average amount of points we expect that team to receive when playing against every national team that participated in the previous world cup on neutral territory:

USA is No. 3 for the teams in the Hex.

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The following chart shows the average points bonus for a particular nation’s home field advantage. This is important in explaining why teams may seem to have favorable odds to qualify when lower ranked.

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Probability Outcomes

USA has declined from 87.88% to 75.16% in their chance of qualifying for the World Cup.

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The next chart shows the probabilities of USA’s potential finishing in the Hex.

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The following chart shows the likelihood of the AFC opponent for the inter-confederation opponent (4th place CONCACAF vs. 5th place AFC).

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The following chart shows the “Snub Index.” The idea is based on, if the World Cup were to be a tournament for the 32 truly-top teams in the world (at least according to SEBA), then this chart is sorted by how unfortunately damaged the top 32 teams’ chances are in qualifying for the World Cup (the table shows only the top 29 teams but the graph shows all teams with a chance).

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On the other side, this chart shows the nations outside of the top-32 who, perhaps unfairly, benefit from an imperfect qualification system and are ranked by their benefit (the table shows only the top 29 teams but the graph shows all teams with a chance).

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The next charts show the probabilities of other confederations qualifying for the World Cup.

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(the table shows only the top 29 teams but the graph shows all teams with a chance)

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Over Time

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2 Comments

  1. Since no one else has said anything…wow, amazing stuff. The “snub/lucky” facet is quite intriguing.

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