SEBA Projections

Updated SEBA Projections through September 18

Welcome to the Statistical Extrapolation Bayesian Analyzer Projection System, which is, of course, a tortured gathering of words used to form the SEBA Projection System.

The system consists of a model projecting the probabilities of game results and then a barrage of simulations which account for the remaining luck. So the probabilities you see below show, essentially, what the odds are of an outcome if the team continues to play like it has been.

Below are the current season forecasts using data from games through September 18, 2016.

Power Rankings

The “Power Rankings” we concoct are the actual “strength” of the team according to competitive expectations. They are computed showing average expected points result if every team in MLS played every team both home and away.

SEBA has the Union remaining at No. 6. At SI, they dropped to No. 9 from No. 8. ESPN keeps the Union at No. 8. Soccer America drops them one spot to No. 13.

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Playoffs probability and more

The following charts show the probabilities for making the playoffs, winning the Supporters’ Shield, winning the MLS Cup, winning the USOC Cup, and qualification for CONCACAF Champions League.

The Union went down slightly to 98.6% from 99.0% last week in their probability of making the playoffs.

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Philadelphia has no chance at the Supporters’ Shield.

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The Union increased from 4.8% last week to 5.4% in their odds of capturing MLS Cup.

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Dallas won the final last Tuesday night, 4-2.

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Philadelphia’s probability of qualifying for the CONCACAF Champions League has remained at 8.4%. While the Union fell behind in their odds of the No. 1 Eastern Conference seed, New England’s loss in the USOC to FC Dallas (who was nearly guaranteed a spot in the CCL anyway to Supporters’ Shield, MLS Cup, and other likely alternate slots) allowed for a greater possibility of a free, alternate slot to grant the Union a place in the CCL.

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Philadelphia finishing

The following shows the probability of various playoff categories and Philadelphia’s probability of each of them.

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The following is a “density” chart showing the relative probability of Philadelphia finishing at the different after-playoffs rankings from 1 to 20.

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The following is the list of Philadelphia’s remaining scheduled matches accompanied by result probabilities as predicted by SEBA.

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The charts below show the average results of all the simulations and the probabilities associated with all of the above. The chart is broken up into two parts in order to better fit on your screen.

(Note: CCLAlternate refers to qualifying for CONCACAF Champions League non-traditionally. U.S. teams qualify by winning the MLS Cup, winning the Supporters’ Shield, winning the Conference in the regular season, and by winning the U.S. Open Cup. If a Canadian team wins any of these or a U.S. team wins more than one, the extra slots are filled by top regular season performers.) (Also, “regSeasConfWin” refers to finishing the conference in first place AND not winning other CCL slots like MLS Cup, Supporters’ Shield, and USOC)

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Changes Over Time

This chart shows how Philadelphia’s chances at each of the outcomes has evolved over the course of the season.

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This shows the evolution of Philadelphia’s movement within SEBA and other media outlets’ power rankings.

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This shows the MLS Eastern Conference’s power rankings’ evolution in SEBA throughout the season.

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Records

This shows the odds of breaking MLS single-season records, not of holding them. If more than one team could break the same record this season, they would both be represented below.

(Philadelphia did not break any single-season records in any of the 15,000 simulations.)

The following table shows all single-season records that had a record broken in at least one simulation. However, it limits the records to show only the most probable team for breaking each record.mlsgraphs2016-09-19-page-017

USL Projections

Bethlehem remained at 25th and the Harrisburg City Islanders remained at 24th. USLSoccer.com‘s top 10 rankings do not include either team.

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Both Bethlehem and Harrisburg City were eliminated from playoff contention.

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NYRB II has clinched the Regular Season Title.

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As with MLS, the below density charts show the relative probabilities of Bethlehem and Harrisburg finishing for their final playoff-rank.

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The following are the upcoming matches and associated probabilities for Bethlehem and Harrisburg City.

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The following tables show the average simulation results. They are divided into two tables to present better to your screen.

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Changes over time

Below shows the probabilities of various outcomes for Bethlehem over the course of the season.

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Below shows the probabilities of various outcomes for Harrisburg over the course of the season.

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Below shows the evolution of SEBA’s power rankings for Bethlehem Steel FC and the Harrisburg City Islanders.

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Below shows SEBA’s power rankings evolution for the USL East over the course of the season

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NWSL Projections

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The following tables are the average simulation results produced by SEBA.

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