SEBA Projections

SEBA Projections through June 12

Welcome to the Statistical Extrapolation Bayesian Analyzer Projection System, which is, of course, a tortured gathering of words used to form the SEBA Projection System.

The system consists of a model projecting the probabilities of game results and then a barrage of simulations which account for the remaining luck.  So the probabilities you see below show, essentially, what the odds are of an outcome if the team continues to play like it has been.

Below are the current season forecasts using data from games through June 12, 2016.

As MLS did not play last week, so there are no updates for MLS except for the over-time feature addition (MLS projections can change due to increased USL/USOC knowledge, but changes would be small).

Changes Over Time

mlsTimeGraphs2016-06-13-page-003

This chart shows how Philadelphia’s chances at each of the outcomes has evolved over the course of the season.  These probabilities were calculated weekly, always through Sunday’s matches.

Disclosure: it is possible that I re-ran some previous simulations that I posted on, so it is possible the numbers have changed, but they should be small changes.

mlsTimeGraphs2016-06-13-page-001

This shows the evolution of Philadelphia’s movement within SEBA’s power rankings.

mlsTimeGraphs2016-06-13-page-002

This shows the MLS Eastern Conference’s evolution of power rankings throughout the season.

Let me know in the comments how readable this is. I could cut this down to the I-95 corridor perhaps?

USL Projections

uslGraphs2016-06-13-page-005

Bethlehem moves up from 20th to 16th and Harrisburg City Islanders moves down from 15th to 17th.

uslGraphs2016-06-13-page-006

Bethlehem’s probability of making the playoffs jumped up from 40.6% to 54.0%.  Harrisburg’s chances continued down from 38.4% to 28.3%.

uslGraphs2016-06-13-page-007

Both Bethlehem and Harrisburg City continue to have negligent chances of winning the USL Regular Season Title.

uslGraphs2016-06-13-page-008

Bethlehem’s probability of winning the USL Championship increased from 1.8% to 2.4%. Harrisburg City’s chances dropped from 1.6% to 0.9%.

uslGraphs2016-06-13-page-010

uslGraphs2016-06-13-page-011

As with MLS, the below density charts show the relative probabilities of Bethlehem and Harrisburg finishing for their final playoff-rank.

uslGraphs2016-06-13-page-014

uslGraphs2016-06-13-page-015

The following are the upcoming matches and associated probabilities for Bethlehem and Harrisburg.

uslGraphs2016-06-13-page-016

uslGraphs2016-06-13-page-017

The following tables show the average simulation results.  They are divided into two tables to present better to your screen.

uslGraphs2016-06-13-page-003

uslGraphs2016-06-13-page-004

Changes Over Time

uslTimeGraphs2016-06-13-page-003

Above shows the probabilities of various outcomes for Bethlehem over the course of the season.

uslTimeGraphs2016-06-13-page-004

Above shows the probabilities of various outcomes for Harrisburg over the course of the season.

uslTimeGraphs2016-06-13-page-001

Above shows the evolution of SEBA’s power rankings for Bethlehem Steel FC and the Harrisburg City Islanders.

uslTimeGraphs2016-06-13-page-002

Again, let me know in the comments how readable/valuable this is to show the Eastern Conference of the USL.

 

NWSL Projections

While Philadelphia does not currently have a team, I do very much hope that the league expands to Philadelphia as WPS did before it fell apart. I’ve gone to some Washington Spirit games and enjoyed myself very much (except for having to root for a Washington team).

nwslGraphs2016-06-13-page-005

nwslGraphs2016-06-13-page-006

nwslGraphs2016-06-13-page-007

The following tables are the average simulation results produced by SEBA.

nwslGraphs2016-06-13-page-003

nwslTimeGraphs2016-06-13-page-002

nwslTimeGraphs2016-06-13-page-003

nwslTimeGraphs2016-06-13-page-004

 

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published.

*

%d bloggers like this: