SEBA Projections

Copa America: SEBA-International Projections through May 31

Welcome to the International version of the Statistical Extrapolation Bayesian Analyzer Projection System, which is, of course, a tortured gathering of words used to create the SEBA Projection System.

The system consists of a model projecting the probabilities of game results and then a barrage of simulations which account for the remaining luck.  So the probabilities you see below show, essentially, what the odds are of an outcome if the team continues to play like it has been.

Below are the current Copa America tournament forecasts using data from games through May 31, 2016.

Edit: For anyone seeing this late, I’m posting a new feature as the “Rooting Guide” which shows what the ideal results for the USMNT are for all games.

Rooting Guide

The first table below shows which result is better for the USMNT for each of the first round of games in terms of their winning the Copa America Centenario.

The second table shows how each result affects other goals (such as advancing from Group, winning the Quarter-final, and winning the Semi-final) as these goals are not always aligned with the championship.

The BestRes column is the ideal result (for that objective) from the “Team” perspective.  For example, other than USA’s match, it would most benefit the USMNT if Chile defeats Argentina.  “Lift” is the probability percentage increase that would happen if this result occurred over the current projections.

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Power Rankings

The “Power Rankings” we concoct are the actual “strength” of the team according to competitive expectations:

copaGraphs2016-06-02-page-001

The colors in the chart above are based on the tournament groups. USA is the 7th best team in the tournament which does not account for America’s home field advantage (as the later charts do).

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Group A is clearly the group-of-death containing USA, Colombia, Costa Rica, and Paraguay.

Probability Outcomes

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The chart above shows the probabilities of the USA team finishing in different outcomes. Remember, “Group-Stage Participant” is, by default, eight times as likely as “Winner”.

copaGraphs2016-06-02-page-004

This shows the probabilities of each team advancing through the group stage. USA is the second-most-likely team to advance from Group A. According to SEBA, the USA has a 73.3% chance of advancing through the group. The colors are again based on the group each team belongs to.

copaGraphs2016-06-02-page-005

The above shows the USA having the fourth best odds of winning the tournament at 12.5%. Argentina is the favorite, despite their 3rd-place power-ranking, due to their schedule.

Opponent Probabilities

Below we can see, as the tournament progresses, who the USMNT will likely be playing at each stage (assuming they make it to the stage in question)

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The following shows the expected probability distribution of results for each of USA’s group games.
Copa SEBA 1

And, finally, the following shows the rest of the probability expectations for Copa America games:

Copa SEBA 2

One Comment

  1. Old Soccer Coach says:

    All the data for Argentina and Uruguay accumulated while Messi and Suarez were relatively healthy and playing, yes?
    .
    We selfish Union supporters like the idea of Jamaica not getting out of the group stage. Of course one of their center backs captains Leicester City, … .

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