Photo: Paul Rudderow
Who: Philadelphia Union vs. Houston Dynamo
What: Regular season game
Where: PPL Park
When: 7 pm, Saturday, Sept. 13
Watch: TCN, MLS Live, MLS Direct Kick
Whistle: Geoff Gamble; Linesmen: Daniel Belleau,Danny Thornberry; Fourth official: Chris Penso
Rebounding from Tuesday night will not be easy. Not for Philadelphia Union. Not for their fans.
But after clawing their way back into the playoff picture, the Union cannot afford to dwell on defeat. After all, Houston is 4-1-2 since July, including a shutout win over Philly on August 15.
The Dynamo’s current late season surge is par for the course. DeMarcus Beasley and Luis Garrido arrived mid-season to bolster a lineup chock full of mediocrity, while Giles Barnes and the surprisingly revitalized Omar Cummings have become a dangerous combination (never thought I would write that) in front of a mercurial midfield. This leaves the back line as the gaping hole for a Dynamo side looking to move up in the convoluted Eastern Conference.
Columbus easily tears apart the Houston CBs (click to play)
Old man and the rook
If you played soccer, you would want Dom Kinnear in your corner. When the Dynamo manager backs a horse, he sticks with him. Recently, however, the Horst-Cochran horse has been limping.
Veteran David Horst stepped into the Angry Giant role Bobby Boswell abandoned, and his recent partner has been Wisconsin rookie AJ Cochran. Both players can be dominant in the air but lack elite positioning sense. “A.J. and I are still figuring each other out,” Horst said after the Dynamo barely escaped with a 3-2 win over Montreal. “A.J. and I didn’t do as good of a job as we should’ve last weekend. A.J. brings a lot of good things to the table, and I bring a lot of good things to table.” A.C. senses a lot of frustration in those words.
The two centerbacks were still figuring each other out last weekend against Columbus. In the video on the left, you can see Beasley get caught up the field, leaving space behind. AJ Cochran follows Aaron Schoenfeld’s run wide while David Horst contemplates life, the universe, and everything. Blame blown coverage of Tony Tchani’s run on Ricardo Clark or Luis Garrido if you like, but there is no way that much space should ever appear between central defenders.
Since shutting out the Union, Houston has given up eight goals in four games, handing over the lead three different times along the way.
Ride the wide men
Horst and Cochran need to improve quickly because the Dynamo wingbacks are much more wing than back.
DaMarcus Beasley and Kofi Sarkodie are adequate defenders and potential terrors going forward. Beasley has speed, but the real danger he brings is a good cross and intelligent combination play that forces wingers to defend. Sarkodie has blazing speed but remains a player that seems perpetually on the cusp of turning into one of the league’s better fullbacks. Final third decision-making and the same kind of positioning issues that plague Ray Gaddis have kept Sarkodie from getting more press, and the latter problem must be targeted by Andrew Wenger on Saturday.
Working through Wenger
As he has found success on the wing, Wenger has developed into a strong one-on-one player, bringing defenders in tight before pushing by them. Speedy backs like DeAndre Yedlin have been particularly susceptible to Wenger’s moves since they often feel more freedom to get close to an attacker, keeping their pace as a mulligan if they get beat.
Philadelphia knows they have lightning in a bottle with Andrew Wenger and Sebastien Le Toux. Both wingers are intelligent attackers who have developed defensively under Jim Curtin. But while Le Toux has regularly turned his forays forward into results, Wenger has gotten on the receiving end of moves while stuttering in the creative department. The question is how to take advantage of Wenger’s ability to beat defenders with regularity. Pedro Ribeiro’s goal against New York was an example of a striker learning Wenger’s tendencies and adjusting the run to fit.
As the Union offense develops, Curtin may want Wenger to do more of his work off the ball. By getting deep, the winger can pin a defense back before bringing Vincent Nogueira and Cristian Maidana into play and making a run in behind that those talented passers can pick out.
Seattle crosses/key passes/assists on May 3 (L) and Tuesday (R)
That Okugo problem
Before the US Open Cup final, I declared that there was no debate about the Union’s best lineup. Apparently, Jim Curtin disagreed.
Against a Seattle side that finds success slicing through the middle, the Union sat their best out-and-out defensive midfielder. Maurice Edu had a strong game and got involved in attacks with the type of regularity that Okugo has yet to master, but at the cost of leaving enough space in front of the defense for Seattle to find joy playing the way they like to play. Over the course of 120 minutes, the Sounders attempted only 19 crosses. Far fewer than the 27 they tried at CenturyLink field when they snuck by the Union 2-1.
In that match, Brian Carroll played deepest, preventing the Sounders from connecting passes up the gut. The figure on the right shows that, unlike Tuesday, Seattle’s key passes did not come from the middle of the pitch in that May contest.
Taking nothing away From Edu, Okugo was the right player to use in a holding role Tuesday night. And while commenters have pointed out that Edu has more experience against world class players than Okugo, keep in mind that he also has more than Ethan White.
White’s distribution improved on Tuesday as the game progressed, but he lacks Edu’s ability to join attacks. This wrinkle in the Union system had the potential to wreak havoc on teams in a not-unlike-classic-Beckenbauer-way.
So… what now?
Alas, Philadelphia put out a lineup that kept one of their best eleven players on the bench. And this produces a new awkward question going forward: If Amobi Okugo was not selected to start the biggest game in Union history… what possible reason could Jim Curtin have for starting him in the future?
Every game is a must-win in the Eastern Conference. And, lest we forget, the Union only play Eastern Conference opponents from here on out. Assuming he put out his best lineup for the cup final, how will Curtin justify returning Okugo to the first eleven? He won’t displace Maidana or Nogueira. Central defenders are rarely rested, so White remains. That would appear to leave Edu in the midfield and Okugo on the bench.
Garrido, Clark, and space
Houston is talented up the middle. But Ricardo Clark and Luis Garrido have yet to form the kind of understanding that has made Javi Morales and Kyle Beckerman so effective in Salt Lake City. Clark wants to be on the ball, which often means dropping deeper than he should and pushing Garrido out of the center. Thus, the Dynamo midfield can be a jumbled mess off turnovers.
The goal for the Union should be to send one of the two deeper central midfielders on runs when a gap opens. Much as Nogueira did in Toronto, the Union can add an extra player to the transition without too much difficulty.
Sheanon, Ray, and, well, space
Recently, the Dynamo have found the goal in two ways. One, extremely unsurprisingly, is through set pieces. The other, more interesting route, has been through forward link up play. The cultured feet of Brad Davis and Oscar Boniek-Garcia often lead to deep defensive lines as teams prepare to defend the box from imminent crosses. Omar Cummings and Giles Barnes squat in the space left between defense and midfield, then turn and run at defenders to great success.
Predicted lineup
The Union can counter this tactic by pushing the fullbacks high and closing down Davis and Boniek, allowing the central defenders to stay closer to the midfield. This will require [insert Union starting goalie here] to be quick off his line to punch or claim anything in the box.
Speaking of goalies…
I got what I thought was an obvious lineup wrong on Tuesday, but I will take another stab at what appears to be a clear outcome: Rais Mbolhi will start this weekend.
New York howler aside, Zac MacMath has done everything he can to prove he belongs in MLS. But he was never going to be able to do enough to stay between the pipes for the Union. The money was spent. The decision made. The Mbolhi era truly begins on Saturday.
Prediction: Union 1-2 Houston
I have not predicted a loss in a long time. After Tuesday’s heartbreak, however, I will play the role of pessimist and suggest that the Dynamo grab a set piece goal and one on the ground to climb back into the playoff race.
I’m not sure what the starting lineup will be but I will be VERY surprised if Okugo is not in it as a midfielder. I think the primary reason he didn’t play was that he went 90 on Saturday and Curtin wanted at least one rested player in the midfield against Houston.
I would not be so quick to assume that Okugo is simply being dropped from the starting lineup. This was the Union’s first match all season in which they had the entire newly-augmented lineup available and healthy. One match day XI call doesn’t mean that Curtin has decided that it’s all figured out.
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Now I (along with most everyone else) would’ve gone with the lineup you had predicted, and I still want that lineup. But somehow it wouldn’t surprise me to see Edu and White in the back, with Valdes on the bench, on short rest, nursing an injury, and still not yet up to form.
@Scott – Yeah, I didn’t mean to imply that if someone was hurt or tired (like Valdes, to take your example) that Okugo won’t return. My issue is just that there was little over the past few matches to suggest the change, and in hindsight it is still hard to figure out.
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@Andy – I see your point. But Seattle had 3 cups. Resting an important guy means not getting #4. Philly has no anythings. So you would assume the best lineup the roster can assemble would be out there, regardless of next matchup (Carroll could always play, after all, as he did against NY).
Houston’s top midfield, when the mercury is rolling its way, is superior to New York’s, wouldn’t you say?
@coach – Oh yeah, ohhhhh yeah. No doubt about it. Though I’m not sure that means Brian Carroll can’t keep up. In general, a Houston game plan requires an opposing CM to track late runs more than apply high pressure, so I would assume BC can handle it. Or Michael Lahoud could. But to be clear, I’m not advocating starting either guy; I just wanted to point out that if a midweek match had worn out the Okugo/Edu/Nog/Maidana crew, the Union have something resembling depth.
A win is really essential this Saturday to get some points between us and Columbus — and only then relying on a loss or a draw for the Crew when they face New England.
The Revs have won five in a row — giving me that Murphy’s Law feeling that they’re due to stumble.
I’m counting on Seattle to do us a solid and beat NY. If they let NY steal points, they will have conspired against Philly in a way that will make them MLS Club Enemy #1 for me.
I’m going to bet Valdes sits out Saturday, Edu takes his place next to White and Okugo starts at the back of the midfield triangle. M’Bolhi will start, too.
Concur on your lineup. Big issue will be subs. It’s more than just 3 in 8 when the match in the middle was 120 minutes of USOC Final. Wenger won’t last. Can Gaddis? A loss also puts Dynamo only 2 back in an already overcrowded field.
Casey Maidana Wenger and probably Valdes will sit. They are tired. Okugo will start. He is rested.
I think the Union win 2-0. Moving forward the For me Jury’s still out on JC. Union need to bring in enough skilled players so there isn’t such a drop between the starting XI and subs. Example, a team with actual depth would have Gadis and Williams competing for the same spot. A strong organization would have that at all roster positions. Hoping the Union is building towards that type of quality and depth. Then championships and trophies will come. Union 2,Dynamo 0.
The experts at mlssoccer.com all pick the Union tonight. Kiss of death?