Analysis

Three questions ahead of NYRB and the U.S. Open Cup final

Photo: Earl Gardner

This is the most important home stretch in Philadelphia Union history.

Starting Saturday, we’re looking at a nationally televised six-pointer against New York. It’s a crucial match in the playoff race and I will be watching on my phone at my cousin’s wedding in Pottstown.

Tuesday is the U.S. Open Cup final, and your chance to see Clint Dempsey at PPL Park the Philadelphia Union win its first trophy.

Then you’ve got another six-pointer vs. Houston ahead of the trip to D.C. United.

michael-buffer-rumble

LET’S GET READY TO RUMBLE

1. Who starts in goal against New York? Who starts in goal against Seattle?

It should probably be Zac MacMath in both games.

But that’s not the reality of the situation created by the front office.

The best way to do this is to play Rais Mbolhi on Saturday, and play Zac MacMath on Tuesday night. That’s how you get Mbolhi onto the field while giving MacMath the opportunity to see out the U.S. Open Cup.

Let’s be honest. MacMath is the reason the team made it this far, so it would be a pretty large slap in the face to bench him for the final. If you’ve already killed Zac’s trade value and marginalized and ostracized him over the course of 18 months, then you can at least let him play this game.

Mbolhi played in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia on Saturday. He plays in Blida, Algeria on Wednesday.

Blida is about 30 minutes from Algiers, so that’s one less connection to get to the airport.

If Mbolhi gets into Philadelphia on Thursday evening, he would have about 36 hours before the Red Bull game. It’s not ideal, but the only other option is to play Zac on Saturday, play Rais on Tuesday, and piss off a lot of people in the process.

I’m 99 percent sure that Philadelphia International Airport doesn’t have direct flights to Algiers. Assuming there’s a layover in Europe, Mbolhi’s recent trip looks something like this:

Philadelphia —> Paris —> Algiers —> Addis Ababa —> Algiers —> Blida —> Algiers  —> Paris —> Philadelphia

2. If everyone is healthy, who sits on the bench?

We’re focusing on six players here: Cristian Maidana, Vincent Nogueira, Amobi Okugo, Maurice Edu, Ethan White, and Carlos Valdes.

Let’s look at the other positions first:

RF – Sebastien Le Toux (looks like the 2010 Le Toux)

CF – Conor Casey (still scoring goals)

LF – Andrew Wenger (forced his way into the starting lineup)

LB – Ray Gaddis (playing well enough on the left)

RB – Sheanon Williams (my vote for PSP Player of the Week, and I lost)

GK – Mbolhi or MacMath (see above)

So you’re essentially trying to fit the aforementioned six guys into five remaining positions – CM 10, CM 8, DM 6, RCB, and LCB

This is how I would do it:

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I don’t like benching Ethan White. I think he’s been solid since finding his way out of the dog house and onto the field.

My motivation for that formation comes from the midfield, and if you follow me on Twitter you know that I’ve been calling for Nogueira in the No. 8 spot for the better part of six weeks. The triangle of Okugo, Nogueira, and Maidana gives you a great blend of playmaking, possession, and counterattacking ability.

Sure, you could try Maidana at LF, move Edu into the middle, and run Valdes/White together. But who are you benching, Wenger? You’re definitely not benching Le Toux or Casey.

Edu probably won’t be happy to stay at CB, but he’s been excellent since he was dropped into that role. He’s played extremely well in defense and I think an Edu/Valdes partnership is one of the best in MLS.

3. Do you rest players on Saturday?

I would, but Jim Curtin probably won’t mess around too much.

We saw this back in August, when Curtin made a couple of changes from the Aug. 9 Montreal game, to the Aug. 12 USOC semifinal in Dallas.

Against Montreal, he played Casey for 72 minutes, Nogueira for 86 minutes, and Danny Cruz for 62 minutes. Le Toux played 90 and went off hurt at the end.

Luckily that injury wasn’t too severe, because Le Toux started and went 98 minutes the following Tuesday. Nogueira played the entire 120. Casey played 63 minutes, but Wenger, Okugo, and Lahoud were all fresh for the game.

This week, I think the three subs will have to be Maidana, Nogueira, and Casey. Chaco is still returning from injury, Nogueira is too important to risk, and Casey shouldn’t go a full 90 at his age.

If you save some legs with subs, you should be alright for Tuesday. You could also try running Cruz and White to keep Wenger and Edu fresh for the final.

20 Comments

  1. I think MacMath has to start the Open Cup final…. Wish there was some way to watch it. The whole GolTV thing seems pretty complicated. Not going to sign up for one game.

    just listening to Extra Time Radio from Sept. 8… Andrew Wiebe just predicted Philly would take #2 spot in the east. O.o That would be nice

  2. Actually, if my memory serves me right, for most of the Open Cup matches, we had Blake in goal. So I don’t really buy the argument that MacMath has to see this out.

  3. Blake played against far inferior opponents in the early rounds while MacMath played against MLS teams and is one of the main reasons we are in the final. Also, MacMath has been a loyal teammate and been very productive in what appears to be his final games for the Union. He definitely deserves to start the final. I wish there was a way to keep him in Philly as the backup/spot starter because I think he’s a good keeper and only going to improve. We may regret giving him away for next to nothing.

  4. Wait…Dempsey isnt playing on Tuesday night?

  5. 1. Goalie: you play whoever is in the best form and is most likely to make some big saves against Seattle. I would play Rais on Saturday to see where his game is at, then make a game day decision for the USOC. I agree with everything you said, and most people wouldn’t complain about putting in Zac since he “deserves” it, but this is professional sports. He’ll get over it. You play the best keeper on the day. Period. Not sure if that’s Mbohli, but Curtin needs to make the call purely on chance of winning. I want the Cup. Zac has been making all the saves he should lately, but I wonder if Mbohli has the ability to make saves that he has no business making. We might need that.
    .
    2 & 3 -totally agree with your lineup – for the USOC. For NYRB, we might want to rest a few of those guys. I’m not sure who though. Wouldn’t mind seeing Ribeiro get a run out again.

    • +1
      I know we are still a young team, and I know that the fans are responsible for the team. However you said it perfectly…this is a professional sport and there is very little room for being sentimental about a player. Good teams dont do favors for players. They let the best players play. Thats how you win professional championships. Maybe if this way CYO soccer I would understand…but at the end of the day the best players need to play, not the ones we have crushes on

      • Thank you! Jeez, they are talking like Mbohli shouldn’t even be a option. I know Zac is playing great, but you play the goalie in the best form on that day, whoever that may be. Personally I’d go with the guy who has World Cup experience, over the guy who’s biggest game was a USOC semifinal.

    • No matter how out of his mind Rais plays, Zac is coming off two clean sheets. Doesn’t get better than that. IMO- Zac plays in the Open Cup Final. Once that is over, we can discuss the merits of giving Rais back the starting gig for playoff push once he’s settled back in.

      • I agree that zac has played incredible. I am not sure who should start…I actually agree with you that he should start. I am just saying that because he played in half of the Open Cup matches and it would be nice for him to play in the final is not a reason to start him. It has to be because he is the better keeper. Which I believe he is right now.

      • Lets examine those two “clean sheets” against a TFC team in free fall. First game the 3 posts TFC hit contributed more to the shutout than McMath did. Second game McMath was excellent. There is no “deserves” to play, best player plays if he can go. We could one McMath miscalculation on when to come out of the 18 for a ball from losing the USOC.

  6. 1. The NYRB game is too important to mess around with, considering the Red Bulls are nipping at our heels in the standings. Plus, everyone is rested and healthy now. I say play the best XI against them, maybe with one key substitution (Carroll for Nogueira? Fred for Maidana?). Then play the best XI again on Tuesday, and then rest several people next Saturday against Houston.

    2. I said this on another thread, but I want Zac to play on Tuesday because his expertise on PKs could become crucial if the match goes 120 minutes and stays even — which could easily happen.

    • old soccer coach says:

      I agree with the idea of using the bench against Houston Saturday a week, because the following game – Saturday two weeks – is away to DC United. Supporting the idea is how Curtin played it the last time there were two league games sandwiching a cup game, the first two got the strongest lineup and the third game saw two debuts and some other adjustments.

  7. Mbohli plays v. NY if he can. Zac is the best option for Tuesday because he’s played with the team all season & played well, even better lately. Rais has not trained enough with the team to direct the defense in the biggest match in franchise history – against a seasoned prior Cup winner. I still think JC sets his Tuesday lineup first & it’s the one above. Casey, Noguiera & Maidana can’t play both full matches. Maybe not LeToux. Racing out to a comfortable lead Saturday against a team playing it’s 3rd game this week & then resting starters would be ideal. But if you have to sub so the best XI can go long for the Cup, you do. You get back 3 points against the Dynamo & you have 5 more matches to improve your MLS seeding. But you have only 1 shot at the Cup.

    • Wait so Mbohli can direct the defense in a crucial 6-point game that may well decide whether you make the playoffs, but not in the USOC final. Makes no sense.

      • Go tell it to Sak. You can’t say “Rais is our starter when he’s ready,” then change your mind before a big game. You can explain Zac starting Tuesday (I did). But if Mbolhi costs you the Cup, he’s damaged goods after just 2 – 3 starts. Saturday won’t decide the playoffs. Our 12 – point swing in 4 days didn’t. There are 5 more 6 point games, including 2 with current no. 5.

  8. Who had THIS XI??

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