Photo: Daniel Gajdamowicz

Who: Philadelphia Union at New England Revolution
What: MLS Regular Season
Where: Gillette Stadium
When: Sunday, August 25 at 7:30pm
Watch: CSN, Direct Kick, MLS Live
Referee: Allen Chapman; Linesmen: Craig Lowry, Mark Cahen; Fourth Official: Ted Unkel

Since Week 10, the Union and the Revolution have 23 points apiece. Both teams have done it by maximizing their strong defensive performances and rebounding from bad defensive breakdowns.

Where these Eastern Conference competitors have differed is in how they’ve earned ties. The Revolution offense has a tendency to go missing for long periods of time when Kelyn Rowe and Diego Fagundez hit their understandable youthful slumps (listen to this week’s Philly Soccer Show podcast with Rowe here). Saer Sene’s long injury recovery has also contributed to the roller coast ride that sees the Revolution alternate between dominating a game then limply and unimaginatively pick out square passes.

It is not that the Revolution are that much better at home… it’s just that their defense is. New England has allowed only seven goals at Gillette Stadium this season. That is less than half of the fifteen the Union have let in at PPL Park.

On the surface it is surprising that a team with a full dojo of attacking talent should be so reliant on a stout defense for success. But the pace and athleticism of MLS means success starts with team defense. When the Revolution get it, they can reel off 2-0 wins over Houston and 5-0 slapdowns of Los Angeles. Too often, however, manager Jay Heaps is left shaking his head when his outnumbered defense surrenders the Alamo.

A Revolution in back

That New England is even in the playoff race is a testament to shrewd roster management and even shrewder game management. The Revs have established a top class back line through drafting and targeted transfer activity.

Jose Goncalves was brought in as a third option for an injury-prone center back position. His stellar play next to AJ Soares and Stephen McCarthy has given New England license to introduce first overall pick Andrew Farrell and move Chris Tierney around the back line. In fact, New England may be the blueprint for future MLS rebuilding strategies, with teams relying on the SuperDraft to plug blue collar roles while looking to fill the front lines with homegrown talent and designated players.

In both matchups this season, Philadelphia has won the possession battle but failed to convert that dominance on the ball into opportunities. Eight shots on goal over two games is not a terrible number, but only three of those shots were from good positions, with the rest coming either from distance or from very wide angles. Additionally, the Union have attempted 40 open play crosses against New England, none of which have resulted in a shot on goal.

The Revolution defense is big, quick, and athletic, but they can be an island. With Kelyn Rowe, Lee Nguyen, Diego Fagundez, and even Saer Sene in the midfield, gigantic gaps develop across the pitch when New England loses its defensive focus.

How to break it down

Teams that have broken down the New England defense — New York, Real Salt Lake, Houston, Vancouver — have been able to do two things: 1) Counterattack with speed, and 2) Put bodies in the box. Philly has the parts to execute this plan. In Danny Cruz and Sebastien Le Toux, the parts are in place to put together a speedy counterattack that catches an undisciplined midfield out. There are two wrinkles in the Union system, however, that make it tougher to attack the Revolution.

First of all, the Union rely on one of their strikers to drop back and provide the link that sets the outside midfielder free. If you’ve noticed that Danny Cruz’s runs are often lonely tracks upfield, this is because his vertical game is given space by a checking striker, who is then absent from the play up the pitch. Philly could use Cruz’s speed to transition into the final third and develop a half-court offense, but Cruz’s profligacy in that end of the pitch — well documented by Alejandro Moreno — makes that plan difficult. Instead, the open play cross numbers inflate while the shots on goal remain low.

Second, John Hackworth’s central midfield design flips the traditional four-four-two on its head. Instead of using a holding midfielder to provide structure for a roaming offensive midfielder, the Union use a more stationary midfielder to provide the structure that lets Brian Carroll roam the defensive half of the field. The strikers can fill the attacking midfield role when needed, but otherwise that late run into the box will only be made in video games.

Controlling those fancy feet

On the other side of the field, the Union defense has to play a focused, if imperfect, game. The Revolution offense is incredibly deceptive to highlight hounds, since it is capable of incredible passing moves and Top Ten Countdown-type finishing.

The truth, however, is that the New England offense still resembles a street ball team that has gotten to know each other better over time. The structure valued by Sporting Kansas City, Houston, and Real Salt Lake is replaced by ball hawks who are capable of producing a key pass at every moment. The struggle, then, is getting the rest of the team on the same page. When everybody is looking to play the through ball, who is making the run? Last season, it might have been Saer Sene, but he has been placed in a more peripheral role to keep Dmitry Imbongo and Juan Agudelo onto the pitch.

The Fagundez factor

Thanks to former Union man Bakary Soumare, Sene will play no part in Sunday’s match, but youngster Diego Fagundez will be both available and active. Fagundez’s productivity in front of goal has been the driving force behind New England’s climb up the standings. The youngest of the core offensive contingent, Fagundez has also shown the most maturity. Abdicating some of his playmaking in order to spend more time in the box, Fagundez has propped up a striking line that has remained impotent since the Twellman days.

Jerry Bengston, Dmitry Imbongo, Juan Agudelo, and now Charlie Davies. Big names, big contracts, and big expectations. Agudelo has been the pick of the bunch, yet he remains more flash and flair then attacking focal point. Fagundez’s development has papered over the incredible inconsistency of a very talented strike force.

Union midfield roles

The Union should be able to contain the Revolution attack, but to do so they must be able to hold the ball in the final third. Retaining midfield possession is not enough against a team that can reel off highlights against a disorganized defense. Any turnover in the middle third could spell the end, while a turnover in the final third is less costly against a team that is far from perfecting the counterattack.

Kelyn Rowe’s emergence as a playmaker means the Union need both central midfielders to be defensively responsible, with Keon and Carroll closing down the dangerous Rowe and Nguyen before they can pick their heads up. More will be asked of the Union midfielders though, because the attacking nature of the Revolution’s central men means there will be space behind the midfield to exploit. Keon Daniel is particularly suited to step forward and act as a short vertical link that can punish the aggressive, offensively-minded Revolution.

Can Okugo stay out of the book?

Amobi Okugo is one yellow card away from suspension. If he can stay out of the book this weekend, he will be available for a huge matchup against Montreal on August 31. The Union follow that game with a trip to San Jose, and it would be much more palatable to lose Okugo for that match than a showdown against a playoff rival.

Prediction: Union 2-1 Revolution

Jack McInerney has a history of scoring big goals against New England and it’s about time he poked one home and brought the confidence back into his game. Missing Sene will hinder the Revolution’s ability to move up the pitch, and it makes John Hackworth’s call a lot easier in defense. Expect Fabinho to remain on the left and try to pin aggressive right back Andrew Farrell in his own third.

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