Photo by Ryan McElroy

Who: Philadelphia Union (1-0-6) vs. D.C. United (2-1-4)
What: MLS Regular Season, Matchday 8
Where: Subaru Park, Chester, PA
When: Saturday, April 18, 7:30 PM
Watch: MLS on Apple TV, Radio: 97.5 FM The Fanatic
Whistle: REF: Lorenzo Hernandez, AR1: Walt Heatherly, AR2: Diego Blas, 4TH: Ricardo Montero Araya, VAR: Kevin Stott, AVAR: Joshua Patlak

Fresh off their first win of the season, the Philadelphia Union make a brief return to their home confines along the Delaware to host rivals D.C. United. In the 2 months since the Boys in Blue’s Opening Weekend defeat in the capital, both teams have struggled to find form. The Black-and-Red sit in 9th place, 5 spots above the Union, but only 4 points separates the I-95 foes. Philly will be keen to stack results and get revenge against a familiar opponent, but may find D.C.’s defense challenging to break down.

Scouting report: D.C. United

D.C. make the trip up to Pennsylvania after logging some poor performances in recent matches. Though they are higher than the Union in the league table, they have lost their last two MLS games, and haven’t scored in their last 3. In fact, with just 4 goals, their attack is the worst in the league. Looking at their stats reveals the reason behind their lack-luster offense.

Shots, shots, shots, shots, shots Everybody!

D.C. struggles to score because they struggle to generate chances. The capitol club is ranked 26th out of 30 in shots (71 total) and is dead last in shots on target (19). It’s simple: if you don’t shoot, you don’t score. Their inability to land the few shots they do get on goal points to a lack of creativity. This is illustrated by the fact that even with MLS’s extremely generous assist stat-keeping, as a team, they only have 1 assist – credited to Justin Peglow who assisted Tai Baribo in the season opener.

Speaking of Baribo, the former Philadelphia talisman accounts for 12 shots (5 on target), and 3 of their 4 goals. Clearly, he is the key man in their attack. But, he missed last week’s contest against New England through injury, and remains questionable for a potential return to the Soob. 

To make matters worse, club record signing Louis Munteau is also questionable through injury, though the Romanian forward has yet to tally a goal contribution for his new club.

Talking Tactics

So, why exactly has D.C. been ineffective on the attacking end? It has a lot to do with the formation change. 

The District Club was ranked 29th & 28th in goals allowed over the last two seasons (66 & 70), so Head Coach Rene Weiler has rolled out a defense first 4-4-2. This has led  to an improvement in that area, with just 9 goals allowed and two clean sheets after 7 games. 

Save for a 4 goal home drubbing at the hands of FC Dallas, D.C.’s first choice defenders are solid enough. Kye Rowles and Lucas Bartlet have struck up a decent partnership at center back, and Sean Johnson is still capable enough to bail the team out a few times a night. 

However, the change has also neutered two of D.C.’s best chance creators. The Brazilian duo of Peglow and Gabriel Prirani are natural wingers who found success in the more free-flowing attacking systems in prior seasons. But now, they’re stuck as deeper, more traditional wide midfielders, and it is leading to far fewer opportunities for them to help create.

Bottom Line

Ironically, D.C. is probably viewing this as a get right game. Between lackluster league form and a midweek U.S. Open Cup loss to USL League One side Knoxville, they need to get back on track. Having already beaten Philly once, that knowledge should give them some extra juice in the rivalry game.  

Although Weiler has seemingly shored up the defense, not being able to score is a pretty big problem. If the Swiss man can’t fix it, we’ll most likely be seeing a 5th manager in almost as many years.

Injury report: Hakim Karamoko (OUT – Illness), Sean Nealis (OUT – Shoulder), Gabe Segal (OUT – Lower leg), Tai Baribo (QUES. – Thigh), Louis Munteanu (QUES. – Thigh).

Scouting report: Philadelphia Union 

Philadelphia put an end to their franchise longest losing streak last week with a win in Montréal. While it feels good to finally get the monkey off their back, the Union are far from a finished product and still have a lot of work to do to get back into contention for a playoff spot. With that being said, Philadelphia needed that W like a fish needs water. Sometimes, teams just need a result to go their way to jump-start a good run of form. A home match against another weak opponent in D.C is a great opportunity to keep the points flowing. But it won’t be easy. The Union’s offense has also struggled to score this season.

A Matter of Strikers

Philly is not that far behind D.C.’s league worst attack with just 6 goals. However, their underlying numbers are better than their opponents. The Union have the 8th most shots in the league (98) and while they have only managed to put 28 of those on target, their xG is tallied at 9.7, implying the chances they do create are of good quality. 

After 7 games, it’s safe to say that the offense performs best with Milan Iloski as one of the strikers up top. His stat line of 1 goal and 1 assist leads Union attackers, though that’s not a high bar to clear at the moment. Clearly, the Union have also suffered from a lack of quality chance creation, and that has affected the striking unit’s effectiveness. 

But there is reason for hope. Club record signing Ezekiel Alladoh had a good showing off the bench against Montréal, providing the game winning assist. 

The Road to a Clean Sheet

Another matter of concern regards the Union’s defense. The backline is still gelling, namely the partnership between Olwethu Makhanya and Japhet Sery Larsen. Although the individual talent of this unit is on display, their chemistry is a work in progress. Philadelphia has yet to keep a clean sheet this season. In fact, they have conceded the first goal in all of their league games so far.

Head Coach Bradley Carnell referenced that in this week’s pre-game press conference, saying that one of the next steps for the team was “… the road to a clean sheet”. It appears that the South African has found a consistent back-four, for the moment at least, which should help. With D.C.’s impotent attack, this match is a great chance for the Philadelphia defense to take that next step and keep a shutout.

Bottom Line

Here’s a fun stat: Philadelphia has not suffered a home loss to D.C. since the 2014 season. Across 18 games, the Union have won 14 (1 Draw – 3 Losses), outscoring their opponent 40 goals to 12. History heavily favors Philly to get their first home win of the season in this matchup – as do most betting & prediction markets. But, if their recent poor form makes a re-appearance, the Philly Phaithful will go home disappointed.

Injury report: Agustin Anello (OUT – Hamstring), Sal Olivas (OUT – Ankle), Quinn Sullivan (OUT – ACL Recovery)

Key matchup

Union Forwards vs. D.C. Center Backs

Rowles and Bartlett have done an admirable job so far along D.C.’s backline. In 6 games, the pair has only allowed 5 goals. Whatever combination starts up top for the Union, they will need to wear the D.C. CB’s down with their pressing and physicality.

Player to Watch: Jesús Bueno

The Venezuelan midfielder has been one of the few bright spots for the Union this season, staking his claim in the starting lineup with last week’s game winner in Montréal. More than that though, Bueno has shown he can offer a vital skill-set to the Philly midfield. His positive movement and link-up play are key traits that are noticeably lacking when he isn’t on the field. 

Prediction: Philadelphia Union 2 – 1 D.C. United

The Union are still vulnerable, and likely will be for the foreseeable future. But, they showed some positive signs in Canada. D.C. don’t look convincing, but their defense will still pose a challenge. A silly error or a penalty will probably gift them a goal, but the Union will keep things rolling at home with another win.