Photo: Kyle Storti
Who: Philadelphia Union (1st place Eastern Conference, 63 Points, 19W-6D-7L) vs. New York City FC (3rd place Eastern Conference, 56 points, 17W-5D-10L)
What: 2025 Regular Season Match
Where: Subaru Park, Chester PA
When: Saturday, October 4, 7:30 PM EST
Watch: MLS Season Pass on Apple TV+, Listen in on 97.5 FM
Whistle: Ref: Jon Freemon, AR1: Lyes Arfa, AR2: Ben Rigel, 4th: Muhammad Hassan, VAR: Edvin Jurisevic, AVAR: Robert Schaap
The final regular season home match at Subaru Park sees the Philadelphia Union take the pitch against New York City Football Club with silverware on the line for the hometown Boys in Blue. Win and the Supporters’ Shield is the Union’s for the second time in five years. Importantly, for the team and fans, a win today means the celebration will occur at the Soob.
The match pits two hungry teams with a lot on the line against each other – even the two clubs are more alike than they superficially seem to be.
Scouting Report: NYCFC (W-W-W-L-W)
The Cityzens have quietly climbed the table since the Union last faced them, a 1-nil road loss on April 12 at Citi Field. Currently in third place in the East, NYCFC are trying to hold off Inter Miami who are level on points with 56 but have a game in hand. (For what it is worth, Miami have a 45% chance of claiming the 3rd playoff spot, while NYCFC have a 25%.) NYCFC’s match last Saturday was a New York / New Jersey derby, with the Cityzens holding off the Pink Cows 3-2.
Pascal Jansen, in his first year as Head Coach, has NYCFC embracing a high-intensity, direct, and aggressive attacking philosophy.With the ball, NYCFC plays with speed and is especially dangerous on direct attacks and counterattacks. They look to exploit space left open by opponents who push many players forward. Despite a dynamic attack, the team has difficulty building plays through the center. (Sound familiar?) Often, attacking midfielders receive the ball facing their own goal, leading to less effective long passes or forced plays out wide. In a 4-3-3 formation, the ball often moves to the wings. If the wing-backs are doubled, NYCFC’s attack can become one-dimensional and predictable. While NYCFC creates a high number of chances and averages a high number of shots, their finishing accuracy has been inconsistent. The team has a problem in that it misses many of its “big” scoring chances.
When their opponent has the ball, NYCFC plays with a high-intensity press, looking to force turnovers deep in the opponent’s territory. (Sound familiar, again?) They rank among the top teams in the league for applying defensive pressure. When not in possession, the team generally settles into a flexible 4-2-3-1 formation. The team’s aggressive style of play can be exploited if they turn over possession. Teams that can effectively counter-press them after winning the ball can suffocate NYCFC in their own half.
Player Availability:
- OUT: Nico Cavallo (leg)
- OUT: Malachi Jones (leg)
- OUT: Keaton Parks (leg)
Disciplinary Summary: None (Julián Fernández, Maxi Moralez, Andrés Perea all one yellow away from suspension.)
Scouting Report: Philadelphia Union (W-W-L-W-W)
Despite consternation from some readers early in the season that the Union had not won (enough) against good teams, the Boys in Blue come to the end of the season having done what good MLS teams area supposed to do – beat up on the bad teams. The Union have 11 wins, two draws, and one loss against non-playoff teams; the one loss being a 1-nil defeat at NYRB just days after a USOC win against the same Red Bulls. Against teams currently in the playoff spots, the Union have eight wins, four draws, and six losses. Sure, some of those wins were early in the season, but others like Cincinnati on the road were more recent (and impressive). And sure, one of the losses was a 7-0 shellacking, but another was a 2-1 loss in Miami, in a match in which the Union arguably outplayed the Herons. In other words, the Union are a quintessential MLS team.
Coming off a rough 7-nil defeat in Vancouver, the Union returned home to eke out a 1-nil win over the New England Revolution. But Philly’s most recent victory was a dominant 6-0 win on the road at Audi Field over D.C. United. The match saw four different Union players score and the team keep a clean sheet for the 13th time this season, behind a reunited center back pairing of Jakob Glesnes and Olwethu Makhanya.
It barely needs repeating, but the Union are a high-intensity pressing team that is comfortable to absorb pressure without the ball, and will take chances on the counterattack when given the chance. That said, the addition of Milan Iloski has seen the Union more comfortable in possession in the offensive third than the team has been historically.
Leading the Philadelphia attack is All-Star forward Tai Baribo, who will likely be paired up top with Bruno Damiani. Quinn Sullivan’s unfortunate ACL tear means Iloski will probably line up as an attacking midfielder, but with whom he will be paired with remains a question as Indiana Vassilev is questionable for the game. Danley Jean Jacques and Jovan Lukić are almost certain to start in the defensive midfield. Frankie Westfield’s international absence means Nate Harriel will start on at right back, while Kai Wagner anchors the other side. Jakob Glesnes and Olwethu Makhanya are a lock to play in front of keeper Andre Blake.
Expect the standard 4-2-2-2 formation to use simple, quick passes and runs after turnovers to create dangerous scoring opportunities rather than relying on prolonged possession, however, Iloski will look to maintain possession in and around NYCFC’s box while he searches for an open striker.
Player Availability:
- OUT: Quinn Sullivan (knee)
- OUT: Jeremy Rafanello (hamstring)
- QUESTIONABLE: Indiana Vassilev (knee)
- QUESTIONABLE: Mikael Uhre (knee)
- OUT: Frankie Westfield (international duty)
Disciplinary Summary: None
Matchup to Watch:
Look for either Danley or Lukić to mark the aged (sorry, experienced) but still sometimes lethal Maxi Moralez.
Player to Watch: Milan Iloski
With Quinn Sullivan out of the lineup, look for Iloski to start in an attacking midfield position, where he can drive in from the wings with the ball at his feet.
Prediction: Union 3-1 NYCFC
A 1-all first half gets blown open in the second half as Cavan Sullivan, Mikael Uhre, and Ale Bedoya come on to provide sparks.
The Union need to get a lead and keep it, preferably by increasing it. They CANNOT afford to give up a stoppage time equalizer like they have so many times this season (Columbus, Miami, Toronto).
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Worried that the Union are 1 for 6 in games where they can win a trophy (3 Open Cups, 1 MLS Cup, and 1 failure to win the Shield in Columbus a week before they successfully did so at home).
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I would love to see Bedoya come on late and lift the shield in his final regular season home game.
Good point about being 1 fo 6 in “finals”, but I would argue that is under the last coaching regime. Curtin, while great, did not seem to have the “it” factor to win “it”. Kinda like Andy Reid in Philly. Let’s see what Carnell can do.