Below are the 2018 MLS season forecasts using data from games through September 17.
Some key points up front:
- Union playoff chances: The Union now have a 79.9% chance of making the MLS playoffs, down from 96.4%.
- Bethlehem playoff chances: The Steel have a 78.5% chance to make the USL playoffs, down from 81.3%.
- Plus/minus: The two top players in the league, in terms of their teams’ goal differentials when they’re on the field, are Atlanta United’s Michael Parkhurst and Brad Guzan. The top Philadelphia players for this stat are Cory Burke and Raymon Gaddis.
Interactive Charts
Philadelphia Updated Stats
This following chart shows the Union’s 2018 stats, as compared with typical winning and losing teams.
This following chart shows the Union’s stats in recent MLS matches, as compared with typical winning and losing teams.
Power Rankings
The scores used for these rankings are the expected points-per-game for all league opponents both home and away.
SEBA has Philadelphia declining from 9th to 10th from the last published forecast.
Currently, Philadelphia’s performance expectation is set by the following distribution of minutes:
Philadelphia +/- for 2018
Philadelphia Plus/Minus
Shows the goal differential for each player while they were on the fieldMLS +/- for 2018
Playoffs probability and more
Philadelphia has decreased from a 96.4% to an 79.9% chance of making the playoffs.
Next is the distribution of Philadelphia’s points against the MLS East’s sixth seed in all the simulations.
The Union decreased from a 1.2% to a 0.5% chance of winning the MLS Cup.
Philadelphia’s chances of having a U.S. Open Cup win decreased from 39.7% to 34.8%.
Philadelphia decreased from a 40.4% chance to a 35.2% chance of qualifying for the 2019 edition of the CONCACAF Champions League.
The following are the probabilities of each final playoffs placement for Philadelphia.
The following shows the difficulty for each team’s remaining schedule. Higher values means an easier remaining schedule.
The following shows the expectations for upcoming Philadelphia matches:
Model Validation
The following shows SEBA’s model error compared with random guessing. To do this, we save forecasts for the entire season’s games for every forecast’s data, and update the error charts all the way through the season.
Lower error is better.
USL
Power Rankings
SEBA has Bethlehem declined from 14th to 15th.
Playoffs probability and more
Bethlehem decreased from a 81.3% to a 78.5% chance of making the playoffs.
Bethlehem’s odds of winning the USL championship remained at 0.8%.
The following shows the probability of each post-playoff ranking finish:
The following are the simulation averages in an easy, combined format.
The following is the strength of remaining schedules for each team. Higher values mean an easier remaining schedule.
The following are the upcoming expectations for Bethlehem matches.
NWSL
The following are the projections for the 2018 NWSL season.
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