SEBA Projections

MLS, USL, and NWSL projections through July 29

Posted by Chris Sherman on August 1, 2018 at 10:30 am

Below are the 2018 MLS season forecasts using data from games through July 29.

Some key points up front:

Union playoff chances: The Union now have a 56.2% chance of making the MLS playoffs, up from 20.5%.
Bethlehem playoff chances: The Steel have a 26.2% chance to make the USL playoffs, down from 32.0%.
Largest movers: Philadelphia gained the biggest boost in performance expectations for MLS in the past week, and Houston had the largest drop.
Plus/minus: The two top players in the league, in terms of their teams’ goal differentials when they’re on the field, are Atlanta United’s Michael Parkhurst and the New York Red Bulls’ Bradley Wright-Phillips. The top Philadelphia players for this stat are Cory Burke and Jay Simpson.

Interactive Charts

MLS forecasts

MLS forecasts over time

USL forecasts

USL forecasts over time

NWSL forecasts

NWSL forecasts over time

Philadelphia Updated Stats

This following chart shows the Union’s 2018 stats, as compared with typical winning and losing teams.

This following chart shows the Union’s stats in recent MLS matches, as compared with typical winning and losing teams.

Power Rankings

The scores used for these rankings are the expected points-per-game for all league opponents both home and away.

SEBA has Philadelphia increasing from 18th to 12th.

Currently, Philadelphia’s performance expectation is set by the following distribution of minutes:

Philadelphia +/- for 2018

Philadelphia Plus/Minus

plyr	NetGoals	PlusGoals	MinusGoals	MINS	NetGoalsPer90	PlusGoalsPer90	MinusGoalsPer90
Cory Burke	6	29	23	1427	0.378	1.829	1.451
Alejandro Bedoya	5	49	44	2777	0.162	1.588	1.426
Jay Simpson	4	4	0	158	2.278	2.278	0
Mark McKenzie	3	30	27	1629	0.166	1.657	1.492
Raymon Gaddis	3	43	40	2298	0.117	1.684	1.567
John McCarthy	2	2	0	90	2	2	0
Keegan Rosenberry	2	46	44	2773	0.065	1.493	1.428
Olivier Mbaizo	1	1	0	85	1.059	1.059	0
Derrick Jones	1	5	4	385	0.234	1.169	0.935
Haris Medunjanin	1	41	40	2530	0.036	1.458	1.423
Warren Creavalle	0	11	11	681	0	1.454	1.454
Marcus Epps	0	10	10	609	0	1.478	1.478
Auston Trusty	-1	49	50	3060	-0.029	1.441	1.471
Borek Dockal	-1	37	38	2397	-0.038	1.389	1.427
Anthony Fontana	-1	1	2	99	-0.909	0.909	1.818
Fafa Picault	-2	40	42	2190	-0.082	1.644	1.726
Andre Blake	-3	47	50	2970	-0.091	1.424	1.515
Ilsinho	-3	13	16	985	-0.274	1.188	1.462
Fabinho	-3	7	10	714	-0.378	0.882	1.261
Fabian Herbers	-3	4	7	428	-0.631	0.841	1.472
David Accam	-4	17	21	1213	-0.297	1.261	1.558
Matthew Real	-4	1	5	236	-1.525	0.381	1.907
Jack Elliott	-5	18	23	1430	-0.315	1.133	1.448
CJ Sapong	-6	31	37	2321	-0.233	1.202	1.435

Shows the goal differential for each player while they were on the field

MLS +/- for 2018

Team	plyr	NetGoals	PlusGoals	MinusGoals	MINS	NetGoalsPer90	PlusGoalsPer90	MinusGoalsPer90
New York Red Bulls	Tim Parker	30	53	23	2610	1.034	1.828	0.793
New York Red Bulls	Bradley Wright-Phillips	28	52	24	2536	0.994	1.845	0.852
New York Red Bulls	Luis Robles	28	58	30	2790	0.903	1.871	0.968
Atlanta United	Michael Parkhurst	28	68	40	2903	0.868	2.108	1.24
New York Red Bulls	Tyler Adams	27	48	21	2329	1.043	1.855	0.812
New York Red Bulls	Sean Davis	27	52	25	2579	0.942	1.815	0.872
Sporting Kansas City	Matt Besler	27	58	31	2745	0.885	1.902	1.016
Atlanta United	Miguel Almiron	27	64	37	2760	0.88	2.087	1.207
Atlanta United	Brad Guzan	27	68	41	2914	0.834	2.1	1.266
Los Angeles FC	Steven Beitashour	25	62	37	2644	0.851	2.11	1.259
Sporting Kansas City	Roger Espinoza	25	61	36	2825	0.796	1.943	1.147
Atlanta United	Josef Martinez	25	65	40	2898	0.776	2.019	1.242
Atlanta United	Julian Gressel	25	67	42	2945	0.764	2.048	1.284
Sporting Kansas City	Graham Zusi	25	65	40	3060	0.735	1.912	1.176
Sporting Kansas City	Ilie Sanchez	25	65	40	3060	0.735	1.912	1.176
Sporting Kansas City	Tim Melia	25	65	40	3060	0.735	1.912	1.176
New York Red Bulls	Aaron Long	24	54	30	2806	0.77	1.732	0.962
New York Red Bulls	Michael Murillo	23	41	18	1935	1.07	1.907	0.837
New York Red Bulls	Kemar Lawrence	23	49	26	2438	0.849	1.809	0.96
Sporting Kansas City	Khiry Shelton	22	34	12	1370	1.445	2.234	0.788
Atlanta United	Leandro Gonzalez Pirez	22	64	42	2775	0.714	2.076	1.362
Atlanta United	Hector Villalba	21	44	23	1785	1.059	2.218	1.16
Sporting Kansas City	Dániel Sallói	21	50	29	2290	0.825	1.965	1.14
Los Angeles FC	Lee Nguyen	20	43	23	1832	0.983	2.112	1.13
Seattle Sounders	Nicolás Lodeiro	20	48	28	2428	0.741	1.779	1.038
Seattle Sounders	Chad Marshall	20	51	31	2584	0.697	1.776	1.08
Sporting Kansas City	Ike Opara	19	56	37	2773	0.617	1.818	1.201
Sporting Kansas City	Seth Sinovic	18	35	17	1651	0.981	1.908	0.927
Portland Timbers	Diego Chara	18	49	31	2385	0.679	1.849	1.17
New York Red Bulls	Alejandro Romero Gamarra	18	46	28	2425	0.668	1.707	1.039
Los Angeles FC	Tyler Miller	18	68	50	2970	0.545	2.061	1.515
New York Red Bulls	Alex Muyl	17	27	10	1285	1.191	1.891	0.7
Seattle Sounders	Osvaldo Alonso	17	38	21	1832	0.835	1.867	1.032
Atlanta United	Darlington Nagbe	17	44	27	1970	0.777	2.01	1.234
Seattle Sounders	Kim Kee-hee	17	43	26	2198	0.696	1.761	1.065
Atlanta United	Jeff Larentowicz	17	57	40	2772	0.552	1.851	1.299
New York City	Maximiliano Moralez	17	57	40	2818	0.543	1.82	1.278
DC United	Wayne Rooney	16	35	19	1641	0.878	1.92	1.042
Atlanta United	Chris McCann	16	44	28	1800	0.8	2.2	1.4
Los Angeles FC	Jordan Harvey	16	47	31	2140	0.673	1.977	1.304
Seattle Sounders	Stefan Frei	16	50	34	2970	0.485	1.515	1.03
Seattle Sounders	Cristian Roldan	16	52	36	3053	0.472	1.533	1.061
Seattle Sounders	Raúl Ruidíaz	15	26	11	1098	1.23	2.131	0.902
New York City	Yangel Herrera	15	30	15	1111	1.215	2.43	1.215
DC United	Bill Hamid	15	27	12	1260	1.071	1.929	0.857
DC United	Russell Canouse	15	32	17	1533	0.881	1.879	0.998
New York City	Jesus Medina	15	47	32	1999	0.675	2.116	1.441
New York Red Bulls	Florian Valot	14	27	13	1150	1.096	2.113	1.017
Atlanta United	Ezequiel Barco	14	36	22	1731	0.728	1.872	1.144
Atlanta United	Franco Escobar	14	41	27	1788	0.705	2.064	1.359
Sporting Kansas City	Johnny Russell	14	43	29	2183	0.577	1.773	1.196
Los Angeles FC	Walker Zimmerman	14	53	39	2321	0.543	2.055	1.512
Los Angeles FC	Carlos Vela	14	51	37	2378	0.53	1.93	1.4
Houston Dynamo	Alberth Elis	14	51	37	2422	0.52	1.895	1.375
New York City	Alexander Callens	14	55	41	2750	0.458	1.8	1.342
Los Angeles FC	Benny Feilhaber	14	63	49	2803	0.45	2.023	1.573
Los Angeles FC	Aaron Kovar	13	19	6	523	2.237	3.27	1.033
Atlanta United	Mikey Ambrose	13	19	6	731	1.601	2.339	0.739
Portland Timbers	Andy Polo	13	32	19	1633	0.716	1.764	1.047
Los Angeles FC	Latif Blessing	13	42	29	1804	0.649	2.095	1.447
Seattle Sounders	Gustav Svensson	13	36	23	2074	0.564	1.562	0.998
New York City	Sean Johnson	13	54	41	2880	0.406	1.688	1.281
Sporting Kansas City	Jimmy Medranda	12	19	7	728	1.484	2.349	0.865
Seattle Sounders	Víctor Rodríguez	12	26	14	1259	0.858	1.859	1.001
Seattle Sounders	Kelvin Leerdam	12	34	22	1967	0.549	1.556	1.007
Los Angeles FC	Laurent Ciman	12	44	32	1980	0.545	2	1.455
New York Red Bulls	Daniel Royer	12	37	25	2050	0.527	1.624	1.098
DC United	Joseph Mora	12	50	38	2523	0.428	1.784	1.356
FC Dallas	Michael Barrios	12	44	32	2537	0.426	1.561	1.135
Portland Timbers	Zarek Valentin	12	51	39	2722	0.397	1.686	1.289
Portland Timbers	Diego Valeri	12	51	39	2747	0.393	1.671	1.278
Atlanta United	Kevin Kratz	11	19	8	499	1.984	3.427	1.443
New York Red Bulls	Derrick Etienne Jr.	11	23	12	959	1.032	2.158	1.126
Real Salt Lake	Nick Besler	11	36	25	1431	0.692	2.264	1.572
Sporting Kansas City	Gerso Fernandes	11	33	22	1591	0.622	1.867	1.245
Seattle Sounders	Nouhou Tolo	11	33	22	2037	0.486	1.458	0.972
Houston Dynamo	Romell Quioto	11	46	35	2252	0.44	1.838	1.399
Portland Timbers	Sebastian Blanco	11	48	37	2564	0.386	1.685	1.299
Los Angeles FC	Diego Rossi	11	55	44	2606	0.38	1.899	1.52
New York City	Alexander Ring	11	49	38	2608	0.38	1.691	1.311
DC United	Luciano Acosta	11	55	44	2753	0.36	1.798	1.438
FC Dallas	Mauro Diaz	10	19	9	807	1.115	2.119	1.004
DC United	Paul Arriola	10	45	35	2183	0.412	1.855	1.443
New York City	Anton Tinnerholm	10	50	40	2697	0.334	1.669	1.335
Portland Timbers	Larrys Mabiala	10	51	41	2745	0.328	1.672	1.344
DC United	Steve Birnbaum	10	60	50	3060	0.294	1.765	1.471
Seattle Sounders	Harry Shipp	9	25	16	1230	0.659	1.829	1.171
New York City	Ismael Tajouri-Shradi	9	31	22	1547	0.524	1.803	1.28
New York City	Maxime Chanot	9	29	20	1571	0.516	1.661	1.146
New York City	Ebenezer Ofori	9	35	26	1895	0.427	1.662	1.235
Toronto FC	Gregory van der Wiel	9	53	44	2295	0.353	2.078	1.725
DC United	Yamil Asad	9	48	39	2364	0.343	1.827	1.485
New York City	Rodney Wallace	8	13	5	818	0.88	1.43	0.55
Real Salt Lake	Aaron Herrera	8	27	19	1236	0.583	1.966	1.383
Los Angeles FC	Adama Diomande	8	31	23	1253	0.575	2.227	1.652
Sporting Kansas City	Felipe Gutiérrez	8	30	22	1522	0.473	1.774	1.301
DC United	Junior Moreno	8	31	23	1528	0.471	1.826	1.355
Houston Dynamo	Eric Alexander	8	33	25	1662	0.433	1.787	1.354
FC Dallas	Roland Lamah	8	32	24	1865	0.386	1.544	1.158
Los Angeles Galaxy	Romain Alessandrini	8	46	38	1920	0.375	2.156	1.781
Los Angeles Galaxy	Zlatan Ibrahimovic	8	54	46	2143	0.336	2.268	1.932
FC Dallas	Reto Ziegler	8	43	35	2570	0.28	1.506	1.226
FC Dallas	Maximiliano Urruti	8	47	39	2735	0.263	1.547	1.283
FC Dallas	Reggie Cannon	8	50	42	2921	0.246	1.541	1.294
Portland Timbers	Jorge Villafaña	7	15	8	654	0.963	2.064	1.101
New York Red Bulls	Marc Rzatkowski	7	26	19	1497	0.421	1.563	1.142
Seattle Sounders	Will Bruin	7	30	23	1793	0.351	1.506	1.154
Los Angeles Galaxy	Jonathan dos Santos	7	44	37	1909	0.33	2.074	1.744
Los Angeles Galaxy	Dave Romney	7	55	48	2354	0.268	2.103	1.835
Toronto FC	Sebastian Giovinco	7	55	48	2384	0.264	2.076	1.812
FC Dallas	Matt Hedges	7	49	42	2925	0.215	1.508	1.292
New York City	Jonathan Lewis	6	8	2	219	2.466	3.288	0.822
Portland Timbers	Liam Ridgewell	6	18	12	1085	0.498	1.493	0.995
FC Dallas	Jimmy Maurer	6	22	16	1170	0.462	1.692	1.231
New York City	Ronald Matarrita	6	28	22	1367	0.395	1.843	1.448
Philadelphia Union	Cory Burke	6	29	23	1427	0.378	1.829	1.451
Sporting Kansas City	Yohan Croizet	6	31	25	1594	0.339	1.75	1.412
Portland Timbers	Jeff Attinella	6	29	23	1944	0.278	1.343	1.065
New York City	Ben Sweat	6	38	32	2197	0.246	1.557	1.311
FC Dallas	Carlos Gruezo	6	42	36	2508	0.215	1.507	1.292
Sporting Kansas City	Cristian Lobato	5	8	3	327	1.376	2.202	0.826
New York Red Bulls	Kyle Duncan	5	10	5	353	1.275	2.55	1.275
Portland Timbers	Steve Clark	5	16	11	576	0.781	2.5	1.719
FC Dallas	Kellyn Acosta	5	16	11	674	0.668	2.136	1.469
Los Angeles FC	Danilo Silva	5	15	10	722	0.623	1.87	1.247
Montreal Impact	Micheal Azira	5	15	10	723	0.622	1.867	1.245
FC Dallas	Anton Nedyalkov	5	15	10	770	0.584	1.753	1.169
Sporting Kansas City	Diego Rubio	5	18	13	782	0.575	2.072	1.496
DC United	Kofi Opare	5	16	11	863	0.521	1.669	1.147
Real Salt Lake	Danilo Acosta	5	18	13	896	0.502	1.808	1.306
Toronto FC	Chris Mavinga	5	19	14	935	0.481	1.829	1.348
Atlanta United	Eric Remedi	5	24	19	1093	0.412	1.976	1.565
Los Angeles Galaxy	Chris Pontius	5	35	30	1486	0.303	2.12	1.817
Los Angeles Galaxy	Michael Ciani	5	39	34	1649	0.273	2.129	1.856
New York City	Sebastien Ibeagha	5	33	28	1717	0.262	1.73	1.468
New York City	David Villa	5	32	27	1754	0.257	1.642	1.385
Houston Dynamo	Alejandro Fuenmayor	5	37	32	1763	0.255	1.889	1.634
Toronto FC	Alexander Bono	5	50	45	2430	0.185	1.852	1.667
Philadelphia Union	Alejandro Bedoya	5	49	44	2777	0.162	1.588	1.426
New York Red Bulls	Ben Mines	4	4	0	90	4	4	0
Philadelphia Union	Jay Simpson	4	4	0	158	2.278	2.278	0
Atlanta United	Andrew Carleton	4	6	2	160	2.25	3.375	1.125
Minnesota	Romario Ibarra	4	7	3	271	1.328	2.325	0.996
Sporting Kansas City	Krisztián Németh	4	7	3	386	0.933	1.632	0.699
Columbus Crew	Ricardo Clark	4	11	7	643	0.56	1.54	0.98
FC Dallas	Ryan Hollingshead	4	16	12	767	0.469	1.877	1.408
Montreal Impact	Bacary Sagna	4	16	12	810	0.444	1.778	1.333
Columbus Crew	Cristian Martinez	4	10	6	840	0.429	1.071	0.643
Seattle Sounders	Jordy Delem	4	13	9	856	0.421	1.367	0.946
New York Red Bulls	Connor Lade	4	21	17	1315	0.274	1.437	1.163
Toronto FC	Auro	4	28	24	1424	0.253	1.77	1.517
Toronto FC	Víctor Vázquez	4	33	29	1440	0.25	2.062	1.813
Los Angeles FC	Mark-Anthony Kaye	4	33	29	1582	0.228	1.877	1.65
New England Revolution	Kelyn Rowe	4	29	25	1611	0.223	1.62	1.397
Houston Dynamo	Adolfo Machado	4	33	29	1696	0.212	1.751	1.539
Toronto FC	Jonathan Osorio	4	55	51	2603	0.138	1.902	1.763
Montreal Impact	Ignacio Piatti	4	47	43	2821	0.128	1.499	1.372
Real Salt Lake	Luke Mulholland	3	4	1	91	2.967	3.956	0.989
Real Salt Lake	Nedum Onuoha	3	4	1	92	2.935	3.913	0.978
Columbus Crew	Alex Crognale	3	4	1	97	2.784	3.711	0.928
Sporting Kansas City	Gianluca Busio	3	4	1	153	1.765	2.353	0.588
New York Red Bulls	Brian White	3	4	1	217	1.244	1.659	0.415
Los Angeles FC	Christian Ramirez	3	5	2	261	1.034	1.724	0.69
Los Angeles Galaxy	Bradford Jamieson IV	3	11	8	271	0.996	3.653	2.657
New York City	Saad Abdul-Salaam	3	6	3	273	0.989	1.978	0.989
Colorado Rapids	Cole Bassett	3	4	1	307	0.879	1.173	0.293
Sporting Kansas City	Emiliano Amor	3	10	7	332	0.813	2.711	1.898
New York Red Bulls	Vincent Bezecourt	3	10	7	395	0.684	2.278	1.595
Seattle Sounders	Brad Smith	3	8	5	446	0.605	1.614	1.009
Portland Timbers	Jeremy Ebobisse	3	9	6	449	0.601	1.804	1.203
Chicago Fire	Djordje Mihailovic	3	10	7	582	0.464	1.546	1.082
Houston Dynamo	Philippe Senderos	3	15	12	606	0.446	2.228	1.782
FC Dallas	Dominique Badji	3	13	10	620	0.435	1.887	1.452
Montreal Impact	Quincy Amarikwa	3	11	8	644	0.419	1.537	1.118
Toronto FC	Lucas Janson	3	16	13	818	0.33	1.76	1.43
Los Angeles Galaxy	Giovani dos Santos	3	22	19	823	0.328	2.406	2.078
Los Angeles Galaxy	Emmanuel Boateng	3	27	24	1187	0.227	2.047	1.82
DC United	Ulises Segura	3	24	21	1293	0.209	1.671	1.462
Los Angeles FC	Eduard Atuesta	3	30	27	1502	0.18	1.798	1.618
Philadelphia Union	Mark McKenzie	3	30	27	1629	0.166	1.657	1.492
Houston Dynamo	Andrew Wenger	3	34	31	1710	0.158	1.789	1.632
DC United	Oniel Fisher	3	35	32	1832	0.147	1.719	1.572
Vancouver Whitecaps	Yordy Reyna	3	40	37	1875	0.144	1.92	1.776
Real Salt Lake	Corey Baird	3	37	34	1902	0.142	1.751	1.609
DC United	Frederic Brillant	3	42	39	2181	0.124	1.733	1.609
FC Dallas	Victor Ulloa	3	34	31	2172	0.124	1.409	1.285
Philadelphia Union	Raymon Gaddis	3	43	40	2298	0.117	1.684	1.567
Houston Dynamo	Joe Willis	3	45	42	2340	0.115	1.731	1.615
Toronto FC	Ayo Akinola	2	2	0	45	4	4	0
DC United	Kevin Ellis	2	3	1	46	3.913	5.87	1.957
DC United	Bruno Miranda	2	3	1	86	2.093	3.14	1.047
Philadelphia Union	John McCarthy	2	2	0	90	2	2	0
San Jose Earthquakes	Eric Calvillo	2	2	0	165	1.091	1.091	0
Atlanta United	George Bello	2	4	2	177	1.017	2.034	1.017
New York Red Bulls	Andreas Ivan	2	4	2	185	0.973	1.946	0.973
Los Angeles FC	Omar Gaber	2	5	3	254	0.709	1.772	1.063
New York Red Bulls	Carlos Rivas	2	7	5	264	0.682	2.386	1.705
San Jose Earthquakes	Quincy Amarikwa	2	5	3	268	0.672	1.679	1.007
Houston Dynamo	Juan David Cabezas	2	8	6	290	0.621	2.483	1.862
Sporting Kansas City	Wan Kuzain Wan Kamal	2	6	4	307	0.586	1.759	1.173
New York City	Thomas McNamara	2	7	5	370	0.486	1.703	1.216
New York Red Bulls	Fidel Escobar	2	6	4	374	0.481	1.444	0.963
FC Dallas	Cristian Colman	2	10	8	606	0.297	1.485	1.188
Los Angeles FC	Dejan Jakovic	2	26	24	1148	0.157	2.038	1.882
FC Dallas	Santiago Mosquera	2	27	25	1591	0.113	1.527	1.414
FC Dallas	Jesse Gonzalez	2	30	28	1890	0.095	1.429	1.333
Toronto FC	Marky Delgado	2	44	42	1985	0.091	1.995	1.904
Portland Timbers	Alvas Powell	2	35	33	2072	0.087	1.52	1.433
Columbus Crew	Jonathan Mensah	2	33	31	2347	0.077	1.265	1.189
Houston Dynamo	Mauro Manotas	2	54	52	2633	0.068	1.846	1.777
Philadelphia Union	Keegan Rosenberry	2	46	44	2773	0.065	1.493	1.428
Los Angeles Galaxy	David Bingham	2	66	64	3060	0.059	1.941	1.882
Colorado Rapids	Stefan Aigner	1	1	0	11	8.182	8.182	0
Montreal Impact	David Choiniere	1	1	0	12	7.5	7.5	0
Los Angeles FC	Joshua Pérez	1	1	0	22	4.091	4.091	0
Columbus Crew	Connor Maloney	1	1	0	28	3.214	3.214	0
San Jose Earthquakes	Dominic Oduro	1	2	1	30	3	6	3
New England Revolution	Isaac Angking	1	1	0	37	2.432	2.432	0
Columbus Crew	Adam Jahn	1	1	0	68	1.324	1.324	0
Chicago Fire	Jon Bakero	1	2	1	75	1.2	2.4	1.2
Los Angeles Galaxy	João Pedro	1	3	2	85	1.059	3.176	2.118
Philadelphia Union	Olivier Mbaizo	1	1	0	85	1.059	1.059	0
Atlanta United	Brandon Vazquez	1	3	2	86	1.047	3.14	2.093
Atlanta United	Alec Kann	1	2	1	90	1	2	1
Sporting Kansas City	Andreu Fontas	1	1	0	92	0.978	0.978	0
New York Red Bulls	Ethan Kutler	1	2	1	101	0.891	1.782	0.891
Real Salt Lake	Andrew Putna	1	2	1	135	0.667	1.333	0.667
Portland Timbers	Lucas Melano	1	4	3	143	0.629	2.517	1.888
Columbus Crew	Edward Opoku	1	4	3	150	0.6	2.4	1.8
Los Angeles Galaxy	Sheanon Williams	1	3	2	153	0.588	1.765	1.176
Los Angeles Galaxy	Emrah Klimenta	1	1	0	157	0.573	0.573	0
New York City	Brad Stuver	1	5	4	180	0.5	2.5	2
Vancouver Whitecaps	Ali Ghazal	1	4	3	180	0.5	2	1.5
New York Red Bulls	Ryan Meara	1	4	3	270	0.333	1.333	1
Atlanta United	Miles Robinson	1	8	7	273	0.33	2.637	2.308
Columbus Crew	Patrick Mullins	1	10	9	285	0.316	3.158	2.842
New York Red Bulls	Aurélien Collin	1	9	8	353	0.255	2.295	2.04
Philadelphia Union	Derrick Jones	1	5	4	385	0.234	1.169	0.935
Columbus Crew	Jon Kempin	1	9	8	450	0.2	1.8	1.6
Chicago Fire	Michael de Leeuw	1	9	8	454	0.198	1.784	1.586
Columbus Crew	Gaston Sauro	1	8	7	522	0.172	1.379	1.207
Seattle Sounders	Waylon Francis	1	11	10	582	0.155	1.701	1.546
Real Salt Lake	Luis Silva	1	13	12	811	0.111	1.443	1.332
Vancouver Whitecaps	Brett Levis	1	15	14	960	0.094	1.406	1.312
Los Angeles FC	Marco Ureña	1	23	22	1015	0.089	2.039	1.951
FC Dallas	Maynor Figueroa	1	17	16	1008	0.089	1.518	1.429
Toronto FC	Ashtone Morgan	1	16	15	1009	0.089	1.427	1.338
Montreal Impact	Matteo Mancosu	1	17	16	1102	0.082	1.388	1.307
New England Revolution	Claude Dielna	1	24	23	1334	0.067	1.619	1.552
Portland Timbers	Cristhian Paredes	1	22	21	1417	0.064	1.397	1.334
Portland Timbers	Samuel Armenteros	1	25	24	1590	0.057	1.415	1.358
Vancouver Whitecaps	Russell Teibert	1	33	32	1604	0.056	1.852	1.796
DC United	Zoltan Stieber	1	35	34	1833	0.049	1.718	1.669
Houston Dynamo	DaMarcus Beasley	1	46	45	2208	0.041	1.875	1.834
Houston Dynamo	Tomás Martínez	1	49	48	2455	0.037	1.796	1.76
Philadelphia Union	Haris Medunjanin	1	41	40	2530	0.036	1.458	1.423
Toronto FC	Michael Bradley	0	57	57	2857	0	1.796	1.796
Montreal Impact	Saphir Taider	0	45	45	2852	0	1.42	1.42
Columbus Crew	Artur	0	41	41	2784	0	1.325	1.325
Columbus Crew	Harrison Afful	0	41	41	2864	0	1.288	1.288
Los Angeles Galaxy	Sebastian Lletget	0	34	34	1885	0	1.623	1.623
Montreal Impact	Rod Fanni	0	33	33	2290	0	1.297	1.297
Columbus Crew	Federico Higuain	0	30	30	2381	0	1.134	1.134
DC United	Chris Durkin	0	28	28	1503	0	1.677	1.677
DC United	Darren Mattocks	0	27	27	1267	0	1.918	1.918
Los Angeles FC	Joao Moutinho	0	20	20	871	0	2.067	2.067
Montreal Impact	Chris Duvall	0	20	20	1195	0	1.506	1.506
Real Salt Lake	Sebastián Saucedo	0	20	20	1031	0	1.746	1.746
Portland Timbers	David Guzman	0	19	19	968	0	1.767	1.767
New England Revolution	Gabriel Somi	0	18	18	1042	0	1.555	1.555
Vancouver Whitecaps	Sean Franklin	0	13	13	833	0	1.405	1.405
Philadelphia Union	Warren Creavalle	0	11	11	681	0	1.454	1.454
Philadelphia Union	Marcus Epps	0	10	10	609	0	1.478	1.478
FC Dallas	Tesho Akindele	0	9	9	576	0	1.406	1.406
Houston Dynamo	Chris Seitz	0	9	9	540	0	1.5	1.5
Montreal Impact	Raheem Edwards	0	9	9	809	0	1.001	1.001
Columbus Crew	Mike Grella	0	8	8	480	0	1.5	1.5
Atlanta United	Romario Williams	0	7	7	211	0	2.986	2.986
Columbus Crew	Justin Meram	0	7	7	595	0	1.059	1.059
New England Revolution	Chris Tierney	0	5	5	309	0	1.456	1.456
Sporting Kansas City	Graham Smith	0	5	5	180	0	2.5	2.5
DC United	Patrick Mullins	0	4	4	225	0	1.6	1.6
New York City	Kwame Awuah	0	3	3	143	0	1.888	1.888
Colorado Rapids	Kip Colvey	0	2	2	208	0	0.865	0.865
New England Revolution	Brian Wright	0	2	2	257	0	0.7	0.7
New York City	James Sands	0	2	2	223	0	0.807	0.807
Los Angeles FC	Calum Mallace	0	1	1	29	0	3.103	3.103
New England Revolution	Mark Segbers	0	1	1	45	0	2	2
New York Red Bulls	Cristian Casseres Jr.	0	1	1	97	0	0.928	0.928
New York Red Bulls	Hassan Ndam	0	1	1	90	0	1	1
Atlanta United	Andrew Wheeler-Omiunu	0	0	0	16	0	0	0
Atlanta United	José Hernández	0	0	0	17	0	0	0
Atlanta United	Paul Christensen	0	0	0	54	0	0	0
Colorado Rapids	Sam Vines	0	0	0	45	0	0	0
Columbus Crew	Mohammed Abu	0	0	0	93	0	0	0
DC United	Chris Odoi-Atsem	0	0	0	12	0	0	0
DC United	Dane Kelly	0	0	0	3	0	0	0
DC United	Jared Jeffrey	0	0	0	2	0	0	0
FC Dallas	Jesús Ferreira	0	0	0	3	0	0	0
Houston Dynamo	Mac Steeves	0	0	0	26	0	0	0
Los Angeles Galaxy	Ariel Lassiter	0	0	0	94	0	0	0
New York City	Cedric Hountondji	0	0	0	1	0	0	0
New York Red Bulls	Stefano Bonomo	0	0	0	1	0	0	0
Portland Timbers	Modou Jadama	0	0	0	27	0	0	0
Real Salt Lake	Taylor Peay	0	0	0	1	0	0	0
San Jose Earthquakes	Gilbert Fuentes	0	0	0	1	0	0	0
Seattle Sounders	Kim Kee-Hee	0	0	0	246	0	0	0
Toronto FC	Aidan Daniels	0	0	0	12	0	0	0
Philadelphia Union	Auston Trusty	-1	49	50	3060	-0.029	1.441	1.471
Los Angeles Galaxy	Ola Kamara	-1	58	59	2689	-0.033	1.941	1.975
New England Revolution	Jalil Anibaba	-1	46	47	2706	-0.033	1.53	1.563
Philadelphia Union	Borek Dockal	-1	37	38	2397	-0.038	1.389	1.427
Houston Dynamo	Darwin Ceren	-1	37	38	1858	-0.048	1.792	1.841
Toronto FC	Justin Morrow	-1	37	38	1790	-0.05	1.86	1.911
Montreal Impact	Rudy Camacho	-1	28	29	1566	-0.057	1.609	1.667
New England Revolution	Scott Caldwell	-1	20	21	1524	-0.059	1.181	1.24
New England Revolution	Juan Agudelo	-1	28	29	1496	-0.06	1.684	1.745
Columbus Crew	Josh Williams	-1	22	23	1485	-0.061	1.333	1.394
Colorado Rapids	Axel Sjöberg	-1	18	19	1334	-0.067	1.214	1.282
Portland Timbers	Andres Flores	-1	21	22	1160	-0.078	1.629	1.707
FC Dallas	Jacori Hayes	-1	16	17	998	-0.09	1.443	1.533
Vancouver Whitecaps	Aaron Maund	-1	17	18	900	-0.1	1.7	1.8
Portland Timbers	Fanendo Adi	-1	12	13	823	-0.109	1.312	1.422
Colorado Rapids	Shkëlzen Gashi	-1	11	12	814	-0.111	1.216	1.327
Colorado Rapids	Joe Mason	-1	11	12	759	-0.119	1.304	1.423
Orlando City	Stefano Pinho	-1	13	14	595	-0.151	1.966	2.118
Chicago Fire	Grant Lillard	-1	8	9	563	-0.16	1.279	1.439
Seattle Sounders	Handwalla Bwana	-1	8	9	491	-0.183	1.466	1.65
Chicago Fire	Patrick McLain	-1	5	6	404	-0.223	1.114	1.337
Orlando City	Earl Edwards Jr.	-1	9	10	392	-0.23	2.066	2.296
Houston Dynamo	A.J. DeLaGarza	-1	10	11	360	-0.25	2.5	2.75
San Jose Earthquakes	Fatai Alashe	-1	8	9	353	-0.255	2.04	2.295
San Jose Earthquakes	Kevin Partida	-1	7	8	290	-0.31	2.172	2.483
DC United	Steve Clark	-1	5	6	270	-0.333	1.667	2
Montreal Impact	Shamit Shome	-1	5	6	249	-0.361	1.807	2.169
Seattle Sounders	Tony Alfaro	-1	2	3	220	-0.409	0.818	1.227
Los Angeles Galaxy	Baggio Husidic	-1	4	5	206	-0.437	1.748	2.184
Orlando City	Cameron Lindley	-1	4	5	201	-0.448	1.791	2.239
Chicago Fire	Christian Dean	-1	5	6	178	-0.506	2.528	3.034
FC Dallas	Kris Reaves	-1	1	2	168	-0.536	0.536	1.071
Colorado Rapids	Zac MacMath	-1	1	2	158	-0.57	0.57	1.139
Atlanta United	Sal Zizzo	-1	1	2	157	-0.573	0.573	1.146
Minnesota	Kevin Molino	-1	3	4	140	-0.643	1.929	2.571
FC Dallas	Abel Aguilar	-1	0	1	131	-0.687	0	0.687
Chicago Fire	Matt Polster	-1	3	4	126	-0.714	2.143	2.857
FC Dallas	Paxton Pomykal	-1	0	1	124	-0.726	0	0.726
Real Salt Lake	Alfredo Ortuño	-1	1	2	119	-0.756	0.756	1.513
Chicago Fire	Rafael Ramos	-1	1	2	105	-0.857	0.857	1.714
Philadelphia Union	Anthony Fontana	-1	1	2	99	-0.909	0.909	1.818
Montreal Impact	Marco Donadel	-1	0	1	96	-0.938	0	0.938
New York Red Bulls	Tommy Redding	-1	3	4	90	-1	3	4
Seattle Sounders	Bryan Meredith	-1	2	3	90	-1	2	3
Orlando City	Dillon Powers	-1	0	1	69	-1.304	0	1.304
Chicago Fire	Yura Movsisyan	-1	0	1	58	-1.552	0	1.552
FC Dallas	Ema Twumasi	-1	0	1	45	-2	0	2
Colorado Rapids	Caleb Calvert	-1	0	1	35	-2.571	0	2.571
Los Angeles FC	Shaft Brewer Jr.	-1	1	2	29	-3.103	3.103	6.207
Toronto FC	Alan Mariano Miño	-1	0	1	25	-3.6	0	3.6
Vancouver Whitecaps	Simon Colyn	-1	0	1	4	-22.5	0	22.5
Columbus Crew	Gyasi Zardes	-2	40	42	2948	-0.061	1.221	1.282
New England Revolution	Matt Turner	-2	40	42	2430	-0.074	1.481	1.556
Columbus Crew	Pedro Santos	-2	31	33	2221	-0.081	1.256	1.337
Philadelphia Union	Fafa Picault	-2	40	42	2190	-0.082	1.644	1.726
Portland Timbers	Julio Cascante	-2	29	31	1729	-0.104	1.51	1.614
Real Salt Lake	Marcelo Silva	-2	24	26	1557	-0.116	1.387	1.503
Chicago Fire	Brandt Bronico	-2	29	31	1531	-0.118	1.705	1.822
Los Angeles Galaxy	Rolf Feltscher	-2	25	27	1295	-0.139	1.737	1.876
Vancouver Whitecaps	Aly Ghazal	-2	24	26	1267	-0.142	1.705	1.847
Chicago Fire	Diego Campos	-2	21	23	1197	-0.15	1.579	1.729
DC United	Nick DeLeon	-2	15	17	1062	-0.169	1.271	1.441
Columbus Crew	Niko Hansen	-2	18	20	1031	-0.175	1.571	1.746
Atlanta United	Greg Garza	-2	15	17	927	-0.194	1.456	1.65
Vancouver Whitecaps	Brian Rowe	-2	20	22	900	-0.2	2	2.2
Toronto FC	Jozy Altidore	-2	15	17	877	-0.205	1.539	1.745
Chicago Fire	Alan Gordon	-2	12	14	827	-0.218	1.306	1.524
Seattle Sounders	Alex Roldan	-2	5	7	732	-0.246	0.615	0.861
Portland Timbers	Bill Tuiloma	-2	12	14	712	-0.253	1.517	1.77
Seattle Sounders	Magnus Wolff Eikrem	-2	5	7	594	-0.303	0.758	1.061
Toronto FC	Drew Moor	-2	8	10	569	-0.316	1.265	1.582
Sporting Kansas City	Jaylin Lindsey	-2	10	12	554	-0.325	1.625	1.949
New England Revolution	Krisztián Németh	-2	10	12	466	-0.386	1.931	2.318
Chicago Fire	Stefan Cleveland	-2	6	8	450	-0.4	1.2	1.6
New York City	Valentin Castellanos	-2	5	7	446	-0.404	1.009	1.413
DC United	Jalen Robinson	-2	5	7	348	-0.517	1.293	1.81
Los Angeles Galaxy	Tomas Hilliard-Arce	-2	3	5	304	-0.592	0.888	1.48
FC Dallas	Pablo Aranguiz	-2	2	4	280	-0.643	0.643	1.286
Chicago Fire	Daniel Johnson	-2	3	5	261	-0.69	1.034	1.724
Toronto FC	Jon Bakero	-2	0	2	149	-1.208	0	1.208
New England Revolution	Cristhian Machado	-2	0	2	119	-1.513	0	1.513
Los Angeles FC	Luis Lopez	-2	0	2	90	-2	0	2
Montreal Impact	Mathieu Choiniere	-2	1	3	82	-2.195	1.098	3.293
Toronto FC	Ben Spencer	-2	0	2	82	-2.195	0	2.195
Sporting Kansas City	Kharlton Belmar	-2	0	2	65	-2.769	0	2.769
Orlando City	Pierre Da Silva	-2	0	2	49	-3.673	0	3.673
Orlando City	José Villarreal	-2	0	2	45	-4	0	4
Montreal Impact	Dominic Oduro	-2	0	2	32	-5.625	0	5.625
Real Salt Lake	Ricky Lopez-Espin	-2	0	2	22	-8.182	0	8.182
Portland Timbers	Vytautas Andriuskevicius	-2	0	2	21	-8.571	0	8.571
Philadelphia Union	Andre Blake	-3	47	50	2970	-0.091	1.424	1.515
Real Salt Lake	Brooks Lennon	-3	50	53	2850	-0.095	1.579	1.674
Real Salt Lake	Jefferson Savarino	-3	50	53	2853	-0.095	1.577	1.672
Real Salt Lake	Damir Kreilach	-3	52	55	2784	-0.097	1.681	1.778
Columbus Crew	Zack Steffen	-3	34	37	2610	-0.103	1.172	1.276
Vancouver Whitecaps	Alphonso Davies	-3	48	51	2420	-0.112	1.785	1.897
New England Revolution	Antonio Mlinar Delamea	-3	24	27	1516	-0.178	1.425	1.603
New England Revolution	Brandon Bye	-3	22	25	1470	-0.184	1.347	1.531
Colorado Rapids	Enzo Martinez	-3	24	27	1406	-0.192	1.536	1.728
Minnesota	Christian Ramirez	-3	28	31	1384	-0.195	1.821	2.016
Vancouver Whitecaps	Cristian Techera	-3	25	28	1347	-0.2	1.67	1.871
Los Angeles Galaxy	Daniel Steres	-3	23	26	1320	-0.205	1.568	1.773
Chicago Fire	Jorge Corrales	-3	22	25	1293	-0.209	1.531	1.74
FC Dallas	Marquinhos Pedroso	-3	18	21	1170	-0.231	1.385	1.615
Houston Dynamo	Kevin Garcia	-3	19	22	1103	-0.245	1.55	1.795
Philadelphia Union	Ilsinho	-3	13	16	985	-0.274	1.188	1.462
Toronto FC	Jay Chapman	-3	16	19	981	-0.275	1.468	1.743
Toronto FC	Nicolas Hasler	-3	17	20	947	-0.285	1.616	1.901
Seattle Sounders	Jordan McCrary	-3	10	13	890	-0.303	1.011	1.315
San Jose Earthquakes	Yeferson Quintana	-3	17	20	794	-0.34	1.927	2.267
Philadelphia Union	Fabinho	-3	7	10	714	-0.378	0.882	1.261
Seattle Sounders	Román Torres	-3	9	12	688	-0.392	1.177	1.57
Houston Dynamo	Memo Rodriguez	-3	8	11	645	-0.419	1.116	1.535
Columbus Crew	Luis Argudo	-3	9	12	630	-0.429	1.286	1.714
Minnesota	Sam Nicholson	-3	7	10	525	-0.514	1.2	1.714
Chicago Fire	Drew Conner	-3	3	6	462	-0.584	0.584	1.169
Orlando City	Adam Grinwis	-3	3	6	450	-0.6	0.6	1.2
Philadelphia Union	Fabian Herbers	-3	4	7	428	-0.631	0.841	1.472
San Jose Earthquakes	Joel Qwiberg	-3	4	7	379	-0.712	0.95	1.662
Houston Dynamo	Eric Bird	-3	2	5	340	-0.794	0.529	1.324
Houston Dynamo	Luis Gil	-3	3	6	272	-0.993	0.993	1.985
Houston Dynamo	Tyler Deric	-3	4	7	180	-1.5	2	3.5
New England Revolution	Zachary Herivaux	-3	0	3	158	-1.709	0	1.709
Seattle Sounders	Henry Wingo	-3	0	3	144	-1.875	0	1.875
Seattle Sounders	Lamar Neagle	-3	0	3	110	-2.455	0	2.455
Montreal Impact	Louis Beland-Goyette	-3	0	3	109	-2.477	0	2.477
Portland Timbers	Victor Arboleda	-3	0	3	31	-8.71	0	8.71
Los Angeles FC	Rodrigo Pacheco	-3	0	3	17	-15.882	0	15.882
Real Salt Lake	Nick Rimando	-4	53	57	2925	-0.123	1.631	1.754
Columbus Crew	Milton Valenzuela	-4	32	36	2557	-0.141	1.126	1.267
Real Salt Lake	Joao Plata	-4	30	34	1721	-0.209	1.569	1.778
Montreal Impact	Ken Krolicki	-4	21	25	1589	-0.227	1.189	1.416
New York City	Jo Inge Berget	-4	28	32	1569	-0.229	1.606	1.836
DC United	David Ousted	-4	28	32	1530	-0.235	1.647	1.882
Philadelphia Union	David Accam	-4	17	21	1213	-0.297	1.261	1.558
San Jose Earthquakes	Francois Affolter	-4	11	15	676	-0.533	1.464	1.997
Columbus Crew	Héctor Jiménez	-4	9	13	655	-0.55	1.237	1.786
New England Revolution	Brad Knighton	-4	9	13	630	-0.571	1.286	1.857
San Jose Earthquakes	Tommy Thompson	-4	8	12	630	-0.571	1.143	1.714
Houston Dynamo	Jared Watts	-4	5	9	535	-0.673	0.841	1.514
Vancouver Whitecaps	Bernie Ibini	-4	3	7	422	-0.853	0.64	1.493
Columbus Crew	Eduardo Sosa	-4	7	11	385	-0.935	1.636	2.571
Real Salt Lake	Demar Phillips	-4	4	8	360	-1	1	2
Minnesota	Mason Toye	-4	4	8	340	-1.059	1.059	2.118
Los Angeles FC	Andre Horta	-4	3	7	319	-1.129	0.846	1.975
Real Salt Lake	Adam Henley	-4	3	7	260	-1.385	1.038	2.423
Philadelphia Union	Matthew Real	-4	1	5	236	-1.525	0.381	1.907
Real Salt Lake	Shawn Barry	-4	2	6	204	-1.765	0.882	2.647
New England Revolution	Guillermo Hauche	-4	2	6	175	-2.057	1.029	3.086
Toronto FC	Mitchell Taintor	-4	1	5	90	-4	1	5
New England Revolution	Cristian Penilla	-5	45	50	2816	-0.16	1.438	1.598
Los Angeles Galaxy	Ashley Cole	-5	58	63	2686	-0.168	1.943	2.111
New England Revolution	Diego Fagundez	-5	43	48	2666	-0.169	1.452	1.62
Real Salt Lake	Kyle Beckerman	-5	45	50	2621	-0.172	1.545	1.717
New England Revolution	Luis Alberto Caicedo	-5	43	48	2590	-0.174	1.494	1.668
Montreal Impact	Alejandro Silva	-5	38	43	2367	-0.19	1.445	1.635
Chicago Fire	Dax McCarty	-5	35	40	2259	-0.199	1.394	1.594
Vancouver Whitecaps	Kei Kamara	-5	41	46	2166	-0.208	1.704	1.911
Philadelphia Union	Jack Elliott	-5	18	23	1430	-0.315	1.133	1.448
Real Salt Lake	Sunny	-5	22	27	1414	-0.318	1.4	1.719
Orlando City	Lamine Sane	-5	22	27	1373	-0.328	1.442	1.77
Minnesota	Alexi Gomez	-5	22	27	1322	-0.34	1.498	1.838
Vancouver Whitecaps	Doneil Henry	-5	23	28	1260	-0.357	1.643	2
Minnesota	Collen Warner	-5	24	29	1239	-0.363	1.743	2.107
Houston Dynamo	Adam Lundkvist	-5	18	23	1200	-0.375	1.35	1.725
Los Angeles Galaxy	Servando Carrasco	-5	16	21	1001	-0.45	1.439	1.888
Vancouver Whitecaps	Nicolas Mezquida	-5	19	24	966	-0.466	1.77	2.236
Montreal Impact	Victor Cabrera	-5	16	21	920	-0.489	1.565	2.054
Chicago Fire	Raheem Edwards	-5	10	15	916	-0.491	0.983	1.474
Chicago Fire	Mo Adams	-5	13	18	908	-0.496	1.289	1.784
Chicago Fire	Nicolas Hasler	-5	9	14	778	-0.578	1.041	1.62
Colorado Rapids	Yannick Boli	-5	7	12	768	-0.586	0.82	1.406
Chicago Fire	Luis Solignac	-5	12	17	702	-0.641	1.538	2.179
Portland Timbers	Dairon Asprilla	-5	12	17	688	-0.654	1.57	2.224
Portland Timbers	Jake Gleeson	-5	9	14	540	-0.833	1.5	2.333
Toronto FC	Jason Hernandez	-5	10	15	534	-0.843	1.685	2.528
Real Salt Lake	Pablo Ruiz	-5	9	14	530	-0.849	1.528	2.377
Vancouver Whitecaps	Erik Hurtado	-5	7	12	484	-0.93	1.302	2.231
New York City	Eloi Amagat	-5	3	8	430	-1.047	0.628	1.674
Colorado Rapids	Niki Jackson	-5	7	12	429	-1.049	1.469	2.517
Minnesota	Wyatt Omsberg	-5	4	9	385	-1.169	0.935	2.104
DC United	Ian Harkes	-5	6	11	352	-1.278	1.534	2.812
Houston Dynamo	Arturo Álvarez	-5	6	11	341	-1.32	1.584	2.903
Real Salt Lake	David Horst	-5	4	9	312	-1.442	1.154	2.596
Orlando City	Richmond Laryea	-5	1	6	253	-1.779	0.356	2.134
Houston Dynamo	Ronaldo Peña	-5	2	7	222	-2.027	0.811	2.838
Minnesota	Frantz Pangop	-5	0	5	175	-2.571	0	2.571
Minnesota	Harrison Heath	-5	0	5	121	-3.719	0	3.719
Toronto FC	Julian Dunn	-5	1	6	104	-4.327	0.865	5.192
Portland Timbers	Tomas Conechny	-5	0	5	72	-6.25	0	6.25
Montreal Impact	Evan Bush	-6	47	53	3060	-0.176	1.382	1.559
Real Salt Lake	Justen Glad	-6	50	56	2910	-0.186	1.546	1.732
New England Revolution	Andrew Farrell	-6	43	49	2701	-0.2	1.433	1.633
Montreal Impact	Daniel Lovitz	-6	43	49	2650	-0.204	1.46	1.664
Los Angeles Galaxy	Jorgen Skjelvik	-6	52	58	2585	-0.209	1.81	2.019
New England Revolution	Teal Bunbury	-6	42	48	2566	-0.21	1.473	1.684
Minnesota	Francisco Calvo	-6	45	51	2339	-0.231	1.732	1.962
Philadelphia Union	CJ Sapong	-6	31	37	2321	-0.233	1.202	1.435
Vancouver Whitecaps	Kendall Waston	-6	39	45	2218	-0.243	1.583	1.826
Toronto FC	Nick Hagglund	-6	26	32	1429	-0.378	1.638	2.015
Colorado Rapids	Dominique Badji	-6	20	26	1343	-0.402	1.34	1.742
Seattle Sounders	Clint Dempsey	-6	7	13	902	-0.599	0.698	1.297
New England Revolution	Michael Mancienne	-6	10	16	900	-0.6	1	1.6
Vancouver Whitecaps	Jordon Mutch	-6	12	18	830	-0.651	1.301	1.952
Toronto FC	Ryan Telfer	-6	13	19	813	-0.664	1.439	2.103
Vancouver Whitecaps	Anthony Blondell	-6	12	18	642	-0.841	1.682	2.523
Minnesota	Carter Manley	-6	6	12	502	-1.076	1.076	2.151
San Jose Earthquakes	JT Marcinkowski	-6	5	11	450	-1.2	1	2.2
Orlando City	Donny Toia	-6	1	7	238	-2.269	0.378	2.647
San Jose Earthquakes	Chris Wehan	-6	2	8	183	-2.951	0.984	3.934
Columbus Crew	Wil Trapp	-7	33	40	2619	-0.241	1.134	1.375
Minnesota	Rasmus Schuller	-7	48	55	2547	-0.247	1.696	1.943
Montreal Impact	Jukka Raitala	-7	33	40	2290	-0.275	1.297	1.572
Houston Dynamo	Leonardo	-7	27	34	1770	-0.356	1.373	1.729
Montreal Impact	Jeisson Vargas	-7	14	21	871	-0.723	1.447	2.17
Toronto FC	Ager Aketxe	-7	11	18	732	-0.861	1.352	2.213
Montreal Impact	Anthony Jackson-Hamel	-7	4	11	580	-1.086	0.621	1.707
Montreal Impact	Samuel Piette	-8	45	53	3000	-0.24	1.35	1.59
Chicago Fire	Bastian Schweinsteiger	-8	45	53	2726	-0.264	1.486	1.75
Real Salt Lake	Albert Rusnak	-8	45	53	2592	-0.278	1.562	1.84
Vancouver Whitecaps	Jake Nerwinski	-8	41	49	2212	-0.325	1.668	1.994
Orlando City	Yoshi Yotun	-8	35	43	1970	-0.365	1.599	1.964
Portland Timbers	Lawrence Olum	-8	21	29	1632	-0.441	1.158	1.599
Vancouver Whitecaps	Brek Shea	-8	27	35	1520	-0.474	1.599	2.072
Colorado Rapids	Bismark Adjei-Boateng	-8	15	23	1236	-0.583	1.092	1.675
Colorado Rapids	Marlon Hairston	-8	14	22	1108	-0.65	1.137	1.787
Chicago Fire	Jonathan Campbell	-8	14	22	1004	-0.717	1.255	1.972
San Jose Earthquakes	Luis Felipe	-8	17	25	974	-0.739	1.571	2.31
Chicago Fire	Elliot Collier	-8	14	22	904	-0.796	1.394	2.19
Minnesota	Tyrone Mears	-8	11	19	883	-0.815	1.121	1.937
Toronto FC	Tosaint Ricketts	-8	14	22	601	-1.198	2.097	3.295
Minnesota	Maximiniano	-8	6	14	576	-1.25	0.938	2.188
Minnesota	Ethan Finlay	-8	6	14	570	-1.263	0.947	2.211
Minnesota	Collin Martin	-8	7	15	518	-1.39	1.216	2.606
Portland Timbers	Marco Farfan	-8	4	12	515	-1.398	0.699	2.097
Minnesota	Abu Danladi	-8	7	15	482	-1.494	1.307	2.801
Orlando City	Victor Giro	-8	5	13	418	-1.722	1.077	2.799
Colorado Rapids	Micheal Azira	-8	1	9	275	-2.618	0.327	2.945
Chicago Fire	Nemanja Nikolic	-9	40	49	2443	-0.332	1.474	1.805
Houston Dynamo	Boniek Garcia	-9	37	46	2063	-0.393	1.614	2.007
New England Revolution	Wilfried Zahibo	-9	30	39	1942	-0.417	1.39	1.807
Columbus Crew	Lalas Abubakar	-9	20	29	1771	-0.457	1.016	1.474
Vancouver Whitecaps	Efraín Juárez	-9	17	26	1159	-0.699	1.32	2.019
Minnesota	Jerome Thiesson	-9	16	25	1106	-0.732	1.302	2.034
San Jose Earthquakes	Guram Kashia	-9	18	27	1080	-0.75	1.5	2.25
San Jose Earthquakes	Jahmir Hyka	-9	14	23	915	-0.885	1.377	2.262
Minnesota	Matthew Lampson	-9	11	20	810	-1	1.222	2.222
Orlando City	Chris Schuler	-9	14	23	785	-1.032	1.605	2.637
Minnesota	Fernando Bob	-9	9	18	616	-1.315	1.315	2.63
Minnesota	Marc Burch	-9	1	10	403	-2.01	0.223	2.233
Los Angeles Galaxy	Perry Kitchen	-10	44	54	2339	-0.385	1.693	2.078
Chicago Fire	Richard Sánchez	-10	37	47	2206	-0.408	1.51	1.917
Chicago Fire	Kevin Ellis	-10	23	33	1537	-0.586	1.347	1.932
San Jose Earthquakes	Jackson Yueill	-10	21	31	1293	-0.696	1.462	2.158
San Jose Earthquakes	Jimmy Ockford	-10	16	26	1085	-0.829	1.327	2.157
Chicago Fire	Tony Tchani	-10	13	23	825	-1.091	1.418	2.509
Orlando City	Carlos Ascues	-10	5	15	755	-1.192	0.596	1.788
Toronto FC	Clint Irwin	-10	9	19	630	-1.429	1.286	2.714
Toronto FC	Liam Fraser	-10	6	16	615	-1.463	0.878	2.341
Los Angeles FC	Tristan Blackmon	-10	7	17	492	-1.829	1.28	3.11
Chicago Fire	Aleksandar Katai	-11	40	51	2428	-0.408	1.483	1.89
Vancouver Whitecaps	Stefan Marinovic	-11	34	45	2160	-0.458	1.417	1.875
Orlando City	Cristian Higuita	-11	22	33	1365	-0.725	1.451	2.176
Minnesota	Eric Miller	-11	17	28	1145	-0.865	1.336	2.201
Toronto FC	Jordan Hamilton	-11	10	21	862	-1.148	1.044	2.193
Orlando City	Tony Rocha	-11	13	24	818	-1.21	1.43	2.641
Montreal Impact	Michael Petrasso	-11	7	18	782	-1.266	0.806	2.072
Colorado Rapids	Giles Barnes	-11	3	14	543	-1.823	0.497	2.32
Chicago Fire	Johan Kappelhof	-12	41	53	2604	-0.415	1.417	1.832
Minnesota	Darwin Quintero	-12	43	55	2396	-0.451	1.615	2.066
San Jose Earthquakes	Shea Salinas	-12	27	39	1820	-0.593	1.335	1.929
Vancouver Whitecaps	Jose Aja	-12	24	36	1512	-0.714	1.429	2.143
Toronto FC	Eriq Zavaleta	-12	24	36	1488	-0.726	1.452	2.177
Minnesota	Angelo Rodriguez	-12	9	21	871	-1.24	0.93	2.17
San Jose Earthquakes	Chris Wondolowski	-13	36	49	2289	-0.511	1.415	1.927
Minnesota	Bobby Shuttleworth	-13	38	51	2250	-0.52	1.52	2.04
Colorado Rapids	Deklan Wynne	-13	27	40	2006	-0.583	1.211	1.795
Colorado Rapids	Sam Nicholson	-13	18	31	1521	-0.769	1.065	1.834
Orlando City	Shane O'Neill	-13	13	26	1118	-1.047	1.047	2.093
Chicago Fire	Brandon Vincent	-14	42	56	2827	-0.446	1.337	1.783
Minnesota	Ibson	-14	34	48	2099	-0.6	1.458	2.058
San Jose Earthquakes	Harold Cummings	-14	26	40	1874	-0.672	1.249	1.921
Colorado Rapids	Kortne Ford	-14	9	23	1141	-1.104	0.71	1.814
Minnesota	Miguel Ibarra	-15	47	62	2716	-0.497	1.557	2.054
Orlando City	Will Johnson	-15	29	44	2195	-0.615	1.189	1.804
Orlando City	Chris Mueller	-15	33	48	2056	-0.657	1.445	2.101
Orlando City	Amro Tarek	-15	28	43	1697	-0.796	1.485	2.28
Colorado Rapids	Johan Blomberg	-15	19	34	1657	-0.815	1.032	1.847
Orlando City	Jonathan Spector	-15	8	23	1060	-1.274	0.679	1.953
San Jose Earthquakes	Andrew Tarbell	-16	44	60	2610	-0.552	1.517	2.069
Orlando City	Dom Dwyer	-16	34	50	2244	-0.642	1.364	2.005
Orlando City	Mohamed El-Munir	-16	34	50	2089	-0.689	1.465	2.154
Orlando City	Justin Meram	-16	18	34	1273	-1.131	1.273	2.404
San Jose Earthquakes	Anibal Godoy	-17	35	52	2348	-0.652	1.342	1.993
Vancouver Whitecaps	Marcel de Jong	-17	19	36	1393	-1.098	1.228	2.326
Colorado Rapids	Kellyn Acosta	-17	8	25	1040	-1.471	0.692	2.163
Orlando City	RJ Allen	-17	12	29	966	-1.584	1.118	2.702
Minnesota	Michael Boxall	-18	48	66	2880	-0.562	1.5	2.062
San Jose Earthquakes	Magnus Eriksson	-18	44	62	2494	-0.65	1.588	2.237
San Jose Earthquakes	Danny Hoesen	-18	37	55	2489	-0.651	1.338	1.989
Vancouver Whitecaps	Felipe	-18	35	53	2202	-0.736	1.431	2.166
Orlando City	Scott Sutter	-18	20	38	1567	-1.034	1.149	2.183
Colorado Rapids	Dillon Serna	-18	12	30	1181	-1.372	0.914	2.286
Colorado Rapids	Jack McBean	-18	12	30	1060	-1.528	1.019	2.547
Orlando City	Josue Colman	-18	11	29	1054	-1.537	0.939	2.476
San Jose Earthquakes	Valeri Qazaishvili	-20	45	65	2717	-0.662	1.491	2.153
Minnesota	Brent Kallman	-20	31	51	1953	-0.922	1.429	2.35
Colorado Rapids	Edgar Castillo	-21	30	51	2440	-0.775	1.107	1.881
San Jose Earthquakes	Florian Jungwirth	-21	39	60	2400	-0.788	1.463	2.25
San Jose Earthquakes	Nick Lima	-22	49	71	3049	-0.649	1.446	2.096
Colorado Rapids	Tim Howard	-23	35	58	2900	-0.714	1.086	1.8
Colorado Rapids	Jack Price	-24	32	56	2750	-0.785	1.047	1.833
Orlando City	Sacha Kljestan	-26	34	60	2522	-0.928	1.213	2.141
Colorado Rapids	Danny Wilson	-26	19	45	1935	-1.209	0.884	2.093
Colorado Rapids	Tommy Smith	-27	36	63	2969	-0.818	1.091	1.91
Orlando City	Joe Bendik	-27	31	58	2218	-1.096	1.258	2.353
Orlando City	Oriol Rosell	-28	17	45	1701	-1.481	0.899	2.381

Playoffs probability and more

Philadelphia has increased from a 20.5% to a 56.2% chance of making the playoffs.

Next is the distribution of Philadelphia’s points against the MLS East’s sixth seed in all the simulations.

The Union increased from a 0-ish% to a 0.2% chance of winning the MLS Cup.

Philadelphia’s chances of having a U.S. Open Cup win increased from 10.6% to 16.2%.

These odds include the semi-final and final draw scenarios.

Philadelphia increased from a 10.6% chance to a 16.4% chance of qualifying for the 2019 edition of the CONCACAF Champions League.

The following are Philadelphia’s odds at different prizes over time.

The following are the probabilities of each final playoffs placement for Philadelphia.

The following shows the summary of the simulations in an easy table format.

Team	Conf	pts	W	L	T	GF	GA	GD	powerRk	pwrScr	Plyfs	MLSCup	Shld	USOCChmp	CANChmp	CCLQual	CCLChmp	confRegSeasFinish	regSeasFinish	plyfFinish
New York Red Bulls	East	71	22	7	5	62	33	29	2	1.852	100	30.7	100	0	NA	69.7	0	1	1	2.9
Atlanta United	East	69	21	7	6	70	44	26	1	1.871	100	24.1	0	0	NA	100	NA	2	2	3.3
Sporting Kansas City	West	62	18	8	8	65	40	25	3	1.736	100	14.9	0	0	NA	100	NA	1	3	3.6
Seattle Sounders	West	59	18	11	5	52	37	15	5	1.613	100	8.1	0	0	NA	8.1	0	2	4	4.4
Los Angeles FC	West	57	16	9	9	68	52	16	4	1.65	100	7.7	0	0	NA	7.7	NA	3	5	5.2
FC Dallas	West	57	16	9	9	52	44	8	6	1.571	100	4.2	0	0	NA	4.2	0	4	6	6.4
New York City	East	56	16	10	8	59	45	14	8	1.547	100	3.3	0	0	NA	3.3	NA	3	7	6.7
Portland Timbers	West	54	15	10	9	54	48	6	7	1.554	100	1.8	0	0	NA	1.8	NA	5	8	8.2
DC United	East	51	14	11	9	60	50	10	9	1.521	100	3.5	0	0	NA	3.5	NA	4	9	7.3
Columbus Crew	East	51	14	11	9	43	45	-2	11	1.4	100	0.7	0	0	NA	0.7	NA	5	10	9.3
Philadelphia Union	East	50	15	14	5	49	50	-1	10	1.416	100	0.6	0	0	NA	0.6	NA	6	11	9.9
Real Salt Lake	West	49	14	13	7	55	58	-3	15	1.319	100	0.3	0	0	NA	0.3	NA	6	12	10.9
Los Angeles Galaxy	West	48	13	12	9	66	64	2	14	1.322	0	0	0	0	NA	0	NA	7	13	13
Vancouver Whitecaps	West	47	13	13	8	54	67	-13	16	1.227	0	0	0	NA	0	0	NA	8	14	14
Montreal Impact	East	46	14	16	4	47	53	-6	12	1.388	0	0	0	NA	0	0	NA	7	15	15
New England Revolution	East	41	10	13	11	49	55	-6	18	1.189	0	0	0	0	NA	0	NA	8	16	16
Houston Dynamo	West	38	10	16	8	58	58	0	17	1.199	0	0	0	100	NA	100	NA	9	17	17
Minnesota United	West	36	11	20	3	49	71	-22	21	0.963	0	0	0	0	NA	0	NA	10	18	18
Toronto FC	East	36	10	18	6	59	64	-5	13	1.342	0	0	0	NA	100	100	0	9	19	19
Chicago Fire	East	32	8	18	8	48	61	-13	19	1.068	0	0	0	0	NA	0	NA	10	20	20
Colorado Rapids	West	31	8	19	7	36	63	-27	22	0.926	0	0	0	0	NA	0	0	11	21	21
Orlando City	East	28	8	22	4	43	74	-31	20	0.975	0	0	0	0	NA	0	NA	11	22	22
San Jose Earthquakes	West	21	4	21	9	49	71	-22	23	0.806	0	0	0	0	NA	0	NA	12	23	23

Next is a table showing the difference between this forecast and the last forecast.

Team	Conf	pts	W	L	T	GF	GA	GD	powerRk	pwrScr	Plyfs	MLSCup	Shld	USOCChmp	CANChmp	CCLQual	CCLChmp	confRegSeasFinish	regSeasFinish	plyfFinish
New York Red Bulls	East	0.3	0.1	-0.1	-0.1	-1.7	-0.7	-1	0	0.017	0	1.4	55.6	0	NA	0.4	0	-0.6	-0.6	-0.1
Atlanta United	East	-1.6	-0.5	0.6	-0.1	-1	2.1	-3.1	0	-0.047	0	-3.4	-55.6	0	NA	0	NA	0.6	0.6	0.3
Sporting Kansas City	West	1	0.4	-0.2	-0.2	0	-0.2	0.2	0	0.03	0	2.4	0	0	NA	0	NA	-0.5	-0.5	-0.4
Seattle Sounders	West	0.4	0.2	-0.1	-0.1	-0.1	0.2	-0.4	-1	0.017	0	1.5	0	0	NA	1.5	0	-0.7	-0.7	-0.7
Los Angeles FC	West	-0.8	-0.2	0.4	-0.2	-0.2	0	-0.2	0	-0.009	0	-0.3	0	0	NA	-0.3	NA	0	0	-0.1
FC Dallas	West	-1.7	-0.5	0.7	-0.2	-0.7	0.7	-1.4	-1	-0.02	0	-1.7	0	0	NA	-1.7	0	1.1	1.1	0.9
New York City	East	1.1	0.4	-0.3	-0.1	1.1	-0.1	1.2	-1	0.048	0	1.3	0	0	NA	1.3	NA	-0.4	-1	-0.8
Portland Timbers	West	-1.4	-0.4	0.6	-0.2	-0.7	0.3	-1	2	-0.045	0	-1.1	0	0	NA	-1.1	NA	0.2	0.7	0.5
DC United	East	-0.4	-0.4	-0.4	0.8	-1.7	-1.7	0	1	-0.025	0	0.7	0	0	NA	0.7	NA	-0.8	-1.1	-1
Columbus Crew	East	0.6	0.2	-0.1	-0.1	0.9	1.2	-0.3	-1	-0.001	7.9	0	0	0	NA	0	NA	-0.3	-1.3	-0.6
Philadelphia Union	East	-1	-0.3	0.4	-0.1	-0.1	1.1	-1.2	0	-0.009	0	-0.4	0	0	NA	-0.4	NA	1.4	1	1
Real Salt Lake	West	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.013	70	0.2	0	0	NA	0.2	NA	-0.7	-0.8	-1.6
Los Angeles Galaxy	West	-2.2	-0.7	0.8	-0.1	-0.6	1.2	-1.8	1	-0.059	-70	-0.7	0	0	NA	-0.7	NA	0.7	2.1	2.4
Vancouver Whitecaps	West	1.5	0.6	-0.4	-0.2	0.3	-0.7	1	0	0.023	0	0	0	NA	0	0	NA	0	-0.8	-0.8
Montreal Impact	East	-1.1	-0.3	0.5	-0.1	-1.3	-0.9	-0.5	1	-0.024	-7.9	0	0	NA	0	0	NA	0.1	1.3	1.3
New England Revolution	East	1.2	0.5	-0.3	-0.1	-0.9	-1.3	0.5	1	0.018	0	0	0	0	NA	0	NA	0	-0.1	-0.1
Houston Dynamo	West	2.4	0.8	-0.7	-0.1	1.2	-0.6	1.8	-1	0.048	0	0	0	0	NA	0	NA	-0.9	-1.1	-1.1
Minnesota United	West	-0.5	-0.1	0.2	-0.1	1.2	0.9	0.3	1	-0.023	0	0	0	0	NA	0	NA	0.9	0.9	0.9
Toronto FC	East	1.7	0.6	-0.5	-0.1	2.1	-1	3.1	-2	0.055	0	0	0	NA	0	0	0	-0.2	0.1	0.1
Chicago Fire	East	-0.4	-0.4	-0.4	0.8	-1.7	-1.7	0	0	-0.028	0	0	0	0	NA	0	NA	0.2	0.2	0.2
Colorado Rapids	West	1.9	0.7	-0.5	-0.2	0.7	-0.7	1.4	0	0.035	0	0	0	0	NA	0	0	0	-0.6	-0.6
Orlando City	East	-0.2	-0.1	0.1	-0.1	-0.7	-1.7	1	-1	-0.006	0	0	0	0	NA	0	NA	0	0.6	0.6
San Jose Earthquakes	West	-0.3	-0.1	0.2	-0.1	0.2	-0.1	0.4	0	-0.006	0	0	0	0	NA	0	NA	0	0	0

The following shows the difficulty for each team’s remaining schedule. Higher values means an easier remaining schedule.

The following shows the expectations for upcoming Philadelphia matches:

Model Validation

The following shows SEBA’s model error compared with random guessing. To do this, we save forecasts for the entire season’s games for every forecast’s data, and update the error charts all the way through the season.

Lower error is better.

USL

Power Rankings

SEBA has Bethlehem declining from 17th to 19th.

Playoffs probability and more

Bethlehem decreased from a 32.0% to a 26.2% chance of making the playoffs.

Bethlehem’s odds of winning the USL championship declined from 0.4% to 0.3%.

The following is Bethlehem’s odds at different prizes over time.

The following shows the probability of each post-playoff ranking finish:

The following are the simulation averages in an easy, combined format.

The following is the strength of remaining schedules for each team. Higher values mean an easier remaining schedule.

The following are the upcoming expectations for Bethlehem matches.

NWSL

The following are the projections for the 2018 NWSL season.

The following shows the remaining strength of schedule, as we project. Higher values represent easier remaining schedules.

Author: Chris Sherman Chris is a data scientist who was a mediocre left back and center back for the Upper Dublin High School..... JV team. He then got a Computer Science & Business degree from Lehigh University and a Master's' degree from Northwestern University in Predictive Analytics. He likes data and building programs to do his thinking for him.

11 Comments

JB says:
August 1, 2018 at 11:52 am

Chris, any idea why the playoff % increased so much?
.
Looking at the playoff chances over the last few weeks it’s pretty noisy. Same with the Union’s SEBA power rank. The only other team that seems to have similar noise in the power ranking is Chicago. All the other teams seem to have somewhat small week to week variations. Any idea what’s causing this?

Reply
- Andy Muenz says:
  August 1, 2018 at 11:56 am
  
  Union got a win on the road while Montreal lost, Chicago lost, and Orlando lost twice.
  
  Reply
  - JB says:
    August 1, 2018 at 12:18 pm
    
    Right, but Montreal and Chicago stayed in the same place in the power rankings. The Union did basically swap places with Montreal this week.
    .
    But looking at the power rankings over time, there’s no other team with as much up and down and by as much at the Union. It’s like the model doesn’t know what to do with them and I was wondering why.
    .
    If it was due only to the games Harris and Dockal missed becoming more and less relevant in the model, I wouldn’t expect that amount of volatility.
  - Chris Sherman says:
    August 1, 2018 at 12:48 pm
    
    Yeah, primary culprit for Philadelphia’s odds and power-rankings variation are that they’ve won their last 2 road games and lost their last 2 (MLS) home games. All 4 of those outcomes were varying degrees of unexpected due to the power of home field advantage in MLS. For example, I think the model gave the Union only about a 15% chance of winning in Houston, so that gave them a huge boost over expected points in addition to better expectations moving forward.
    –
    Also, teams on the playoff bubble, like Philadelphia, are more likely to have wild swings in playoff odds this late in the season, given the less uncertainty with fewer matches remaining.
    –
    If you look at the power scores over time in the interactive chart, instead of the rankings of those, the scores change a decent amount but not as wildly as the rankings appear. The model somewhat consistently puts Philadelphia as a “Tier 3” club, but has been confused as to where within that Tier they rank when the match results keep being inconsistent with expectations.
  - Chris Sherman says:
    August 1, 2018 at 1:03 pm
    
    Actually JB, Montreal dropped 5 spots in the Power Ranking. I’m guessing you’ve encountered a bug I’ve recently discovered for the table-plugin we use.
    –
    When I re-upload data to the table, it shows as updated right away when I’m logged into the site, but when I’m logged out it can take up to 2 days to update. I have a work-around for next week where I’ll simply delete the whole table and re-create it with fresh data.
  - JB says:
    August 1, 2018 at 3:27 pm
    
    I was actually looking at the power rank over time chart, Union from 18 to 12 and Montreal from 12 to 17.
    .
    That’s also where I was comparing the up and down of the Union compared to everyone else. Since mid-June SEBA has had them up and down several spots a few different times. Almost every other team only made one large move over the same time peroid.
    .
    The Union losing games they’re supposed to win and winning games they’re supposed to lose does explain this, but it’s weird that each game has had such a large effect dating back that far.
  - JB says:
    August 1, 2018 at 3:31 pm
    
    It’s almost like the model is validating the kneejerk fan reactions after every game:
    .
    Union win = we’re great!
    .
    Union lose = WSSM
    .
    And opinions on every other team remain somewhat constant.
Andy Muenz says:
August 1, 2018 at 11:53 am

Given that the Union’s expected points from Saturday is 0.44, I’m wondering how much losing would negatively affect their playoff chances. Theoretically it probably shouldn’t be much, but it seems like individual games can produce big swings. Obviously, outcomes in other games play a major factor as well.

Reply
- Chris Sherman says:
  August 1, 2018 at 12:50 pm
  
  Yeah, it shouldn’t be much on its own, but as you point out, the results of other clubs could impact the Union’s odds more.
  
  Reply
Andy Muenz says:
August 1, 2018 at 12:30 pm

Chris, I would be interested in seeing what the expected point values of the other teams are for their upcoming games each week. For example, did Montreal have a high expectation at home against Atlanta which cost them likely points and helped the Union’s playoff expectation?

Reply
- Chris Sherman says:
  August 1, 2018 at 12:56 pm
  
  This isn’t exactly what you were looking for, but you can get some of that from the table showing the difference in season simulations between this forecast and the last. If you hit ctrl+F and use “Next is a table showing the difference between this forecast and the last forecast.”, you’ll see this (although sometimes there are caching issues with our website where the data takes a day or two to update from last week).
  –
  Montreal’s expectation of average season points went down by 2.6 points, while Atlanta’s went up by 2.2 points, so I’d say Montreal was expected to take the win more than Atlanta was.
  
  Reply

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The Philly Soccer Page

MLS, USL, and NWSL projections through July 29

Interactive Charts

Philadelphia Updated Stats

Power Rankings

Philadelphia +/- for 2018

Philadelphia Plus/Minus

MLS +/- for 2018

Playoffs probability and more

Model Validation

USL

Power Rankings

Playoffs probability and more

NWSL

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Comments

The Philly Soccer Page

MLS, USL, and NWSL projections through July 29

Interactive Charts

Philadelphia Updated Stats

Power Rankings

Philadelphia +/- for 2018

Philadelphia Plus/Minus

MLS +/- for 2018

Playoffs probability and more

Model Validation

USL

Power Rankings

Playoffs probability and more

NWSL

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