Welcome to the Statistical Extrapolation Bayesian Analyzer Projection System, which is, of course, a tortured gathering of words used to form the SEBA Projection System.

The system consists of a model projecting the probabilities of game results and then a barrage of simulations which account for the remaining luck. So the probabilities you see below show, essentially, what the odds are of an outcome if the team continues to play like it has been.

Below are the current season forecasts using data from games through October 23, 2016.

Playoffs

Below here we see SEBA’s projected odds of each team advancing. Philadelphia is given a 33.37% chance of advancing, which might be generous given the Union’s lackluster play (in particular) the last two weeks. Being on the road is rough.

Next we see SEBA’s probabilities of scores over 100,000 simulations of the match.  These scores are predicted through regular time and open-play-overtime.

According to SEBA, the most probable outcome for the Union is a 2-0 loss, followed by a 1-1 draw going in to PK’s, and then a 2-2 draw going in to PK’s.

Power Rankings

The “Power Rankings” we concoct are the actual “strength” of the team according to competitive expectations. They are computed showing average expected points result if every team in MLS played every team both home and away.

SEBA has the Union declining to No. 11 from No. 8. MLSSoccer.com has Philadelphia declining to No. 13.  Soccer America has them remaining at No. 17.  SI, only including playoff teams now, has the Union dead last at No. 12.

Playoffs probability and more

The Union declined again from 2.9% last week to 2.5% in their odds of capturing the MLS Cup giving them the worst odds of playoff teams in winning the whole thing.

Philadelphia’s probability of qualifying for the CONCACAF Champions League has also declined to 2.5% from 2.9%.

As you can also see, 4 of the 5 (typically but not guaranteed) MLS slots have been accounted for already.  NYRB won the Eastern conference in the regular season.  Toronto won the Canadian Championship.  FC Dallas won both the Supporters’ Shield and the US Open Cup, thereby allowing the next best regular season finisher, Colorado, to automatically get one of those slots as an alternate.  The last slot is determined by the MLS Cup, but NYCFC, being the next best regular season finisher does not need to win the MLS Cup themselves to qualify, as a win by any of the aforementioned teams will lock them into an alternate slot and into the confederation tournament.

Philadelphia finishing

The following shows the probability of various playoff categories and Philadelphia’s probability of each of them.

The charts below show the average results of all the simulations and the probabilities associated with all of the above. The chart is broken up into two parts in order to better fit on your screen.

(Note: CCLAlternate refers to qualifying for CONCACAF Champions League non-traditionally. U.S. teams qualify by winning the MLS Cup, winning the Supporters’ Shield, winning the Conference in the regular season, and by winning the U.S. Open Cup. If a Canadian team wins any of these or a U.S. team wins more than one, the extra slots are filled by top regular season performers. Also, “regSeasConfWin” refers to finishing the conference in first place AND not winning other CCL slots like MLS Cup, Supporters’ Shield, and USOC)

Changes Over Time

This chart shows how Philadelphia’s chances at each of the outcomes has evolved over the course of the season.

This shows the evolution of Philadelphia’s movement within SEBA and other media outlets’ power rankings.

This shows the MLS Eastern Conference’s power rankings’ evolution in SEBA throughout the season.