SEBA Projections

Updated SEBA Projections through October 16

Welcome to the Statistical Extrapolation Bayesian Analyzer Projection System, which is, of course, a tortured gathering of words used to form the SEBA Projection System.

The system consists of a model projecting the probabilities of game results and then a barrage of simulations which account for the remaining luck. So the probabilities you see below show, essentially, what the odds are of an outcome if the team continues to play like it has been.

Below are the current season forecasts using data from games through October 16, 2016.

Power Rankings

The “Power Rankings” we concoct are the actual “strength” of the team according to competitive expectations. They are computed showing average expected points result if every team in MLS played every team both home and away.

SEBA has the Union declining to No. 8 from No. 7. ESPN has Philadelphia declining to No. 12. SI, drops them to No. 14. Soccer America has them declining to No. 17.


Playoffs probability and more

The following charts show the probabilities for making the playoffs, winning the Supporters’ Shield, winning the MLS Cup, winning the USOC Cup, and qualification for CONCACAF Champions League.

The Union probability of making the playoffs increased to 100%, no thanks to themselves. While not technically 100%, the chances the Philly will lose, New England will win, and that New England will pick up a 12 GD deficit (which then simply brings them to another tiebreaker) is so unlikely that it did not occur in any of SEBA’s 15,000 simulations.


The Union will definitely be playing on the road in the first playoff round. Their opponent can only be Toronto, DC, or NYCFC with Toronto being more than twice as likely as the others. If the Union win on Sunday, they have a decent shot at heading to DC, which according to SEBA, would give the Union their best odds of advancing. If Philadelphia fails to win against NYRB then they can only face Toronto or NYCFC and are nearly three times as likely to face Toronto as New York.


Philadelphia has no chance at the Supporters’ Shield.


The Union declined from 3.6% last week to 2.9% in their odds of capturing the MLS Cup. Being in the Eastern Conference has its benefits as being an easier conference makes it more likely to win than in the West when adjusting for ability.


Philadelphia’s probability of qualifying for the CONCACAF Champions League has declined to 2.9% from 3.6%.


Philadelphia finishing

The following shows the probability of various playoff categories and Philadelphia’s probability of each of them.


The following is a “density” chart showing the relative probability of Philadelphia finishing at the different after-playoffs rankings from 1 to 20.


The following is the list of Philadelphia’s remaining scheduled matches accompanied by result probabilities as predicted by SEBA.


The charts below show the average results of all the simulations and the probabilities associated with all of the above. The chart is broken up into two parts in order to better fit on your screen.

(Note: CCLAlternate refers to qualifying for CONCACAF Champions League non-traditionally. U.S. teams qualify by winning the MLS Cup, winning the Supporters’ Shield, winning the Conference in the regular season, and by winning the U.S. Open Cup. If a Canadian team wins any of these or a U.S. team wins more than one, the extra slots are filled by top regular season performers. Also, “regSeasConfWin” refers to finishing the conference in first place AND not winning other CCL slots like MLS Cup, Supporters’ Shield, and USOC)


Changes Over Time

This chart shows how Philadelphia’s chances at each of the outcomes has evolved over the course of the season.


This shows the evolution of Philadelphia’s movement within SEBA and other media outlets’ power rankings.


This shows the MLS Eastern Conference’s power rankings’ evolution in SEBA throughout the season.


USL Projections


One Comment

  1. Thanks, I love graphs.

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