SEBA Projections

Updated SEBA Projections through September 25

Welcome to the Statistical Extrapolation Bayesian Analyzer Projection System, which is, of course, a tortured gathering of words used to form the SEBA Projection System.

The system consists of a model projecting the probabilities of game results and then a barrage of simulations which account for the remaining luck. So the probabilities you see below show, essentially, what the odds are of an outcome if the team continues to play like it has been.

Below are the current season forecasts using data from games through September 25, 2016.

Power Rankings

The “Power Rankings” we concoct are the actual “strength” of the team according to competitive expectations. They are computed showing average expected points result if every team in MLS played every team both home and away.

SEBA has the Union declining to No. 7 from No. 6. At SI, they remained at No. 9. ESPN has the Union rising to No. 6 from No. 8. Soccer America improves them one spot to No. 12. MLSSoccer has Philadelphia remaining at No. 8.

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Playoffs probability and more

The following charts show the probabilities for making the playoffs, winning the Supporters’ Shield, winning the MLS Cup, winning the USOC Cup, and qualification for CONCACAF Champions League.

The Union improved slightly to 99.7% from 98.6% last week in their probability of making the playoffs.

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Philadelphia has no chance at the Supporters’ Shield.

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The Union decreased from 5.4% last week to 5.1% in their odds of capturing MLS Cup.

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Philadelphia’s probability of qualifying for the CONCACAF Champions League has declined to 6.6% from 8.4%.

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Philadelphia finishing

The following shows the probability of various playoff categories and Philadelphia’s probability of each of them.

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The following is a “density” chart showing the relative probability of Philadelphia finishing at the different after-playoffs rankings from 1 to 20.

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The following is the list of Philadelphia’s remaining scheduled matches accompanied by result probabilities as predicted by SEBA.

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The charts below show the average results of all the simulations and the probabilities associated with all of the above. The chart is broken up into two parts in order to better fit on your screen.

(Note: CCLAlternate refers to qualifying for CONCACAF Champions League non-traditionally. U.S. teams qualify by winning the MLS Cup, winning the Supporters’ Shield, winning the Conference in the regular season, and by winning the U.S. Open Cup. If a Canadian team wins any of these or a U.S. team wins more than one, the extra slots are filled by top regular season performers. Also, “regSeasConfWin” refers to finishing the conference in first place AND not winning other CCL slots like MLS Cup, Supporters’ Shield, and USOC)

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Changes Over Time

This chart shows how Philadelphia’s chances at each of the outcomes has evolved over the course of the season.

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This shows the evolution of Philadelphia’s movement within SEBA and other media outlets’ power rankings.

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This shows the MLS Eastern Conference’s power rankings’ evolution in SEBA throughout the season.

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Records

This shows the odds of breaking MLS single-season records, not of holding them. If more than one team could break the same record this season, they would both be represented below.

(Philadelphia did not break any single-season records in any of the 15,000 simulations.)

The following table shows all single-season records that had a record broken in at least one simulation. However, it limits the records to show only the most probable team for breaking each record.

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USL Projections

Bethlehem remained at 25th and the Harrisburg City Islanders improved to 22nd from 24th. USLSoccer.com‘s top 10 rankings do not include either team.

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Changes over time

Below shows the evolution of SEBA’s power rankings for Bethlehem Steel FC and the Harrisburg City Islanders.

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Below shows SEBA’s power rankings evolution for the USL East over the course of the season

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NWSL Projections

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