Photo: Paul Rudderow

Who: Philadelphia Union at Chicago Fire
What: Regular season game
Where: Toyota Park
When: Saturday, April 2 at 5 pm
Watch: TCN, MLS Live, Direct Kick
Whistle: Silviu Petrescu; Linesmen: Phil Briere, Gianni Facchini; Fourth Official: Kevin Terry Jr.

Philadelphia Union travel to Chicago aiming for three wins in a row. After beating two teams that want the ball, the Union face a different challenge in Veljko Paunovic’s Fire. And after giving up three goals in the first half they played this season, the former Union man’s young squad has only allowed one in their last five halves. This is no fluke: The Fire, using an innovative 3-5-2, have closed up shop in a sustainable way. Unfortunately, their offensive effectiveness makes the 76ers look dangerous. 

In contrast, the Union have had no trouble pouring in the goals, but the last counterattacking team they faced stomped them into the Frisco turf. To be clear, the Fire are not on Dallas’ level, but they aim to do many of the same things as the Western Conference champs going forward. Make no mistake: Philly is the better team. But the Fire are also vastly improved since last season.

In reality, the CBs are far closer and Polster drops deeper to protect. But the wingbacks really do want to get that high.

Campbell and company

Paunovic has introduced a modern 3-5-2 system that can flexibly become a 5-3-2 or a 3-4-1-2. Ironically, the Fire drafted the highest rated left back in a generation and… deployed him as an Italian wingback. The aim of the three-man backline is to use the wide backs to create numerical advantages at each line moving forward. With the ball, the wingbacks move far up the pitch, much higher than traditional fullbacks but just as wide.

Rookie Jonathan Campbell plays in the middle of the back three and moves the ball to one side where Joao Meira and Johan Kappelhof advance towards the midfield. The goal is to push past the striker line and pull a midfielder to the ball so the opposition is left with four defending five. Furthermore, using two strikers means one can run behind the fullbacks when they step to the Fire’s wingbacks with a target man remaining in the middle.

It has worked so well defensively because Campbell has proved an increasingly confident organizer and Meira and Kappelhof have been mobile enough to cover for the fullbacks. One of the interesting benefits of a three-man defense is that it keeps the central player — in this case, Campbell — right smack in the center of the pitch.

Chicago shots conceded. Not a lot from good positions (top: NYC 2nd half, center: Orlando City, bottom: Columbus)

This makes it very difficult to attack Chicago up the middle, and extremely difficult to create shooting opportunities directly at goal. Columbus found early success by pulling Kappelhof (playing to Campbell’s left) wide and running into the channel he left behind (see gif below). However, this success was tempered by the Crew’s inability to figure out what to do in the box. They were in close, but often at tight angles. And the Fire’s defense dropped quickly so they were not retreating and chaotic enough for Kei Kamara to sneak into space.

So there are holes to be attacked, but Chicago has started loose and become more structured in each of their first three matches. Sure, they have done it by sacrificing the linking player to their strikers (Goossens drops deep to clog the middle), but it is clear they are improving their defensive chemistry with each match. Surrounding Matt Polster with a pair of energetic ball hounds and the second year man is able to sit in something of a safety role that allows him to read and disrupt plays. Polster is very, very good at this.

Trouble going forward

However, Polster, along with Vincent, are still struggling with the nuances of how to attack in this new system. To be fair to the US U-23 man, his compatriots in the center have not made things easy. Against Columbus, Arturo Alvarez and John Goossens checked short and square far too often, making it easy for the Crew to cut passing lanes to the strikers. The two mids playing in front of Polster need to be moving in order to open the tollbridge to the front men.

But the bigger issue is that the Fire midfielders still play like a traditional three-man midfield. They like short passes, find a wide player when they need an outlet, then check short and collect the ball. And that does not seem like the best way to use Chicago’s shape.

Chicago successful (green) and unsuccessful (red) dribbles vs Columbus. Ramos got into some tight quarters on the right. Vincent didn’t get far enough up the pitch to receive the ball.

The 3-5-2 that Paunovic seems to favor is reminiscent of Antonio Conte’s Juventus and Italy sides in all but how they start attacks. Italy lets the center backs attack a defense through the channels or plays long, crossfield passes to the wingbacks who advance the ball quickly and pull a defensive line apart. Chicago, in contrast, plays the ball slowly as they advance up the pitch. Furthermore, they seem to favor quick give-and-goes between midfielders and wingbacks in the middle third, long before the wingback is asking questions of the opposing fullback. The result is a team that spends a lot of time trapped against the touchline and very little time in the final third.

Paunovic’s next big challenge is figuring out how to add offensive spark to defensive solidity. And solving this dilemma means he has likely focused on two areas of the pitch in the leadup to the Union match: The strikers and the left flank.

These are not the strikers you are looking for

David Accam is very, very fast. But that downplays a less tangible skill that separates him from a guy like Dom Oduro. Accam is a sneaky runner, and for a guy playing on a team without much creativity, he does an incredible job of finding his own space.

Luckily for the Union, Accam is unlikely to be healthy enough to go the full ninety on Saturday. In their talisman’s stead, the Fire will rely on Gilberto and Kennedy Igboananike, two guys who rarely end up sharing a sentence with the word ‘rely’ unless they also share it with ‘don’t’.

Both Chicago strikers can be potent in good areas, but neither has shown the ability to create their own opportunities or pull a defense out of position. This is particularly disturbing in Igboananike’s case. The Nigerian front man has many qualities of a solid MLS striker, but simply cannot create separation because he reacts to play rather than dictating it by moving into channels and checking deep to move defenders around. As a result, Igboananike has been a very poor man’s David Accam during his short stay in Chicago: A speedster who relies on a tired or error-prone defense for his lunch.

Gilberto is a more interesting case because he can add a creative spark when he gets on the ball. Thus far, however, the Fire have not been able to hold the ball in the final third for any length of time that would allow the Brazilian to camp in good spots and play in runners. These situations bring out Gilberto’s best, while running the channels is something he does mostly in reaction to play, not in advance of it.

Against the Union, Chicago needs to create big gaps between the fullbacks and central defenders if they want to get the most out of their strikers. This means forcing the Union’s fullbacks to step to the Fire’s wingbacks so Igboananike and Gilberto can provide outlets into the corners and bring the rest of the squad forward with them. Concurrently, this should open space in the center for John Goossens, who has been a linking player in name only through three matches.

That fullback plays wingback like… a fullback

On the left, Paunovic is still working with the talented but raw Brandon Vincent on wingback positioning. Vincent can get forward as a fullback, but he is not the flying-up-the-flank type. And that conservatism has been amplified as he learns how to interpret the wingback role while adjusting to the speed of MLS. Vincent’s progress can be contrasted with Rodrigo Ramos on the right. Every time Chicago controls the ball in back, Ramos is immediately even with, if not above, the midfield line, pinning the opposition winger back to give Meira space to advance the ball.

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Kappelhof (4) has to make passes from a deeper, more central position than Meara (66) because Vincent on the left often stays deeper than Ramos on the right.

Vincent, in contrast, stays a bit behind the midfield line, or moves up to it as Kappelhof advances. When Vincent does get upfield (as you can see above), it allows Kappelhof to advance into the middle third unfettered. If Vincent is deeper, it means the defense is closer to Kappelhof as he moves forward, and if the defender plays the ball vertically into midfield, Vincent is not in position to provide an immediate outlet and move the ball into the final third, which is what the wingbacks should be doing in this system. Look for Vincent to try and establish early position high up the pitch to pin Ilsinho deep. If he doesn’t, Chicago will likely become very right-sided. Against Columbus, you can see how Kappelhof passed from a more central position than Meira because the wide defense was positioned higher up the pitch. As the Crew adjusted to the Fire’s one-sided attack, Meira was forced to play long more often, and the Fire quickly ran out of attacking ideas.

Another interesting quirk of the Fire’s offense has been the strange dedication to playing give-and-goes with the wingbacks. This is almost exactly the opposite of what you would expect a 3-5-2 to try and do. By pushing the wingback high, you force the defense to collapse on that area of the pitch, hypothetically opening up space in different areas. Yet, Chicago has been insistent upon getting the ball to the wing, inviting pressure, playing the ball centrally… then putting it right back into pressure. Meanwhile, the opposite flank is emptier than a bottle of tequila at a PSP staff party. If the Fire start to switch the ball quickly across the middle third, the Union — and the rest of the league — will face a much tougher opponent.

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Union attack

For the Union to control the match, they need to be able to play quickly in transition and keep CJ Sapong on the outside central defenders rather than Campbell. A transition that attacks the center through the flanks can be deadly against a 3-5-2 because it gets behind the wingbacks and pulls central defenders wide. Columbus moved the ball too slowly (as they did against Philly) to attack the Fire effectively in wide areas (the Crew really need to consider switching wide players for short periods of the match going forward. Finlay would’ve feasted on the space behind Ramos).

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Second, Philly needs to be patient in the final third. Once the Fire establish defensive shape, they have a line of five in the back and Polster sitting in front of a tight defensive trio in the center. Since that absurd first half against New York City, nobody has been able to effectively penetrate the middle against Chicago. Instead, the best chances come through runs between central defenders followed by low crosses or cutbacks. Traditional crosses into the box are extremely difficult to convert with all three of the Fire’s defenders in position. Either get behind the defense and attack from the wing (Ilsinho’s approach) or attack with speed and angled throughballs that put Pontius in behind Ramos.

Lineup questions

With Vincent Nogueira and Tranquillo Barnetta back in the mix, Jim Curtin has big decisions to make in his starting eleven. Brian Carroll and Warren Creavalle have been strong, but when you can call on a Swiss international and the best possession player on the roster… how do you say no?

There is, actually, a fairly good argument for keeping Philly’s top two midfielders sidelined. After traveling to Chicago, the Union have a short week before facing Orlando City in Chester, then it’s on to Seattle before three straight difficult home games. In the big picture, a draw on the road against the Fire is not a terrible outcome. And it is certainly not as bad as losing Barnetta or Nogueira for significant time because they came back too early. It may be a case of working the duo back in at home, then potentially giving them a longer rest by keeping them off the notoriously bad Seattle turf.

So the Union will likely trot out a similar lineup to the one that suffocated New England, with Barnetta potentially working in on the right or through the middle. Leaving Nogueira out is a difficult call, but Warren Creavalle’s ability to turn midfield pressure up a notch will be valuable against a Fire squad that has yet to develop a quick passing game to bypass a high press.

Difficult to say who gets dropped from the 18 with Nogueira and Barnetta back

Prediction: Union 1-0 Fire

I can easily see this being a dour, goalless draw. And it will certainly get very interesting if Chicago grabs an early goal and sits on its laurels, because the Union haven’t faced a team that sat deep and absorbed pressure yet and it’s questionable whether they can break one down. Union fans should hope to see Fabian Herbers get an extended cameo, with his smart movement potentially a huge asset against the three back system.

This is the start of a very interesting month for tactics geeks (which you must be if you’ve slogged through this article. Congrats!). Philly faces the 3-5-2 of Chicago followed by a wide open 4-3-3 from Orlando. Next, the disjointed but dangerous Seattle attack and whatever formation tactical mad scientist Patrick Viera has settled upon by late April. The month closes with the staid and steady Dom Kinnear’s Earthquakes, who will provide a challenging physical test.

So get ready, Union fans. If Philly is for real, they are entering a month of very winnable matches. If they have just been lucky so far, teams will use this extended break to find and exploit weak spots. How Jim Curtin and his squad respond to the adjustments of opponents will say a lot about their ability to stay above the playoff line for a full season.