Who: Philadelphia Union vs Colorado Rapids
What: 2015 season opener
Where: PPL Park
When: 4 pm, Saturday, March 7
Watch:  6abc, MLS Live
Whistle: Silviu Petrescu; Linesmen: Daniel Belleau, Gianni Facchini; Fourth official: Jose Carlos Rivero

If you combine the pre-August performance of the Colorado Rapids’ 2014 season with Philadelphia Union’s post-July resume, you’d be looking at a playoff team. But if you flipped and took the Union’s first half with the Rapids’ second half, your 25-point season would be propping up the impressively bad Montreal Impact.

After Philadelphia tossed away a two-goal lead to the Rapids on July 12, these teams went in completely opposite directions. The Union collected a respectable 23 points over their last 15 games (1.53ppg) while Colorado earned a grand total of — wait for it — 5 points over 17 games (0.29ppg). That is an impressive feat in the annals of failure.

But a new season brings new hope. And much like Jim Curtin in Philadelphia, Pablo Mastroeni is hoping his first winter as full-fledged head coach will provide the Rapids with the foundation for more consistent performances. In truth, the wheels only fell off in 2014 after a spate of injuries to the back line turned Colorado into MLS’s worst defensive team, and Mastroeni’s attempts to solidify his defense destroyed any attacking cohesion that was left. Twelve goals over the final 14 matches is an ugly return in and of itself, so let’s just say the goals allowed number is much, much larger.

Opposition scouting

Keep your eyes trained on the Rapids’ rebuilt back four. Drew Moor remains sidelined following last year’s ACL tear, but Shane O’Neill should be recovered from his bout with the flu and slot in next to either Bobby Burling or rookie Axel Sjoberg. Newly acquired Michael Harrington will be on the right, while the surprising deal that sent Chris Klute to Columbus means Marc Burch is likely to start the year as the default left fullback.

After reading that last paragraph, Philadelphia’s pre-Vitoria defensive situation seems downright desirable. Add to the mix that Clint Irwin was a shell of his 2013 self after returning from injury last season, and you have enough question marks to make a suit for The Riddler.

Colorado’s defensive brainteaser is bigger than simply figuring out how to fill Drew Moor’s sizable boots. The team was a tactical mess down the stretch, reaching a nadir with a 6-0 loss to the Galaxy on September 5.

The Rapids tried to address the defensive issues by bringing in new sentries to guard the gates. Marcelo Sarvas and Sam Cronin were acquired from the California coast to seek and destroy opposition playmakers, and if they both start on Saturday, the Rapids and Union will put out very similar formations. As a result, the game will likely hinge on controlling the flanks: If Vincente Sanchez and Juan Ramirez can find the same spaces that Mike Grella and Lloyd Sam enjoyed last Saturday, Philadelphia will be in for another ninety minutes of soaking up pressure.

Union tactics

The 4-4-2 that Jim Curtin deployed against New York produced an ugly victory. The Union created a few good chances, but they gave up many, many more. The glaring absence of a creative midfielder to release Sebastien Le Toux and Andrew Wenger hindered Philly’s vaunted counterattack and left Dax McCarty with plenty of space with which to look up and find his wide attacking options.

However, it is hard to blame Curtin for trying something new. After all, Conor Casey did look like a useful creative piece against Columbus, constantly freeing up Jimmy McLaughlin and Eric Ayuk to dribble at defenders. It was a worthy experiment, but one that is unlikely to spill over into the regular season for multiple reasons.

First, a true attacking midfielder is simply too valuable for the Union. Whether it be the underrated Cristian Maidana or the underutilized Zach Pfeffer, Philly needs a player to both facilitate attacks and pressure the opposition midfield. Casey may be perfectly capable of the former, but he looks like a tired puppy attempting the latter. Maidana is no defensive whiz himself, but even a modicum of pressure in the central area is enough to force deep-lying passers to play short, simple passes. New York had so much time to find Sam and Grella with long outlet passes that the Union’s fullbacks could not get tight to the wingers and ended up playing on their heels. Thus, a problem that looked like it was borne from the defense may be partially solved in midfield.

Second, the Union do not need two strikers on the pitch. Sure, it is nice to have big bodies in the box when the crosses come in, but it would be a whole lot better to just discourage those crosses in the first place. Sebastien Le Toux and Sheanon Williams can both play a fine aerial ball when they’re in the mood, but with a right-footed left flank, Philly would do better to hold off on crosses and let their front three’s movement create openings for Maidana’s deft passes. Furthermore, Vincent Nogueira’s deep aerial passes are much more useful when players are running through than when strikers are challenging for the ball with their backs to goal.

Being that it is the start of the season, however, do not expect any formation to suddenly turn Philly into a team that values possession. All the midfield skill in the world cannot change the fact that the Union are built to go vertical. The trick, then, will be to match that swift attack with a compact defense that forces teams to settle for crosses.

Sheanon Williams and Ray Gaddis are often as athletic as the wingers they face, but a disciplined approach may be more useful than the aggressive stance the starting fullbacks often adopt. Ethan White and Steven Vitoria are serviceable but flawed central defenders, and asking them to play facing their own goal is far from the best use of their talents. Bradley Wright-Phillips was well-aware that White is uncomfortable when a striker gets tight to him and rolls off, often resorting to a physical approach that plays into the hands of an intelligent attacker. Though Deshorn Brown is still learning how to manipulate defenders, any time spent in the film room will tell him and the Colorado coaching staff that pinning a striker on White makes a mess of the Union’s defensive spacing and leaves Sheanon Williams on an island.

Keep an eye on…

In basketball, teams will may set up multiple screens and cuts on a single play just to find one good matchup to exploit. The size of a soccer field means it’s a lot tougher to pick your matchups, but it is still possible to stack the deck in favor of your skill players. This is essentially what people mean when they talk about good spacing, since the outcome of good spacing is often an attacking player with skill running at an isolated defender, or a creative player with time to look up and pick his pass.

Saturday’s starting XI should look like this.

On Saturday, the key space will be on the wing between the center circle and each team’s box. If the wingers find the ball in those areas with enough time to look up and either attack a defender or pick out a runner, the chances will come at breakneck speed. If either team can successfully pressure the other’s deep-lying midfielders, it will allow the defense to step up and play tighter on the wings.

Prediction: Union 3-1 Rapids

The fun part about this Union side is that we have a pretty good sense of how they will play. Unlike last year when it was unclear how all the new pieces would fit together, Philly’s only major acquisitions were made to slot into specific holes in Jim Curtin’s first eleven. Before fatigue knocked the legs out from under their playoff run, this Union side looked like they could threaten almost anybody, even with a knackered Conor Casey as the only real option up front.

With rest and a full preseason practicing a clearly defined tactical approach, Philadelphia should be able to deliver the lightning quick attacks that energized their 2014 season. And against a wobbly Colorado defense, that should be enough to start the season on the right track.

MacMath returns to Philly

Hi Zac!