SEBA Projections

MLS, USL, and NWSL projections through August 5

Below are the 2018 MLS season forecasts using data from games through August 5.

Some key points up front:

  • Union playoff chances: The Union now have a 51.1% chance of making the MLS playoffs, down from 56.2%.
  • Bethlehem playoff chances: The Steel have a 40.0% chance to make the USL playoffs, up from 26.2%.
  • Largest movers: San Jose gained the biggest boost in performance expectations for MLS in the past week, and FC Dallas had the largest drop.
  • Plus/minus: The two top players in the league, in terms of their teams’ goal differentials when they’re on the field, are the New York Red Bulls’ Bradley Wright-Phillips and Atlanta United’s Michael Parkhurst. The top Philadelphia players for this stat are Cory Burke and Jay Simpson.
Interactive Charts

MLS forecasts

MLS forecasts over time

USL forecasts

USL forecasts over time

NWSL forecasts

NWSL forecasts over time

Philadelphia Updated Stats

This following chart shows the Union’s 2018 stats, as compared with typical winning and losing teams.

This following chart shows the Union’s stats in recent MLS matches, as compared with typical winning and losing teams.

Power Rankings

The scores used for these rankings are the expected points-per-game for all league opponents both home and away.

SEBA has Philadelphia decreasing from 12th to 13th.

Currently, Philadelphia’s performance expectation is set by the following distribution of minutes:

Philadelphia +/- for 2018

Philadelphia Plus/Minus

plyrNetGoalsPlusGoalsMinusGoalsMINSNetGoalsPer90PlusGoalsPer90MinusGoalsPer90
Cory Burke9281912920.6271.951.324
Alejandro Bedoya7474025970.2431.6291.386
Mark McKenzie6292314490.3731.8011.429
Raymon Gaddis6423621180.2551.7851.53
Keegan Rosenberry5454026150.1721.5491.377
Jay Simpson4401352.6672.6670
Haris Medunjanin4403623500.1531.5321.379
John McCarthy22090220
Borek Dockal2363422170.0811.4611.38
Auston Trusty2484628800.0621.51.438
Olivier Mbaizo110851.0591.0590
Derrick Jones1543850.2341.1690.935
Fafa Picault1393820190.0451.7381.694
Andre Blake04646279001.4841.484
Warren Creavalle0111168101.4541.454
Marcus Epps0101060901.4781.478
Anthony Fontana-11299-0.9090.9091.818
Ilsinho-21315913-0.1971.2811.479
Fabinho-3710692-0.390.911.301
Fabian Herbers-347428-0.6310.8411.472
CJ Sapong-430342182-0.1651.2371.402
David Accam-417211213-0.2971.2611.558
Matthew Real-415236-1.5250.3811.907
Jack Elliott-518231430-0.3151.1331.448
Shows the goal differential for each player while they were on the field

 

MLS +/- for 2018
TeamplyrNetGoalsPlusGoalsMinusGoalsMINSNetGoalsPer90PlusGoalsPer90MinusGoalsPer90
Atlanta UnitedMichael Parkhurst30653527230.9922.1481.157
Atlanta UnitedBrad Guzan29653627340.9552.141.185
New York Red BullsTim Parker28512324301.0371.8890.852
New York Red BullsBradley Wright-Phillips27512423571.0311.9470.916
Atlanta UnitedJosef Martinez27623527180.8942.0531.159
Atlanta UnitedMiguel Almiron27643727600.882.0871.207
Atlanta UnitedJulian Gressel27643727650.8792.0831.204
Los Angeles FCSteven Beitashour26593324640.952.1551.205
New York Red BullsLuis Robles26563026100.8971.9311.034
New York Red BullsTyler Adams25462121491.0471.9260.879
New York Red BullsSean Davis25502523990.9381.8760.938
Atlanta UnitedLeandro Gonzalez Pirez24613725950.8322.1161.283
Los Angeles FCLee Nguyen22401816521.1992.1790.981
Atlanta UnitedHector Villalba22432117401.1382.2241.086
New York Red BullsKemar Lawrence22482623480.8431.840.997
New York Red BullsAaron Long22523026260.7541.7821.028
New York Red BullsMichael Murillo21391817551.07720.923
Sporting Kansas CityMatt Besler20492924750.7271.7821.055
Atlanta UnitedDarlington Nagbe19412217900.9552.0611.106
Atlanta UnitedJeff Larentowicz19573827040.6321.8971.265
Los Angeles FCTyler Miller19654627900.6132.0971.484
Los Angeles FCJordan Harvey18442619600.8272.021.194
Seattle SoundersNicolás Lodeiro18432522490.721.7211
Sporting Kansas CityRoger Espinoza18523425550.6341.8321.198
Sporting Kansas CityGraham Zusi18563827900.5811.8061.226
Sporting Kansas CityIlie Sanchez18563827900.5811.8061.226
Sporting Kansas CityTim Melia18563827900.5811.8061.226
Atlanta UnitedChris McCann17422516820.912.2471.338
Seattle SoundersChad Marshall17442723140.6611.7111.05
Atlanta UnitedFranco Escobar16382216080.8962.1271.231
New York Red BullsAlejandro Romero Gamarra16442822460.6411.7631.122
FC DallasMichael Barrios16432723570.6111.6421.031
New York Red BullsAlex Muyl15251011241.2012.0020.801
Atlanta UnitedEzequiel Barco15341915750.8571.9431.086
New York CityJesus Medina15432818240.742.1221.382
Los Angeles FCWalker Zimmerman15503521410.6312.1021.471
Portland TimbersDiego Chara15463122950.5881.8041.216
New York CityMaximiliano Moralez15543927500.4911.7671.276
New York Red BullsFlorian Valot14271311501.0962.1131.017
Sporting Kansas CityKhiry Shelton14251111581.0881.9430.855
Seattle SoundersOsvaldo Alonso14311715620.8071.7860.98
Los Angeles FCLatif Blessing14412717420.7232.1181.395
Seattle SoundersKim Kee-hee14362219280.6541.681.027
Sporting Kansas CityDániel Sallói14412720220.6231.8251.202
Los Angeles FCCarlos Vela14473321980.5731.9241.351
Houston DynamoAlberth Elis14463222420.5621.8471.285
New York CityAlexander Callens14513725700.491.7861.296
Los Angeles FCBenny Feilhaber14604626700.4722.0221.551
Atlanta UnitedMikey Ambrose131967311.6012.3390.739
Seattle SoundersRaúl Ruidíaz132189181.2752.0590.784
New York CityYangel Herrera13261310031.1672.3331.167
DC UnitedWayne Rooney13311813710.8532.0351.182
Los Angeles FCDiego Rossi13534024260.4821.9661.484
New York CitySean Johnson13503727000.4331.6671.233
Seattle SoundersStefan Frei13433027000.4331.4331
Seattle SoundersCristian Roldan13453227830.421.4551.035
Sporting Kansas CityJimmy Medranda121977281.4842.3490.865
DC UnitedBill Hamid1223119901.0912.0911
DC UnitedRussell Canouse12281612630.8551.9951.14
Seattle SoundersGustav Svensson12322018960.571.5190.949
Los Angeles FCLaurent Ciman12443219800.54521.455
New York Red BullsDaniel Royer12372520390.531.6331.103
Sporting Kansas CityIke Opara12473525030.4311.691.258
FC DallasReggie Cannon12493727410.3941.6091.215
Los Angeles FCAaron Kovar111654632.1383.110.972
Atlanta UnitedKevin Kratz1119849523.4551.455
Sporting Kansas CitySeth Sinovic11271614090.7031.7251.022
Sporting Kansas CityGerso Fernandes11322115260.6491.8871.239
Seattle SoundersKelvin Leerdam11291817260.5741.5120.939
New York CityEbenezer Ofori11352418300.5411.7211.18
FC DallasReto Ziegler11423124110.4111.5681.157
New York CityAlexander Ring11453424280.4081.6681.26
FC DallasMaximiliano Urruti11463525600.3871.6171.23
FC DallasMatt Hedges11483727450.3611.5741.213
FC DallasMauro Diaz101998071.1152.1191.004
FC DallasCarlos Gruezo10413123280.3871.5851.198
New York CityAnton Tinnerholm10463625170.3581.6451.287
Los Angeles FCAdama Diomande9281910830.7482.3271.579
Seattle SoundersHarry Shipp9251612300.6591.8291.171
Philadelphia UnionCory Burke9281912920.6271.951.324
New York CityIsmael Tajouri-Shradi9302115150.5351.7821.248
Portland TimbersAndy Polo9281915190.5331.6591.126
Seattle SoundersNouhou Tolo9281917810.4551.4150.96
Houston DynamoRomell Quioto9393020760.391.6911.301
DC UnitedJoseph Mora9463722530.361.8381.478
Portland TimbersZarek Valentin9483926320.3081.6411.334
Portland TimbersDiego Valeri9483926570.3051.6261.321
Seattle SoundersVíctor Rodríguez819119910.7271.7260.999
Real Salt LakeNick Besler8322413410.5372.1481.611
Houston DynamoEric Alexander8332516620.4331.7871.354
FC DallasRoland Lamah8312317680.4071.5781.171
DC UnitedPaul Arriola8423420030.3591.8871.528
Toronto FCGregory van der Wiel8494121150.342.0851.745
DC UnitedLuciano Acosta8514324830.291.8491.559
New York CityRodney Wallace71258060.7821.340.558
New York Red BullsDerrick Etienne Jr.719128410.7492.0331.284
Atlanta UnitedEric Remedi721149130.692.071.38
Real Salt LakeAaron Herrera7231610740.5871.9271.341
Toronto FCAuro7282112440.5062.0261.519
New York Red BullsMarc Rzatkowski7261914520.4341.6121.178
FC DallasSantiago Mosquera7272014730.4281.651.222
New York CityMaxime Chanot7261914830.4251.5781.153
New York CitySebastien Ibeagha7322516270.3871.771.383
Los Angeles GalaxyRomain Alessandrini7413417420.3622.1181.757
Portland TimbersJeff Attinella7282118540.341.3591.019
Los Angeles GalaxyZlatan Ibrahimovic7494219630.3212.2471.926
FC DallasVictor Ulloa7332619940.3161.4891.174
Sporting Kansas CityJohnny Russell7352820030.3151.5731.258
Portland TimbersSebastian Blanco7443724590.2561.611.354
Philadelphia UnionAlejandro Bedoya7474025970.2431.6291.386
Portland TimbersLarrys Mabiala7484126550.2371.6271.39
DC UnitedSteve Birnbaum7564927900.2261.8061.581
New York CityJonathan Lewis6822192.4663.2880.822
Los Angeles FCDanilo Silva61265420.9961.9930.996
Sporting Kansas CityDiego Rubio618127250.7452.2341.49
FC DallasJimmy Maurer6221611700.4621.6921.231
New York CityRonald Matarrita6241811870.4551.821.365
DC UnitedJunior Moreno6282213480.4011.8691.469
New England RevolutionKelyn Rowe6272114380.3761.691.314
Philadelphia UnionMark McKenzie6292314490.3731.8011.429
FC DallasJesse Gonzalez6292317100.3161.5261.211
Los Angeles GalaxyJonathan dos Santos6393317290.3122.031.718
Philadelphia UnionRaymon Gaddis6423621180.2551.7851.53
Los Angeles GalaxyDave Romney6504421740.2482.071.822
DC UnitedYamil Asad6443821790.2481.8171.57
Toronto FCSebastian Giovinco6514522040.2452.0831.838
Sporting Kansas CityCristian Lobato5833271.3762.2020.826
New York Red BullsKyle Duncan51053531.2752.551.275
FC DallasKellyn Acosta516116740.6682.1361.469
FC DallasAnton Nedyalkov515107700.5841.7531.169
DC UnitedKofi Opare516118630.5211.6691.147
Real Salt LakeDanilo Acosta518138960.5021.8081.306
Los Angeles FCEduard Atuesta5302514270.3151.8921.577
Los Angeles GalaxyChris Pontius5353014860.3032.121.817
New York CityDavid Villa5282315740.2861.6011.315
Los Angeles FCMark-Anthony Kaye5342915820.2841.9341.65
Houston DynamoAlejandro Fuenmayor5322715830.2841.8191.535
Los Angeles GalaxyMichael Ciani5393416490.2732.1291.856
Seattle SoundersWill Bruin5272217020.2641.4281.163
Toronto FCAlexander Bono5464121600.2081.9171.708
Philadelphia UnionKeegan Rosenberry5454026150.1721.5491.377
New York Red BullsBen Mines44090440
Philadelphia UnionJay Simpson4401352.6672.6670
MinnesotaRomario Ibarra4622211.6292.4430.814
Sporting Kansas CityKrisztián Németh4733850.9351.6360.701
Chicago FireDjordje Mihailovic4954390.821.8451.025
FC DallasDominique Badji41284890.7362.2091.472
Montreal ImpactMicheal Azira41395430.6632.1551.492
Portland TimbersJorge Villafaña41285640.6381.9151.277
Columbus CrewRicardo Clark41176430.561.540.98
Toronto FCChris Mavinga415117550.4771.7881.311
Seattle SoundersJordy Delem41177640.4711.2960.825
FC DallasRyan Hollingshead416127670.4691.8771.408
Los Angeles GalaxyGiovani dos Santos422188090.4452.4472.002
Columbus CrewCristian Martinez41068400.4291.0710.643
Sporting Kansas CityFelipe Gutiérrez4252113430.2681.6751.407
Toronto FCVíctor Vázquez4332914400.252.0621.813
Sporting Kansas CityYohan Croizet4282415050.2391.6741.435
Houston DynamoAdolfo Machado4332916960.2121.7511.539
New York CityBen Sweat4353121070.1711.4951.324
Philadelphia UnionHaris Medunjanin4403623500.1531.5321.379
Toronto FCJonathan Osorio4524824290.1481.9271.779
Atlanta UnitedAndrew Carleton341932.9033.8710.968
Columbus CrewAlex Crognale341972.7843.7110.928
Los Angeles GalaxySheanon Williams3301312.0612.0610
New York Red BullsBrian White3412161.251.6670.417
Los Angeles FCChristian Ramirez3522611.0341.7240.69
Los Angeles GalaxyBradford Jamieson IV31182710.9963.6532.657
New York CitySaad Abdul-Salaam3632730.9891.9780.989
Sporting Kansas CityEmiliano Amor31073320.8132.7111.898
New York Red BullsVincent Bezecourt31073950.6842.2781.595
Seattle SoundersBrad Smith3854460.6051.6141.009
Toronto FCLucas Janson31295480.4931.9711.478
Houston DynamoPhilippe Senderos315126060.4462.2281.782
Montreal ImpactBacary Sagna314116300.42921.571
Portland TimbersLiam Ridgewell315129950.2711.3571.085
New York Red BullsConnor Lade3201712250.221.4691.249
Portland TimbersCristhian Paredes3221913430.2011.4741.273
Vancouver WhitecapsRussell Teibert3292614030.1921.861.668
Portland TimbersSamuel Armenteros3252215240.1771.4761.299
Houston DynamoAndrew Wenger3343117100.1581.7891.632
DC UnitedOniel Fisher3353218320.1471.7191.572
Portland TimbersAlvas Powell3343119820.1361.5441.408
Houston DynamoDaMarcus Beasley3434020600.1311.8791.748
Columbus CrewJonathan Mensah3322922570.121.2761.156
Montreal ImpactIgnacio Piatti3454226410.1021.5341.431
Toronto FCAyo Akinola220247.57.50
DC UnitedKevin Ellis231463.9135.871.957
Portland TimbersLucas Melano231583.1034.6551.552
DC UnitedBruno Miranda231862.0933.141.047
Philadelphia UnionJohn McCarthy22090220
Columbus CrewEdward Opoku2421261.4292.8571.429
Sporting Kansas CityGianluca Busio2311261.4292.1430.714
Colorado RapidsCole Bassett2201331.3531.3530
Atlanta UnitedGeorge Bello2421771.0172.0341.017
New York Red BullsAndreas Ivan2421771.0172.0341.017
Los Angeles FCOmar Gaber2532540.7091.7721.063
New York Red BullsCarlos Rivas2752640.6822.3861.705
Columbus CrewPatrick Mullins2972680.6723.0222.351
San Jose EarthquakesQuincy Amarikwa2532680.6721.6791.007
Houston DynamoJuan David Cabezas2862900.6212.4831.862
Sporting Kansas CityWan Kuzain Wan Kamal2643070.5861.7591.173
New York Red BullsAurélien Collin21083530.512.552.04
New York Red BullsFidel Escobar2643570.5041.5131.008
New York CityThomas McNamara2753700.4861.7031.216
Chicago FireMichael de Leeuw2863900.4621.8461.385
Portland TimbersSteve Clark213114860.372.4072.037
Montreal ImpactQuincy Amarikwa21084990.3611.8041.443
FC DallasCristian Colman21086060.2971.4851.188
Vancouver WhitecapsAaron Maund216148100.2221.7781.556
Los Angeles GalaxyEmmanuel Boateng2232110210.1762.0271.851
Los Angeles FCDejan Jakovic2262411480.1572.0381.882
Vancouver WhitecapsCristian Techera2252313250.1361.6981.562
New England RevolutionScott Caldwell2201814790.1221.2171.095
Vancouver WhitecapsYordy Reyna2373517360.1041.9181.815
Philadelphia UnionBorek Dockal2363422170.0811.4611.38
Houston DynamoJoe Willis2424022500.081.681.6
Houston DynamoMauro Manotas2494724530.0731.7981.724
New England RevolutionJalil Anibaba2454326160.0691.5481.479
Philadelphia UnionAuston Trusty2484628800.0621.51.438
Colorado RapidsStefan Aigner110118.1828.1820
Montreal ImpactDavid Choiniere110127.57.50
San Jose EarthquakesEric Calvillo110165.6255.6250
Los Angeles FCJoshua Pérez110224.0914.0910
Columbus CrewConnor Maloney110283.2143.2140
San Jose EarthquakesDominic Oduro12130363
New England RevolutionIsaac Angking110372.4322.4320
Columbus CrewAdam Jahn110681.3241.3240
Chicago FireJon Bakero121751.22.41.2
Los Angeles GalaxyJoão Pedro132851.0593.1762.118
Philadelphia UnionOlivier Mbaizo110851.0591.0590
Atlanta UnitedBrandon Vazquez132861.0473.142.093
Atlanta UnitedAlec Kann12190121
Sporting Kansas CityAndreu Fontas11090110
New York Red BullsEthan Kutler1211010.8911.7820.891
Real Salt LakeAndrew Putna1211350.6671.3330.667
Los Angeles GalaxyEmrah Klimenta1101570.5730.5730
New York CityBrad Stuver1541800.52.52
Atlanta UnitedRomario Williams1651910.4712.8272.356
FC DallasPablo Aranguiz1212450.3670.7350.367
New York Red BullsRyan Meara1432700.3331.3331
Atlanta UnitedMiles Robinson1872730.332.6372.308
New York CityValentin Castellanos1543680.2451.2230.978
Philadelphia UnionDerrick Jones1543850.2341.1690.935
Columbus CrewJon Kempin1984500.21.81.6
FC DallasTesho Akindele1985690.1581.4241.265
FC DallasMarquinhos Pedroso117169900.0911.5451.455
Los Angeles FCMarco Ureña1232210020.092.0661.976
FC DallasMaynor Figueroa1171610080.0891.5181.429
Montreal ImpactMatteo Mancosu1171611020.0821.3881.307
DC UnitedUlises Segura1212011090.0811.7041.623
New England RevolutionClaude Dielna1242313340.0671.6191.552
Real Salt LakeCorey Baird1333217940.051.6561.605
Philadelphia UnionFafa Picault1393820190.0451.7381.694
Houston DynamoTomás Martínez1444322750.041.7411.701
Los Angeles GalaxyDavid Bingham1616028800.0311.9061.875
Toronto FCMichael Bradley05353258701.8441.844
Real Salt LakeJefferson Savarino05050276301.6291.629
Philadelphia UnionAndre Blake04646279001.4841.484
Toronto FCMarky Delgado04040181001.9891.989
DC UnitedFrederic Brillant03838191101.791.79
Columbus CrewArtur03737260401.2791.279
DC UnitedZoltan Stieber03434175901.741.74
Columbus CrewFederico Higuain02727221601.0971.097
DC UnitedDarren Mattocks02727126701.9181.918
Montreal ImpactChris Duvall02020119501.5061.506
Portland TimbersAndres Flores02020106901.6841.684
New England RevolutionGabriel Somi01818104201.5551.555
Vancouver WhitecapsSean Franklin0131383301.4051.405
Colorado RapidsShkëlzen Gashi0111167601.4641.464
Philadelphia UnionWarren Creavalle0111168101.4541.454
Philadelphia UnionMarcus Epps0101060901.4781.478
Vancouver WhitecapsBrett Levis0101070301.281.28
Houston DynamoChris Seitz09954001.51.5
Montreal ImpactRaheem Edwards09980901.0011.001
Seattle SoundersWaylon Francis09955401.4621.462
Columbus CrewMike Grella08848001.51.5
Portland TimbersJeremy Ebobisse06635401.5251.525
Columbus CrewGaston Sauro05536501.2331.233
New England RevolutionChris Tierney05530901.4561.456
Sporting Kansas CityGraham Smith05518002.52.5
Chicago FirePatrick McLain04422401.6071.607
DC UnitedPatrick Mullins04422501.61.6
New York CityKwame Awuah03314301.8881.888
Colorado RapidsKip Colvey02220800.8650.865
New York CityJames Sands02222300.8070.807
New York Red BullsCristian Casseres Jr.0119600.9380.938
New York Red BullsHassan Ndam01190011
Atlanta UnitedAndrew Wheeler-Omiunu00016000
Atlanta UnitedJosé Hernández00017000
Atlanta UnitedPaul Christensen00054000
Columbus CrewMohammed Abu00093000
DC UnitedChris Odoi-Atsem00012000
DC UnitedDane Kelly0003000
DC UnitedJared Jeffrey0002000
FC DallasJesús Ferreira0003000
Houston DynamoMac Steeves00026000
Los Angeles GalaxyAriel Lassiter00094000
New York CityCedric Hountondji0001000
New York Red BullsStefano Bonomo0001000
Portland TimbersModou Jadama00027000
Real Salt LakeLuke Mulholland0001000
Real Salt LakeNedum Onuoha0002000
Real Salt LakeTaylor Peay0001000
Seattle SoundersKim Kee-Hee000246000
Toronto FCAidan Daniels00012000
Columbus CrewHarrison Afful-137382700-0.0331.2331.267
Montreal ImpactSaphir Taider-143442672-0.0341.4481.482
Montreal ImpactRod Fanni-131322110-0.0431.3221.365
Columbus CrewPedro Santos-129302103-0.0431.2411.284
Los Angeles GalaxySebastian Lletget-129301705-0.0531.5311.584
Real Salt LakeJoao Plata-130311631-0.0551.6551.711
Portland TimbersJulio Cascante-128291639-0.0551.5381.592
Chicago FireBrandt Bronico-128291441-0.0621.7491.811
DC UnitedChris Durkin-127281413-0.0641.721.783
Chicago FireDiego Campos-120211034-0.0871.7411.828
FC DallasJacori Hayes-11617998-0.091.4431.533
Los Angeles FCJoao Moutinho-12021871-0.1032.0672.17
Atlanta UnitedGreg Garza-11415865-0.1041.4571.561
Toronto FCAshtone Morgan-11213833-0.1081.2971.405
Portland TimbersFanendo Adi-11213823-0.1091.3121.422
Colorado RapidsJoe Mason-11112759-0.1191.3041.423
Houston DynamoMemo Rodriguez-11011645-0.141.3951.535
Portland TimbersBill Tuiloma-11112622-0.1451.5921.736
Orlando CityStefano Pinho-11314595-0.1511.9662.118
Chicago FireGrant Lillard-189563-0.161.2791.439
New England RevolutionBrad Knighton-189540-0.1671.3331.5
Toronto FCDrew Moor-189479-0.1881.5031.691
Orlando CityEarl Edwards Jr.-1910392-0.232.0662.296
San Jose EarthquakesFatai Alashe-189353-0.2552.042.295
San Jose EarthquakesKevin Partida-178290-0.312.1722.483
DC UnitedSteve Clark-156270-0.3331.6672
Montreal ImpactShamit Shome-156249-0.3611.8072.169
Seattle SoundersTony Alfaro-123220-0.4090.8181.227
Los Angeles GalaxyBaggio Husidic-145206-0.4371.7482.184
Orlando CityCameron Lindley-145201-0.4481.7912.239
New England RevolutionBrian Wright-112199-0.4520.4520.905
Houston DynamoA.J. DeLaGarza-156180-0.52.53
Chicago FireChristian Dean-156178-0.5062.5283.034
FC DallasKris Reaves-112168-0.5360.5361.071
Colorado RapidsZac MacMath-112158-0.570.571.139
Atlanta UnitedSal Zizzo-112157-0.5730.5731.146
MinnesotaKevin Molino-134140-0.6431.9292.571
FC DallasAbel Aguilar-101131-0.68700.687
FC DallasPaxton Pomykal-101124-0.72600.726
Real Salt LakeAlfredo Ortuño-112119-0.7560.7561.513
Chicago FireRafael Ramos-112105-0.8570.8571.714
Philadelphia UnionAnthony Fontana-11299-0.9090.9091.818
Montreal ImpactMarco Donadel-10196-0.93800.938
New York Red BullsTommy Redding-13490-134
Seattle SoundersBryan Meredith-12390-123
Chicago FireMatt Polster-13489-1.0113.0344.045
Toronto FCJon Bakero-10180-1.12501.125
Orlando CityDillon Powers-10169-1.30401.304
Montreal ImpactMathieu Choiniere-11259-1.5251.5253.051
FC DallasEma Twumasi-10145-202
Colorado RapidsCaleb Calvert-10135-2.57102.571
Los Angeles FCCalum Mallace-11229-3.1033.1036.207
Los Angeles FCShaft Brewer Jr.-11229-3.1033.1036.207
Chicago FireYura Movsisyan-10128-3.21403.214
Toronto FCAlan Mariano Miño-10125-3.603.6
Columbus CrewGyasi Zardes-236382768-0.0651.1711.236
Real Salt LakeKyle Beckerman-245472531-0.0711.61.671
Los Angeles GalaxyOla Kamara-253552510-0.0721.91.972
Houston DynamoDarwin Ceren-234361768-0.1021.7311.833
Columbus CrewJosh Williams-219211395-0.1291.2261.355
Real Salt LakeMarcelo Silva-220221377-0.1311.3071.438
New England RevolutionJuan Agudelo-226281347-0.1341.7371.871
New England RevolutionBrandon Bye-219211290-0.141.3261.465
Colorado RapidsAxel Sjöberg-216181154-0.1561.2481.404
Houston DynamoKevin Garcia-21517935-0.1931.4441.636
Real Salt LakeSebastián Saucedo-21618929-0.1941.551.744
Philadelphia UnionIlsinho-21315913-0.1971.2811.479
Vancouver WhitecapsBrian Rowe-22022900-0.222.2
Portland TimbersDavid Guzman-21719892-0.2021.7151.917
Toronto FCJozy Altidore-21517877-0.2051.5391.745
Chicago FireAlan Gordon-21214799-0.2251.3521.577
San Jose EarthquakesYeferson Quintana-21719793-0.2271.9292.156
Real Salt LakeLuis Silva-2911721-0.251.1231.373
Seattle SoundersAlex Roldan-257702-0.2560.6410.897
Seattle SoundersMagnus Wolff Eikrem-257594-0.3030.7581.061
Sporting Kansas CityJaylin Lindsey-21012554-0.3251.6251.949
Columbus CrewJustin Meram-257535-0.3360.8411.178
New England RevolutionKrisztián Németh-21012466-0.3861.9312.318
Chicago FireStefan Cleveland-268450-0.41.21.6
DC UnitedJalen Robinson-257348-0.5171.2931.81
Vancouver WhitecapsErik Hurtado-246324-0.5561.1111.667
Los Angeles GalaxyTomas Hilliard-Arce-235304-0.5920.8881.48
Chicago FireDaniel Johnson-235261-0.691.0341.724
Houston DynamoEric Bird-213254-0.7090.3541.063
Orlando CityAdam Grinwis-202180-101
New England RevolutionCristhian Machado-202119-1.51301.513
Houston DynamoTyler Deric-22490-224
Los Angeles FCLuis Lopez-20290-202
Toronto FCBen Spencer-20282-2.19502.195
Sporting Kansas CityKharlton Belmar-20265-2.76902.769
Orlando CityPierre Da Silva-20249-3.67303.673
Orlando CityJosé Villarreal-20245-404
Montreal ImpactDominic Oduro-20232-5.62505.625
Real Salt LakeRicky Lopez-Espin-20222-8.18208.182
Portland TimbersVytautas Andriuskevicius-20221-8.57108.571
Real Salt LakeJusten Glad-350532820-0.0961.5961.691
Real Salt LakeBrooks Lennon-346492670-0.1011.5511.652
New England RevolutionCristian Penilla-343462636-0.1021.4681.571
Real Salt LakeDamir Kreilach-348512618-0.1031.651.753
New England RevolutionDiego Fagundez-341442486-0.1091.4841.593
New England RevolutionLuis Alberto Caicedo-341442423-0.1111.5231.634
New England RevolutionTeal Bunbury-341442431-0.1111.5181.629
Columbus CrewZack Steffen-330332430-0.1111.1111.222
New England RevolutionMatt Turner-339422340-0.1151.51.615
MinnesotaFrancisco Calvo-342452159-0.1251.7511.876
Toronto FCJustin Morrow-333361610-0.1681.8452.012
Montreal ImpactRudy Camacho-326291476-0.1831.5851.768
MinnesotaChristian Ramirez-328311384-0.1951.8212.016
Real Salt LakeSunny-322251336-0.2021.4821.684
Chicago FireJorge Corrales-322251293-0.2091.5311.74
MinnesotaCollen Warner-323261185-0.2281.7471.975
Toronto FCNicolas Hasler-31720947-0.2851.6161.901
Seattle SoundersJordan McCrary-31013889-0.3041.0121.316
Columbus CrewNiko Hansen-31417875-0.3091.441.749
DC UnitedNick DeLeon-31417875-0.3091.441.749
Vancouver WhitecapsNicolas Mezquida-31821864-0.3121.8752.188
Philadelphia UnionFabinho-3710692-0.390.911.301
Seattle SoundersRomán Torres-3912688-0.3921.1771.57
Vancouver WhitecapsJordon Mutch-31114647-0.4171.531.947
Columbus CrewHéctor Jiménez-3912639-0.4231.2681.69
Columbus CrewLuis Argudo-3912630-0.4291.2861.714
MinnesotaSam Nicholson-3710525-0.5141.21.714
San Jose EarthquakesFrancois Affolter-31013496-0.5441.8152.359
Chicago FireDrew Conner-336462-0.5840.5841.169
Philadelphia UnionFabian Herbers-347428-0.6310.8411.472
San Jose EarthquakesJoel Qwiberg-347379-0.7120.951.662
New York CityEloi Amagat-336336-0.8040.8041.607
Houston DynamoLuis Gil-336272-0.9930.9931.985
New England RevolutionGuillermo Hauche-336175-1.5431.5433.086
Seattle SoundersHenry Wingo-303144-1.87501.875
Seattle SoundersLamar Neagle-303110-2.45502.455
Montreal ImpactLouis Beland-Goyette-303109-2.47702.477
New England RevolutionZachary Herivaux-30394-2.87202.872
Portland TimbersVictor Arboleda-30331-8.7108.71
Los Angeles FCRodrigo Pacheco-30317-15.882015.882
Real Salt LakeNick Rimando-449532745-0.1311.6071.738
Columbus CrewMilton Valenzuela-428322377-0.1511.061.212
MinnesotaRasmus Schuller-445492367-0.1521.7111.863
Philadelphia UnionCJ Sapong-430342182-0.1651.2371.402
Chicago FireDax McCarty-434382079-0.1731.4721.645
Vancouver WhitecapsKei Kamara-438421987-0.1811.7211.902
Montreal ImpactKen Krolicki-421251589-0.2271.1891.416
New York CityJo Inge Berget-428321569-0.2291.6061.836
DC UnitedDavid Ousted-428321530-0.2351.6471.882
New England RevolutionAntonio Mlinar Delamea-423271426-0.2521.4521.704
Philadelphia UnionDavid Accam-417211213-0.2971.2611.558
Los Angeles GalaxyDaniel Steres-418221140-0.3161.4211.737
Toronto FCJay Chapman-41519875-0.4111.5431.954
New England RevolutionMichael Mancienne-4812720-0.511.5
Portland TimbersDairon Asprilla-41115598-0.6021.6562.258
Houston DynamoJared Watts-459535-0.6730.8411.514
San Jose EarthquakesTommy Thompson-4711452-0.7961.3942.19
Vancouver WhitecapsBernie Ibini-437422-0.8530.641.493
Seattle SoundersHandwalla Bwana-448415-0.8670.8671.735
Columbus CrewEduardo Sosa-4711385-0.9351.6362.571
Real Salt LakeDemar Phillips-448360-112
MinnesotaMason Toye-448340-1.0591.0592.118
Los Angeles FCAndre Horta-437292-1.2330.9252.158
Real Salt LakeAdam Henley-437260-1.3851.0382.423
Philadelphia UnionMatthew Real-415236-1.5250.3811.907
Real Salt LakeShawn Barry-426204-1.7650.8822.647
Toronto FCMitchell Taintor-41590-415
Montreal ImpactDaniel Lovitz-543482560-0.1761.5121.688
Real Salt LakeAlbert Rusnak-545502502-0.181.6191.799
Vancouver WhitecapsAlphonso Davies-544492244-0.2011.7651.965
Philadelphia UnionJack Elliott-518231430-0.3151.1331.448
Colorado RapidsEnzo Martinez-522271376-0.3271.4391.766
MinnesotaAlexi Gomez-522271322-0.341.4981.838
Vancouver WhitecapsAly Ghazal-521261267-0.3551.4921.847
Orlando CityLamine Sane-519241193-0.3771.4331.811
Los Angeles GalaxyRolf Feltscher-520251137-0.3961.5831.979
Chicago FireMo Adams-51318908-0.4961.2891.784
Toronto FCRyan Telfer-51318800-0.5621.4632.025
Chicago FireRaheem Edwards-51015800-0.5621.1251.688
Chicago FireLuis Solignac-51217702-0.6411.5382.179
Chicago FireNicolas Hasler-5914701-0.6421.1551.797
Montreal ImpactAnthony Jackson-Hamel-549580-0.7760.6211.397
Portland TimbersJake Gleeson-5914540-0.8331.52.333
Toronto FCJason Hernandez-51015533-0.8441.6892.533
Real Salt LakePablo Ruiz-5914516-0.8721.572.442
Colorado RapidsNiki Jackson-5712401-1.1221.5712.693
DC UnitedIan Harkes-5611352-1.2781.5342.812
Houston DynamoArturo Álvarez-5510337-1.3351.3352.671
Real Salt LakeDavid Horst-549312-1.4421.1542.596
San Jose EarthquakesJT Marcinkowski-549270-1.6671.3333
Orlando CityRichmond Laryea-516237-1.8990.382.278
Houston DynamoRonaldo Peña-527219-2.0550.8222.877
MinnesotaFrantz Pangop-505175-2.57102.571
MinnesotaHarrison Heath-505121-3.71903.719
Toronto FCJulian Dunn-516104-4.3270.8655.192
Portland TimbersTomas Conechny-50572-6.2506.25
Los Angeles GalaxyJorgen Skjelvik-652582583-0.2091.8122.021
Los Angeles GalaxyAshley Cole-653592506-0.2151.9032.119
Vancouver WhitecapsJake Nerwinski-636421942-0.2781.6681.946
New England RevolutionWilfried Zahibo-630361904-0.2841.4181.702
Colorado RapidsDominique Badji-620261343-0.4021.341.742
Vancouver WhitecapsDoneil Henry-619251080-0.51.5832.083
Los Angeles GalaxyServando Carrasco-615211001-0.5391.3491.888
Montreal ImpactVictor Cabrera-61521908-0.5951.4872.081
Seattle SoundersClint Dempsey-6713902-0.5990.6981.297
Colorado RapidsYannick Boli-6511678-0.7960.6641.46
MinnesotaMatthew Lampson-6814630-0.8571.1432
Vancouver WhitecapsAnthony Blondell-61218622-0.8681.7362.605
MinnesotaCarter Manley-6612502-1.0761.0762.151
MinnesotaFernando Bob-6612436-1.2391.2392.477
MinnesotaWyatt Omsberg-628353-1.530.512.04
Orlando CityDonny Toia-617238-2.2690.3782.647
San Jose EarthquakesChris Wehan-628183-2.9510.9843.934
Montreal ImpactEvan Bush-745522880-0.2191.4061.625
New England RevolutionAndrew Farrell-742492675-0.2361.4131.649
Chicago FireBastian Schweinsteiger-744512546-0.2471.5551.803
Columbus CrewWil Trapp-729362439-0.2581.071.328
Vancouver WhitecapsKendall Waston-735422038-0.3091.5461.855
Houston DynamoAdam Lundkvist-716231168-0.5391.2331.772
San Jose EarthquakesLuis Felipe-71724971-0.6491.5762.225
Montreal ImpactJeisson Vargas-71421871-0.7231.4472.17
Toronto FCAger Aketxe-71118732-0.8611.3522.213
Toronto FCTosaint Ricketts-71421596-1.0572.1143.171
MinnesotaCollin Martin-7512428-1.4721.0512.523
Portland TimbersMarco Farfan-7310425-1.4820.6352.118
Chicago FireNemanja Nikolic-839472291-0.3141.5321.846
Montreal ImpactAlejandro Silva-836442187-0.3291.4811.811
Montreal ImpactJukka Raitala-831392110-0.3411.3221.664
Orlando CityYoshi Yotun-833411790-0.4021.6592.061
Houston DynamoLeonardo-826341758-0.411.3311.741
Columbus CrewLalas Abubakar-819271748-0.4120.9781.39
Portland TimbersLawrence Olum-819271528-0.4711.1191.59
Vancouver WhitecapsBrek Shea-824321362-0.5291.5862.115
Toronto FCNick Hagglund-822301259-0.5721.5732.145
MinnesotaEric Miller-81422992-0.7261.271.996
Chicago FireJonathan Campbell-81422914-0.7881.3792.166
Chicago FireElliot Collier-81422904-0.7961.3942.19
MinnesotaTyrone Mears-81119883-0.8151.1211.937
Orlando CityChris Schuler-81422695-1.0361.8132.849
MinnesotaMaximiniano-8614576-1.250.9382.188
MinnesotaEthan Finlay-8614570-1.2630.9472.211
Orlando CityVictor Giro-8513418-1.7221.0772.799
MinnesotaAbu Danladi-8513410-1.7561.0982.854
Colorado RapidsMicheal Azira-819275-2.6180.3272.945
Montreal ImpactSamuel Piette-943522820-0.2871.3721.66
MinnesotaDarwin Quintero-940492216-0.3661.6251.99
Vancouver WhitecapsStefan Marinovic-929381890-0.4291.3811.81
Houston DynamoBoniek Garcia-932411883-0.431.5291.96
Vancouver WhitecapsJose Aja-923321422-0.571.4562.025
Toronto FCEriq Zavaleta-924331377-0.5881.5692.157
Vancouver WhitecapsEfraín Juárez-917261159-0.6991.322.019
MinnesotaJerome Thiesson-916251106-0.7321.3022.034
San Jose EarthquakesGuram Kashia-918271080-0.751.52.25
Colorado RapidsBismark Adjei-Boateng-913221056-0.7671.1081.875
Colorado RapidsMarlon Hairston-91221928-0.8731.1642.037
San Jose EarthquakesJahmir Hyka-91423915-0.8851.3772.262
MinnesotaAngelo Rodriguez-9817736-1.1010.9782.079
Orlando CityCarlos Ascues-9312607-1.3340.4451.779
Toronto FCLiam Fraser-9615525-1.5431.0292.571
MinnesotaMarc Burch-9110403-2.010.2232.233
Los Angeles GalaxyPerry Kitchen-1044542338-0.3851.6942.079
Chicago FireAleksandar Katai-1039492248-0.41.5611.962
Chicago FireRichard Sánchez-1037472206-0.4081.511.917
San Jose EarthquakesShea Salinas-1027371640-0.5491.4822.03
Chicago FireKevin Ellis-1023331537-0.5861.3471.932
Orlando CityCristian Higuita-1021311307-0.6891.4462.135
San Jose EarthquakesJimmy Ockford-101626995-0.9051.4472.352
Chicago FireTony Tchani-101323825-1.0911.4182.509
Toronto FCJordan Hamilton-101020803-1.1211.1212.242
Toronto FCClint Irwin-10919630-1.4291.2862.714
Los Angeles FCTristan Blackmon-10717492-1.8291.283.11
Chicago FireJohan Kappelhof-1140512514-0.3941.4321.826
San Jose EarthquakesJackson Yueill-1119301116-0.8871.5322.419
Orlando CityTony Rocha-111324818-1.211.432.641
Montreal ImpactMichael Petrasso-11718782-1.2660.8062.072
MinnesotaMiguel Ibarra-1245572550-0.4241.5882.012
San Jose EarthquakesChris Wondolowski-1235472109-0.5121.4942.006
Orlando CityShane O'Neill-121022848-1.2741.0612.335
Chicago FireBrandon Vincent-1341542647-0.4421.3941.836
MinnesotaBobby Shuttleworth-1338512250-0.521.522.04
San Jose EarthquakesHarold Cummings-1325381784-0.6561.2611.917
Colorado RapidsSam Nicholson-1318311521-0.7691.0651.834
Colorado RapidsGiles Barnes-13114523-2.2370.1722.409
MinnesotaIbson-1434482099-0.61.4582.058
Orlando CityWill Johnson-1427412033-0.621.1951.815
Orlando CityChris Mueller-1431451894-0.6651.4732.138
Colorado RapidsDeklan Wynne-1425391871-0.6731.2031.876
Colorado RapidsJohan Blomberg-1419331597-0.7891.0711.86
Vancouver WhitecapsMarcel de Jong-1419331380-0.9131.2392.152
Colorado RapidsKortne Ford-149231051-1.1990.7711.97
MinnesotaMichael Boxall-1545602700-0.51.52
Orlando CityDom Dwyer-1531461974-0.6841.4132.097
Orlando CityAmro Tarek-1527421575-0.8571.5432.4
Orlando CityJonathan Spector-158231060-1.2740.6791.953
San Jose EarthquakesAndrew Tarbell-1644602610-0.5521.5172.069
San Jose EarthquakesMagnus Eriksson-1644602463-0.5851.6082.192
San Jose EarthquakesAnibal Godoy-1634502168-0.6641.4112.076
Orlando CityMohamed El-Munir-1632481909-0.7541.5092.263
MinnesotaBrent Kallman-1630461805-0.7981.4962.294
Orlando CityJustin Meram-1618341273-1.1311.2732.404
San Jose EarthquakesDanny Hoesen-1736532318-0.661.3982.058
Vancouver WhitecapsFelipe-1734512107-0.7261.4522.178
Orlando CityScott Sutter-1717341297-1.181.182.359
Orlando CityRJ Allen-171229966-1.5841.1182.702
Colorado RapidsDillon Serna-1812301091-1.4850.992.475
Colorado RapidsJack McBean-1812301060-1.5281.0192.547
Orlando CityJosue Colman-1811291002-1.6170.9882.605
Colorado RapidsKellyn Acosta-18624860-1.8840.6282.512
San Jose EarthquakesValeri Qazaishvili-2045652708-0.6651.4962.16
San Jose EarthquakesNick Lima-2148692869-0.6591.5062.165
Colorado RapidsEdgar Castillo-2130512440-0.7751.1071.881
San Jose EarthquakesFlorian Jungwirth-2139602400-0.7881.4632.25
Colorado RapidsTim Howard-2433572720-0.7941.0921.886
Colorado RapidsJack Price-2432562660-0.8121.0831.895
Orlando CitySacha Kljestan-2531562252-0.9991.2392.238
Colorado RapidsDanny Wilson-2619451935-1.2090.8842.093
Orlando CityJoe Bendik-2731582218-1.0961.2582.353
Orlando CityOriol Rosell-2714411431-1.6980.8812.579
Colorado RapidsTommy Smith-2834622879-0.8751.0631.938

 

Playoffs probability and more

Philadelphia has decreased from a 56.2% to a 51.1% chance of making the playoffs.

Next is the distribution of Philadelphia’s points against the MLS East’s sixth seed in all the simulations.

The Union decreased from a 0.2% to a 0.1% chance of winning the MLS Cup.

 

Philadelphia’s chances of having a U.S. Open Cup win increased from 16.2% to 17.0%.

These odds include the semi-final and final draw scenarios.

Philadelphia increased from a 16.4% chance to a 17.0% chance of qualifying for the 2019 edition of the CONCACAF Champions League.

The following are Philadelphia’s odds at different prizes over time.

The following are the probabilities of each final playoffs placement for Philadelphia.

The following shows the summary of the simulations in an easy table format.

TeamConfptsWLTGFGAGDpowerRkpwrScrPlyfsMLSCupShldUSOCChmpCANChmpCCLQualCCLChmpconfRegSeasFinishregSeasFinishplyfFinish
Atlanta UnitedEast70.221.36.56.271.541.929.611.90510029.2700NA100NA1.31.33
New York Red BullsEast69.121.37.55.264.23529.221.81610028.4300NA59.501.71.73
FC DallasWest60.917.27.59.354.941.613.341.6651009.700NA9.701.53.54.2
Los Angeles FCWest59.4178.78.268.75117.831.68810010.500NA10.5NA2.24.34.5
Sporting Kansas CityWest5716.29.48.561.243.317.951.5831006.400NA100NA3.15.55.6
New York CityEast55.915.99.88.358.244.114.281.5441003.600NA8NA3.36.86.8
Seattle SoundersWest55.516.7125.350.337.412.971.5451004.200NA4.503.86.46.6
Portland TimbersWest54.515.19.69.353.848.8561.561993.400NA3.4NA4.57.67.4
Philadelphia UnionEast52.315.713.15.250.449.50.9101.471001.200NA1.2NA4.398.4
Columbus CrewEast51.814.110.59.342.443.3-0.9111.45198.11.300NA1.3NA4.8108.8
DC UnitedEast49.313.611.98.562.253.78.491.48484.31.400NA1.4NA5.811.610.1
Real Salt LakeWest48.613.812.97.354.357.6-3.3141.29257.10.100NA0.1NA6.512.211.7
Los Angeles GalaxyWest48.21311.79.365.564.11.3151.28432.10.300NA0.3NA6.912.712.6
Vancouver WhitecapsWest46.613.113.57.453.766-12.3161.22911.800NA00NA7.513.813.8
Montreal ImpactEast46.21415.84.248.555.5-7121.417.60.10NA00NA6.813.813.5
New England RevolutionEast40.69.812.911.350.454.5-4.2171.2070000NA0NA816.416.4
Minnesota UnitedWest38.311.719.13.349.169-19.8201.0430000NA0NA9.317.217.2
Houston DynamoWest37.39.7168.356.856.80181.194000100NA100NA9.717.917.9
Toronto FCEast35.89.817.86.360.166.7-6.6131.334000NA10010009.118.618.6
Chicago FireEast32.88.518.27.349.863.2-13.4191.1180000NA0NA9.919.919.9
Colorado RapidsWest28.87.520.26.336.366-29.7220.870000NA001121.421.4
Orlando CityEast27.97.821.84.443.875.9-32.2210.960000NA0NA10.921.521.5
San Jose EarthquakesWest22.34.721.18.25172.2-21.2230.810000NA0NA122323

Next is a table showing the difference between this forecast and the last forecast.

TeamConfptsWLTGFGAGDpowerRkpwrScrPlyfsMLSCupShldUSOCChmpCANChmpCCLQualCCLChmpconfRegSeasFinishregSeasFinishplyfFinish
Atlanta UnitedEast00000-0.10.100.0020-0.70.90NA0NA000.1
New York Red BullsEast00000-0.10.100.0110-0.2-0.90NA-1.50000
FC DallasWest-1.2-0.30.6-0.3-1.1-0.6-0.51-0.0260-0.700NA-0.700.20.20.1
Los Angeles FCWest0.70.2-0.1-0.21.50.41.1-10.0201.200NA1.2NA-0.3-0.4-0.2
Sporting Kansas CityWest0.10.1000000-0.0010-0.400NA0NA0.10.10.2
New York CityEast0000000.100.01300.100NA0.3NA00.20.1
Seattle SoundersWest0.90.3-0.2-0.12.202.200.0130.60.700NA0.70-0.2-0.5-0.3
Portland TimbersWest000000000.001-0.1000NA0NA0.10.20.1
Philadelphia UnionEast-0.100000.1-0.110.0060-0.400NA-0.4NA0.10.20.2
Columbus CrewEast0.10000.1-0.10.100.005-0.4-0.100NA-0.1NA0.10.20
DC UnitedEast1.30.5-0.3-0.2-0.7-1.20.4-10.03115.80.300NA0.3NA-0.3-0.9-1.1
Real Salt LakeWest000000000.012-0.9-0.100NA-0.1NA0.10.20.1
Los Angeles GalaxyWest0.10.1-0.100.2-0.10.200.0091.70.100NA0.1NA-0.10.10
Vancouver WhitecapsWest-0.1000000-10.004-1.300NA00NA00.20.1
Montreal ImpactEast0.10000.1000-0.005-15.400NA00NA0.10.20.5
New England RevolutionEast0.70.3-0.2-0.2-0.1-1.10.8-10.012-0.1000NA0NA-0.1-0.8-0.8
Minnesota UnitedWest-2.5-0.80.9-0.1-2.60.9-3.40-0.0780000NA0NA0.20.70.7
Houston DynamoWest-1.3-0.30.6-0.30.43.7-3.32-0.0470000NA0NA-0.10.20.2
Toronto FCEast-0.1-0.100-0.10.1-0.10-0.011000NA0000.1-0.1-0.1
Chicago FireEast-0.10000000-0.0060000NA0NA-0.1-0.1-0.1
Colorado RapidsWest2.50.9-0.8-0.10.8-2.53.3-10.060000NA000-0.4-0.4
Orlando CityEast-0.6-0.20.3-0.1-1-0.1-10-0.0050000NA0NA00.40.4
San Jose EarthquakesWest-0.10000001-0.0090000NA0NA000

The following shows the difficulty for each team’s remaining schedule. Higher values means an easier remaining schedule.

The following shows the expectations for upcoming Philadelphia matches:

Model Validation

The following shows SEBA’s model error compared with random guessing. To do this, we save forecasts for the entire season’s games for every forecast’s data, and update the error charts all the way through the season.

Lower error is better.

USL

Power Rankings

SEBA has Bethlehem improved from 19th to 15th.

Playoffs probability and more

Bethlehem increased from a 26.2% to a 40.0% chance of making the playoffs.

Bethlehem’s odds of winning the USL championship improved from 0.3% to 0.5%.

The following is Bethlehem’s odds at different prizes over time.

The following shows the probability of each post-playoff ranking finish:

The following are the simulation averages in an easy, combined format.

The following is the strength of remaining schedules for each team. Higher values mean an easier remaining schedule.

The following are the upcoming expectations for Bethlehem matches.

 

NWSL

The following are the projections for the 2018 NWSL season.

The following shows the remaining strength of schedule, as we project. Higher values represent easier remaining schedules.

 

 

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