SEBA Projections

MLS, USL, and NWSL projections through June 3

Below are the 2018 MLS season forecasts using data from games through June 3.  This does not include last night’s USOC matches.

Some key points up front:

  • Union playoff chances: The Union now have a 41.2% chance of making the MLS playoffs, up from 36.1%.
  • Bethlehem playoff chances: The Steel are up to a 75.5% chance to make the USL playoffs, up from 42.6%.
  • Largest movers: The Portland Timbers gained the biggest boost in performance expectations for MLS, and the Colorado Rapids the largest drop.  These changes were more motivated by the model’s changes than necessarily the results this past week.
  • Plus/minus: The two top players in the league, in terms of their teams’ goal differentials when they’re on the field, are Sporting Kansas City’s Dániel Sallói and the New York Red Bulls’ Sean Davis.  The top Philadelphia players for this stat are Marcus Epps and Mark McKenzie.
  • Model Changes: There were sizable model changes made to weighting scheme of each match’s performance.
    • A previous contributor to the weight of a match was the goal differential, being used to judge the certainty of the outcome.  This goal differential was transformed logarithmic-ally upon a thoughtful, but arbitrary scale, and ties were treated the same as a 2-goal-differential result. Going forward:
      • For matches where I have stats (MLS matches and USOC or CCL matches with MLS teams in them), a model is used to predict the W/L/T probabilities to determine the certainty/luck of the outcome given the stat-line.
      • I averaged the above model results by Goal-Differential and used this average certainty/luck as a substitute for matches where I don’t have said data.
      • This change will noticeably result in lower odds of ties, given that, as we know, ties are one goal for either side away from a different result, and will therefore likely have less obvious stat-lines pointing towards a draw with certainty.
    • Another contributor to the weight of a match is how similar the player-minutes-distribution of a match is to recent trends, so that clubs which overhaul their teams are no longer associated with previous results.
      • Previously I filled in this weight for matches without player data (those without MLS teams) by using the median value for those matches that do have player data.
        • However, this median value is considerably lower than last year’s, which is causing the model to differentiate less for USL and NWSL expectations, due to a lack of confidence is any of their match results.
        • Instead of this median value over all matches, it now uses the average value of these matches over the previous month.
        • This will cause a large shift for USL and NWSL projections in the magnitude of the differences between clubs.  I believe this is a better reflection of reality.
Interactive Charts

MLS forecasts

MLS forecasts over time

USL forecasts

USL forecasts over time

NWSL forecasts

NWSL forecasts over time

Philadelphia Updated Stats

This following chart shows the Union’s 2018 stats, as compared with typical winning and losing teams.

This following chart shows the Union’s stats in individual matches last week, as compared with typical winning and losing teams.

Power Rankings

The scores used for these rankings are the expected points-per-game for all league opponents both home and away.

SEBA has Philadelphia increasing from 13th to 11th.

Currently, Philadelphia’s performance expectation is set by the following distribution of minutes:

Philadelphia +/- for 2018

Philadelphia Plus/Minus

plyrNetGoalsPlusGoalsMinusGoalsMINSNetGoalsPer90PlusGoalsPer90MinusGoalsPer90
Cory Burke822149490.7592.0861.328
Raymon Gaddis5363118790.2391.7241.485
Alejandro Bedoya3383522020.1231.5531.431
Haris Medunjanin2333119900.091.4921.402
Keegan Rosenberry2373522500.081.481.4
Jay Simpson110382.3682.3680
Borek Dockal1313020050.0451.3921.347
Mark McKenzie02222117901.6791.679
Marcus Epps0101060901.4781.478
Derrick Jones-123171-0.5261.0531.579
Anthony Fontana-11299-0.9090.9091.818
Andre Blake-239412430-0.0741.4441.519
Auston Trusty-239412430-0.0741.4441.519
Jack Elliott-217191251-0.1441.2231.367
Fafa Picault-330331632-0.1651.6541.82
Ilsinho-31215884-0.3051.2221.527
Warren Creavalle-3811504-0.5361.4291.964
Fabian Herbers-336331-0.8160.8161.631
Matthew Real-415236-1.5250.3811.907
CJ Sapong-525301893-0.2381.1891.426
David Accam-615211113-0.4851.2131.698
Fabinho-6410481-1.1230.7481.871
Shows the goal differential for each player while they were on the field

 

MLS +/- for 2018
TeamplyrNetGoalsPlusGoalsMinusGoalsMINSNetGoalsPer90PlusGoalsPer90MinusGoalsPer90
Atlanta UnitedMichael Parkhurst27562923631.0282.1331.105
Atlanta UnitedBrad Guzan24543022840.9462.1281.182
New York Red BullsBradley Wright-Phillips23432020870.9921.8540.862
New York Red BullsTim Parker22411920700.9571.7830.826
Atlanta UnitedJosef Martinez22512922820.8682.0111.144
Atlanta UnitedJulian Gressel22533123150.8552.061.205
Atlanta UnitedMiguel Almiron22543223740.8342.0471.213
New York Red BullsTyler Adams21391819690.961.7830.823
Los Angeles FCSteven Beitashour21482720140.9382.1451.207
New York Red BullsSean Davis20422220640.8721.8310.959
New York Red BullsLuis Robles20462622500.81.841.04
Atlanta UnitedLeandro Gonzalez Pirez19503121470.7962.0961.299
Sporting Kansas CityMatt Besler18422421150.7661.7871.021
Atlanta UnitedHector Villalba17331613461.1372.2071.07
Atlanta UnitedFranco Escobar17351814251.0742.2111.137
Atlanta UnitedJeff Larentowicz17503322990.6661.9571.292
Sporting Kansas CityDániel Sallói16412519340.7451.9081.163
New York Red BullsKemar Lawrence16382219890.7241.7190.995
New York Red BullsAaron Long16422622660.6351.6681.033
Sporting Kansas CityGraham Zusi16493324300.5931.8151.222
Sporting Kansas CityIlie Sanchez16493324300.5931.8151.222
Sporting Kansas CityTim Melia16493324300.5931.8151.222
New York Red BullsMichael Murillo15291413950.9681.8710.903
Atlanta UnitedChris McCann15352014120.9562.2311.275
Sporting Kansas CityRoger Espinoza15453022240.6071.8211.214
New York CityAlexander Callens15493423900.5651.8451.28
New York Red BullsFlorian Valot14271311501.0962.1131.017
Sporting Kansas CityKhiry Shelton14251111581.0881.9430.855
Los Angeles FCLee Nguyen14291512620.9982.0681.07
Atlanta UnitedDarlington Nagbe14342014650.862.0891.229
Seattle SoundersNicolás Lodeiro14331917990.71.6510.951
New York CityJesus Medina14422818110.6962.0871.391
Los Angeles FCTyler Miller14544023400.5382.0771.538
Atlanta UnitedMikey Ambrose131967311.6012.3390.739
New York CityYangel Herrera13261310031.1672.3331.167
Atlanta UnitedEzequiel Barco13291614180.8251.8411.016
Los Angeles FCJordan Harvey13332015100.7751.9671.192
Los Angeles FCLatif Blessing13392616310.7172.1521.435
New York Red BullsAlejandro Romero Gamarra13372418940.6181.7581.14
FC DallasMichael Barrios13392619240.6081.8241.216
New York CityMaximiliano Moralez13513825910.4521.7721.32
Seattle SoundersRaúl Ruidíaz121646301.7142.2860.571
Sporting Kansas CityJimmy Medranda121977281.4842.3490.865
Portland TimbersDiego Chara12362418900.5711.7141.143
Los Angeles FCLaurent Ciman12443219800.54521.455
New York CitySean Johnson12463424300.4441.7041.259
Real Salt LakeAaron Herrera112097241.3672.4861.119
Real Salt LakeNick Besler11291810720.9242.4351.511
Seattle SoundersGustav Svensson11261515410.6421.5180.876
New York Red BullsDaniel Royer11342318170.5451.6841.139
New York CityAlexander Ring11423121750.4551.7381.283
FC DallasMauro Diaz101998071.1152.1191.004
Seattle SoundersOsvaldo Alonso10221211480.7841.7250.941
Seattle SoundersKim Kee-hee10261614780.6091.5830.974
New York CityEbenezer Ofori10322216240.5541.7731.219
Los Angeles FCWalker Zimmerman10392916910.5322.0761.543
Los Angeles FCCarlos Vela10372717570.5121.8951.383
Sporting Kansas CityIke Opara10403021430.421.681.26
Los Angeles FCBenny Feilhaber10504022850.3941.9691.575
Sporting Kansas CitySeth Sinovic9201110540.7691.7080.939
Seattle SoundersHarry Shipp9231411450.7071.8081.1
FC DallasReto Ziegler9382919610.4131.7441.331
Los Angeles FCDiego Rossi9433420020.4051.9331.528
Seattle SoundersChad Marshall9342519990.4051.5311.126
Houston DynamoAlberth Elis9403120460.3961.761.364
FC DallasMaximiliano Urruti9423321130.3831.7891.406
New York CityAnton Tinnerholm9423322470.361.6821.322
Seattle SoundersStefan Frei9332422500.361.320.96
FC DallasMatt Hedges9443523400.3461.6921.346
FC DallasReggie Cannon9453623810.341.7011.361
Atlanta UnitedKevin Kratz81684621.5583.1171.558
Philadelphia UnionCory Burke822149490.7592.0861.328
Portland TimbersAndy Polo8191111330.6351.5090.874
New York CityIsmael Tajouri-Shradi8271913220.5451.8381.293
New York CitySebastien Ibeagha8312315310.471.8221.352
FC DallasRoland Lamah8312316780.4291.6631.234
Seattle SoundersCristian Roldan8352723400.3081.3461.038
New York Red BullsAlex Muyl71699190.6861.5670.881
New England RevolutionKelyn Rowe719129880.6381.7311.093
Vancouver WhitecapsRussell Teibert7251810430.6042.1571.553
Sporting Kansas CityGerso Fernandes7251812420.5071.8121.304
Seattle SoundersKelvin Leerdam7201313420.4691.3410.872
Houston DynamoEric Alexander7312416170.391.7251.336
Portland TimbersAlvas Powell7312417400.3621.6031.241
Sporting Kansas CityJohnny Russell7312417380.3621.6051.243
Portland TimbersJeff Attinella7282117660.3571.4271.07
FC DallasCarlos Gruezo7373019680.321.6921.372
Portland TimbersSebastian Blanco7342720990.31.4581.158
New York CityJonathan Lewis6822192.4663.2880.822
Sporting Kansas CityDiego Rubio616105960.9062.4161.51
New York CityRodney Wallace61157890.6841.2550.57
Los Angeles FCAdama Diomande620147940.682.2671.587
DC UnitedKofi Opare616108050.6711.7891.118
FC DallasSantiago Mosquera6241810960.4931.9711.478
FC DallasJimmy Maurer6221611700.4621.6921.231
Toronto FCGregory van der Wiel6403417790.3042.0241.72
Houston DynamoRomell Quioto6342818590.291.6461.356
Portland TimbersDiego Valeri6393322810.2371.5391.302
Portland TimbersLarrys Mabiala6403422950.2351.5691.333
Portland TimbersZarek Valentin6403423680.2281.521.292
Los Angeles FCAaron Kovar5943051.4752.6561.18
Sporting Kansas CityCristian Lobato5833271.3762.2020.826
New York Red BullsKyle Duncan51053531.2752.551.275
FC DallasKellyn Acosta516116740.6682.1361.469
FC DallasAnton Nedyalkov515107700.5841.7531.169
Real Salt LakeDanilo Acosta518138960.5021.8081.306
DC UnitedWayne Rooney518139210.4891.7591.27
Toronto FCAuro5231810640.4231.9451.523
Vancouver WhitecapsCristian Techera5231811170.4031.8531.45
Los Angeles FCEduard Atuesta5272212020.3742.0221.647
New York CityMaxime Chanot5231813030.3451.5891.243
Seattle SoundersWill Bruin5221714390.3131.3761.063
Los Angeles GalaxyChris Pontius5353014860.3032.121.817
FC DallasVictor Ulloa5292415440.2911.691.399
Houston DynamoAdolfo Machado5302515790.2851.711.425
Los Angeles GalaxyMichael Ciani5373216040.2812.0761.796
Houston DynamoDaMarcus Beasley5363117000.2651.9061.641
Philadelphia UnionRaymon Gaddis5363118790.2391.7241.485
Columbus CrewJonathan Mensah5302518970.2371.4231.186
Real Salt LakeJefferson Savarino5474224030.1871.761.573
New York Red BullsBen Mines44090440
Seattle SoundersBrad Smith4622491.4462.1690.723
DC UnitedBill Hamid41065400.6671.6671
Columbus CrewRicardo Clark41175460.6591.8131.154
Los Angeles GalaxyGiovani dos Santos422188090.4452.4472.002
DC UnitedRussell Canouse415118130.4431.6611.218
Columbus CrewCristian Martinez41068400.4291.0710.643
Toronto FCVíctor Vázquez4252111240.322.0021.681
New York Red BullsConnor Lade4201612150.2961.4811.185
FC DallasJesse Gonzalez4252112600.2861.7861.5
Real Salt LakeJoao Plata4272312730.2831.9091.626
Portland TimbersCristhian Paredes4211712800.2811.4771.195
Seattle SoundersNouhou Tolo4201615280.2361.1780.942
Los Angeles FCMark-Anthony Kaye4332915820.2281.8771.65
New York CityBen Sweat4322818440.1951.5621.367
Columbus CrewArtur4343022050.1631.3881.224
Houston DynamoJuan David Cabezas330367.57.50
Atlanta UnitedAndrew Carleton341893.0344.0451.011
Columbus CrewAlex Crognale341972.7843.7110.928
Columbus CrewPatrick Mullins3741551.7424.0652.323
Portland TimbersJorge Villafaña3301701.5881.5880
Los Angeles GalaxyBradford Jamieson IV3852021.3373.5642.228
Los Angeles FCChristian Ramirez3412251.21.60.4
New York CitySaad Abdul-Salaam3632730.9891.9780.989
FC DallasDominique Badji31073180.8492.831.981
Sporting Kansas CityEmiliano Amor31073320.8132.7111.898
New York Red BullsVincent Bezecourt31073950.6842.2781.595
Colorado RapidsShkëlzen Gashi3964290.6291.8881.259
Toronto FCChris Mavinga31075000.541.81.26
FC DallasRyan Hollingshead314115870.462.1471.687
Houston DynamoPhilippe Senderos315126060.4462.2281.782
Portland TimbersLiam Ridgewell31077260.3721.240.868
Sporting Kansas CityFelipe Gutiérrez319169900.2731.7271.455
New York CityRonald Matarrita3201710090.2681.7841.516
Houston DynamoAlejandro Fuenmayor3282513580.1991.8561.657
Los Angeles GalaxyRomain Alessandrini3312813950.19421.806
New York CityDavid Villa3252213940.1941.6141.42
Houston DynamoAndrew Wenger3282514210.191.7731.583
Los Angeles GalaxyZlatan Ibrahimovic3393616030.1682.192.021
Columbus CrewPedro Santos3262317400.1551.3451.19
Toronto FCAlexander Bono3363318000.151.81.65
Houston DynamoMauro Manotas3393620110.1341.7451.611
Philadelphia UnionAlejandro Bedoya3383522020.1231.5531.431
Toronto FCAyo Akinola220247.57.50
Portland TimbersLucas Melano220286.4296.4290
Los Angeles GalaxySheanon Williams220394.6154.6150
Portland TimbersJeremy Ebobisse220832.1692.1690
DC UnitedBruno Miranda231862.0933.141.047
MinnesotaRomario Ibarra231921.9572.9350.978
Sporting Kansas CityGianluca Busio2201141.5791.5790
Portland TimbersSteve Clark2311241.4522.1770.726
Columbus CrewEdward Opoku2421261.4292.8571.429
New York Red BullsAndreas Ivan2201291.3951.3950
Sporting Kansas CityKrisztián Németh2201541.1691.1690
Montreal ImpactQuincy Amarikwa2311741.0341.5520.517
Los Angeles FCOmar Gaber2532540.7091.7721.063
New York Red BullsCarlos Rivas2752640.6822.3861.705
San Jose EarthquakesQuincy Amarikwa2532680.6721.6791.007
New York CityValentin Castellanos2422690.6691.3380.669
Montreal ImpactBacary Sagna2642700.66721.333
Sporting Kansas CityWan Kuzain Wan Kamal2643070.5861.7591.173
New York Red BullsAurélien Collin21083530.512.552.04
New York CityThomas McNamara2753700.4861.7031.216
FC DallasCristian Colman2974510.3991.7961.397
Atlanta UnitedEric Remedi21084630.3891.9441.555
New York Red BullsDerrick Etienne Jr.214127400.2431.7031.459
Vancouver WhitecapsAaron Maund216148100.2221.7781.556
Los Angeles FCDejan Jakovic223219370.1922.2092.017
Portland TimbersAndres Flores219179960.1811.7171.536
Real Salt LakeSunny2201810400.1731.7311.558
New York Red BullsMarc Rzatkowski2181611260.161.4391.279
Portland TimbersSamuel Armenteros2201812840.141.4021.262
Los Angeles GalaxyJonathan dos Santos2292713760.1311.8971.766
Houston DynamoDarwin Ceren2282614000.1291.81.671
Sporting Kansas CityYohan Croizet2252313930.1291.6151.486
Real Salt LakeCorey Baird2312916310.111.7111.6
Los Angeles GalaxyDave Romney2403818140.0991.9851.885
Houston DynamoTomás Martínez2343218300.0981.6721.574
Columbus CrewFederico Higuain2252318800.0961.1971.101
Toronto FCSebastian Giovinco2413919340.0931.9081.815
Philadelphia UnionHaris Medunjanin2333119900.091.4921.402
Toronto FCJonathan Osorio2424020720.0871.8241.737
Real Salt LakeKyle Beckerman2424021950.0821.7221.64
Philadelphia UnionKeegan Rosenberry2373522500.081.481.4
Real Salt LakeDamir Kreilach2454322870.0791.7711.692
New England RevolutionJalil Anibaba2403823130.0781.5561.479
Real Salt LakeBrooks Lennon2434123230.0771.6661.588
Real Salt LakeJusten Glad2474524600.0731.721.646
Colorado RapidsStefan Aigner110118.1828.1820
Montreal ImpactDavid Choiniere110127.57.50
Montreal ImpactMathieu Choiniere110263.4623.4620
Philadelphia UnionJay Simpson110382.3682.3680
Columbus CrewAdam Jahn110681.3241.3240
Chicago FireJon Bakero121751.22.41.2
New York Red BullsCristian Casseres Jr.110821.0981.0980
Los Angeles GalaxyJoão Pedro132851.0593.1762.118
Atlanta UnitedAlec Kann12190121
New England RevolutionBrad Knighton11090110
Sporting Kansas CityAndreu Fontas11090110
New York Red BullsEthan Kutler1211010.8911.7820.891
New York Red BullsBrian White1211260.7141.4290.714
Real Salt LakeAndrew Putna1211350.6671.3330.667
Los Angeles GalaxyEmrah Klimenta1101570.5730.5730
New York CityBrad Stuver1541800.52.52
Los Angeles GalaxyBaggio Husidic1431850.4861.9461.459
FC DallasPablo Aranguiz1211860.4840.9680.484
Atlanta UnitedRomario Williams1651910.4712.8272.356
Montreal ImpactMicheal Azira1542090.4312.1531.722
New York Red BullsRyan Meara1432700.3331.3331
Atlanta UnitedMiles Robinson1872710.3322.6572.325
Columbus CrewGaston Sauro1322750.3270.9820.655
Los Angeles FCDanilo Silva1433030.2971.1880.891
New York Red BullsFidel Escobar1543490.2581.2891.032
Columbus CrewJon Kempin1984500.21.81.6
Vancouver WhitecapsBrett Levis1765170.1741.2191.044
FC DallasTesho Akindele1875400.1671.3331.167
Seattle SoundersRomán Torres1985530.1631.4651.302
FC DallasMarquinhos Pedroso115146300.1432.1432
Seattle SoundersVíctor Rodríguez111106800.1321.4561.324
New England RevolutionGabriel Somi1191810420.0861.6411.555
Montreal ImpactMatteo Mancosu1171610860.0831.4091.326
New England RevolutionScott Caldwell1151411970.0751.1281.053
New England RevolutionClaude Dielna1242313340.0671.6191.552
DC UnitedPaul Arriola1313016650.0541.6761.622
DC UnitedJoseph Mora1333218030.051.6471.597
Houston DynamoJoe Willis1343318900.0481.6191.571
DC UnitedYamil Asad1363519060.0471.71.653
Philadelphia UnionBorek Dockal1313020050.0451.3921.347
Real Salt LakeNick Rimando1464523850.0381.7361.698
Columbus CrewHarrison Afful1353423400.0381.3461.308
Vancouver WhitecapsAlphonso Davies04141190501.9371.937
DC UnitedLuciano Acosta03838203401.6811.681
Montreal ImpactIgnacio Piatti03737232401.4331.433
Columbus CrewGyasi Zardes03434240801.2711.271
Vancouver WhitecapsKei Kamara03434162701.8811.881
DC UnitedOniel Fisher02929164201.591.59
Columbus CrewZack Steffen02626198001.1821.182
Columbus CrewMilton Valenzuela02525195501.1511.151
Philadelphia UnionMark McKenzie02222117901.6791.679
Portland TimbersJulio Cascante02222143701.3781.378
Montreal ImpactChris Duvall02020118901.5141.514
Real Salt LakeMarcelo Silva02020128701.3991.399
Vancouver WhitecapsAly Ghazal0191997801.7481.748
DC UnitedJunior Moreno01818107801.5031.503
FC DallasMaynor Figueroa0161695201.5131.513
Vancouver WhitecapsNicolas Mezquida0161667502.1332.133
Vancouver WhitecapsSean Franklin0131383301.4051.405
Toronto FCAshtone Morgan0121282901.3031.303
Philadelphia UnionMarcus Epps0101060901.4781.478
Houston DynamoChris Seitz09954001.51.5
Montreal ImpactRaheem Edwards09980901.0011.001
Seattle SoundersWaylon Francis09955401.4621.462
Columbus CrewMike Grella08845901.5691.569
Houston DynamoKevin Garcia07754101.1651.165
Houston DynamoMemo Rodriguez07752901.1911.191
Seattle SoundersJordy Delem06666000.8180.818
Toronto FCLucas Janson06629701.8181.818
New England RevolutionChris Tierney05530901.4561.456
Sporting Kansas CityGraham Smith05518002.52.5
Chicago FirePatrick McLain04422401.6071.607
DC UnitedPatrick Mullins04422501.61.6
Columbus CrewJustin Meram03319601.3781.378
New York CityKwame Awuah03314301.8881.888
Atlanta UnitedBrandon Vazquez0226902.6092.609
Colorado RapidsKip Colvey02220800.8650.865
Chicago FireMichael de Leeuw01110800.8330.833
Los Angeles FCShaft Brewer Jr.0112903.1033.103
New England RevolutionBrian Wright01114200.6340.634
New York Red BullsHassan Ndam01190011
Atlanta UnitedAndrew Wheeler-Omiunu00016000
Atlanta UnitedPaul Christensen00054000
Colorado RapidsCole Bassett00019000
Columbus CrewMohammed Abu00093000
DC UnitedChris Odoi-Atsem00012000
DC UnitedDane Kelly0003000
DC UnitedJared Jeffrey0002000
FC DallasAbel Aguilar00013000
FC DallasJesús Ferreira0003000
Houston DynamoMac Steeves00026000
Los Angeles GalaxyAriel Lassiter00093000
New England RevolutionIsaac Angking00019000
New York CityCedric Hountondji0001000
New York Red BullsStefano Bonomo0001000
Portland TimbersModou Jadama00027000
Real Salt LakeLuke Mulholland0001000
Real Salt LakeTaylor Peay0001000
San Jose EarthquakesDominic Oduro00010000
Seattle SoundersKim Kee-Hee000246000
Toronto FCAidan Daniels00012000
DC UnitedSteve Birnbaum-143442340-0.0381.6541.692
Real Salt LakeAlbert Rusnak-143442213-0.0411.7491.789
New England RevolutionDiego Fagundez-138392204-0.0411.5521.593
New England RevolutionCristian Penilla-136372191-0.0411.4791.52
New England RevolutionLuis Alberto Caicedo-134351982-0.0451.5441.589
MinnesotaFrancisco Calvo-135361799-0.051.7511.801
Vancouver WhitecapsYordy Reyna-134351556-0.0581.9672.024
Montreal ImpactRudy Camacho-121221206-0.0751.5671.642
Columbus CrewJosh Williams-116171154-0.0781.2481.326
Chicago FireDiego Campos-120211034-0.0871.7411.828
FC DallasJacori Hayes-11617998-0.091.4431.533
Colorado RapidsAxel Sjöberg-11415974-0.0921.2941.386
Orlando CityLamine Sane-11920923-0.0981.8531.95
Real Salt LakeSebastián Saucedo-11617905-0.0991.5911.691
Los Angeles FCMarco Ureña-12122883-0.1022.142.242
Los Angeles FCJoao Moutinho-12021871-0.1032.0672.17
DC UnitedUlises Segura-11617873-0.1031.6491.753
Atlanta UnitedGreg Garza-11415865-0.1041.4571.561
Portland TimbersFanendo Adi-11213823-0.1091.3121.422
Colorado RapidsJoe Mason-11112759-0.1191.3041.423
San Jose EarthquakesJahmir Hyka-11314723-0.1241.6181.743
San Jose EarthquakesGuram Kashia-11213720-0.1251.51.625
Seattle SoundersAlex Roldan-156695-0.1290.6470.777
San Jose EarthquakesLuis Felipe-11112688-0.1311.4391.57
Orlando CityStefano Pinho-11314584-0.1542.0032.158
Chicago FireGrant Lillard-189563-0.161.2791.439
Portland TimbersBill Tuiloma-11011554-0.1621.6251.787
Toronto FCDrew Moor-189479-0.1881.5031.691
Orlando CityEarl Edwards Jr.-1910392-0.232.0662.296
San Jose EarthquakesFatai Alashe-189353-0.2552.042.295
San Jose EarthquakesJoel Qwiberg-145298-0.3021.2081.51
San Jose EarthquakesKevin Partida-178290-0.312.1722.483
DC UnitedSteve Clark-156270-0.3331.6672
Montreal ImpactShamit Shome-156249-0.3611.8072.169
Orlando CityCarlos Ascues-134247-0.3641.0931.457
Seattle SoundersTony Alfaro-123220-0.4090.8181.227
Orlando CityCameron Lindley-145201-0.4481.7912.239
Los Angeles FCAndre Horta-134192-0.4691.4061.875
Chicago FireStefan Cleveland-123180-0.511.5
Chicago FireChristian Dean-156178-0.5062.5283.034
Philadelphia UnionDerrick Jones-123171-0.5261.0531.579
FC DallasKris Reaves-112168-0.5360.5361.071
Colorado RapidsZac MacMath-112158-0.570.571.139
Atlanta UnitedSal Zizzo-112157-0.5730.5731.146
MinnesotaKevin Molino-134140-0.6431.9292.571
Chicago FireDjordje Mihailovic-101125-0.7200.72
FC DallasPaxton Pomykal-101124-0.72600.726
Real Salt LakeAlfredo Ortuño-112119-0.7560.7561.513
Chicago FireRafael Ramos-112105-0.8570.8571.714
Philadelphia UnionAnthony Fontana-11299-0.9090.9091.818
Montreal ImpactMarco Donadel-10196-0.93800.938
New York Red BullsTommy Redding-13490-134
Seattle SoundersBryan Meredith-12390-123
Chicago FireMatt Polster-13489-1.0113.0344.045
Toronto FCJon Bakero-10180-1.12501.125
Orlando CityDillon Powers-10169-1.30401.304
FC DallasEma Twumasi-10145-202
Colorado RapidsCaleb Calvert-10135-2.57102.571
Los Angeles FCCalum Mallace-11229-3.1033.1036.207
Orlando CityPierre Da Silva-10129-3.10303.103
New England RevolutionZachary Herivaux-10125-3.603.6
Toronto FCAlan Mariano Miño-10125-3.603.6
Atlanta UnitedGeorge Bello-10114-6.42906.429
DC UnitedKevin Ellis-10111-8.18208.182
Philadelphia UnionAndre Blake-239412430-0.0741.4441.519
Philadelphia UnionAuston Trusty-239412430-0.0741.4441.519
Montreal ImpactSaphir Taider-235372315-0.0781.3611.438
Toronto FCMichael Bradley-243452227-0.0811.7381.819
New England RevolutionTeal Bunbury-234362052-0.0881.4911.579
Montreal ImpactRod Fanni-223251750-0.1031.1831.286
Vancouver WhitecapsJake Nerwinski-232341582-0.1141.821.934
Orlando CityYoshi Yotun-233351520-0.1181.9542.072
New York CityJo Inge Berget-227291407-0.1281.7271.855
Philadelphia UnionJack Elliott-217191251-0.1441.2231.367
Colorado RapidsEnzo Martinez-221231239-0.1451.5251.671
DC UnitedDarren Mattocks-225271228-0.1471.8321.979
New England RevolutionJuan Agudelo-221231141-0.1581.6561.814
New England RevolutionBrandon Bye-21517970-0.1861.3921.577
Vancouver WhitecapsBrian Rowe-22022900-0.222.2
San Jose EarthquakesYeferson Quintana-21719793-0.2271.9292.156
Chicago FireAlan Gordon-21214784-0.231.3781.607
Columbus CrewNiko Hansen-21214744-0.2421.4521.694
Vancouver WhitecapsDoneil Henry-21517720-0.251.8752.125
Real Salt LakeLuis Silva-2911721-0.251.1231.373
Toronto FCJozy Altidore-21012699-0.2581.2881.545
Seattle SoundersMagnus Wolff Eikrem-257594-0.3030.7581.061
Colorado RapidsMarlon Hairston-2911568-0.3171.4261.743
Sporting Kansas CityJaylin Lindsey-21012554-0.3251.6251.949
Columbus CrewHéctor Jiménez-279549-0.3281.1481.475
New England RevolutionKrisztián Németh-21012466-0.3861.9312.318
Chicago FireDrew Conner-235381-0.4720.7091.181
New England RevolutionMichael Mancienne-224360-0.50.51
Los Angeles GalaxyTomas Hilliard-Arce-235304-0.5920.8881.48
San Jose EarthquakesTommy Thompson-246289-0.6231.2461.869
Chicago FireDaniel Johnson-235251-0.7171.0761.793
DC UnitedJalen Robinson-246249-0.7231.4462.169
Houston DynamoArturo Álvarez-246239-0.7531.5062.259
Colorado RapidsNiki Jackson-268209-0.8612.5843.445
New York CityJames Sands-202156-1.15401.154
New York CityEloi Amagat-213152-1.1840.5921.776
Seattle SoundersHenry Wingo-202132-1.36401.364
New England RevolutionCristhian Machado-202119-1.51301.513
Los Angeles FCLuis Lopez-20290-202
Toronto FCBen Spencer-20282-2.19502.195
Sporting Kansas CityKharlton Belmar-20265-2.76902.769
Orlando CityJosé Villarreal-20245-404
Montreal ImpactDominic Oduro-20232-5.62505.625
Portland TimbersTomas Conechny-20227-6.66706.667
Real Salt LakeRicky Lopez-Espin-20222-8.18208.182
Portland TimbersVytautas Andriuskevicius-20221-8.57108.571
Los Angeles GalaxyDavid Bingham-351542520-0.1071.8211.929
Los Angeles GalaxyJorgen Skjelvik-351542520-0.1071.8211.929
New England RevolutionMatt Turner-339422340-0.1151.51.615
San Jose EarthquakesChris Wondolowski-331341774-0.1521.5731.725
Vancouver WhitecapsKendall Waston-331341678-0.1611.6631.824
DC UnitedZoltan Stieber-330331632-0.1651.6541.82
Philadelphia UnionFafa Picault-330331632-0.1651.6541.82
Toronto FCMarky Delgado-331341486-0.1821.8782.059
MinnesotaChristian Ramirez-328311384-0.1951.8212.016
DC UnitedChris Durkin-324271232-0.2191.7531.972
New England RevolutionAntonio Mlinar Delamea-319221156-0.2341.4791.713
Toronto FCNicolas Hasler-31720947-0.2851.6161.901
Philadelphia UnionIlsinho-31215884-0.3051.2221.527
Seattle SoundersJordan McCrary-31013878-0.3081.0251.333
MinnesotaSam Nicholson-3710525-0.5141.21.714
Philadelphia UnionWarren Creavalle-3811504-0.5361.4291.964
San Jose EarthquakesFrancois Affolter-31013496-0.5441.8152.359
MinnesotaMason Toye-347339-0.7961.0621.858
MinnesotaAngelo Rodriguez-336336-0.8040.8041.607
Philadelphia UnionFabian Herbers-336331-0.8160.8161.631
Vancouver WhitecapsErik Hurtado-336295-0.9150.9151.831
Columbus CrewEduardo Sosa-358274-0.9851.6422.628
Houston DynamoLuis Gil-336264-1.0231.0232.045
Houston DynamoEric Bird-303238-1.13401.134
Orlando CityRichmond Laryea-314154-1.7530.5842.338
Seattle SoundersLamar Neagle-303110-2.45502.455
Montreal ImpactLouis Beland-Goyette-303109-2.47702.477
MinnesotaHarrison Heath-30394-2.87202.872
Portland TimbersVictor Arboleda-30331-8.7108.71
Los Angeles FCRodrigo Pacheco-30317-15.882015.882
New England RevolutionAndrew Farrell-438422410-0.1491.4191.568
Columbus CrewWil Trapp-425292063-0.1751.0911.265
MinnesotaRasmus Schuller-438422045-0.1761.6721.848
MinnesotaDarwin Quintero-432361677-0.2151.7171.932
Montreal ImpactKen Krolicki-421251586-0.2271.1921.419
DC UnitedDavid Ousted-428321530-0.2351.6471.882
Chicago FireJorge Corrales-418221113-0.3231.4561.779
MinnesotaCollen Warner-421251108-0.3251.7062.031
DC UnitedNick DeLeon-41317836-0.4311.41.83
San Jose EarthquakesJackson Yueill-41418769-0.4681.6382.107
Los Angeles GalaxyEmmanuel Boateng-41519767-0.4691.762.229
Columbus CrewLuis Argudo-4812602-0.5981.1961.794
Portland TimbersDairon Asprilla-41115597-0.6031.6582.261
Vancouver WhitecapsJordon Mutch-4913576-0.6251.4062.031
MinnesotaMatthew Lampson-4812540-0.6671.3332
Real Salt LakePablo Ruiz-4913492-0.7321.6462.378
Vancouver WhitecapsBernie Ibini-437422-0.8530.641.493
Seattle SoundersHandwalla Bwana-437392-0.9180.6891.607
Real Salt LakeDemar Phillips-448360-112
Colorado RapidsGiles Barnes-404283-1.27201.272
Real Salt LakeAdam Henley-437260-1.3851.0382.423
Philadelphia UnionMatthew Real-415236-1.5250.3811.907
Real Salt LakeShawn Barry-426203-1.7730.8872.66
MinnesotaMaximiniano-404147-2.44902.449
Houston DynamoRonaldo Peña-415145-2.4830.6213.103
MinnesotaFrantz Pangop-404135-2.66702.667
Toronto FCMitchell Taintor-41590-415
Philadelphia UnionCJ Sapong-525301893-0.2381.1891.426
New England RevolutionWilfried Zahibo-528331726-0.2611.461.721
Vancouver WhitecapsStefan Marinovic-525301530-0.2941.4711.765
San Jose EarthquakesShea Salinas-520251361-0.3311.3231.653
Portland TimbersLawrence Olum-518231355-0.3321.1961.528
Toronto FCJustin Morrow-523281250-0.361.6562.016
Los Angeles GalaxyServando Carrasco-51621984-0.4571.4631.921
Chicago FireMo Adams-51318908-0.4961.2891.784
Montreal ImpactJeisson Vargas-51419845-0.5331.4912.024
Toronto FCJay Chapman-51318837-0.5381.3981.935
Toronto FCRyan Telfer-51318800-0.5621.4632.025
Chicago FireLuis Solignac-51217702-0.6411.5382.179
Portland TimbersDavid Guzman-5813615-0.7321.1711.902
Toronto FCTosaint Ricketts-51419554-0.8122.2743.087
Portland TimbersJake Gleeson-5914540-0.8331.52.333
Toronto FCJason Hernandez-51015533-0.8441.6892.533
Houston DynamoJared Watts-538479-0.9390.5641.503
MinnesotaCarter Manley-5510426-1.0561.0562.113
DC UnitedIan Harkes-5611352-1.2781.5342.812
Real Salt LakeDavid Horst-549312-1.4421.1542.596
MinnesotaWyatt Omsberg-505173-2.60102.601
Toronto FCJulian Dunn-516104-4.3270.8655.192
Montreal ImpactDaniel Lovitz-635412200-0.2451.4321.677
Los Angeles GalaxyOla Kamara-643492150-0.2511.82.051
Houston DynamoLeonardo-623291650-0.3271.2551.582
Houston DynamoBoniek Garcia-626321587-0.341.4741.815
Colorado RapidsDominique Badji-620261343-0.4021.341.742
MinnesotaAlexi Gomez-619251122-0.4811.5242.005
Philadelphia UnionDavid Accam-615211113-0.4851.2131.698
Chicago FireBrandt Bronico-618241036-0.5211.5642.085
MinnesotaJerome Thiesson-61420957-0.5641.3171.881
Montreal ImpactVictor Cabrera-61521908-0.5951.4872.081
Seattle SoundersClint Dempsey-6713902-0.5990.6981.297
MinnesotaEric Miller-61117801-0.6741.2361.91
Orlando CityShane O'Neill-61016623-0.8671.4452.311
Vancouver WhitecapsAnthony Blondell-61218622-0.8681.7362.605
Chicago FireRaheem Edwards-6410490-1.1020.7351.837
Philadelphia UnionFabinho-6410481-1.1230.7481.871
Chicago FireNicolas Hasler-639418-1.2920.6461.938
MinnesotaAbu Danladi-6410308-1.7531.1692.922
Orlando CityDonny Toia-617238-2.2690.3782.647
MinnesotaMarc Burch-606223-2.42202.422
San Jose EarthquakesChris Wehan-628183-2.9510.9843.934
Montreal ImpactAlejandro Silva-728351833-0.3441.3751.718
Chicago FireDax McCarty-724311629-0.3871.3261.713
DC UnitedFrederic Brillant-727341545-0.4081.5731.981
Columbus CrewLalas Abubakar-717241513-0.4161.0111.428
Los Angeles GalaxySebastian Lletget-722291436-0.4391.3791.818
San Jose EarthquakesHarold Cummings-719261424-0.4421.2011.643
Vancouver WhitecapsBrek Shea-722291173-0.5371.6882.225
Houston DynamoAdam Lundkvist-71017972-0.6480.9261.574
Colorado RapidsBismark Adjei-Boateng-71118823-0.7651.2031.968
Toronto FCAger Aketxe-71118732-0.8611.3522.213
Montreal ImpactAnthony Jackson-Hamel-7411570-1.1050.6321.737
Colorado RapidsYannick Boli-7411563-1.1190.6391.758
Colorado RapidsKellyn Acosta-7512500-1.260.92.16
MinnesotaCollin Martin-7512428-1.4721.0512.523
Portland TimbersMarco Farfan-7310425-1.4820.6352.118
Montreal ImpactEvan Bush-837452520-0.2861.3211.607
San Jose EarthquakesMagnus Eriksson-839472131-0.3381.6471.985
MinnesotaMiguel Ibarra-837452038-0.3531.6341.987
San Jose EarthquakesAnibal Godoy-830381832-0.3931.4741.867
Orlando CityChris Mueller-831391705-0.4221.6362.059
Colorado RapidsJohan Blomberg-818261435-0.5021.1291.631
Toronto FCNick Hagglund-817251059-0.681.4452.125
Chicago FireJonathan Campbell-81422910-0.7911.3852.176
San Jose EarthquakesJimmy Ockford-81523905-0.7961.4922.287
Chicago FireElliot Collier-81422904-0.7961.3942.19
MinnesotaTyrone Mears-81119883-0.8151.1211.937
Orlando CityChris Schuler-81422695-1.0361.8132.849
MinnesotaEthan Finlay-8614570-1.2630.9472.211
Orlando CityVictor Giro-8513418-1.7221.0772.799
Colorado RapidsMicheal Azira-819275-2.6180.3272.945
San Jose EarthquakesValeri Qazaishvili-940492311-0.351.5581.908
Los Angeles GalaxyPerry Kitchen-941502249-0.361.6412.001
Orlando CityDom Dwyer-931401704-0.4751.6372.113
Vancouver WhitecapsJose Aja-923321422-0.571.4562.025
Vancouver WhitecapsEfraín Juárez-917261159-0.6991.322.019
Orlando CityScott Sutter-91726937-0.8641.6332.497
Los Angeles GalaxyRolf Feltscher-91120867-0.9341.1422.076
Orlando CityTony Rocha-91322728-1.1131.6072.72
Colorado RapidsDillon Serna-9918641-1.2641.2642.527
Toronto FCLiam Fraser-9615525-1.5431.0292.571
Montreal ImpactSamuel Piette-1035452460-0.3661.281.646
Los Angeles GalaxyAshley Cole-1043532146-0.4191.8032.223
Chicago FireBastian Schweinsteiger-1034442097-0.4291.4591.888
MinnesotaBobby Shuttleworth-1030401800-0.51.52
Orlando CityWill Johnson-1027371777-0.5061.3671.874
Orlando CityMohamed El-Munir-1032421639-0.5491.7572.306
Chicago FireKevin Ellis-1023331537-0.5861.3471.932
Colorado RapidsSam Nicholson-1018281476-0.611.0981.707
Orlando CityCristian Higuita-1021311272-0.7081.4862.193
Toronto FCEriq Zavaleta-1019291272-0.7081.3442.052
Colorado RapidsKortne Ford-10919916-0.9830.8841.867
Los Angeles GalaxyDaniel Steres-101121870-1.0341.1382.172
Chicago FireTony Tchani-101323825-1.0911.4182.509
Toronto FCJordan Hamilton-101020803-1.1211.1212.242
Toronto FCClint Irwin-10919630-1.4291.2862.714
Los Angeles FCTristan Blackmon-10717492-1.8291.283.11
San Jose EarthquakesAndrew Tarbell-1141522430-0.4071.5191.926
San Jose EarthquakesNick Lima-1141522419-0.4091.5251.935
MinnesotaMichael Boxall-1138492250-0.441.521.96
Chicago FireAleksandar Katai-1131421873-0.5291.492.018
Vancouver WhitecapsMarcel de Jong-1119301290-0.7671.3262.093
MinnesotaBrent Kallman-1122331265-0.7831.5652.348
Orlando CityJonathan Spector-11819880-1.1250.8181.943
Montreal ImpactMichael Petrasso-11718782-1.2660.8062.072
San Jose EarthquakesFlorian Jungwirth-1237492136-0.5061.5592.065
MinnesotaIbson-1234462054-0.5261.492.016
Montreal ImpactJukka Raitala-1227392001-0.541.2141.754
Chicago FireNemanja Nikolic-1229411877-0.5751.3911.966
Colorado RapidsDeklan Wynne-1222341685-0.6411.1751.816
Orlando CityJosue Colman-131124833-1.4051.1882.593
Chicago FireJohan Kappelhof-1430442064-0.611.3081.919
Chicago FireRichard Sánchez-1431452026-0.6221.3771.999
Colorado RapidsTim Howard-1530452270-0.5951.1891.784
Colorado RapidsEdgar Castillo-1530452215-0.6091.2191.828
Colorado RapidsJack Price-1529442210-0.6111.1811.792
Orlando CityAmro Tarek-1527421575-0.8571.5432.4
Orlando CityRJ Allen-151227876-1.5411.2332.774
Chicago FireBrandon Vincent-1631472197-0.6551.271.925
San Jose EarthquakesDanny Hoesen-1631472123-0.6781.3141.992
Vancouver WhitecapsFelipe-1634502077-0.6931.4732.167
Orlando CityJustin Meram-1618341273-1.1311.2732.404
Colorado RapidsJack McBean-1812301060-1.5281.0192.547
Colorado RapidsTommy Smith-1931502430-0.7041.1481.852
Orlando CitySacha Kljestan-1931501980-0.8641.4092.273
Orlando CityJoe Bendik-2131522038-0.9271.3692.296
Colorado RapidsDanny Wilson-2118391755-1.0770.9232
Orlando CityOriol Rosell-2314371251-1.6551.0072.662

 

Playoffs probability and more

Philadelphia has increased from a 36.1% to a 41.2% chance of making the playoffs.

Next is the distribution of Philadelphia’s points against the MLS East’s sixth seed in all the simulations.

The Union decreased from a 0.2% to a 0.0% chance of winning the Supporters’ Shield.

 

The Union decreased from a 1.3% to a 0.4% chance of winning the MLS Cup.

 

Philadelphia’s chances of having a U.S. Open Cup win decreased from 4.8% to 4.6%.

The 2019 CONCACAF Champions League qualification from the U.S. was supposed to be the 2017 & 2018 winners of the U.S. Open Cup and the MLS Cup. This is why Kansas City has already qualified. However, since Toronto (not eligible for a U.S. qualification slot) won the MLS Cup, that slot (and any other future Canadian or Kansas City wins) will be given to the club with the most regular season points over both 2017 and 2018.

Philadelphia decreased from a 6.0% chance to a 5.0% chance of qualifying for the 2019 edition of the CONCACAF Champions League.

The following are Philadelphia’s odds at different prizes over time.

The following are the probabilities of each final playoffs placement for Philadelphia.

The following shows the summary of the simulations in an easy table format.

TeamConfptsWLTGFGAGDpowerRkpwrScrPlyfsMLSCupShldUSOCChmpCANChmpCCLQualCCLChmpconfRegSeasFinishregSeasFinishplyfFinish
Atlanta UnitedEast69.520.867.271.141.130.111.90410029.356.20NA90NA1.51.63.1
New York Red BullsEast67.820.98.1565.635.929.721.81910028.138.80NA3401.71.93.2
New York CityEast6318.78.3763.944.619.231.69510092.90NA51.1NA2.83.75.2
FC DallasWest61.617.87.98.455.344.211.141.64899.97.61.40NA7.701.94.54.8
Sporting Kansas CityWest59.817.69.37.164.444.519.951.62999.59.20.70NA100NA2.35.14.8
Los Angeles FCWest57.616.49.38.367.754.513.261.6198.86.300NA6.3NA3.16.25.8
Seattle SoundersWest54.816.311.8647.336.510.871.56493.23.800NA4.404.17.67.1
Portland TimbersWest53.61510.48.752.649.92.691.50382.62.200NA2.2NA4.98.78.5
Columbus CrewEast53.415.110.8844.542.42.181.54299.32.400NA2.8NA4.38.77.7
Real Salt LakeWest51.115.113.15.853.556.3-2.8141.33671.50.400NA0.4NA5.79.910.1
Vancouver WhitecapsWest48.913.512.18.35765.7-8.7131.38636.50.30NA00NA6.711.511.9
Philadelphia UnionEast48.114.815.53.747.253.4-6.2111.41189.20.4036.1NA36.4NA5.311.610.4
Los Angeles GalaxyWest46.812.612.39.261.362.1-0.7151.26317.80.100NA0.1NA7.412.713.2
DC UnitedEast4612.713.57.860.3555.3121.41170.70.800NA0.8NA61311.6
Montreal ImpactEast41.112.517.83.742.657.7-15.1161.18722.100NA00NA7.415.615.1
Toronto FCEast40.110.915.77.462.763.7-0.9101.43113.70.10NA10010007.816.215.9
New England RevolutionEast38.89.814.99.352.559-6.6181.0744.6000NA0NA8.417.217.1
Minnesota UnitedWest37.711.619.62.849.266.8-17.6191.0480.2000NA0NA9.317.317.4
Houston DynamoWest36.59.416.38.355.254.90.3171.08500063.9NA63.9NA9.718.218.2
Orlando CityEast32.19.821.52.750.877.9-27.2201.0330.2000NA0NA10.120.120.1
Chicago FireEast30.97.9197.147.466.4-18.9211.0260000NA0NA10.520.820.8
Colorado RapidsWest29.97.619.37.138.863.4-24.6220.9270000NA001121.321.3
San Jose EarthquakesWest24.85.119.39.649.164.3-15.1230.8890000NA0NA11.922.722.7

Next is a table showing the difference between this forecast and the last forecast.

TeamConfptsWLTGFGAGDpowerRkpwrScrPlyfsMLSCupShldUSOCChmpCANChmpCCLQualCCLChmpconfRegSeasFinishregSeasFinishplyfFinish
Atlanta UnitedEast69.520.867.271.141.130.111.90410029.356.20NA90NA1.51.63.1
New York Red BullsEast67.820.98.1565.635.929.721.81910028.138.80NA3401.71.93.2
New York CityEast6318.78.3763.944.619.231.69510092.90NA51.1NA2.83.75.2
FC DallasWest61.617.87.98.455.344.211.141.64899.97.61.40NA7.701.94.54.8
Sporting Kansas CityWest59.817.69.37.164.444.519.951.62999.59.20.70NA100NA2.35.14.8
Los Angeles FCWest57.616.49.38.367.754.513.261.6198.86.300NA6.3NA3.16.25.8
Seattle SoundersWest54.816.311.8647.336.510.871.56493.23.800NA4.404.17.67.1
Portland TimbersWest53.61510.48.752.649.92.691.50382.62.200NA2.2NA4.98.78.5
Columbus CrewEast53.415.110.8844.542.42.181.54299.32.400NA2.8NA4.38.77.7
Real Salt LakeWest51.115.113.15.853.556.3-2.8141.33671.50.400NA0.4NA5.79.910.1
Vancouver WhitecapsWest48.913.512.18.35765.7-8.7131.38636.50.30NA00NA6.711.511.9
Philadelphia UnionEast48.114.815.53.747.253.4-6.2111.41189.20.4036.1NA36.4NA5.311.610.4
Los Angeles GalaxyWest46.812.612.39.261.362.1-0.7151.26317.80.100NA0.1NA7.412.713.2
DC UnitedEast4612.713.57.860.3555.3121.41170.70.800NA0.8NA61311.6
Montreal ImpactEast41.112.517.83.742.657.7-15.1161.18722.100NA00NA7.415.615.1
Toronto FCEast40.110.915.77.462.763.7-0.9101.43113.70.10NA10010007.816.215.9
New England RevolutionEast38.89.814.99.352.559-6.6181.0744.6000NA0NA8.417.217.1
Minnesota UnitedWest37.711.619.62.849.266.8-17.6191.0480.2000NA0NA9.317.317.4
Houston DynamoWest36.59.416.38.355.254.90.3171.08500063.9NA63.9NA9.718.218.2
Orlando CityEast32.19.821.52.750.877.9-27.2201.0330.2000NA0NA10.120.120.1
Chicago FireEast30.97.9197.147.466.4-18.9211.0260000NA0NA10.520.820.8
Colorado RapidsWest29.97.619.37.138.863.4-24.6220.9270000NA001121.321.3
San Jose EarthquakesWest24.85.119.39.649.164.3-15.1230.8890000NA0NA11.922.722.7

The following shows the difficulty for each team’s remaining schedule. Higher values means an easier remaining schedule.

The following shows the expectations for upcoming Philadelphia matches:

Model Validation

The following shows SEBA’s model error compared with random guessing. To do this, we save forecasts for the entire season’s games for every forecast’s data, and update the error charts all the way through the season.

Lower error is better.

USL

Power Rankings

SEBA has Bethlehem increasing from 17th to 12th.

Playoffs probability and more

Bethlehem increased from a 42.6% to a 75.5% chance of making the playoffs.

Bethlehem decreased from a 0.4% to a 0.1% chance of claiming the USL regular season title.

Bethlehem’s odds of winning the USL championship decreased from 2.1% to 1.7%.

The following is Bethlehem’s odds at different prizes over time.

The following shows the probability of each post-playoff ranking finish:

The following are the simulation averages in an easy, combined format.

The following is the strength of remaining schedules for each team. Higher values mean an easier remaining schedule.

The following are the upcoming expectations for Bethlehem matches.

 

NWSL

The following are the projections for the 2018 NWSL season.

The following shows the remaining strength of schedule, as we project. Higher values represent easier remaining schedules.

 

 

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