SEBA Projections

Updated SEBA international forecasts through July 3

Below are the current forecasts using data from matches through July 3, 2017.

Gold Cup

The following shows the Gold Cup champion forecast. The USA’s odds of winning the Gold Cup have increased from 34.53% to 36.50%.

The tournament begins on Friday.

The following shows the probabilities of teams advancing through the group stage of the Gold Cup. The USA’s chances increased from 97.45% to 98.92% of advancing through the group stage.

The following shows the probabilities of the USA’s quarterfinal opponent.

The following shows the probabilities of teams advancing through the quarterfinal. The USA increased chances from 71.83% to 75.12% in advancing through the quarterfinal.

The following shows the probabilities of the USA’s semifinal opponent.

The following shows the probabilities of each team advancing through the semifinal. The USA has increased from 50.82% to 53.84% in chances of advancing through the semifinal.

The following shows the probabilities of USA’s final opponent.

 Hexagonal Power Rankings

The “Power Rankings” we concoct are the actual “strength” of the team according to competitive expectations. The value represented on the X-Axis is the average amount of points we expect that team to receive when playing against every national team that participated in the previous World Cup on neutral territory:

The following chart shows the average points bonus for a particular nation’s home field advantage. This is important in explaining why teams may seem to have favorable odds to qualify even when ranked lower.

World Cup Qualification

The US’s chances of qualifying for the World Cup have increased from 92.93% to 94.70% from the last published forecast.

The next chart shows the probabilities of each of the USA’s potential Hex finishing spots.

The following chart shows the likelihood of the AFC team for the inter-confederation match-up (4th place CONCACAF vs. 5th place AFC).

The following chart shows the “Snub Index.” If the World Cup were to be a tournament for the 32 truly-top teams in the world (at least according to SEBA), then this chart is sorted by how damaged the top 32 teams’ chances are in qualifying for the World Cup. If they have already qualified then they disappear from this chart.

On the other side, this chart shows the nations outside of the top 32 who, perhaps unfairly, benefit from an imperfect qualification system and are ranked by their benefit.

The next charts show the probabilities of other confederations qualifying for the World Cup.

World Cup 2018

For the last World Cup, the October 2013 rankings were deemed ‘final’ before the World Cup draw, so I’m now assuming October 2017 are the rankings to shoot for.  also don’t have the forecast system perfectly aligned with reality, although it is quite similar. I have not built in the different point outcomes for PK-wins/losses in my FIFA ranking projections, and I obviously do not have a mechanism for forecasting currently-unscheduled friendlies. However, I have forecasted every scheduled tournament between now and October.

Below shows the simulated ranks for the USA. Summary statistics are below the chart. USA’s most common forecasted rank is 22, but could go as low as 14 and as high as 53. USA’s current rank is 23.

Below is the probability of obtaining Pot 1 status. In the table, we also include the team’s qualification probability (if they don’t qualify, they can’t be in Pot 1), their current FIFA rank, and their confederation for helpful information.

The following then manages to forecast the 2018 World Cup. Again, we accompany the odds of victory with qualification probability to help understand why some teams may be lower than expected. The USMNT have decreased from 0.76% to a 0.64% chance of winning the World Cup.

The following shows the USA’s most probable group stage Opponents.

The following shows the various odds of each national team progressing out of the Group Stage.  USA has decreased from 36.07% to 35.08% of making it through the group stage of the World Cup.

The following shows the probabilities of teams advancing through the Round of 16. The USA remains at 14.74% in their chances of making it through the Round of 16.

The following shows the probabilities of teams advancing through the quarterfinal. USA has increased chances from 5.97% to 6.28% of making it through the quarterfinal.

The following shows the probabilities of teams advancing through the semifinal. USA has increased from 2.20% to 2.38% in chances of making it through the semifinal.

Other Tournaments

 

FIFA Rankings Comparison

For a discussion on how the FIFA rankings system differs from SEBA’s, check out the article from 3/28/2017.

The following shows, according to SEBA, the top-10 overrated teams to the left and the top-10 underrated teams to the right.

Scheduled USA Matches

Finally, the following shows the probabilities of results for upcoming USA matches.

 

2 Comments

  1. Andy Muenz says:

    Thanks, as always, Chris. Hoping Canada makes it through to the quarterfinals so Montreal will be missing some players on the 19th.
    .
    Of course new FIFA rankings came out today and the US dropped 12 spots there.

    • Chris Sherman says:

      Ah, I knew those jerks would update the rankings right after I posted them.

      I wouldn’t worry too much about the drop in rankings. The Gold Cup gets a high ‘Importantance’ multiplier on ranking points, so next month we should see a reversal.

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